Chlebowski, Rowan T.

Abstract There are limited prospective data on whether established risk factors modify breast cancer risk in women with pathogenic variants (PV) in BRCA1/2 and virtually no risk modification data for ATM, CHEK2, or PALB2. We conducted a nested case–control study in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI), randomly selecting women with and without breast cancer for DNA sequencing. We evaluated breast cancer odds associated with obesity, family cancer history, smoking, alcohol, parity, breastfeeding, oophorectomy, tubal ligation, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) with estrogen and progestin or estrogen only in PV carriers and noncarriers. In exploratory analyses, we grouped genes by established predisposition for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ATM and CHEK2) or ER-negative (BRCA1 and PALB2) disease. Multivariable models with interaction terms were used to assess differential risk modification by PVs. Among 12,957 WHI participants, 287 carried PVs. Breastfeeding was modestly associated with reduced risk for PALB2 [OR = 0.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.00–0.92; P value = 0.042]. With one-sided 95% CI, power was sufficient to exclude OR ≥2.0 with obesity for ATM and BRCA2; smoking and alcohol for CHEK2; no breastfeeding for ATM; no oophorectomy for BRCA2 and CHEK2; no tubal ligation for CHEK2; and neighborhood socioeconomic status for all genes. Estrogen + progestin MHT was modestly associated with increased risk for ER-positive PVs (OR = 7.31; 95% CI, 1.14–64.20; P = 0.036). PVs did not modify risk (interaction P ≥ 0.05). BRCA1/2, ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 PV carriers do not have breast cancer OR ≥2.0 with many established risk factors. However, MHT warrants additional study in PV carriers. Significance: There is limited information on whether established risk factors increase breast cancer risk from PVs. In the WHI, PV carriers had no substantial (≥2-fold) increase with most risk factors, except potentially MHT in ATM or CHEK2 carriers. The results may inform counseling and research on MHT.

Objectives To examine the association between long‐term bisphosphonate use and fracture in older women at high risk of fracture. Design Retrospective cohort. Setting Women's Health Initiative. Participants Older women who reported at least 2 years of bisphosphonate use in 2008–09 (N = 5,120). Measurements Exposure data were from a current medications inventory. Outcomes (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist or forearm, any clinical fracture) were ascertained annually. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the association between duration of bisphosphonate use (3–5, 6–9, 10–13 years) and fracture was estimated, using 2 years as the referent group. Results On average participants were 80 years old and were followed for 3.7 ± 1.2 years. There were 127 hip, 159 wrist or forearm, 235 clinical vertebral, and 1,313 clinical fractures. In multivariate‐adjusted analysis, 10 to 13 years of bisphosphonate use was associated with higher risk of any clinical fracture than 2 years of use (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07–1.57). This association persisted in analyses limited to women with a prior fracture (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.01–1.67) and women with no history of cancer (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.10–1.68). The association of 10 to 13 years of use, compared with 2 years of use, was not statistically significant for hip (HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 0.81–3.40), clinical vertebral (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 0.99–2.76), or wrist fracture (HR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.67–2.00). Conclusion In older women at high risk of fracture, 10 to 13 years of bisphosphonate use was associated with higher risk of any clinical fracture than 2 years of use. These results add to concerns about the benefit of very long‐term bisphosphonate use.

LBA504 Background: Limited efficacy and serious toxicities have limited uptake of tamoxifen or raloxifene as preventatives of breast cancer. Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) prevent contralateral breast cancers more than tamoxifen in adjuvant trials and have fewer serious side effects. This is the first report of an AI used in primary prevention. Methods: NCIC CTG MAP.3 is a randomized trial designed to detect a 65% reduction in annual incidence of invasive breast cancer (IBC) on exemestane (E) versus placebo (P). Eligible postmenopausal women had ≥ one of the following risk factors: Gail score >1.66%, prior ADH, ALH, LCIS or DCIS with mastectomy, age over 60. Health-related and menopause-specific quality of life (QOL) were assessed by SF-36 and MENQOL questionnaires. Results: From 2004-2010, 4,560 women were randomized: age 62.5 yrs (37-90); Gail Score 2.3 % (0.6-21); BMI 28.0 kg/m2 (15.9-65.4). Risk factors included: age >60 yrs (49%); Gail score >1.66 (40%); and prior ADH, ALH, LCIS or DCIS with mastectomy (11%). At median follow-up of 35 months there were 11 IBCs on E and 32 on P (annual incidence 0.19% vs 0.55%; HR= 0.35, 95% CI 0.18-0.70, p = 0.002); ductal (10E/27P), lobular (1E/5P). Most tumors were ER positive (7E/27P); Her2/neu negative (10E/26P); TNM stage T1 (8E/28P), N0 (7E/22P), M0 (11E/30P). E was superior in all subgroups: by Gail score, age, BMI, prior LCIS and DCIS. The annual incidence rate of IBC or DCIS was 0.35% E and 0.77% P (HR=0.47;95% CI 0.27-0.79; p = 0.004) based on 64 IBCs or DCISs (20E/44P). Clinical bone fractures, osteoporosis, hypercholesterolemia or cardiovascular events were equal in both arms. No clinically meaningful differences in QOL were detected. Conclusions: Exemestane significantly reduced invasive and pre-invasive breast cancers in postmenopausal women at increased risk for breast cancer with no serious toxicities. Exemestane should be considered a new option for primary prevention of breast cancer. Supported by the Canadian Cancer Society; Pfizer Inc. PEG supported in part by Avon Foundation.

