Kelly, Paul

Abstract During the 20th century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early-industrialized regions in North America, Europe, and Oceania. At the turn of the 21st century, incidence of IBD increased in newly-industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, while prevalence in early-industrialized regions started to grow steadily. Changes in incidence and prevalence denote evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: Stage 1 (Emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (Acceleration in Incidence), characterized by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (Compounding Prevalence), characterized by decelerating, plateauing, or declining incidence and steadily rising prevalence. A fourth stage (Prevalence Equilibrium) has been proposed where the slope of prevalence plateaus due to shifting demographics of an aging IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have been theoretical without specific incidence/prevalence indicators defining transition points. Using real-world data from 490 population-based studies comprising 80 global regions and spanning over a century (1920–2023), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model transition towards stage 4. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages allows healthcare systems to better prepare for the future worldwide burden of IBD.

Abstract Background and study aims Limited evidence suggests that endoscopy capacity in sub-Saharan Africa is insufficient to meet the levels of gastrointestinal disease. We aimed to quantify the human and material resources for endoscopy services in eastern African countries, and to identify barriers to expanding endoscopy capacity. Patients and methods In partnership with national professional societies, digestive healthcare professionals in participating countries were invited to complete an online survey between August 2018 and August 2020. Results Of 344 digestive healthcare professionals in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, 87 (25.3 %) completed the survey, reporting data for 91 healthcare facilities and identifying 20 additional facilities. Most respondents (73.6 %) perform endoscopy and 59.8 % perform at least one therapeutic modality. Facilities have a median of two functioning gastroscopes and one functioning colonoscope each. Overall endoscopy capacity, adjusted for non-response and additional facilities, includes 0.12 endoscopists, 0.12 gastroscopes, and 0.09 colonoscopes per 100,000 population in the participating countries. Adjusted maximum upper gastrointestinal and lower gastrointestinal endoscopic capacity were 106 and 45 procedures per 100,000 persons per year, respectively. These values are 1 % to 10 % of those reported from resource-rich countries. Most respondents identified a lack of endoscopic equipment, lack of trained endoscopists and costs as barriers to provision of endoscopy services. Conclusions Endoscopy capacity is severely limited in eastern sub-Saharan Africa, despite a high burden of gastrointestinal disease. Expanding capacity requires investment in additional human and material resources, and technological innovations that improve the cost and sustainability of endoscopic services.

PURPOSE The eastern corridor of Africa is affected by a high burden of esophageal cancer (EC), with > 90% of patients presenting with advanced disease. Self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) have been previously reported as safe and effective for palliation of malignant dysphagia in resource-limited settings; however, access is limited throughout Eastern Africa. METHODS In response to demand for palliative interventions for patients with dysphagia because of EC, the African Esophageal Cancer Consortium (AfrECC) partnered with the Clinton Health Access Initiative to improve access to SEMS in Eastern Africa. We undertook a stepwise implementation approach to (1) identify barriers to SEMS access, (2) conduct a market analysis, (3) select an industry partner, (4) establish regulatory and procurement processes, (5) develop endoscopic training resources, (6) create a medical device registry, and (7) establish principles of accountability. RESULTS Following an evaluation of market demand and potential SEMS manufacturers, Boston Scientific Corporation announced its commitment to launch an access program to provide esophageal SEMS to patients in Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia at a subsidized price. Parallel regulatory and procurement processes were established in each participating country. Endoscopy training courses were designed and conducted, using the Training-of-Trainers model. A device registry was created to centralize data for quality control and to monitor channels of SEMS distribution. Principles of accountability were developed to guide the sustainability of this endeavor. CONCLUSION The AfrECC Stent Access Initiative is an example of a multisector partnership formed to provide an innovative solution to align regional needs with a supply chain for a high-priority medical device.

Background Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an asymptomatic intestinal disorder affecting populations living in conditions of poor sanitation and hygiene. The study tested intestinal barrier function in infants with EED. Methods We prospectively studied an advanced high-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry assay of urine collected after oral intake of the monosaccharide, L-rhamnose and the disaccharide, lactulose, in 112 children from three continents. Findings Compared to the US cohort (n=27), the cohorts of children from Peru (n=19) and Zambia (n=85) were older with evidence of growth impairment. The median (range) of age (months) was 8.0 (2.0 to 13.0), 27.0 (15.0 to 29.0) and 21.0 (12.0 to 36.0), respectively. The median (range) of height for age Z score was −0.1 (−1.8 to 2.4), −1.8 (−3.3 to −0.2) and −2.3 (−8.5 to 1.2), respectively. Among children with valid sugar data (n=22 USA, n=19 Peru, n=73 Zambia), there were no significant differences in the median rhamnose urine concentrations between the three groups. The median (range) lactulose concentration (µg/mL) was 6.78 (0.29 to 31.90), 47.60 (4.23 to 379.00) and 75.40 (0.67 to 873.00) in the US, Peruvian and Zambian cohorts, respectively (p<0.001). The lactulose/rhamnose ratio (LRR) was higher in cohorts from Peru (0.75, 0.15, 5.02) and Zambia (2.26, 0.08, 14.48) compared to the US (0.14, 0.06, 1.00) cohort (p<0.001). In a multivariate effect modification model, higher weight-for-age z scores were associated with lower post-dose lactulose when rhamnose excretion was constant (p=0.003). Conclusions This non-invasive two saccharide permeability protocol measures changes in intestinal permeability in children with EED and permits the identification of individuals for interventional trials.