Melton, L. Joseph

Background: Recent findings suggest a role for heart failure in the etiology of osteoporotic fractures, but the nature of the relationship is unclear and community data are lacking. Methods and Results: We conducted a community-based case-control study comparing prior osteoporotic fractures among Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents newly diagnosed with heart failure in 1979-2002 (cases) to age- and sex-matched community controls without heart failure (961 pairs; mean age: 76 years; 54% women). Subjects were then followed forward in time to July 2009 to evaluate the risk of fracture subsequent to the heart failure diagnosis. Prior fractures were more frequent in heart failure cases than controls: 23% versus 19%, P =0.02; adjusted odds ratio (OR) for any osteoporotic fracture 1.39 (95% CI: 1.07-1.81). This was related to hip fractures (OR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.25-2.66) with little or no association with other fractures. Over a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 536 new osteoporotic fractures occurred in 444 individuals. The adjusted fracture risk was higher among heart failure patients compared to controls (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.32; 95% CI: 0.98-1.79), again largely attributable to hip fractures (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.03-2.41). Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with heart failure experience an excess risk of fractures both before and after the diagnosis of heart failure, which is related to hip fractures. These findings suggest common underlying and co-occurring mechanisms for heart failure and hip fracture and underscore the crucial importance of preventing falls in elderly heart failure patients.

Medical records were reviewed for all 173 cases of herpes zoster diagnosed among residents of Rochester, Minnesota, less than 20 years of age during the period 1960 through 1981. The incidence of zoster increased with age from 20 cases per 100,000 person-years in those residents less than five years of age to 63 cases per 100,000 person-years in those aged 15 to 19. Morbidity was less than has been described in adults, as only two patients required hospitalization and no postherpetic neuralgia or other late complications were diagnosed. The single case of subsequent cancer found in 1,288 person-years of follow-up was not significantly different from the number expected based on cancer incidence in the general Rochester population. The incidence of childhood zoster in patients with acute lymphocytic leukemia was 122 times higher than in children without an underlying malignancy. Chickenpox in the first year of life was found to be a risk factor for childhood zoster, with a relative risk between 2.8 and 20.9. Neither chickenpox in the second year of life nor recent vaccinations were found to be risk factors for childhood zoster.

Background: There is growing awareness of an association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and fractures, and a temporal increase in fracture risk after myocardial infarction has been noted but the mechanisms are not delineated. To evaluate this relationship, we systematically examined the association of hip fracture with all disease categories and assessed related secular trends. Methods: Using resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a population-based incident case-control study was conducted. Disease history was compared between all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents aged 50 years or older with a first hip fracture in 1985–2006 and community control subjects individually matched (1:1) to cases on age, sex, and index year (n=3,808; mean age [SD], 82 [9] years; 76% women). Results: All CVD and numerous non-CVD categories (e.g., infectious diseases, nutritional and metabolic diseases, mental disorders, diseases of the nervous system and sense organs, and diseases of the respiratory system) were associated with fracture risk. However, increasing temporal trends were almost exclusively detected in categories of CVD (Figure). The largest increases in association were observed for ischemic heart disease, other forms of heart disease (including heart failure), hypertension, and diabetes and were more pronounced among elderly women than other demographic groups. Conclusions: While the association with hip fracture was not specific to CVD, temporal increases were mainly detected in cardio-metabolic diseases, all of which have also been linked previously to frailty. This could delineate a common pathway that warrants further investigation.

