Fowler, Kevin John

Importance Accurate prediction of patient mortality after kidney transplant is an unmet need. Objective To develop and validate an integrative prediction model that predicts short- and long-term patient mortality for kidney recipients. Design, Setting, and Participants This international cohort study included patients who underwent transplants between 2004 and 2023 from 14 academic medical centers from Europe and the US. The derivation cohort consisted of 1566 consecutive adult kidney recipients in a deeply phenotyped cohort prospectively recruited in 1 French center between 2004 and 2014. External validation cohorts consisted of 10 951 kidney recipients from 7 centers in France, 3 centers in Europe, and 3 centers in North America who underwent kidney transplants between 2006 and 2023. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2025. Main Outcome and Measures All-cause mortality was assessed, and 121 candidate prognostic factors, comprising demographics and clinical, biological, imaging, and immunological parameters, were collected. Results Among 12 517 kidney transplant recipients, including 1566 in the derivation cohort (mean [SD] age, 50.05 [14.31] years; 942 male [60.15%]) and 10 951 in validation cohorts (mean [SD] age, 53.32 [13.97] years; 6766 male [61.78%]), 2486 patients (19.9%) died after a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.08 (2.97-7.00) years. Fourteen prognostic factors (including clinical, biological, and imaging risk factors) were independently associated with patient death (eg, patient age: hazard ratio per 1-year increase in age, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.06-1.08]; P < .001) and were combined into a risk prediction model (mBox). The model exhibited accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C statistics of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.82) at 1 and 10 years, respectively, after the transplant. Abbreviated models were developed and validated to ensure model generalizability. Performance of abbreviated models was confirmed in external validation cohorts from France (C statistic, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.78]), Europe (C statistic, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.72-0.76]), the US (C statistic, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.70-0.78]), the Greater Paris University Hospital database (C statistic, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81]), and the University of California at San Francisco database (C statistic, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65-0.74]). The model was also validated in a series of subpopulations (eg, women vs men: C statistic, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.84] vs 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.82]) and clinical scenarios (eg, before COVID-19 era: C statistic, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81]) with good and stable performance. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, an accurate prediction model for mortality among kidney recipients, computable at the time of transplant, was developed and externally validated. Results suggest that this model may help stratify patient risk of death, allowing for improved medical decisions.

Background and objectives Presymptomatic testing is available for early diagnosis of hereditary autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). However, the complex ethical and psychosocial implications can make decision-making challenging and require an understanding of patients’ values, goals and priorities. This study aims to describe patient and caregiver beliefs and expectations regarding presymptomatic testing for ADPKD. Design, setting and participants 154 participants (120 patients and 34 caregivers) aged 18 years and over from eight centres in Australia, France and Korea participated in 17 focus groups. Transcripts were analysed thematically. Results We identified five themes: avoiding financial disadvantage (insecurity in the inability to obtain life insurance, limited work opportunities, financial burden); futility in uncertainty (erratic and diverse manifestations of disease limiting utility, taking preventive actions in vain, daunted by perplexity of results, unaware of risk of inheriting ADPKD); lacking autonomy and support in decisions (overwhelmed by ambiguous information, medicalising family planning, family pressures); seizing control of well-being (gaining confidence in early detection, allowing preparation for the future, reassurance in family resilience); and anticipating impact on quality of life (reassured by lack of symptoms, judging value of life with ADPKD). Conclusions For patients with ADPKD, presymptomatic testing provides an opportunity to take ownership of their health through family planning and preventive measures. However, these decisions can be wrought with tensions and uncertainty about prognostic implications, and the psychosocial and financial burden of testing. Healthcare professionals should focus on genetic counselling, mental health and providing education to patients’ families to support informed decision-making. Policymakers should consider the cost burden and risk of discrimination when informing government policies. Finally, patients are recommended to focus on self-care from an early age.

Background. Kidney transplantation confers substantial survival and quality of life benefits for many patients with end-stage kidney disease compared with dialysis, but complications and side effects of immunosuppression can impair participation in daily life activities. Life participation is a critically important patient-reported outcome for kidney transplant recipients but is infrequently and inconsistently measured in trials. We convened a consensus workshop on establishing an outcome measure for life participation for use in all trials in kidney transplantation. Methods. Twenty-five (43%) kidney transplant recipients/caregivers and 33 (57%) health professionals from 8 countries participated in 6 facilitated breakout group discussions. Transcripts were analyzed thematically. Results. Four themes were identified. Returning to normality conveyed the patients’ goals to fulfill their roles (ie, in their family, work, and community) and reestablish a normal lifestyle after transplant. Recognizing the diverse meaning and activities of “life” explicitly acknowledged life participation as a subjective concept that could refer to different activities (eg, employment, recreation, family duties) for each individual patient. Capturing vulnerability and fluctuations posttransplant (eg, due to complications and side-effects) distinguished between experiences in the first year posttransplant and the long-term impact of transplantation. Having a scientifically rigorous, feasible, and meaningful measure was expected to enable consistent and frequent assessment of life participation in trials in kidney transplantation. Conclusions. A feasible and validated core outcome measure for life participation is needed so that this critically important patient-reported outcome can be consistently and meaningfully assessed in trials in kidney transplantation to inform decision making and care of recipients.