Tebbutt, Niall C

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

Abstract Background We evaluated the time to progression (TTP) and survival outcomes of second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer among adults aged 70 years and older compared with younger adults following progression on first-line clinical trials. Methods Associations between clinical and disease characteristics, time to initial progression, and rate of receipt of second-line therapy were evaluated. TTP and overall survival (OS) were compared between older and younger adults in first- and second-line trials by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, number of metastatic sites and presence of metastasis in the lung, liver, or peritoneum. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Older adults comprised 16.4% of patients on first-line trials (870 total older adults aged >70 years; 4419 total younger adults aged ≤70 years, on first-line trials). Older adults and those with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status >0 were less likely to receive second-line therapy than younger adults. Odds of receiving second-line therapy decreased by 11% for each additional decade of life in multivariable analysis (odds ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 1.21, P = .01). Older and younger adults enrolled in second-line trials experienced similar median TTP and median OS (median TTP = 5.1 vs 5.2 months, respectively; median OS = 11.6 vs 12.4 months, respectively). Conclusions Older adults were less likely to receive second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer, though we did not observe a statistical difference in survival outcomes vs younger adults following second-line therapy. Further study should examine factors affecting decisions to treat older adults with second-line therapy. Inclusion of geriatric assessment may provide better criteria regarding the risks and benefits of second-line therapy.

Abstract Meta-analysis based on individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful methodology for synthesizing evidence by combining information drawn from multiple trials. Hitherto, its principal application has been in questions of clinical management, but an increasingly important use is in clarifying trials methodology, for instance in the selection of endpoints, as discussed in this review. In oncology, the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive (ARCAD) Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Database is a leader in the use of IPD-based meta-analysis in methodological research. The ARCAD database contains IPD from more than 38 000 patients enrolled in 46 studies and continues to collect phase III trial data. Here, we review the principal findings of the ARCAD project in respect of endpoint selection and examine their implications for cancer trials. Analysis of the database has confirmed that progression-free survival (PFS) is no longer a valid surrogate endpoint predictive of overall survival in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, PFS remains an endpoint of choice for most first-line trials in metastatic colorectal cancer and other solid tumors. Only substantial PFS effects are likely to translate into clinically meaningful benefits, and accordingly, we advocate an oncology research model designed to identify highly effective treatments in carefully defined patient groups. We also review the use of the ARCAD database in assessing clinical response including novel response metrics and prognostic markers. These studies demonstrate the value of IPD as a tool for methodological studies and provide a reference point for the expansion of this approach within clinical cancer research.