Lopes, Coeli M.

Background We aimed to provide personalized risk estimates for cardiac events (CEs) and life‐threatening events in women with either type 1 or type 2 long QT. Methods and Results The prognostic model was derived from the Rochester Long QT Syndrome Registry, comprising 767 women with type 1 long QT (n=404) and type 2 long QT (n=363) from age 15 through 60 years. The risk prediction model included the following variables: genotype/mutation location, QTc‐specific thresholds, history of syncope, and β‐blocker therapy. A model was developed with the end point of CEs (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, or long QT syndrome–related sudden cardiac death), and was applied with the end point of life‐threatening events (aborted cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, or appropriate defibrillator shocks). External validation was performed with data from the Mayo Clinic Genetic Heart Rhythm Clinic (N=467; type 1 long QT [n=286] and type 2 long QT [n=181]). The cumulative follow‐up duration among the 767 enrolled women was 22 243 patient‐years, during which 323 patients (42%) experienced ≥1 CE. Based on genotype‐phenotype data, we identified 3 risk groups with 10‐year projected rates of CEs ranging from 15%, 29%, to 51%. The corresponding 10‐year projected rates of life‐threatening events were 2%, 5%, and 14%. C statistics for the prediction model for the 2 respective end points were 0.68 (95% CI 0.65–0.71) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.76). Corresponding C statistics for the model in the external validation Mayo Clinic cohort were 0.65 (95% CI 0.60–0.70) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.84). Conclusions This is the first risk prediction model that provides absolute risk estimates for CEs and life‐threatening events in women with type 1 or type 2 long QT based on personalized genotype‐phenotype data. The projected risk estimates can be used to guide female‐specific management in long QT syndrome.

Background—Current clinical diagnosis of long-QT syndrome (LQTS) includes genetic testing of family members of mutation-positive patients. The present study was designed to assess the clinical course of individuals who are found negative for the LQTS-causing mutation in their families.Methods and Results—Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the risk for cardiac events (comprising syncope, aborted cardiac arrest [ACA], or sudden cardiac death [SCD]) from birth through age 40 years among 1828 subjects from the LQTS Registry who were found negative for their family LQTS-causing mutation. The median QTc of study subjects was 423 ms (interquartile range, 402–442 ms). The cumulative probability of a first syncope through age 40 years was 15%. However, only 2 patients (0.1%) had ACA, and none died suddenly during follow-up. Independent risk factors for syncope in genotype-negative subjects included female sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60;P=0.002), prolonged QTc (HR=1.63 per 100 ms increment,P=0.02), family history of ACA or SCD (HR=1.89,P=0.002), and LQT2 versus LQT1 family mutation (HR=1.41,P=0.03). Subgroup analysis showed that the presence of theK897Tpolymorphism in the LQT2 gene in an affected family was associated with an 11-fold (P=0.001) increase in the risk of recurrent syncope in genotype-negative subjects.Conclusions—Our findings suggest that cardiac events among genotype-negative family members of LQTS patients are dominated by nonfatal syncopal episodes without occurrence of sudden cardiac death. The risk for nonfatal events in this population may be mediated by the presence of common polymorphisms in LQTS genes.