Black, Dennis M.

ABSTRACT The surrogate threshold effect (STE) is defined as the minimum treatment effect on a surrogate that is reliably predictive of a treatment effect on the clinical outcome. It provides a framework for implementing a clinical trial with a surrogate endpoint. The aim of this study was to update our previous analysis by validating the STE for change in total hip (TH) BMD as a surrogate for fracture risk reduction; the novelty of this study was this validation. To do so, we used individual patient data from 61,415 participants in 16 RCTs that evaluated bisphosphonates (nine trials), selective estrogen receptor modulators (four trials), denosumab (one trial), odanacatib (one trial), and teriparatide (one trial) to estimate trial-specific treatment effects on TH BMD and all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures. We then conducted a random effects meta-regression of the log relative fracture risk reduction against 24-month change in TH BMD, and computed the STE as the intersection of the upper 95% prediction limit of this regression with the line of no fracture reduction. We validated the STE by checking whether the number of fractures in each trial provided 80% power and determining what proportion of trials with BMD changes ≥ STE reported significant reductions in fracture risk. We applied this analysis to (i) the trials on which we estimated the STE; and (ii) trials on which we did not estimate the STE. We found that the STEs for all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures were 1.83%, 1.42%, 3.18%, and 2.13%, respectively. Among trials used to estimate STE, 27 of 28 were adequately powered, showed BMD effects exceeding the STE, and showed significant reductions in fracture risk. Among the validation set of 11 trials, 10 met these criteria. Thus STE differs by fracture type and has been validated in trials not used to develop the approach. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

ABSTRACT Few analyses of antiresorptive (AR) treatment trials relate short-term changes in bone turnover markers (BTMs) to subsequent fracture reduction seeking to estimate the proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) by BTMs. Pooling such information would be useful to assess new ARs or novel dosing regimens. In the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Bone Quality project, we analyzed individual-level data from up to 62,000 participants enrolled in 12 bisphosphonate (BP) and four selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) placebo-controlled fracture endpoint trials. Using BTM results for two bone formation markers (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP] and pro-collagen I N-propeptide [PINP]) and one bone resorption marker (C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX]) and incident fracture outcome data, we estimated the PTE using two different models. Separate analyses were performed for incident morphometric vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 1 to 5 years of follow-up. For vertebral fracture, the results showed that changes in all three BTMs at 6 months explained a large proportion of the treatment effect of ARs (57 to >100%), but not for and non-vertebral or hip fracture. We conclude that short-term AR treatment-related changes in bone ALP, PINP, and CTX account for a large proportion of the treatment effect for vertebral fracture. Change in BTMs is a useful surrogate marker to study the anti-fracture efficacy of new AR compounds or novel dosing regiments with approved AR drugs. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Abstract Objective The objective is to provide an update of the 2019 Pharmacological Management of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline for the pharmacological management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women using romosozumab. Conclusions We reviewed findings from the meta-analysis and primary clinical trials assessing the efficacy of romosozumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting sclerostin, for the prevention of fractures and concluded that this agent can be considered a treatment option for postmenopausal women at very high risk for osteoporotic fracture. The romosozumab label has a boxed warning, recommending careful consideration by the treating clinician as to cardiovascular risk profile in the individual woman who might receive this agent, since clinical trial data from an active comparator study show an imbalance in serious cardiovascular adverse events between romosozumab and alendronate.

Abstract Objective: Heart fat deposition has been linked to atherosclerosis, and both accelerate after menopause. Hormone therapy (HT) may differentially slow heart fat deposition and progression of atherosclerosis, depending on the specific HT agent or its route of administration. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of different HT agents, oral and transdermal, on associations between heart fat accumulation and atherosclerosis progression, measured by carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), in recently menopausal women from the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS) trial. Methods: KEEPS was a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of the effects of 0.45 mg/d oral conjugated equine estrogens (o-CEE) or 50 mcg/d transdermal 17β-estradiol (t-E 2 ), compared with placebo, on 48 months progression of CIMT. Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and paracardial adipose tissue (PAT) volumes were quantified by computed tomography. Results: In all, 467 women (mean age [SD] 52.7 [2.5]; 78.2% White; 30% on o-CEE, 30.8% t-E 2 , 39.2% placebo) with heart fat volumes and CIMT at baseline and 48 months were included. EAT and PAT changes were not associated with CIMT progression; however, the assigned treatment significantly modified the association between PAT (but not EAT) change and CIMT progression. In the o-CEE group, adjusted CIMT progression was 12.66 μm (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80, 23.52) lower than in t-E 2 group ( P = 0.02), and 10.09 μm (95% CI 0.79, 19.39) lower than in placebo group ( P = 0.03), as per 1-SD increase in PAT. Conclusion: Compared with t-E 2 , o-CEE appears to slow down the adverse effect of increasing PAT on progression of atherosclerosis. Whether this beneficial association is specific to CEE or to the oral route of CEE administration is unclear and should be assessed further.