Abstract Background: Statins are the most widely prescribed cholesterol-lowering drugs in the United States, with approximately 25% of US adults using statins by 2008. The anti-carcinogenic effect of statins may reduce the metastatic potential of cancer cells leading to ‘stage migration’ with statin users more likely diagnosed with early rather than late stage cancer. We evaluated the effects of statins on breast cancer stage migration and breast cancer-specific mortality in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trial and Observational Study. Methods: The study population included 128,675 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years, with 7,883 newly-diagnosed pathologically-confirmed cases of in situ (19%), local stage (61%), regional stage (19%) and distant stage (1%) breast cancer and 401 deaths due to breast cancer after an average of 11.5 (SD=3.7) years of follow-up. To reduce the possibility of detection bias, we excluded women who did not report a mammogram within 5 years of study entry, and who had no health insurance or medical care provider (n=28,237). Stage was coded using criteria implemented in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program and stratified into early stage (in situ and local) vs. late stage (regional and distant). Information on statin use prior to breast cancer diagnosis was collected at baseline and years one, three, six, and nine years post-baseline. Self- and interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect risk factor information. Cause of death was based on medical record review by physician adjudicators. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between statin use as a time-dependent exposure and diagnosis of late stage breast cancer and breast cancer-specific mortality adjusting for important confounders. For these models, participants who had early stage breast cancer or who died during follow-up were censored at time of diagnosis or death, respectively. We also evaluated the effect of statins stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Statins were used by 10,474 women (8%) at baseline. In the multivariable-adjusted time-dependent model, statin use was associated with a marginal reduction in risk of late stage breast cancer (HR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.70-1.02, p=0.082) and a reduction in risk of late stage estrogen receptor positive breast cancer (HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63-0.99, p=0.044). Statin use was also associated with a marginal reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality although it did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.32-1.06, p=0.075). Conclusions: In the WHI, statin use was associated with a modest reduction in risk of late stage estrogen positive breast cancer and a non-significant decrease in breast cancer mortality. We are currently performing sensitivity analyses on these models. Studies using other large data sets with longer follow-up and information on cancer-directed therapy are needed to further evaluate this possible association. Citation Format: Monica P Arun, Pinkal Desai, Amy Lehman, Marilyn L Kwan, JoAnn E Manson, Sayeh Lavasani, Sylvia Wasswertheil-Smoller, Gloria E Sarto, Meryl S LeBoff, Jane Cauley, Michele L Cote, Jennifer Beebe-Dimmer, Allison Jay, Rowan T Chlebowski, Michael S Simon. Statins and breast cancer stage and mortality in the Women's Health Initiative cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-10-04.

Abstract The majority of candidates for breast cancer prevention have not accepted tamoxifen because of the perception of an unfavorable risk/benefit ratio and the acceptance of raloxifene remains to be determined. One means of improving this ratio is to identify women at very high risk of breast cancer. Family history, age, atypia in a benign biopsy, and reproductive factors are the main parameters currently used to determine risk. The most powerful risk factor, mammographic density, is not presently employed routinely. Other potentially important factors are plasma estrogen and androgen levels, bone density, weight gain, age of menopause, and fracture history, which are also not currently used in a comprehensive risk prediction model because of lack of prospective validation. The Breast Cancer Prevention Collaborative Group (BCPCG) met to critically examine and prioritize risk factors that might be selected for further testing by multivariate analysis using existing clinical material. The BCPCG reached a consensus that quantitative breast density, state of the art plasma estrogen and androgen measurements, history of fracture and height loss, BMI, and waist–hip ratio had sufficient priority for further testing. As a practical approach, these parameters could be added to the existing Tyrer–Cuzick model which encompasses factors included in both the Claus and Gail models. The BCPCG analyzed potentially available clinical material from previous prospective studies and determined that a large case/control study to evaluate these new factors might be feasible at this time.