Abstract Background: Active cancer is an independent predictor of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE; hazard ratio=2.2–4.2). However, whether the risk of VTE recurrence among active cancer patients can be further stratified by tumor site or presence of metastases is uncertain. Objectives: To estimate and compare the cumulative incidence of VTE recurrence by tumor site and presence of metastases among active cancer patients with incident VTE. Study Design and Population: Retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, MN residents with active cancer who lived >1 day after a first-lifetime deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism over the 35-year period, 1966–2000 (n=418). 25 patients with oral (6), bone (1), skin (4), soft tissue (3), eye (1) and other/unknown (10) were excluded, leaving 393 remaining patients. Measurements: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, tumor site, presence and location of tumor metastases, and date of first recurrent VTE. Tumor site and metastases were tested as potential predictors of time-to-recurrent VTE using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: 114 of 393 patients with active cancer developed recurrent VTE over 764 person-years of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE at seven, 30, 90, and 180 days, 1, 5, and 10 years was 1.9%, 10.3%, 18.3%, 22.3%, 28.7%, 44.5%, and 53.5%, respectively. After adjusting for age and gender, tumor site was an independent predictor of first VTE recurrence (p<0.01). The hazard of VTE recurrence was over 2-fold higher for lung cancer patients compared to the lowest recurrence group (kidney, bladder and other genitourinary cancer; HR=2.04, 95% CI: 0.88, 4.70, p=0.096), and the hazard for brain and pancreatic cancer was nearly 2-fold higher (HR=1.9 for each, p=0.22, 0.24, respectively). The hazard of recurrence among hematological; breast and ovarian; gastric, colon, and liver; and prostate cancer patients did not differ significantly from the lowest recurrence group. Univariately, the presence of metastases at cancer diagnosis was not associated with recurrent VTE (HR=1.16; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.69, p=0.45). Conclusions: Tumor site is an independent predictor of VTE recurrence after adjusting for age and gender. In particular, lung, brain and pancreatic cancer patients have the highest risk for recurrence and these patients should be considered for secondary prophylaxis. Disease severity, as reflected by metastatic disease at cancer diagnosis, is not a predictor of recurrence.

Abstract Background: Most trials of standard heparin and warfarin therapy used the 3- to 6-month cumulative incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence as the primary efficacy outcome. Consequently, the effect of heparin anticoagulation intensity on short-term VTE recurrence after controlling for other predictors of recurrence (e.g., active cancer, neurological disease with extremity paresis) is uncertain. Objectives: To test standard heparin anticoagulation intensity, using activated partial prothrombin time (APTT) data, as an independent predictor of 14-day VTE recurrence. Measurements: Using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents with an incident deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism over the 14-year period, 1984–1997 (n=1165). We followed each case (conditional on surviving one day) forward in time through their complete medical records in the community for first VTE recurrence. We collected date of incident VTE onset, start and stop dates of heparin and warfarin, and date, time and result of all APTT and platelet count values. Using these and other measures of standard heparin therapy as time-dependent variables, we tested the intensity of heparin anticoagulation as an independent predictor of 14-day VTE recurrence while controlling for other baseline characteristics using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: Of the 1165 patients, 1026 (88%) and 989 (85%) received heparin and warfarin, respectively, and 254 (22%) developed recurrent VTE over 5461 person-years of follow-up; 23 recurred within 14 days. In the multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of 14-day recurrence included female gender (HR=3.06, 95%CI: 1.05, 8.91; p=0.04) and neurologic disease with extremity paresis (HR=6.01, 95%CI: 1.93, 18.66; p<0.01); the hazard of recurrence was marginally increased for active cancer (HR=2.21, p=0.13). Warfarin therapy (HR=0.44, p=0.11) and a therapeutic APTT within the first 24 hours of therapy (HR=0.41, p=0.08) were marginally protective, but age, body mass index, time interval between VTE onset and start of heparin, and other measures of heparin anticoagulation intensity (e.g., proportion of time in therapeutic APTT range, etc) were not predictors of recurrence. Three patients developed new and persistent thrombocytopenia beginning 2, 4 and 5 days after starting heparin, respectively and prior to VTE recurrence. Conclusions: VTE recurrence is uncommon within 14 days after starting heparin therapy. Female gender and neurologic disease with extremity paresis are independent predictors of 14-day recurrence, and active cancer may be an additional predictor. Warfarin therapy and a therapeutic APTT within the first 24 hours may predict a reduced recurrence risk. However, other measures of heparin anticoagulation intensity were non-predictive. Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia may partially account for early VTE recurrence.

