LaCroix, Andrea Z.

Background The association of social isolation or lack of social network ties in older adults is unknown. This knowledge gap is important since the risk of heart failure (HF) and social isolation increase with age. The study examines whether social isolation is associated with incident HF in older women, and examines depressive symptoms as a potential mediator and age and race and ethnicity as effect modifiers. Methods and Results This study included 44 174 postmenopausal women of diverse race and ethnicity from the WHI (Women's Health Initiative) study who underwent annual assessment for HF adjudication from baseline enrollment (1993–1998) through 2018. We conducted a mediation analysis to examine depressive symptoms as a potential mediator and further examined effect modification by age and race and ethnicity. Incident HF requiring hospitalization was the main outcome. Social isolation was a composite variable based on marital/partner status, religious ties, and community ties. Depressive symptoms were assessed using CES‐D (Center for Epidemiology Studies‐Depression). Over a median follow‐up of 15.0 years, we analyzed data from 36 457 women, and 2364 (6.5%) incident HF cases occurred; 2510 (6.9%) participants were socially isolated. In multivariable analyses adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, clinical, and general health/functioning; socially isolated women had a higher risk of incident HF than nonisolated women (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08–1.41). Adding depressive symptoms in the model did not change this association (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.07–1.40). Neither race and ethnicity nor age moderated the association between social isolation and incident HF. Conclusions Socially isolated older women are at increased risk for developing HF, independent of traditional HF risk factors. Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT00000611.

Abstract Background Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 42 loci (P < 5 × 10−8) associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Expanded consortium efforts facilitating the discovery of additional susceptibility loci may capture unexplained familial risk. Methods We conducted a GWAS in European descent CRC cases and control subjects using a discovery–replication design, followed by examination of novel findings in a multiethnic sample (cumulative n = 163 315). In the discovery stage (36 948 case subjects/30 864 control subjects), we identified genetic variants with a minor allele frequency of 1% or greater associated with risk of CRC using logistic regression followed by a fixed-effects inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. All novel independent variants reaching genome-wide statistical significance (two-sided P < 5 × 10−8) were tested for replication in separate European ancestry samples (12 952 case subjects/48 383 control subjects). Next, we examined the generalizability of discovered variants in East Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics (12 085 case subjects/22 083 control subjects). Finally, we examined the contributions of novel risk variants to familial relative risk and examined the prediction capabilities of a polygenic risk score. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The discovery GWAS identified 11 variants associated with CRC at P < 5 × 10−8, of which nine (at 4q22.2/5p15.33/5p13.1/6p21.31/6p12.1/10q11.23/12q24.21/16q24.1/20q13.13) independently replicated at a P value of less than .05. Multiethnic follow-up supported the generalizability of discovery findings. These results demonstrated a 14.7% increase in familial relative risk explained by common risk alleles from 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.9% to 13.7%; known variants) to 11.9% (95% CI = 9.2% to 15.5%; known and novel variants). A polygenic risk score identified 4.3% of the population at an odds ratio for developing CRC of at least 2.0. Conclusions This study provides insight into the architecture of common genetic variation contributing to CRC etiology and improves risk prediction for individualized screening.

Objectives To examine the association between long‐term bisphosphonate use and fracture in older women at high risk of fracture. Design Retrospective cohort. Setting Women's Health Initiative. Participants Older women who reported at least 2 years of bisphosphonate use in 2008–09 (N = 5,120). Measurements Exposure data were from a current medications inventory. Outcomes (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist or forearm, any clinical fracture) were ascertained annually. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the association between duration of bisphosphonate use (3–5, 6–9, 10–13 years) and fracture was estimated, using 2 years as the referent group. Results On average participants were 80 years old and were followed for 3.7 ± 1.2 years. There were 127 hip, 159 wrist or forearm, 235 clinical vertebral, and 1,313 clinical fractures. In multivariate‐adjusted analysis, 10 to 13 years of bisphosphonate use was associated with higher risk of any clinical fracture than 2 years of use (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07–1.57). This association persisted in analyses limited to women with a prior fracture (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.01–1.67) and women with no history of cancer (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.10–1.68). The association of 10 to 13 years of use, compared with 2 years of use, was not statistically significant for hip (HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 0.81–3.40), clinical vertebral (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 0.99–2.76), or wrist fracture (HR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.67–2.00). Conclusion In older women at high risk of fracture, 10 to 13 years of bisphosphonate use was associated with higher risk of any clinical fracture than 2 years of use. These results add to concerns about the benefit of very long‐term bisphosphonate use.

