Jouven, Xavier

Importance Accurate prediction of patient mortality after kidney transplant is an unmet need. Objective To develop and validate an integrative prediction model that predicts short- and long-term patient mortality for kidney recipients. Design, Setting, and Participants This international cohort study included patients who underwent transplants between 2004 and 2023 from 14 academic medical centers from Europe and the US. The derivation cohort consisted of 1566 consecutive adult kidney recipients in a deeply phenotyped cohort prospectively recruited in 1 French center between 2004 and 2014. External validation cohorts consisted of 10 951 kidney recipients from 7 centers in France, 3 centers in Europe, and 3 centers in North America who underwent kidney transplants between 2006 and 2023. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2025. Main Outcome and Measures All-cause mortality was assessed, and 121 candidate prognostic factors, comprising demographics and clinical, biological, imaging, and immunological parameters, were collected. Results Among 12 517 kidney transplant recipients, including 1566 in the derivation cohort (mean [SD] age, 50.05 [14.31] years; 942 male [60.15%]) and 10 951 in validation cohorts (mean [SD] age, 53.32 [13.97] years; 6766 male [61.78%]), 2486 patients (19.9%) died after a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.08 (2.97-7.00) years. Fourteen prognostic factors (including clinical, biological, and imaging risk factors) were independently associated with patient death (eg, patient age: hazard ratio per 1-year increase in age, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.06-1.08]; P < .001) and were combined into a risk prediction model (mBox). The model exhibited accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C statistics of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.82) at 1 and 10 years, respectively, after the transplant. Abbreviated models were developed and validated to ensure model generalizability. Performance of abbreviated models was confirmed in external validation cohorts from France (C statistic, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.78]), Europe (C statistic, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.72-0.76]), the US (C statistic, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.70-0.78]), the Greater Paris University Hospital database (C statistic, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81]), and the University of California at San Francisco database (C statistic, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65-0.74]). The model was also validated in a series of subpopulations (eg, women vs men: C statistic, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.84] vs 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.82]) and clinical scenarios (eg, before COVID-19 era: C statistic, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81]) with good and stable performance. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, an accurate prediction model for mortality among kidney recipients, computable at the time of transplant, was developed and externally validated. Results suggest that this model may help stratify patient risk of death, allowing for improved medical decisions.

Abstract Objective To compare the performance of a newly developed race-free kidney recipient specific glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equation with the three current main equations for measuring GFR in kidney transplant recipients. Design Development and validation study Setting 17 cohorts in Europe, the United States, and Australia (14 transplant centres, three clinical trials). Participants 15 489 adults (3622 in development cohort (Necker, Saint Louis, and Toulouse hospitals, France), 11 867 in multiple external validation cohorts) who received kidney transplants between 1 January 2000 and 1 January 2021. Main outcome measure The main outcome measure was GFR, measured according to local practice. Performance of the GFR equations was assessed using P 30 (proportion of estimated GFR (eGFR) within 30% of measured GFR (mGFR)) and correct classification (agreement between eGFR and mGFR according to GFR stages). The race-free equation, based on creatinine level, age, and sex, was developed using additive and multiplicative linear regressions, and its performance was compared with the three current main GFR equations: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2009 equation, and race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Results The study included 15 489 participants, with 50 464 mGFR and eGFR values. The mean GFR was 53.18 mL/min/1.73m 2 (SD 17.23) in the development cohort and 55.90 mL/min/1.73m 2 (19.69) in the external validation cohorts. Among the current GFR equations, the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation showed the lowest performance compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009 equations. When race was included in the kidney recipient specific GFR equation, performance did not increase. The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation showed significantly improved performance compared with the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation and performed well in the external validation cohorts (P 30 ranging from 73.0% to 91.3%). The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation performed well in several subpopulations of kidney transplant recipients stratified by race (P 30 73.0-91.3%), sex (72.7-91.4%), age (70.3-92.0%), body mass index (64.5-100%), donor type (58.5-92.9%), donor age (68.3-94.3%), treatment (78.5-85.2%), creatinine level (72.8-91.3%), GFR measurement method (73.0-91.3%), and timing of GFR measurement post-transplant (72.9-95.5%). An online application was developed that estimates GFR based on recipient’s creatinine level, age, and sex ( https://transplant-prediction-system.shinyapps.io/eGFR_equation_KTX/ ). Conclusion A new race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation was developed and validated using multiple, large, international cohorts of kidney transplant recipients. The equation showed high accuracy and outperformed the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation that was developed in individuals with native kidneys. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05229939 .