Abstract Background: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant plasma cell disorder that carries a 1% per year risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM) or related malignancy. The prevalence and natural history of MGUS, in which by definition intact immunoglobulin heavy chain (IgH) is expressed, has been well described. However, up to 20% of myeloma (MM) is characterized by complete lack of IgH expression (Light-chain MM); the prevalence of a corresponding precursor entity, light chain MGUS (LC-MGUS) has not been determined. We report the first prevalence estimates of LC-MGUS in the general population from a large, well-defined geographic population using modern laboratory techniques. Methods: The cohort for this study was derived from one previously assembled by us to estimate the prevalence of MGUS (N Engl J Med2006;354:1362-9). The original cohort used to estimate the prevalence of MGUS consisted of 21,463 of the 28,038 enumerated residents aged 50 or over of Olmsted County Minnesota as of January 1, 1995. The sensitive serum free light chain (FLC) assay (The Binding Site Limited, Birmingham, U.K.) was performed on stored serum samples from these 21,463 persons. IgH expression was determined by immunofixation on all FLC results that had an abnormal kappa/lambda ratio (<0.26 or >1.65). LC-MGUS was defined as the presence of an abnormal FLC ratio and a negative immunofixation for IgH expression. Results: Adequate stored serum samples were available in 20,733 (97%) of the 21,463 persons. To date, the FLC assay has been performed and results were available for analysis on samples from 16,637 persons. An abnormal FLC ratio was observed in 572 persons. IgH expression was detected in 255 of these cases on immunofixation; these persons are considered as having MGUS, and were excluded from the estimation of LC-MGUS prevalence. This resulted in 317 persons out of 16,637 who had an abnormal FLC ratio without evidence of IgH expression, resulting in an estimated prevalence of LC- MGUS of 2%. Of the 317 cases of LC-MGUS identified in this study, 217 were kappa and 100 were lambda; in 35 cases the presence of the corresponding monoclonal light chain was apparent on immunofixation. The median age of the cohort of LC-MGUS was 62 years; males=151, females =166. The involved FLC level ranged from 0.118–270.0 mg/dL. The FLC ratio ranged from 0.014–0.253 (lambda) and 1.67–511.01 (kappa). So far, progression to multiple myeloma has occurred in 4 patients, a rate much higher than what is expected based on the prevalence of myeloma in the general population. Two additional patients have developed CLL. Conclusions: LC-MGUS is prevalent in 2% of the general population aged 50 years of age or older. The natural history of this disorder needs to be determined.

Abstract Due to the diagnostic sensitivity of serum free light chain quantitation for monoclonal light chain diseases, it has been suggested that urine assays no longer need be performed as part of the diagnostic algorithm for monoclonal proteins. We reviewed our experience to determine the relative diagnostic contribution of urine assays. Methods: Patients with a monoclonal gammopathy and monoclonal urinary protein at initial diagnosis who also had a serum immunofixation and serum free light chain quantitation within 30 days of diagnosis were identified (n = 428). The laboratory results for serum protein electrophoresis, serum immunofixation, serum free light chain, urine protein electrophoresis, and urine immunofixation were reviewed. Results: The patients in this cohort had diagnoses of multiple myeloma, primary amyloid, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, smoldering multiple myeloma, solitary plasmacytomas, and other less frequently detected monoclonal gammopathies. By definition of the cohort, all 428 had a monoclonal urine protein. 86% had an abnormal serum free light chain K/L ratio, 81% had an abnormal serum protein electrophoresis, and 94% had an abnormal serum immunofixation. In only 2 patients, however, were all 3 serum assays normal. Both of these were patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (idiopathic Bence Jones proteinuria). Conclusion: Discontinuation of urine studies and reliance on a diagnostic algorithm using solely serum studies (protein electrophoresis, immunofixation, and free light chain quantitation), missed 2 of the 428 monoclonal gammopathies (0.5 %) with urinary monoclonal proteins, and these 2 cases required no medical intervention.