ABSTRACT Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20–105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m2, the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m2 was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85–0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09–1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Background and objective Survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma is limited and few prognostic factors are known. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline variants associated with survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Methods We analysed overall survival in relation to single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among 1005 patients from two large GWAS datasets, PanScan I and ChinaPC. Cox proportional hazards regression was used in an additive genetic model with adjustment for age, sex, clinical stage and the top four principal components of population stratification. The first stage included 642 cases of European ancestry (PanScan), from which the top SNPs (p≤10 −5 ) were advanced to a joint analysis with 363 additional patients from China (ChinaPC). Results In the first stage of cases of European descent, the top-ranked loci were at chromosomes 11p15.4, 18p11.21 and 1p36.13, tagged by rs12362504 (p=1.63×10 −7 ), rs981621 (p=1.65×10 −7 ) and rs16861827 (p=3.75×10 −7 ), respectively. 131 SNPs with p≤10 −5 were advanced to a joint analysis with cases from the ChinaPC study. In the joint analysis, the top-ranked SNP was rs10500715 (minor allele frequency, 0.37; p=1.72×10 −7 ) on chromosome 11p15.4, which is intronic to the SET binding factor 2 (SBF2) gene. The HR (95% CI) for death was 0.74 (0.66 to 0.84) in PanScan I, 0.79 (0.65 to 0.97) in ChinaPC and 0.76 (0.68 to 0.84) in the joint analysis. Conclusions Germline genetic variation in the SBF2 locus was associated with overall survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of European and Asian ancestry. This association should be investigated in additional large patient cohorts.

Abstract Further analyses from the Women's Health Initiative estrogen trial shows that CEE reduced fracture risk. The fracture reduction at the hip did not differ appreciably among risk strata. These data do not support overall benefit over risk, even in women at highest risk for fracture. Introduction: The Women's Health Initiative provided evidence that conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) can significantly reduce fracture risk in postmenopausal women. Additional analysis of the effects of CEE on BMD and fracture are presented. Materials and Methods: Postmenopausal women 50–79 years of age with hysterectomy were randomized to CEE 0.625 mg daily (n = 5310) or placebo (n = 5429) and followed for an average 7.1 years. Fracture incidence was assessed by semiannual questionnaire and verified by adjudication of radiology reports. BMD was measured in a subset of women (N = 938) at baseline and years 1, 3, and 6. A global index was used to examine whether the balance of risks and benefits differed by baseline fracture risk. Results: CEE reduced the risk of hip (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% CI, 0.45–0.94), clinical vertebral (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.44–0.93), wrist/lower arm (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.47–0.72), and total fracture (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64–0.80). This effect did not differ among strata according to age, oophorectomy status, past hormone use, race/ethnicity, fall frequency, physical activity, or fracture history. Total fracture reduction was less in women at the lowest predicted fracture risk in both absolute and relative terms (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.68–1.08). CEE also provided modest but consistent positive effects on BMD. The HRs of the global index for CEE were relatively balanced across tertiles of summary fracture risk (lowest risk: HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.62–1.05; mid risk: HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.92–1.30; highest risk: HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.88–1.23; interaction, p = 0.42). Conclusions: CEE reduces the risk of fracture and increases BMD in hysterectomized postmenopausal women. Even among the women with the highest risk for fractures, when considering the effects of estrogen on other important health outcomes, a summary of the burden of monitored effects does not indicate a significant net benefit.