Goldberg, Richard M.

Abstract Endocytosis regulates receptor trafficking and signaling, yet its role in colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. We analyzed transcriptomic data from 15,025 CRC tumors to evaluate gene expression in clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) and the endosomal sorting complexes required for transport (ESCRT) pathway. Pathway-level signatures were compared across consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) and examined in relation to oncogenic signaling programs, while individual endocytosis-related genes were evaluated for associations with clinical outcomes in an independent randomized trial cohort. Expression of CME and ESCRT pathways varied by CMS, with the highest expression in CMS4 and the lowest in CMS3. Endocytosis signatures correlated with multiple oncogenic signaling pathways, including MAPK, TGF-β, WNT, PI3K, NOTCH, and angiogenesis, suggesting broad links between endocytic activity and tumor biology. In the randomized phase III CALGB/SWOG 80405 trial, low expression of AP2M1 —a core adaptor in the CME complex—was significantly associated with longer overall survival and progression-free survival in patients treated with anti-EGFR agents, but not in those receiving anti-VEGF agents. These findings suggest that endocytic trafficking may be associated with oncogenic signaling and differential therapeutic benefit in patients with metastatic CRC. The endocytosis pathway reflects biologically relevant heterogeneity in CRC and may help guide therapeutic stratification.

Abstract Background The tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) classification at pathological evaluation determines prognosis following cancer treatment. For rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy, whether ypTNM likely confers different prognosis than pTNM. We compared survival outcomes of patients classified by ypTNM vs pTNM staging. Methods Patients with resected locoregional rectal cancer from the National Cancer Database who underwent upfront surgery (pTNM) and had ≥5 years follow-up (2010-2017) were compared with those receiving neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery (ypTNM). To address treatment selection bias, analyses were stratified by receipt of guideline-concordant care. Overall survival (OS) was compared using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Results Of 50 436 patients (median age = 60; 61.4% male), 11 732 (23.3%) underwent upfront surgery and 38 704 (76.7%) received neoadjuvant therapy; 78.8% of the upfront surgery group received guideline-concordant care. In analyses stratified by guideline-concordant care, overall survival was similar for stage 0-I (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05; 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.15) but significantly worse for ypTNM vs pTNM in stage II (HR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.27 to 1.77; 5-year OS = 75.6% vs 83.2%) and stage III (HR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.75; 5-year OS = 67.0% vs 78.2%). Multivariable analysis confirmed ypTNM was associated with worse survival at each stage (stage 0-I: HR = 1.14, P = .004; stage II: HR = 1.49, P < .001; stage III: HR = 1.60, P < .001). Conclusion Stage for stage, ypTNM classification is associated with worse survival than pTNM classification, with increasing difference at higher stages. Future staging systems and management guidelines should account for these differences to optimize prognostication and stratification for clinical trials and surveillance strategies.

Importance The definition of cure in stage II to III colon cancer (CC) remains unclear due to limitations in conventional end points, which include deaths and second primary tumors as events. These can complicate communication with patients regarding long-term outcomes. Objective To distinguish relapses from competing health-related events to classify long-term outcomes years after surgery and explore when the incidence of true relapses of the initial CC approaches 0% to define cure in this disease. Design, Setting, and Participants This pooled analysis of individual patient–level data from 15 phase 3 randomized clinical trials assessed time to CC-related relapse using Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen methods, with death and second primary tumors treated as competing risks. Cox regression models evaluated prognostic associations, stratified by sex, stage, and tumor. Patients with stage II to III CC who underwent adjuvant chemotherapy were included. All patients had undergone radical surgery for CC and received adjuvant chemotherapy with a median follow-up of at least 6 years. The Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) and the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy (IDEA) databases included adjuvant studies conducted between 1996 and 2015. Data were analyzed from February 2022 to June 2025. Exposures Adjuvant chemotherapy regimens varied across trials, including fluoropyrimidines alone or in combination with oxaliplatin or biologic agents. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was time to CC-related recurrence. The predefined threshold for cure was a recurrence risk below 0.5%. Results Of 35 213 included patients, 19 346 (54.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 60.2 (10.8) years. The incidence rate of recurrence peaked at 6.4% (1993 of 31 373) between month 6 and month 12 and decreased continuously until year 10 of follow-up never exceeding 0.5%. Recurrence rate appeared to increase again after year 10 and peaked at 2.0% during year 12.5 to year 13, a pattern observed exclusively in the MOSAIC trial. Competing-event analysis revealed that death and second primary tumors inflated the apparent recurrence rate, especially for older patients. The overall cumulative incidence of relapse with death as competing risk was lower among female patients (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.76; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this pooled analysis of phase 3 randomized clinical trials, a recurrence rate less than 0.5% occurred after 6 years from surgery, supporting a practical definition of cure. Recognizing this milestone may improve patient communication, guide follow-up duration, and reduce unnecessary long-term surveillance.