Abstract Background: Most trials of standard heparin and warfarin therapy used the 3- to 6-month cumulative incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence as the primary efficacy outcome. However, the independent effect of warfarin anticoagulation intensity on VTE recurrence after controlling for other predictors of recurrence (e.g., active cancer, neurological disease with extremity paresis) is uncertain. Objectives: To test warfarin anticoagulation intensity, using international normalized ratio (INR) data, as an independent predictor of 6-month VTE recurrence. Measurements: Using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents with an incident deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism over the 14-year period, 1984–1997 (n=1165). We followed each case (conditional on surviving 14 days without VTE recurrence) forward in time through their complete medical records in the community for first VTE recurrence. We collected date of incident VTE onset, start and stop dates of heparin and warfarin, and date, time and result of all INR values. Using these and other measures of standard warfarin therapy as time-dependent variables, we tested the intensity of warfarin anticoagulation (expressed as the cumulative percent of time with an INR at or above 2.0 [or at or above 1.5] while on warfarin) as an independent predictor of 6-month VTE recurrence while controlling for other baseline characteristics using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: Of the 1165 patients, 1026 (88%) and 989 (85%) received heparin and warfarin, respectively, and 254 (22%) developed recurrent VTE over 5461 person-years of follow-up; 52 recurred within 15–180 days. In the multivariate analysis, the independent predictor of 6-month recurrence was active cancer (HR=3.98, 95% CI: 2.12, 7.45; p<0.01); age, gender, body mass index and neurologic disease with extremity paresis were not predictors of VTE recurrence. In models that included presence or absence of warfarin therapy along with proportion of time with an INR ≥2, this latter intensity variable was protective (HR=0.16 for 100% versus 0% of time, p=0.02) against recurrence, while mere presence of warfarin therapy (HR =0.72, p= 0.56) was not. Similar results were obtained when intensity was represented as proportion of time with an INR ≥1.5 (HR=0.17, p=0.02). Interestingly, a therapeutic APTT within the first 24 hours of heparin therapy also was protective against 6-month recurrence (HR=0.45, p=0.02). Conclusions: Active cancer is an independent predictor of 6-month VTE recurrence. Warfarin therapy with a higher proportion of time with an INR ≥1.5 or ≥2 offers similar protection against recurrence. A rapid heparin-response (as reflected by a therapeutic APTT within 24 hours of heparin therapy) also is a predictor of reduced 6-month recurrence, possibly reflecting lower factor VIII activity at the acute incident VTE event. Gender is not a predictor of long-term recurrence.

