Sobrero, Alberto F.

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

142 Background: Fruquintinib (F) is a highly selective, oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor of all 3 vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (VEGFRs -1, -2, -3) that is approved by the US FDA and in the EU, UK, and Japan for previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), regardless of biomarker status. FRESCO-2 (NCT04322539) met its primary endpoint demonstrating significantly improved overall survival (OS) with F + best supportive care (BSC) vs placebo (P) + BSC. This subgroup analysis assessed landmark survival of all FRESCO-2 patients (pts), and baseline (BL) characteristics and safety data of pts treated with F who had OS ≥10 months (mos) compared with the intent-to-treat (ITT) population (pop). Methods: Pts were randomized 2:1 to receive F 5 mg or matching P, by mouth, once daily, 3 weeks on, 1 week off, + BSC. Pts had received prior chemotherapy, anti-VEGF therapy and, if RAS wild type, anti-EGFR therapy; and had prior exposure to trifluridine/tipiracil (TAS-102) and/or regorafenib. The hazard ratio (HR) between the two treatment arms was calculated from a stratified Cox proportional hazard model with treatment group as the only covariate in the model. Results: In the ITT pop, OS was improved with F vs P (HR 0.66); OS rates (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) at 6 and 9 mos were 60.4% (55.9–64.9) vs 41.5% (35.0–48.0) and 41.1% (36.4–45.8) vs 28.2% (22.1–34.3), respectively. Progression-free survival (PFS) rates (95% CIs) at 6 and 9 mos were 23.8% (19.7–28.0) vs 1.1% (0–2.6) and 11.3% (8.1–14.6) vs 0.5% (0–1.6), respectively. Of 461 pts who received F, 113 (24.5%) had OS ≥10 mos (range 10.0–18.9) with a median duration of F treatment of 6.3 mos (range 0.7–19.1). Among pts receiving F, a higher proportion (≥10% difference) of pts with OS ≥10 mos had no liver metastases (mets) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 0 at BL compared with the ITT pop (Table). In pts with OS ≥10 mos, 61.9% experienced a grade ≥3 treatment-emergent adverse event compared with 62.7% in the ITT pop. Conclusions: Longer-term OS and PFS rates at 6 and 9 mos were higher with F vs P in the FRESCO-2 ITT pop. The data show a higher proportion of pts with OS ≥10 mos had an absence of liver mets and ECOG PS 0 at BL than the ITT pop. The safety profile of F in pts with OS ≥10 mos was consistent with the ITT pop. Clinical trial information: NCT04322539 . BL characteristics of pts treated with F with OS ≥10 mos vs ITT pop. BL characteristic Pts with OS ≥10 mos (n=113) ITT pop(n=461) ECOG PS (0 / 1), % 54.0 / 46.0 42.5 / 57.5 Median time since 1 st CRC diagnosis, mos 52.0 47.2 Primary tumor location at 1 st diagnosis (colon / rectum / both), % 51.3 / 35.4 / 13.3 60.5 / 31.0 / 8.5 Primary site at 1 st diagnosis (colon left / colon right), % 42.5 / 15.9 41.6 / 21.0 Liver mets, % 58.4 73.5 Median duration of mCRC, mos 42.7 37.9 Prior lines of therapy for mCRC (≤3 / >3), % 26.5 / 73.5 27.1 / 72.9 Prior TAS-102, % 46.9 52.1 Prior regorafenib, % 12.4 8.7

PURPOSE A number of studies suggest that older patients may have reduced or no benefit from the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidines as adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer (CC). MATERIALS AND METHODS We studied the prognostic impact of age, as well as treatment adherence/toxicity patterns according to age, in patients with stage III CC who received 3 or 6 months of infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin/capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) on the basis of data collected from trials from the ACCENT and IDEA databases. Associations between age and time to recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), survival after recurrence (SAR), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed by a Cox model or a competing risk model, stratified by studies and adjusted for sex, performance status, T and N stage, and year of enrollment. RESULTS A total of 17,909 patients were included; 24% of patients were age older than 70 years (n = 4,340). Patients age ≥70 years had higher rates of early treatment discontinuation. Rates of grade ≥3 adverse events were similar between those older and younger than 70 years, except for diarrhea and neutropenia that were more frequent in older patients treated with CAPOX (14.2% v 11.2%; P = .01 and 12.1% v 9.6%; P = .04, respectively). In multivariable analysis, TTR was not significantly different between patients <70 years and those ≥70 years, but DFS, OS, SAR, and CSS were significantly shorter in those patients ≥70 years. CONCLUSION In patients ≥70 years with stage III CC fit enough to be enrolled in clinical trials, oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy was well tolerated and led to similar TTR compared with younger patients, suggesting similar efficacy. TTR may be a more appropriate end point for efficacy in this patient population.