3520 Background: Recent analyses highlight nonhierarchical outcomes using the 8 th Edition AJCC staging system for CC. For instance, the 5-year survival rate for stages I and IIIa patients (pts) closely align. Additionally, tumor deposits (TDs) have been established as significant prognostic indicators. The AJCCCCEP commissioned this study to develop an updated pathological staging system for CC focused specifically on pts without distant metastasis (M0), while retaining the existing stage IV classification. Methods: Individual patient data (IPD) from pts diagnosed with cc (2010- 2017) in the NCDB were divided into training (70%) and internal validation (30%) datasets. External validation used IPD from clinical trials. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Risk classification development for M0 pts incorporated ungrouped data on pathologic T categories, the number of involved regional lymph nodes (LN+), and TD counts. Recursive partitioning and regression tree analyses were applied to construct hierarchical staging levels. Pre-specified criteria required survival probabilities to be consecutive and show clear separations using Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates with pairwise log-rank test P of < 0.005 for the training and < 0.05 for validation analyses. Results: Data from 281,997 pts (median age 67 years, 50% male, 81% white, 55% T3, 19% T4, 44% N+, 26% M+, and 11% with ≥1 TD) were analyzed, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years. The updated staging system (Table) met pre-specified criteria, with all observed pairwise P < 0.0001 in the development and internal validation sets. KM OS curves displayed a hierarchical separation across all sub-levels after the 1 st year of diagnosis. Consistent results were seen in pts treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in 4 trials (all pair-wise P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The proposed pathological staging system for M0 pts fulfills pre-specified criteria for hierarchical risk stratification, validated both internally and externally, and provides an evidence-based update. Pending review process, the AJCCCCEP will recommend that these changes be made to the Version 9 staging protocol for colon cancer to improve prognostication for CC pts. Stage T, # of LN+, # of TD M % of pts 1y OS (CI), % 3y OS (CI), % 5y OS (CI), % I T1, 0, 0 0 5 96 (95-97) 91 (90-92) 84 (83-86) IIa T2, 0, 0 0 10 95 (94-95) 88 (88-89) 80 (79-81) IIb T1, 0, 1+T1, 1+, 0T2, 0, 1+T2, 1-4, 0T3, 0, 0 0 27 93 (92-93) 84 (84-85) 75 (75-76) IIIa T1, 1+, 1+T2, 1-4, 1+T2, 5+, 0T3, 0, 1+T3, 1-4, 0 0 14 92 (91-92) 80 (80-81) 71 (70-72) IIIb T2, 5+, 1+T3, 1-4, 1+T3, 5+, 0T4a, 0-4, 0T4b, 0-2, 0 0 13 86 (86-87) 69 (68-70) 58 (57-59) IIIc T3, 5+, 1+T4a, 0-4, 1+T4a, 5+, anyT4b, 0-2, 1+T4b, 3+, any 0 5 78 (77-80) 53 (51-54) 40 (38-41) IVa Any 1a 19 59 (58-60) 28 (28-29) 17 (16-18) IVb Any 1b 7 43 (42-44) 14 (13-14) 6 (6-7) CI: 95% confidence internal; Peritoneum involvement data were not available before 2018 in NCDB. Thus, IVa/b were based on 7 th Edition.