Background Heart fats (epicardial and paracardial adipose tissue [PAT]) are greater after menopause. Endogenous estrogen may regulate these fat depots. We evaluated the differential effects of hormone therapy formulations on heart fat accumulations and their associations with coronary artery calcification ( CAC ) progression in recently menopausal women from KEEPS (Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study). Methods and Results KEEPS was a multicenter, randomized, placebo‐controlled trial of the effects of 0.45 mg/d oral conjugated equine estrogens and 50 µg/d transdermal 17β‐estradiol, compared with placebo, on 48‐month progression of subclinical atherosclerosis among 727 early menopausal women. CAC progression was defined if baseline CAC score was 0 and 48‐month CAC score was >0 or if baseline CAC score was >0 and <100 and annualized change in CAC score was ≥10. Of 727 KEEPS participants, 474 (mean age: 52.7 [SD: 2.6]; 78.1% white) had computed tomography–based heart fat and CAC measures at both baseline and 48 months. Compared with women on placebo, women on oral conjugated equine estrogens were less likely to have any increase in epicardial adipose tissue (odds ratio for oral conjugated equine estrogens versus placebo: 0.62 [95% CI, 0.40–0.97]; P =0.03). PAT did not change in any group. Changes in epicardial adipose tissue and PAT did not differ by treatment group. CAC increased in 14% of participants. The assigned treatment modified the association between PAT changes and CAC progression ( P =0.02) such that PAT increases were associated with CAC increases only in the transdermal 17β‐estradiol group. Conclusions In recently menopausal women, oral conjugated equine estrogens may slow epicardial adipose tissue accumulation, whereas transdermal 17β‐estradiol may increase progression of CAC associated with PAT accumulation. Clinical Trial Registration URL : http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 00154180.

Abstract Objective: The Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS) was designed to address gaps in understanding the effects of timely menopausal hormone treatments (HT) on cardiovascular health and other effects of menopause after the premature termination of the Women's Health Initiative. Method: The KEEPS was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial to test the hypothesis that initiation of HT (oral conjugated equine estrogens [o-CEE] or transdermal 17β-estradiol [t-E 2 ]) in healthy, recently postmenopausal women ( n = 727) would slow the progression of atherosclerosis as measured by changes in carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT). Results: After 4 years, neither HT affected the rate of increase in CIMT. There was a trend for reduced accumulation of coronary artery calcium with o-CEE. There were no severe adverse effects, including venous thrombosis. Several ancillary studies demonstrated a positive effect on mood with o-CEE, and reduced hot flashes, improved sleep, and maintenance of bone mineral density with both treatments. Sexual function improved with t-E 2 . There were no significant effects of either treatment on cognition, breast pain, or skin wrinkling. Variants of genes associated with estrogen metabolism influenced the age of menopause and variability in effects of the HT on CIMT. Platelet activation associated with the development of white matter hyperintensities in the brain. Conclusions: KEEPS and its ancillary studies have supported the value and safety of the use of HT in recently postmenopausal women and provide a perspective for future research to optimize HT and health of postmenopausal women. The KEEPS continuation study continues to pursue these issues.

Abstract Objective The objective is to formulate clinical practice guidelines for the pharmacological management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Conclusions Evidence from clinical trials and insights from clinical experience with pharmacologic therapies for osteoporosis were critically evaluated in formulating this guideline for the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Patient preferences, data on adherence and persistence, and risks and benefits from the patient and provider perspectives were also considered in writing committee deliberations. A consensus by the Writing Committee members was achieved for four management principles: (i) The risk of future fractures in postmenopausal women should be determined using country-specific assessment tools to guide decision-making. (ii) Patient preferences should be incorporated into treatment planning. (iii) Nutritional and lifestyle interventions and fall prevention should accompany all pharmacologic regimens to reduce fracture risk. (iv) Multiple pharmacologic therapies are capable of reducing fracture rates in postmenopausal women at risk with acceptable risk-benefit and safety profiles.

