Cauley, Jane A

ABSTRACT The surrogate threshold effect (STE) is defined as the minimum treatment effect on a surrogate that is reliably predictive of a treatment effect on the clinical outcome. It provides a framework for implementing a clinical trial with a surrogate endpoint. The aim of this study was to update our previous analysis by validating the STE for change in total hip (TH) BMD as a surrogate for fracture risk reduction; the novelty of this study was this validation. To do so, we used individual patient data from 61,415 participants in 16 RCTs that evaluated bisphosphonates (nine trials), selective estrogen receptor modulators (four trials), denosumab (one trial), odanacatib (one trial), and teriparatide (one trial) to estimate trial-specific treatment effects on TH BMD and all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures. We then conducted a random effects meta-regression of the log relative fracture risk reduction against 24-month change in TH BMD, and computed the STE as the intersection of the upper 95% prediction limit of this regression with the line of no fracture reduction. We validated the STE by checking whether the number of fractures in each trial provided 80% power and determining what proportion of trials with BMD changes ≥ STE reported significant reductions in fracture risk. We applied this analysis to (i) the trials on which we estimated the STE; and (ii) trials on which we did not estimate the STE. We found that the STEs for all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures were 1.83%, 1.42%, 3.18%, and 2.13%, respectively. Among trials used to estimate STE, 27 of 28 were adequately powered, showed BMD effects exceeding the STE, and showed significant reductions in fracture risk. Among the validation set of 11 trials, 10 met these criteria. Thus STE differs by fracture type and has been validated in trials not used to develop the approach. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

ABSTRACT Few analyses of antiresorptive (AR) treatment trials relate short-term changes in bone turnover markers (BTMs) to subsequent fracture reduction seeking to estimate the proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) by BTMs. Pooling such information would be useful to assess new ARs or novel dosing regimens. In the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Bone Quality project, we analyzed individual-level data from up to 62,000 participants enrolled in 12 bisphosphonate (BP) and four selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) placebo-controlled fracture endpoint trials. Using BTM results for two bone formation markers (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP] and pro-collagen I N-propeptide [PINP]) and one bone resorption marker (C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX]) and incident fracture outcome data, we estimated the PTE using two different models. Separate analyses were performed for incident morphometric vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 1 to 5 years of follow-up. For vertebral fracture, the results showed that changes in all three BTMs at 6 months explained a large proportion of the treatment effect of ARs (57 to >100%), but not for and non-vertebral or hip fracture. We conclude that short-term AR treatment-related changes in bone ALP, PINP, and CTX account for a large proportion of the treatment effect for vertebral fracture. Change in BTMs is a useful surrogate marker to study the anti-fracture efficacy of new AR compounds or novel dosing regiments with approved AR drugs. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Abstract Background: Statins are the most widely prescribed cholesterol-lowering drugs in the United States, with approximately 25% of US adults using statins by 2008. The anti-carcinogenic effect of statins may reduce the metastatic potential of cancer cells leading to ‘stage migration’ with statin users more likely diagnosed with early rather than late stage cancer. We evaluated the effects of statins on breast cancer stage migration and breast cancer-specific mortality in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trial and Observational Study. Methods: The study population included 128,675 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years, with 7,883 newly-diagnosed pathologically-confirmed cases of in situ (19%), local stage (61%), regional stage (19%) and distant stage (1%) breast cancer and 401 deaths due to breast cancer after an average of 11.5 (SD=3.7) years of follow-up. To reduce the possibility of detection bias, we excluded women who did not report a mammogram within 5 years of study entry, and who had no health insurance or medical care provider (n=28,237). Stage was coded using criteria implemented in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program and stratified into early stage (in situ and local) vs. late stage (regional and distant). Information on statin use prior to breast cancer diagnosis was collected at baseline and years one, three, six, and nine years post-baseline. Self- and interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect risk factor information. Cause of death was based on medical record review by physician adjudicators. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between statin use as a time-dependent exposure and diagnosis of late stage breast cancer and breast cancer-specific mortality adjusting for important confounders. For these models, participants who had early stage breast cancer or who died during follow-up were censored at time of diagnosis or death, respectively. We also evaluated the effect of statins stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Statins were used by 10,474 women (8%) at baseline. In the multivariable-adjusted time-dependent model, statin use was associated with a marginal reduction in risk of late stage breast cancer (HR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.70-1.02, p=0.082) and a reduction in risk of late stage estrogen receptor positive breast cancer (HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63-0.99, p=0.044). Statin use was also associated with a marginal reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality although it did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.32-1.06, p=0.075). Conclusions: In the WHI, statin use was associated with a modest reduction in risk of late stage estrogen positive breast cancer and a non-significant decrease in breast cancer mortality. We are currently performing sensitivity analyses on these models. Studies using other large data sets with longer follow-up and information on cancer-directed therapy are needed to further evaluate this possible association. Citation Format: Monica P Arun, Pinkal Desai, Amy Lehman, Marilyn L Kwan, JoAnn E Manson, Sayeh Lavasani, Sylvia Wasswertheil-Smoller, Gloria E Sarto, Meryl S LeBoff, Jane Cauley, Michele L Cote, Jennifer Beebe-Dimmer, Allison Jay, Rowan T Chlebowski, Michael S Simon. Statins and breast cancer stage and mortality in the Women's Health Initiative cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-10-04.

Abstract We studied whether oophorectomy performed after menopause is associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fractures in 6295 Study of Osteoporotic Fractures participants. There was no association between postmenopausal oophorectomy and the risk of hip or vertebral fractures. Introduction: Bilateral oophorectomy after natural menopause has been associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures, potentially because of a decline in serum estradiol and testosterone levels after the oophorectomy. We prospectively tested this hypothesis in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). Materials and Methods: We studied 6295 white women ⩾65 years of age participating in the SOF who were not taking estrogen therapy at baseline. Hip fracture analyses included 708 hip fractures; vertebral fracture analyses included 267 incident vertebral fractures. Baseline serum estradiol and free testosterone values were available in a small subset of participants. Results and Conclusion: There were no significant differences in age, weight, or BMD between the women who underwent postmenopausal oophorectomy (n = 583) and those who did not (n = 5712). Free testosterone levels were significantly lower among women who had a postmenopausal oophorectomy. A history of postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.1; 95% CI = 0.9-1.5) or vertebral fracture (HR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5-1.2). The relationship between oophorectomy and hip fracture was not altered by adding serum estradiol level (HR = 1.3; 95% CI = 0.5-3.2) or serum free testosterone level (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.8-3.7) to the model. In summary, postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fracture in this cohort. These results are in contrast to previous findings, suggesting that the relationship between postmenopausal oophorectomy and fractures is not fully elucidated and that incidental oophorectomy after menopause should still be considered carefully in each potential patient.