PURPOSE Oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer (CC) for 6 months remains a standard in high-risk stage III patients. Data are lacking as to whether early discontinuation of all treatment (ETD) or early discontinuation of oxaliplatin (EOD) could worsen the prognosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS We studied the prognostic impact of ETD and EOD in patients with stage III CC from the ACCENT/IDEA databases, where patients were planned to receive 6 months of infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin or capecitabine plus oxaliplatin. ETD was defined as discontinuation of treatment and EOD as discontinuation of oxaliplatin only before patients had received a maximum of 75% of planned cycles. Association between ETD/EOD and overall survival and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed by Cox models adjusted for established prognostic factors. RESULTS Analysis of ETD and EOD included 10,447 (20.9% with ETD) and 7,243 (18.8% with EOD) patients, respectively. Compared with patients without ETD or EOD, patients with ETD or EOD were statistically more likely to be women, with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1, and for ETD, older with a lower body mass index. In multivariable analyses, ETD was associated with a decrease in disease-free survival and overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61, P < .001 and HR, 1.73, P < .001), which was not the case for EOD (HR, 1.07, P = .3 and HR, 1.13, P = .1). However, patients who received < 50% of the planned cycles of oxaliplatin had poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION In patients treated with 6 months of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for stage III CC, ETD was associated with poorer oncologic outcomes. However, this was not the case for EOD. These data favor discontinuing oxaliplatin while continuing fluoropyrimidine in individuals with significant neurotoxicity having received > 50% of the planned 6-month chemotherapy.

11 Background: Six months of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer (CC) remains a standard in high-risk stage III patients. Early treatment discontinuation (ETD) could worsen the prognosis. In addition, there is current lack of data on the prognostic impact of early oxaliplatin only discontinuation (EOD). Methods: We studied the prognostic impact of ETD and EOD in patients with stage III CC who participated in 11 relevant clinical trials of the ACCENT and IDEA databases, where patients were planned to receive 6 months of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine plus oxaliplatin (FOLFOX or CAPOX). ETD was defined as discontinuation of treatment before 75% of cycles of chemotherapy. EOD was defined as discontinuation of oxaliplatin only, while continuing the fluoropyrimidine, before 75% of cycles of oxaliplatin. Association between ETD/EOD and overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) was assessed by Cox model adjusted for prognostic factors. Results: ETD analysis included 10,444 patients (FOLFOX n = 7,033; CAPOX n = 3,411), with 20.9% of patients with ETD (17.8% with FOLFOX and 27.2% with CAPOX, p < 0.001). Out of 7,243 patients, 18.8% experienced EOD (17.4% FOLFOX versus 21.4% with CAPOX, p < 0.001). Compared to patients without ETD or EOD, patients with ETD or EOD were statistically more likely to be women, older, with higher ECOG-PS ≥ 1, and in addition for ETD, a Body Mass Index (BMI) < 18.5 kg/m2. In multivariate analyses, ETD was associated with a decrease in DFS and OS in the overall population (HR: 1.40 95%CI 1.23-1.58, p < 0.001 and HR: 1.51 95%CI 1.31-1.74, p < 0.001, respectively). The same pattern was present with FOLFOX and CAPOX regimen, and also in low-risk and high-risk groups for each regimen with the exception of the CAPOX regimen in the low-risk group for DFS and OS. By contrast, EOD was not associated with reduced DFS or OS in the overall population (HR: 1.10 95%CI 0.77-1.58, p = 0.6 and HR: 0.97 95%CI 0.62-1.52, p = 0.9, respectively), in the low-risk group (HR: 0.97 95%CI 0.56-1.66, p = 0.9 and HR: 0.97 95%CI 0.51-1.82, p = 0.9, respectively) and high-risk group (HR: 1.22 95%CI 0.74-2.02, p = 0.4 and HR: 1.05 95%CI 0.53-2.08, p = 0.9, respectively) and for all subgroups of regimen. Conclusions: In patients treated with 6 months of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III CC, ETD was associated with a decrease in DFS and OS. By contrast, EOD was not significantly associated with poorer outcomes. In case of relevant neurotoxicity during a 6 months schedule, these data are not in favor of continuing oxaliplatin beyond 75% of planned cycles of adjuvant chemotherapy, and demonstrate that fluoropyrimidines remain the cornerstone of adjuvant chemotherapy in localized CC.