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

PURPOSE The adjuvant treatment for stage III colon cancer (CC) is chemotherapy combining fluoropyrimidine (FP) and oxaliplatin (OX). FP regimen plus OX (FPOX) may benefit in high-risk stage II CC. We performed a pooled analysis of pivotal MOSAIC and C-07 studies evaluating FPOX for the treatment of high-risk stage II CC according to prognostic factors, number of high-risk factors, and current clinicopathologic risk classification on the basis of T stage, tumor perforation, and number of lymph nodes examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS One thousand five hundred and ninety-five patients with stage II CC receiving FP or FPOX were pooled. The overall survival (OS) benefit of OX was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and unadjusted Cox models stratified by study. Three thousand and fifty-nine patients with stage III CC were used only for interaction tests between the allocated chemotherapy and stage. RESULTS In the pooled analysis of stage II patients, independent prognostic factors in multivariable analysis were sex, age, perforation/obstruction, and tumor sidedness. There was a significant interaction in OS between stage and allocated chemotherapy with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.03 for stage II (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.29; P = .813) and 0.82 for stage III (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.92; P = .001; P int = .073). There was no benefit from the addition of OX to FP for any of the prognostic factors. The number of high-risk factors tested was not predictive of OX benefit. According to the currently agreed clinicopathologic risk classification, no OS benefit of OX was observed, as HR was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.63 to 1.18; P = .349). CONCLUSION No OS benefit of adjuvant OX was found in high-risk stage II CC, regardless of the definition used to characterize tumors as having a high risk for recurrence. Hence, our analysis suggests that OX should not be the standard of care for adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II CC, even in high-risk patients.

Abstract Background Inflammation and insufficient physical inactivity contribute to individual-level risk of disease recurrence and death in stage III colon cancer. The extent to which increased inflammatory risk can be offset by sufficient physical activity remains unknown. Methods This cohort study was nested within the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (now part of the Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology) and Southwest Oncology Group randomized trial. Inflammatory burden was quantified by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and soluble tumor necrosis factor-α receptor 2 after recovery from tumor resection. Physical activity was measured during and after postoperative chemotherapy. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival. Results The 3-year disease-free survival rate was 88.4% among patients with low inflammation and sufficient physical activity (referent group for all comparisons), 84.9% with low inflammation and insufficient physical activity (absolute risk difference = −3.5 percentage points, 95% confidence interval [CI] = −11.3 to 4.3; P = .38), 78.0% with intermediate inflammation and insufficient physical activity (absolute risk difference = −10.4 percentage points, 95% CI = −17.4 to −3.3; P = .007), and 79.7% with high inflammation and insufficient physical activity (absolute risk difference = −8.7 percentage points, 95% CI = −15.7 to −1.6; P = .022). In contrast, the 3-year disease-free survival rate was 87.3% among patients with intermediate inflammation and sufficient physical activity (absolute risk difference = −1.1 percentage points, 95% CI = −7.5 to 5.3; P = .74) and 84.4% with high inflammation and sufficient physical activity (absolute risk difference = −4.0 percentage points, 95% CI = −12.3 to 4.3; P = .34). Conclusion In this observational study of stage III colon cancer patients, physical activity was associated with improved disease-free survival despite high inflammation. Patients with intermediate or high inflammation who were physically active had disease-free survival rates that were not statistically significantly different from those with low inflammation.

PURPOSE A number of studies suggest that older patients may have reduced or no benefit from the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidines as adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer (CC). MATERIALS AND METHODS We studied the prognostic impact of age, as well as treatment adherence/toxicity patterns according to age, in patients with stage III CC who received 3 or 6 months of infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin/capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) on the basis of data collected from trials from the ACCENT and IDEA databases. Associations between age and time to recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), survival after recurrence (SAR), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed by a Cox model or a competing risk model, stratified by studies and adjusted for sex, performance status, T and N stage, and year of enrollment. RESULTS A total of 17,909 patients were included; 24% of patients were age older than 70 years (n = 4,340). Patients age ≥70 years had higher rates of early treatment discontinuation. Rates of grade ≥3 adverse events were similar between those older and younger than 70 years, except for diarrhea and neutropenia that were more frequent in older patients treated with CAPOX (14.2% v 11.2%; P = .01 and 12.1% v 9.6%; P = .04, respectively). In multivariable analysis, TTR was not significantly different between patients <70 years and those ≥70 years, but DFS, OS, SAR, and CSS were significantly shorter in those patients ≥70 years. CONCLUSION In patients ≥70 years with stage III CC fit enough to be enrolled in clinical trials, oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy was well tolerated and led to similar TTR compared with younger patients, suggesting similar efficacy. TTR may be a more appropriate end point for efficacy in this patient population.

