Cummings, Steven R.

Abstract Background: Mammography (digital 2D or digital 3D/tomosynthesis) is the cornerstone of current screening strategies for breast cancer, but new approaches are needed to further reduce the proportion of cancers diagnosed at advanced stages and more effectively identify those women in need of additional testing and biopsies. Circulating cell-free nucleic acids (cfNAs) shed from tumors, isolated from peripheral blood, and analyzed with ultra-deep and broad sequencing of cancer-associated genes, have great potential for early cancer detection. The ultimate goal is to develop blood cfNA cancer screening tests for use in conjunction with established risk factors and/or radiographic features for improved cancer detection. Development of these tests requires large, well-annotated cohorts of asymptomatic participants with adequate volumes of prediagnostic blood. The STRIVE Study cohort was recently established to train and validate cfNA-based tests for early detection of breast cancer. Eligibility criteria and trial design: The STRIVE Study is a new prospective, multi-ethnic mammography cohort that will recruit 120,000 subjects from 15+ US breast cancer screening centers (including Mayo Clinic and Sutter Health sites). Eligibility criteria require only that a participant has a scheduled routine screening mammogram at a participating center and has not received a biopsy prior to the research blood draw. Participants are recruited within 28 days of screening mammography (digital or tomosynthesis), consent electronically, provide blood samples, and complete an on-line risk factor questionnaire. Participants will be followed for all cancer diagnoses, cancer recurrences, and death for at least 5 years. Pertinent medical record information, imaging findings (including breast density), and follow-up data will be transferred electronically to a central database throughout the study period. Additional blood samples will be collected from participants with abnormal mammogram results, or who are diagnosed with cancer, to document and better understand the evolution of cfNA signals. Recruitment began in February 2017. Primary Aims: To train and validate a cfNA blood-based test to identify breast cancer overall in a cohort of women undergoing screening mammography. Statistical Methods: The study will be divided into a training phase (1/3 of participants) and an independent clinical validation phase (remaining 2/3 of participants). In the training phase, statistical machine learning techniques will be used to develop algorithms incorporating cfNA signals, clinical characteristics, or radiological features. In the validation phase, the prespecified locked algorithm developed from the training phase will be clinically validated in an independent group of women. Contact information for people with a specific interest in the trial: Additional details regarding the STRIVE Study are available on the ClinicalTrials.gov website (NCT03085888). For site-specific questions, please call 844-366-9738 for the Mayo Clinic and 1-855-578-7483 for Sutter Health. Citation Format: Liu MC, Cummings S, Vachon CM, Kerlikowske K, Couch FJ, Morris EA, Olson JE, Polley EC, Conners AL, Ellis RL, Patel B, Maimone IV S, Zhang N, Hamilton S, Clarke CA, Allen BA, Maddala T, Hartman A-R. Development of cell-free nucleic acid-based tests for early detection of breast cancer: The STRIVE study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT3-02-01.

Abstract Background: Mammographic density (MD) is a strong breast cancer risk factor. We previously reported associations of percent mammographic density (PMD) with larger and node-positive tumors across all ages, and estrogen receptor (ER)–negative status among women ages <55 years. To provide insight into these associations, we examined the components of PMD [dense area (DA) and nondense area (NDA)] with breast cancer subtypes. Methods: Data were pooled from six studies including 4,095 breast cancers and 8,558 controls. DA and NDA were assessed from digitized film-screen mammograms and standardized across studies. Breast cancer odds by density phenotypes and age according to histopathologic characteristics and receptor status were calculated using polytomous logistic regression. Results: DA was associated with increased breast cancer risk [OR for quartiles: 0.65, 1.00 (Ref), 1.22, 1.55; Ptrend <0.001] and NDA was associated with decreased risk [ORs for quartiles: 1.39, 1.00 (Ref), 0.88, 0.72; Ptrend <0.001] across all ages and invasive tumor characteristics. There were significant trends in the magnitude of associations of both DA and NDA with breast cancer by increasing tumor size (Ptrend < 0.001) but no differences by nodal status. Among women <55 years, DA was more strongly associated with increased risk of ER+ versus ER− tumors (Phet = 0.02), while NDA was more strongly associated with decreased risk of ER− versus ER+ tumors (Phet = 0.03). Conclusions: DA and NDA have differential associations with ER+ versus ER− tumors that vary by age. Impact: DA and NDA are important to consider when developing age- and subtype-specific risk models. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(5); 798–809. ©2015 AACR.

