Mancao, Christoph

Abstract Background We aimed to develop a gene expression–based prognostic signature for isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) wild-type glioblastoma using clinical trial datasets representative of glioblastoma clinical trial populations. Methods Samples were collected from newly diagnosed patients with IDH wild-type glioblastoma in the ARTE, TAMIGA, EORTC 26101 (referred to as “ATE”), AVAglio, and GLARIUS trials, or treated at UCLA. Transcriptional profiling was achieved with the NanoString gene expression platform. To identify genes prognostic for overall survival (OS), we built an elastic net penalized Cox proportional hazards regression model using the discovery ATE dataset. For validation in independent datasets (AVAglio, GLARIUS, UCLA), we combined elastic net–selected genes into a robust z-score signature (ATE score) to overcome gene expression platform differences between discovery and validation cohorts. Results NanoString data were available from 512 patients in the ATE dataset. Elastic net identified a prognostic signature of 9 genes (CHEK1, GPR17, IGF2BP3, MGMT, MTHFD1L, PTRH2, SOX11, S100A9, and TFRC). Translating weighted elastic net scores to the ATE score conserved the prognostic value of the genes. The ATE score was prognostic for OS in the ATE dataset (P < 0.0001), as expected, and in the validation cohorts (AVAglio, P < 0.0001; GLARIUS, P = 0.02; UCLA, P = 0.004). The ATE score remained prognostic following adjustment for O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status and corticosteroid use at baseline. A positive correlation between ATE score and proneural/proliferative subtypes was observed in patients with MGMT non-methylated promoter status. Conclusions The ATE score showed prognostic value and may enable clinical trial stratification for IDH wild-type glioblastoma.

Abstract Background Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 42 loci (P < 5 × 10−8) associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Expanded consortium efforts facilitating the discovery of additional susceptibility loci may capture unexplained familial risk. Methods We conducted a GWAS in European descent CRC cases and control subjects using a discovery–replication design, followed by examination of novel findings in a multiethnic sample (cumulative n = 163 315). In the discovery stage (36 948 case subjects/30 864 control subjects), we identified genetic variants with a minor allele frequency of 1% or greater associated with risk of CRC using logistic regression followed by a fixed-effects inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. All novel independent variants reaching genome-wide statistical significance (two-sided P < 5 × 10−8) were tested for replication in separate European ancestry samples (12 952 case subjects/48 383 control subjects). Next, we examined the generalizability of discovered variants in East Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics (12 085 case subjects/22 083 control subjects). Finally, we examined the contributions of novel risk variants to familial relative risk and examined the prediction capabilities of a polygenic risk score. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The discovery GWAS identified 11 variants associated with CRC at P < 5 × 10−8, of which nine (at 4q22.2/5p15.33/5p13.1/6p21.31/6p12.1/10q11.23/12q24.21/16q24.1/20q13.13) independently replicated at a P value of less than .05. Multiethnic follow-up supported the generalizability of discovery findings. These results demonstrated a 14.7% increase in familial relative risk explained by common risk alleles from 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.9% to 13.7%; known variants) to 11.9% (95% CI = 9.2% to 15.5%; known and novel variants). A polygenic risk score identified 4.3% of the population at an odds ratio for developing CRC of at least 2.0. Conclusions This study provides insight into the architecture of common genetic variation contributing to CRC etiology and improves risk prediction for individualized screening.