PURPOSE Early-onset (EO) colorectal cancer (CRC, age < 50 years) incidence is increasing. Decisions on optimal adjuvant therapy should consider treatment adherence, adverse events, and expected outcomes in a population with life expectancy longer than later-onset (LO) CRC (age ≥ 50 years). MATERIALS AND METHODS Individual patient data from six trials in the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy database were analyzed. Characteristics, treatment adherence, and adverse events in stage II or III EO-CRC and LO-CRC were compared. To reduce confounders of non–cancer-related deaths because of age or comorbidities, time to recurrence (3-year relapse-free rate) and cancer-specific survival (5-year cancer-specific mortality rate) were considered. RESULTS Out of 16,349 patients, 1,564 (9.6%) had EO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, EO-CRC had better performance status (86% v 80%, P < .01), similar T stage (% T1-3/T4: 76/24 v 77/23, P = .97), higher N2 disease rate (24% v 22%, P < .01), more likely to complete the planned treatment duration (83.2% v 78.2%, P < .01), and received a higher treatment dose intensity, especially with 6-month regimens. Gastrointestinal toxicity was more common in EO-CRC; hematologic toxicity was more frequent in LO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, significantly worse cancer-specific outcomes were demonstrated especially in high-risk stage III EO-CRC: lower 3-year relapse-free rate (54% v 65%; hazard ratio [HR] 1.33; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.55; P value < .001) and higher 5-year cancer-specific mortality rate (24% v 20%; HR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.47; P value < .06). In this subgroup, no difference was observed with 3 or 6 months of therapy, with equally poor disease-free survival rates (57% v 56%; HR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.29; P value = .85). CONCLUSION Young age is negatively prognostic in high-risk stage III CRC and associated with significantly higher relapse rate; this is despite better treatment adherence and higher administered treatment intensity, suggesting more aggressive disease biology.

3575 Background: Pts with mCRC frequently receive ≥1 sequential treatment TL. Approximately 50%-60% of pts receive second-line (L2) and 20%-30% third-line (L3) regimens in routine practice. We investigated the pts clinical/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across TL. Methods: Data from 37,560 pts enrolled in 48 randomized trials (34 in first (L1), 9 in L2, and 5 in L3) were analyzed. Candidate variables (VAR) measured at enrollment were sex, age, body mass index, performance status (PS), bilirubin, hemoglobin (Hb), platelets (Pl), derived white blood cells-to-absolute neutrophil counts ratio (WBC/ANC), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), primary tumor location, and number and location of metastatic sites (MS). Missing data were imputed. VAR with significant value at all TL were selected to construct a prognostic score of overall survival (OS) in training set (TS, n=30,050; 80%). For each TL, the score was calculated as the sum on the estimations of the VAR’ coefficients from the common multivariate model; Cox’s model was used to define risk groups. The discrimination capability was assessed using the Harrell’s C-index. External validation was done in the validation set (VS, n=7,510; 20%). Results: A total of 26,974 pts in L1, 7,693 pts in L2 and 2,893 pts in L3 were analyzed. The following characteristics increased continuously over TL: ≥2 MS (57%, 72%, 82%), lung metastases (50%, 74%, 91%), lymph nodes metastases (51%, 61%, 80%), KRAS mutation (37%, 47%, 51%) and elevated ALP (46%, 52%, 61%). BRAF mutation decreased (9%, 7%, 5%). In L1 vs L3 trials, 70% vs 89% of patients had primary tumor resection, 10% vs 80% had at least one metastasectomy and 31% vs 78% had a late metachronous (>12 months) metastasis. 7 independent VAR were retained in the prognostic score (PS, Hb, Pl, WBC/ANC, LDH, ALP, and the number of MS); four pt groups with significantly different prognoses were defined (table). This score remained valid when excluding pts with PS 2. Third-line oral drugs (vs placebo) and subsequent line (L2/L1 or L3/L2) were effective in all prognostic groups. Conclusions: Clinical/tumor pt characteristics significantly varied over subsequent TL in patients included in randomized trials. The same prognostic model using practical clinical and biological variables can be used in all TL.[Table: see text]