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening vascular event with environmental and genetic determinants. Recent VTE genome-wide association studies (GWAS) meta-analyses involved nearly 30 000 VTE cases and identified up to 40 genetic loci associated with VTE risk, including loci not previously suspected to play a role in hemostasis. The aim of our research was to expand discovery of new genetic loci associated with VTE by using cross-ancestry genomic resources. Methods: We present new cross-ancestry meta-analyzed GWAS results involving up to 81 669 VTE cases from 30 studies, with replication of novel loci in independent populations and loci characterization through in silico genomic interrogations. Results: In our genetic discovery effort that included 55 330 participants with VTE (47 822 European, 6320 African, and 1188 Hispanic ancestry), we identified 48 novel associations, of which 34 were replicated after correction for multiple testing. In our combined discovery-replication analysis (81 669 VTE participants) and ancestry-stratified meta-analyses (European, African, and Hispanic), we identified another 44 novel associations, which are new candidate VTE-associated loci requiring replication. In total, across all GWAS meta-analyses, we identified 135 independent genomic loci significantly associated with VTE risk. A genetic risk score of the significantly associated loci in Europeans identified a 6-fold increase in risk for those in the top 1% of scores compared with those with average scores. We also identified 31 novel transcript associations in transcriptome-wide association studies and 8 novel candidate genes with protein quantitative-trait locus Mendelian randomization analyses. In silico interrogations of hemostasis and hematology traits and a large phenome-wide association analysis of the 135 GWAS loci provided insights to biological pathways contributing to VTE, with some loci contributing to VTE through well-characterized coagulation pathways and others providing new data on the role of hematology traits, particularly platelet function. Many of the replicated loci are outside of known or currently hypothesized pathways to thrombosis. Conclusions: Our cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses identified new loci associated with VTE. These findings highlight new pathways to thrombosis and provide novel molecules that may be useful in the development of improved antithrombosis treatments.

Abstract Aims To evaluate the association of basic life support with survival after sports-related sudden cardiac arrest (SR-SCA). Methods and results In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a search of several databases from each database inception to 31 July 2021 without language restrictions was conducted. Studies were considered eligible if they evaluated one of three scenarios in patients with SR-SCA: (i) bystander presence, (ii) bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), or (iii) bystander automated external defibrillator (AED) use and provided information on survival. Risk of bias was evaluated using Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions. The primary outcome was survival at the longest follow up. The meta-analysis was conducted using the random-effects model. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach was used to rate certainty in the evidence. In total, 28 non-randomized studies were included. The meta-analysis showed significant benefit on survival in all three groups: bystander presence [odds ratio (OR) 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48–4.37; I2 = 25%; 9 studies—988 patients], bystander CPR (OR 3.84, 95% CI 2.36–6.25; I2 = 54%; 23 studies—2523 patients), and bystander AED use (OR 5.25, 95% CI 3.58–7.70; I2 = 16%; 19 studies—1227 patients). The GRADE certainty of evidence was judged to be moderate. Conclusion In patients with SR-SCA, bystander presence, bystander CPR, and bystander AED use were significantly associated with survival. These results highlight the importance of witness intervention and encourage countries to develop their first aid training policy and AED installation in sport settings.

Fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) is a nonatherosclerotic vascular disease leading to arterial stenosis, aneurysm and dissection, mainly in renal and carotid arteries. FMD has higher prevalence in females (80-90%) and is associated with hypertension and stroke. The pathophysiology of FMD is unclear and a genetic origin is suspected. We performed a genetic association study in European ancestry individuals. The discovery included 249 cases and 689 controls, in which we analyzed ∼26K common variants (MAF>0.05) using an exome-chip array. We followed up 13 loci (P<10-4) in 393 cases and 2537 controls and replicated a signal on Chr6. Three additional studies (combined Ncases=512, Ncontrols=669) confirmed this association, with an overall OR of 1.39, (P=7.4х10e-10 , All Ncases=1154, All Ncontrols=3895). The FMD risk variant is intronic to the phosphatase and actin regulator 1 gene (PHACTR1), involved in angiogenesis and cell migration. PHACTR1 is a risk locus for coronary artery disease, migraine, and cervical artery dissection, which may occur in FMD. We found a significant association between the risk allele and higher central pulse pressure (P=0.0009), increased intima media thickness (P=0.001) and wall cross-sectional area (P=0.003) of carotids assessed by echotracking in 3800 population-based individuals. The correlation of genotypes with the expression of PHACTR1 in primary cultured human fibroblasts showed higher expression in FMD risk allele carriers, compared to non carriers (N=57, P=0.02). Finally, Phactr1 knockdown of zebrafish showed significantly dilated vessels (P=0.003) indicating impaired vascular development. In conclusion, we report the first risk locus for FMD with the largest genetic association study conducted so far. Our data reveal a common genetic variant at PHACTR1 providing indices of shared pathophysiology between FMD and other cardiovascular and neurovascular diseases.