Abstract Appendicular bone mass is inversely related to the risk of hip fracture in short-term prospective studies, but hip fractures typically occur about 30 years after menopause. We developed a model that estimates a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture based on measurement of radial bone mass at age 50 using short-term prospective data relating bone mass to hip fracture, the correlation between bone mass at age 50 and later years, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture and mortality, and prospective data about bone mass and mortality. We estimate that a 50-year-old white woman has a 19% lifetime risk of hip fracture if her radial bone mass is at the 10th percentile for her age and an 11% lifetime risk if her bone mass is at the 90th percentile. Improved measurement techniques that have a higher predictive value for hip fracture in short-term studies could substantially increase this gradient of lifetime risk and therefore be more clinically useful.

Abstract The majority of candidates for breast cancer prevention have not accepted tamoxifen because of the perception of an unfavorable risk/benefit ratio and the acceptance of raloxifene remains to be determined. One means of improving this ratio is to identify women at very high risk of breast cancer. Family history, age, atypia in a benign biopsy, and reproductive factors are the main parameters currently used to determine risk. The most powerful risk factor, mammographic density, is not presently employed routinely. Other potentially important factors are plasma estrogen and androgen levels, bone density, weight gain, age of menopause, and fracture history, which are also not currently used in a comprehensive risk prediction model because of lack of prospective validation. The Breast Cancer Prevention Collaborative Group (BCPCG) met to critically examine and prioritize risk factors that might be selected for further testing by multivariate analysis using existing clinical material. The BCPCG reached a consensus that quantitative breast density, state of the art plasma estrogen and androgen measurements, history of fracture and height loss, BMI, and waist–hip ratio had sufficient priority for further testing. As a practical approach, these parameters could be added to the existing Tyrer–Cuzick model which encompasses factors included in both the Claus and Gail models. The BCPCG analyzed potentially available clinical material from previous prospective studies and determined that a large case/control study to evaluate these new factors might be feasible at this time.

Abstract We studied whether oophorectomy performed after menopause is associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fractures in 6295 Study of Osteoporotic Fractures participants. There was no association between postmenopausal oophorectomy and the risk of hip or vertebral fractures. Introduction: Bilateral oophorectomy after natural menopause has been associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures, potentially because of a decline in serum estradiol and testosterone levels after the oophorectomy. We prospectively tested this hypothesis in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). Materials and Methods: We studied 6295 white women ⩾65 years of age participating in the SOF who were not taking estrogen therapy at baseline. Hip fracture analyses included 708 hip fractures; vertebral fracture analyses included 267 incident vertebral fractures. Baseline serum estradiol and free testosterone values were available in a small subset of participants. Results and Conclusion: There were no significant differences in age, weight, or BMD between the women who underwent postmenopausal oophorectomy (n = 583) and those who did not (n = 5712). Free testosterone levels were significantly lower among women who had a postmenopausal oophorectomy. A history of postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.1; 95% CI = 0.9-1.5) or vertebral fracture (HR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5-1.2). The relationship between oophorectomy and hip fracture was not altered by adding serum estradiol level (HR = 1.3; 95% CI = 0.5-3.2) or serum free testosterone level (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.8-3.7) to the model. In summary, postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fracture in this cohort. These results are in contrast to previous findings, suggesting that the relationship between postmenopausal oophorectomy and fractures is not fully elucidated and that incidental oophorectomy after menopause should still be considered carefully in each potential patient.