Arking, Dan E.

Background Sex‐specific risk management may improve outcomes in congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS). We recently developed a prediction score for cardiac events (CEs) and life‐threatening events (LTEs) in postadolescent women with LQTS. In the present study, we aimed to develop personalized risk estimates for the burden of CEs and LTEs in male adolescents with potassium channel‐mediated LQTS. Methods and Results The prognostic model was derived from the LQTS Registry headquartered in Rochester, NY, comprising 611 LQT1 or LQT2 male adolescents from age 10 through 20 years, using the following variables: genotype/mutation location, QTc‐specific thresholds, history of syncope, and β‐blocker therapy. Anderson‐Gill modeling was performed for the end point of CE burden (total number of syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and appropriate defibrillator shocks). The applicability of the CE prediction model was tested for the end point of the first LTE (excluding syncope and adding sudden cardiac death) using Cox modeling. A total of 270 CEs occurred during follow‐up. The genotype–phenotype risk prediction model identified low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk groups, comprising 74%, 14%, and 12% of the study population, respectively. Compared with the low‐risk group, high‐risk male subjects experienced a pronounced 5.2‐fold increased risk of recurrent CEs ( P <0.001), whereas intermediate‐risk patients had a 2.1‐fold ( P =0.004) increased risk . At age 20 years, the low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk adolescent male patients had on average 0.3, 0.6, and 1.4 CEs per person, respectively. Corresponding 10‐year adjusted probabilities for a first LTE were 2%, 6%, and 8%. Conclusions Personalized genotype–phenotype risk estimates can be used to guide sex‐specific management in male adolescents with potassium channel‐mediated LQTS.

Background The relationship between mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA CN) and cardiovascular disease remains elusive. Methods and Results We performed cross‐sectional and prospective association analyses of blood‐derived mtDNA CN and cardiovascular disease outcomes in 27 316 participants in 8 cohorts of multiple racial and ethnic groups with whole‐genome sequencing. We also performed Mendelian randomization to explore causal relationships of mtDNA CN with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). P <0.01 was used for significance. We validated most of the previously reported associations between mtDNA CN and cardiovascular disease outcomes. For example, 1‐SD unit lower level of mtDNA CN was associated with 1.08 (95% CI, 1.04–1.12; P <0.001) times the hazard for developing incident CHD, adjusting for covariates. Mendelian randomization analyses showed no causal effect from a lower level of mtDNA CN to a higher CHD risk (β=0.091; P =0.11) or in the reverse direction (β=−0.012; P =0.076). Additional bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses revealed that low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol had a causal effect on mtDNA CN (β=−0.084; P <0.001), but the reverse direction was not significant ( P =0.059). No causal associations were observed between mtDNA CN and obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, in either direction. Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses showed no causal effect of CHD on mtDNA CN, controlling for low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol level ( P =0.52), whereas there was a strong direct causal effect of higher low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol on lower mtDNA CN, adjusting for CHD status (β=−0.092; P <0.001). Conclusions Our findings indicate that high low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol may underlie the complex relationships between mtDNA CN and vascular atherosclerosis.

Background We aimed to provide personalized risk estimates for cardiac events (CEs) and life‐threatening events in women with either type 1 or type 2 long QT. Methods and Results The prognostic model was derived from the Rochester Long QT Syndrome Registry, comprising 767 women with type 1 long QT (n=404) and type 2 long QT (n=363) from age 15 through 60 years. The risk prediction model included the following variables: genotype/mutation location, QTc‐specific thresholds, history of syncope, and β‐blocker therapy. A model was developed with the end point of CEs (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, or long QT syndrome–related sudden cardiac death), and was applied with the end point of life‐threatening events (aborted cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, or appropriate defibrillator shocks). External validation was performed with data from the Mayo Clinic Genetic Heart Rhythm Clinic (N=467; type 1 long QT [n=286] and type 2 long QT [n=181]). The cumulative follow‐up duration among the 767 enrolled women was 22 243 patient‐years, during which 323 patients (42%) experienced ≥1 CE. Based on genotype‐phenotype data, we identified 3 risk groups with 10‐year projected rates of CEs ranging from 15%, 29%, to 51%. The corresponding 10‐year projected rates of life‐threatening events were 2%, 5%, and 14%. C statistics for the prediction model for the 2 respective end points were 0.68 (95% CI 0.65–0.71) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.76). Corresponding C statistics for the model in the external validation Mayo Clinic cohort were 0.65 (95% CI 0.60–0.70) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.84). Conclusions This is the first risk prediction model that provides absolute risk estimates for CEs and life‐threatening events in women with type 1 or type 2 long QT based on personalized genotype‐phenotype data. The projected risk estimates can be used to guide female‐specific management in long QT syndrome.

Genome-wide association studies have identified >50 common variants associated with kidney function, but these variants do not fully explain the variation in eGFR. We performed a two-stage meta-analysis of associations between genotypes from the Illumina exome array and eGFR on the basis of serum creatinine (eGFRcrea) among participants of European ancestry from the CKDGen Consortium ( n Stage1 : 111,666; n Stage2 : 48,343). In single-variant analyses, we identified single nucleotide polymorphisms at seven new loci associated with eGFRcrea ( PPM1J , EDEM3, ACP1, SPEG, EYA4, CYP1A1 , and ATXN2L ; P Stage1 <3.7×10 −7 ), of which most were common and annotated as nonsynonymous variants. Gene-based analysis identified associations of functional rare variants in three genes with eGFRcrea, including a novel association with the SOS Ras/Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 2 gene, SOS2 ( P =5.4×10 −8 by sequence kernel association test). Experimental follow-up in zebrafish embryos revealed changes in glomerular gene expression and renal tubule morphology in the embryonic kidney of acp1- and sos2 -knockdowns. These developmental abnormalities associated with altered blood clearance rate and heightened prevalence of edema. This study expands the number of loci associated with kidney function and identifies novel genes with potential roles in kidney formation.