Introduction: Conflicting results exist regarding the impact of gender on survival after Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA). Hypothesis: Assess association between female gender and survival after SCA Methods: An electronic search of Embase, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process & Non-Indexed Citations and EBM Reviews - Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, EBM Reviews - Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Google was conducted (January 1948 to January 2014) for studies of any study design and language, examining the gender effect on survival at hospital discharge after a SCA. Two independent reviewers selected studies and extracted data. The inter-rater agreements kappa were measured at the first and second selection steps. Moreover, the pooled OR and 95% CI, concerning women vs. men survival at hospital discharge after an OHCA were calculated with a random effect model. Subgroups analyses were performed, according to the cardiac origin of OHCAs and according to the study quality. Study quality criteria were based on the New Castle Ottawa Scale. Results: After a detailed screening of 556 citations, 12 studies were identified involving 404 621 patients. The inter-rater agreements kappa was high for the 2 study selection steps (0.91 and 1). In most studies, women were older and had less favorable baseline characteristics including a lower prevalence of witnessed-OHCA, OHCA in a public location, bystander cardio-pulmonary resuscitation and shockable rhythms compared to men. However and after adjustment for these differences, women were more likely to survive at hospital discharge (N=12; OR: 1.11 [1.02-1.21]; p=0.013). This result remains in studies analyzing OHCA of presumed cardiac origin (N=7; OR: 1.17 [1.03-1.34]; p=0.017) and in studies of high quality (N=7; OR: 1.11 [1.02-1.21]; p=0.017). Conclusion: Despite less favorable baseline characteristics, women are more likely to survive at hospital discharge after an OHCA. Further studies are needed to explain this paradox.

Abstract The authors have requested that this preprint be removed from Research Square.

Background— Atrial fibrillation (AF) often coexists with myocardial infarction (MI), yet its prognostic influence is disputed. Prior reports studied the relationship of AF during early hospitalization for acute MI to the risk of death and could not address the timing of AF in relation to the MI (ie, before, during, after). Furthermore, as data come mostly from clinical trials, their applicability to the community is uncertain. The aims of our study were to assess the occurrence of AF among MI patients, determine whether it has changed over time, and quantify its impact and the impact of its timing on mortality after MI. Methods and Results— This was a community-based cohort of 3220 patients hospitalized with incident (first-ever) MI from 1983 to 2007 in Olmsted County, MN. Atrial fibrillation was identified by diagnostic codes and ECG. Outcomes were all-cause and cardiovascular death. Atrial fibrillation before MI was identified in 304 patients, and 729 developed AF after MI (218 [30%] within 2 days, 119 [16%] between 3 and 30 days, and 392 [54%] >30 days post-MI). The cumulative incidence of AF after MI at 5 years was 19% and did not change over the calendar year of MI (the incidence of AF was the same regardless of when the MI occurred). During a mean follow-up of 6.6 years, 1638 deaths occurred. AF was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 3.77 [3.37 to 4.21]), independently of clinical characteristics at the time of MI and heart failure. This risk differed markedly according to the timing of AF, and was the greatest for AF occurring >30 days post MI (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.63 [1.37 to 1.93] for AF within 2 days, 1.81 [0.45 to 2.27] for AF between 3 and 30 days, and 2.58 [2.21 to 3.00] for AF >30 days post MI). Conclusions— In the community, AF is frequent in the setting of MI. Atrial fibrillation carries an excess risk of death, which is the highest for AF developing >30 days after MI.