PURPOSE The phase III Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB)/SWOG 80405 trial found no difference in overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy in combination with either bevacizumab or cetuximab. We investigated the potential prognostic and predictive value of HER2 amplification and gene expression using next-generation sequencing (NGS) and NanoString data. PATIENTS AND METHODS Primary tumor DNA from 559 patients was profiled for HER2 amplification by NGS (FoundationOne CDx). Tumor tissue from 925 patients was tested for NanoString gene expression using an 800-gene panel. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were the time-to-event end points. RESULTS High HER2 expression (dichotomized at median) was associated with longer PFS (11.6 v 10 months, P = .012) and OS (32 v 25.3 months, P = .033), independent of treatment. An OS benefit for cetuximab versus bevacizumab was observed in the high HER2 expression group ( P = .02), whereas a worse PFS for cetuximab was seen in the low-expression group ( P = .019). When modeled as a continuous variable, increased HER2 expression was associated with longer OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.83 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.93]; adjusted P = .0007) and PFS (HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.91]; adjusted P = .0002), reaching a plateau effect after the median. In patients with HER2 expression lower than median, treatment with cetuximab was associated with worse PFS (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.12 to 1.71]; adjusted P = .0027) and OS (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.59]; adjusted P = .03) compared with that with bevacizumab. A significant interaction between HER2 expression and the treatment arm was observed for OS ( P intx = .017), PFS ( P intx = .048), and objective response rate ( P intx = .001). CONCLUSION HER2 gene expression was prognostic and predictive in CALGB/SWOG 80405. HER2 tumor expression may inform treatment selection for patients with low HER2 favoring bevacizumab- versus cetuximab-based therapies.

Background The C-C motif chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5)/C-C motif chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5) axis plays a major role in colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to characterize the molecular features associated with CCR5 / CCL5 expression in CRC and to determine whether CCR5 / CCL5 levels could impact treatment outcomes. Methods 7604 CRCs tested with NextGen Sequencing on DNA and RNA were analyzed. Molecular features were evaluated according to CCR5 and CCL5 tumor gene expression quartiles. The impact on treatment outcomes was assessed in two cohorts, including 6341 real-world patients and 429 patients from the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB)/SWOG 80405 trial. Results CCR5 / CCL5 expression was higher in right-sided versus left-sided tumors, and positively associated with consensus molecular subtypes 1 and 4. Higher CCR5 / CCL5 expression was associated with higher tumor mutational burden, deficiency in mismatch repair and programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) levels. Additionally, high CCR5 / CCL5 were associated with higher immune cell infiltration in the tumor microenvironment (TME) of MMR proficient tumors. Ingenuity pathway analysis revealed upregulation of the programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1)/PD-L1 cancer immunotherapy pathway, phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) signaling, and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4) signaling in cytotoxic T lymphocytes, whereas several inflammation-related pathways were downregulated. Low CCR5 / CCL5 expression was associated with increased benefit from cetuximab-FOLFOX treatment in the CALGB/SWOG 80405 trial, where significant treatment interaction was observed with biologic agents and chemotherapy backbone. Conclusions Our data show a strong association between CCR5/CCL5 gene expression and distinct molecular features, gene expression profiles, TME cell infiltration, and treatment benefit in CRC. Targeting the CCR5/CCL5 axis may have clinical applications in selected CRC subgroups and may play a key role in developing and deploying strategies to modulate the immune TME for CRC treatment.