3517 Background: Incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC, age < 50) is steadily increasing. Decisions on adjuvant treatment (adjTx) regimen and duration should consider tx adherence, toxicity (tox) and expected outcomes in a population with life-expectancy longer than late onset CRC (loCRC, age ≥ 50). Methods: Individual patient data from stage II/III patients (pts) from 6 randomised trials in the IDEA database were used to compare characteristics, tx adherence, and adverse events of eoCRC to loCRC. To reduce the confounder of non-cancer-related deaths due to age/co-morbidities, time-to-recurrence (TTR) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were compared by stratified Gay k-sample test. 5-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rate were estimated by adjusted cumulative incidence function. 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate were compared by stratified and adjusted COX models. Results: Out of 16,349 pts included, 1564 (9.6%) were eoCRC. Compared to loCRC, eoCRC had lower percent of male pts (51% vs 57%, p < 0.01) better performance status (PS0 86% vs 80%, p < 0.01), similar T stage distribution (% T1-3/T4: 76/24 vs 77/23, p = 0.97), higher rate of N2 disease (24% vs 22%, p < 0.01), more likely to complete pre-planned duration of adjTx (83.2% vs 78.2%, p < 0.01) and received a higher tx intensity especially with 6 month tx (mean oxaliplatin dose intensity 75% vs 72%, p < 0.01; capecitabine 85% vs 78%, p < 0.01; 5FU 85% vs 82% p < 0.01). Gastrointestinal tox was more common in eoCRC (any grade nausea 58% vs 45%, p < 0.01; any grade vomiting 22% vs 16%, p < 0.01); haematological tox was more frequent in loCRC (62% vs, 69%, p = < 0.01); any grade neuropathy rate was similar (75%). Significant interaction was found between age and T stage for TTR (p = 0.04). Clinical outcome estimates and comparisons are shown in Table. Notably, high risk stage III (T4/N2) eoCRC had significantly lower 3-y RFS rate (54% vs 64%, HRadj 0.74, p < 0.01). Conclusions: eoCRC have better tx adherence than loCRC, as expected. While in high risk stage II and low risk stage III, cancer-specific outcomes are not different, in high risk stage III young age is negatively prognostic and associated with significantly higher relapse rate and risk of CRC death; this is despite a higher administered adjTx-intensity, suggesting a more aggressive disease biology. Clinical trial information: NCT00749450 (SCOT); NCT00646607 (TOSCA); NCT01150045 (CALGB/SWOG 80702); NCT00958737 (IDEA France) [Table: see text]

7009 Background: Survival outcomes of 2nd line mCRC therapy for OA are poorly understood. We evaluated the rates and survival outcomes of 2nd line therapy among OA age 70+ compared to younger adults (YA) age < 70 following progression on 1st line clinical trials. Methods: Associations between clinical characteristics of pts with available treatment data after progression on 10 of 23 1st line ARCAD trials, time to initial progression (TTiP) and 2nd line therapy were evaluated. Time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) were compared between OA and YA enrolled on 2nd line trials by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, ECOG PS, number of metastatic sites, presence of metastasis in lung/liver/peritoneum. Results: Sixteen percent of 1st line ARCAD trial participants were age 70+ (n = 870). Data for 2nd line therapy was available for 60.6% pts (3206/5289). Each additional decade of life was associated with 11% lower odds of receiving 2nd line therapy in multivariate analysis (p = 0.0117). OA participating in 2nd line trials (7.9% age 75+ of 7921) experience similar TTP and OS to YA (mTTP: 5.1 vs. 5.2mos; mOS 11.6 vs 12.4mos, respectively). Conclusions: We did not observe a statistical difference in survival outcomes by age following 2nd line mCRC therapy. Further study is needed to examine unmeasured comorbidity and use of geriatric assessment to select OA likely to benefit from 2nd line therapy. [Table: see text]

4010 Background: Survival outcomes in patients with stage III colon cancer varies widely according to T-N sub-stages. The ability to estimate the benefit of each therapeutic option (surgery alone, fluoropyrimidines alone, oxaliplatin-based doublet for either 3 or 6 months) in each T-N subgroup within stage III, may provide more accurate information helping doctors and patients in the complex shared decision-making process surrounding adjuvant therapy. Methods: Theoutcomedata of 12,834 patients with stage III colon cancer enrolled in the IDEA trial served as our database. Patients were categorized in 16 sub-stages, based on the T-N categories. We created a meta-regression model to predict the expected 3-year DFS within each T-N sub-stage and hence the 5-year DFS rates were projected. We then evaluated the efficacy of each therapeutic option in every sub-stage, working backward by subtraction, using an average of the HRs reported in the pertinent trials publication as conversion factor. Results: Large differences in 3-year DFS rate were observed among the subgroups, ranging from 95% (T1N1a) to 29% (T4N2b) in the overall population. The contribution to outcome of each therapeutic option in this setting varied widely across sub-stages. According to our model, patients with T1N1a cancers have a projected 5-year DFS of 85% with surgery alone. Adjuvant fluoropyrimidine alone results in 4.2% absolute DFS gain; an additional 1.7% and 0.6% gain is seen with oxaliplatin for 3 and 6 months, respectively. Patients with T4N2b cancers show a 4.7% 5-year DFS with surgery alone, and a 7.1%, 5.0%, 2.1% increase with the aforementioned adjuvant options, respectively. Conclusions: The resulting overlay bar graph gives patients and doctors the projected relative benefit of each treatment option and may substantially help the shared decision-making process.