Abstract Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is characterized by a serum M protein ≥ 3g/dL and/or 10% or more of plasma cells in the bone marrow. However, the definition is not standardized, and it is not known whether both serum M protein levels and bone marrow plasma cell counts are necessary for diagnosis or if one parameter is sufficient. We reviewed the medical records and bone marrows of all patients from Mayo Clinic seen within 30 days of recognition of an IgG or IgA M protein ≥ 3g/dL or a bone marrow containing ≥ 10% plasma cells from 1970 to 1995. This allows for a minimum potential follow-up of 10 years. Patients with end-organ damage at baseline from plasma cell proliferation, including active multiple myeloma (MM) and primary amyloidosis (AL) and those who had received chemotherapy were excluded. A differential of the bone marrow aspirate coupled with the bone marrow biopsy morphology and immunohistochemistry using antibodies directed against CD138, MUM-1 and Cyclin D1 were evaluated in every case in order to estimate the plasma cell content. In all, 301 patients fulfilled either of the criteria for SMM. Their median age was 64 years and only 3% were less than 40 years of age; 60% were male. The median hemoglobin value was 12.9 g/dL; 7% were less than 10 g/dL, but the anemia was unrelated to plasma cell proliferation. IgG accounted for 75%, IgA 22%, and biclonal proteins were found in 3%. The serum light-chain was κ in 67% and λ in 33%. The median serum M spike was 2.9 g/dL; 11% were at least 4.0 g/dL. Uninvolved serum immunoglobulins were reduced in 81%; only 1 immunoglobulin was reduced in 31% and both were decreased in 50%. The urine contained a monoclonal κ protein in 36% and λ in 18% and 46% were negative. The median size of the urine M spike was 0.04 g/24h; only 5 (3%) were > 1 g/24h. The median bone marrow plasma cell content was 15 – 19%; 10% had less than 10% plasma cells, while 10% had at least 50% plasma cells in the bone marrow. Cyclin D-1 was expressed in 17%. Patients were categorized into 3 groups: Group 1, serum M protein ≥ 3g/dL and bone marrow containing ≥ 10% plasma cells (n= 113, 38%); Group 2, bone marrow plasma cells ≥ 10% but serum M protein < 3g/dL (n= 158, 52%); Group 3, serum M protein ≥ 3g/dL but bone marrow plasma cells < 10% (n= 30, 10%). During 2,204 cumulative years of follow-up 85% died (median follow-up of those still living 10.8 years), 155 (51%) developed MM, while 7 (2%) developed AL. The overall rate of progression at 10 years was 62%; median time to progression was 5.5 yrs. The median time to progression was 2.4, 9.2, and 19 years in groups 1, 2, and 3 respectively; correspondingly at 10 years, progression occurred in 76%, 59%, and 32% respectively. Significant risk factors for progression with univariate analysis were serum M spike ≥ 4g/dL (p < 0.001), presence of IgA (p = 0.003), presence of urine light chain (p = 0.006), presence of λ urinary light chain (p = 0.002), bone marrow plasma cells ≥ 20% (p < 0.001) and reduction of uninvolved immunoglobulins (p < 0.001). The hemoglobin value, gender, serum albumin, and expression of cyclin D-1 were not of prognostic importance. On multivariate analysis, the percentage of bone marrow plasma cells was the only significant factor predicting progression to MM or AL.

Abstract Background: While several uncommon disorders (e.g., myeloproliferative diseases, connective tissue disease, etc.) have been suggested as potential risk factors for VTE, the independence and magnitude of any risk is uncertain. Objective: To test uncommon characteristics as potential independent risk factors for VTE, and estimate the magnitude of risk for each. Methods: Using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we identified all incident cases of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism over the 6-year period, 1992–1997. For each objectively confirmed case (n=562), we identified up to two Olmsted County residents without VTE who most closely matched a case on age, gender, and medical record number (n=755). Because medical record numbers are assigned sequentially, such matching assures a similar duration of medical follow-up. For all cases and controls, we reviewed the complete medical records in the community for over 125 baseline characteristics which were tested for an association with VTE using conditional logistic regression. Results: The mean ± SD (range) ages for cases and controls were 65.71 ± 18.85 (0–102) and 64.90 ± 18.66 (0–102) years, respectively, and 55.5% were female. Novel univariate risk factors for incident VTE included former tobacco smoker, ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, chronic lung disease, all-cause pulmonary hypertension, chronic renal disease, myeloproliferative disorders, any infection, femoral artery catheterization (angiography or percutaneous intervention), ICU admission and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor therapy. Among infections, septicemia, pneumonia, and ENT, cardiovascular, GI, urinary tract and skin/soft tissue infections were univariately associated with VTE; reproductive tract infection was not. Diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, lipid-lowering drugs (including statins), inflammatory bowel disease, asthma, connective tissue disease, and influenza were not univariately associated with VTE, and beta-blocker therapy was not protective. A multivariate analysis will test these characteristics as potential independent VTE risk factors. Conclusions: Several novel characteristics are univariately associated with VTE. Such novel characteristics may provide new insights into VTE mechanisms if, upon further analysis, these characteristics are independent VTE risk factors.