Objective: Heart fat depots, within [epicardial adipose tissue (EAT)] and outside [paracardial adipose tissue (PAT)] the pericardium, have been linked to carotid atherosclerosis in various populations. Postmenopausal women have greater volumes of heart fat than premenopausal women. Our previous work suggests that lower endogenous estrogen may contribute to heart fat accumulation, although possibly limited to PAT, while postmenopausal oral hormone therapy (HT) may slow its progression. We evaluated the effect modification of HT use over 48 months on associations between heart fat accumulation and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT) progression in recently postmenopausal women. Methods: The Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS) was a multi-center, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial to investigate effects over 48 months of oral conjugated equine estrogens (o-CEE) and transdermal 17β-estradiol (t-E2), both given with cyclic progesterone, compared to placebo, on progression of CIMT in recently postmenopausal women. EAT and PAT volumes, and CIMT were measured at baseline and at 48 months. Associations between the absolute changes in heart fat volumes and CIMT as well as effect modification by HT type were tested using linear regression, adjusting for age, race, study site, employment status, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medications, insulin resistance index, lipids, body-mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, C-reactive protein, and adipokines. Results: Of 727 randomly assigned women, 467 [mean age (SD): 52.7(2.5); 78.2% Caucasian] had heart fat volumes and CIMT measured at both time points. Overall, changes in EAT and PAT were not associated with CIMT progression; however, assigned treatment significantly modified the association between changes in PAT, but not EAT, and CIMT progression in unadjusted model, P=0.04. In o-CEE group, CIMT progression was 0.028mm (SE:0.01mm) lower, per 1 unit increase in log PAT, than in t-E2 group, P=0.01, and trended 0.017mm (SE:0.01mm) lower than in placebo group, P=0.09. Although adjusted analysis attenuated these findings (P-value for interaction 0.09), differences between o-CEE and t-E2 groups remained significant, P=0.03. Conclusion: HT use modified the association between PAT accumulation, but not EAT, and CIMT progression. Our results suggest a potential beneficial impact of o-CEE (but not transdermal E2) on the relationship between adverse changes in PAT and CIMT. The current findings support the notion that EAT and PAT are distinct fat depots and suggest a complex role of HT in the association between heart fat and CIMT progression in recently postmenopausal women.

ABSTRACT Few pooled analyses of antiresorptive (AR) treatment trials relate short-term changes in bone turnover markers (BTMs) to subsequent fracture reduction. Such information would be useful to assess new ARs or novel dosing regimens. In the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Bone Quality project, we analyzed individual-level data from 28,000 participants enrolled in 11 bisphosphonate (BP) and three selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) placebo-controlled fracture endpoint trials. Using BTM results for two bone formation markers (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP] and pro-collagen I N-propeptide [PINP]) and two bone resorption markers (N-terminal and C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen) and incident fracture outcome data, we performed a meta-regression relating the mean net effect of treatment on change in bone turnover (active minus placebo % difference after 3 to 12 months) to the log of study-wide fracture risk reduction, and used linear regression to plot the best fitting line. Separate analyses were performed for incident morphometric vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 1 to 4 years of follow-up. Change in bone ALP and PINP were available for over 16,000 and 10,000 participants, respectively. For vertebral fracture, the results showed a strong relationship between treatment-related bone ALP or PINP changes and vertebral fracture risk reduction (r2 = 0.82 [p &lt; 0.001] and r2 = 0.75 [p = 0.011], respectively) Relationships were weaker and no longer statistically significant for nonvertebral (r2 = 0.33 [p = 0.053] and r2 = 0.53 [p = 0.065], respectively) and hip fracture (r2 = 0.17 [p = 0.24] and r2 = 0.43 [p = 0.11], respectively) outcomes. Analyses limited to BP trials gave similar results. For all fracture types, relationships were weaker and nonsignificant for bone resorption markers. We conclude that short-term AR treatment-related changes in bone ALP and PINP strongly predict vertebral fracture treatment efficacy, but not nonvertebral or hip fracture treatment efficacy. Change in bone formation markers might be useful to predict the anti-vertebral fracture efficacy of new AR compounds or novel dosing regiments with approved AR drugs. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.