Citations 2
The Global Evolution of Inflammatory Bowel Disease across Four Epidemiologic Stages
Hracs, Lindsay , Gorospe, Julia, Buie, Michael , Quan, Joshua , Goddard, Quinn , Caplan, Léa , Markovinović, Ante , Abbey, Yvonne , Abdullah, Murdani , Balderramo, Domingo , Bernstein, Çharles N. , Burisch, Johan , Chong, Vui Heng , Dotan, Iris , Ouali, Sara El , Forss, Anders, Dao, Hang Viet , Baños, Fabián Juliao , Kaibullayeva, Jamilya , Kobayashi, Taku , Miao, Yinglei , Ng, Ka Kei , Olén, Ola , Simadibrata, Marcellus , Sun, Yang , Turner, Dan , Vergara, Beatriz, Wei, Shu Chen, Yang, Suk‐Kyun , Kobayashi, Taku , Kaplan, Gilaad G. , Windsor, Joseph W. , Cummings, Michael K. , Coward, Stephanie B. , Williamson, Tyler S. , Abreu, María T. , Ahuja, Vineet , Ali, Raja Affendi Raja , Altuwaijri, Mansour A. , Banerjee, Rupa , Benchimol, Eric I. , Bernstein, Charles Noah , Brunet, Eduard , Dutta, Usha , Forbes, Angela J. , Forss, Anders, Gearry, Richard B. , Hartono, Juanda Leo , Hilmi, Ida Normiha , Hodges, Phoebe , Jones, Gareth‐Rhys , Kelly, Paul , Kotze, Paulo Gustavo , Lakatos, Péter L. , Lees, Charlie W. , Limsrivilai, Julajak , Lo, Bobby Zhao Sheng , Loftus, Edward V. , Ludvigsson, Jonas F. , Mak, Joyce Wing Yan , Okabayashi, Shinji , Panaccione, Remo , Paudel, Mukesh Sharma , Quaresma, Abel Botelho , Rubin, David T. , Suzuki, Hidekazu , Toro, Martín , Wei, Shu Chen, Yamamoto-Furusho, Jesus , Ng, Siew C.
No container title available | January 23, 2024 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: No page available
Abstract During the 20th century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early-industrialized regions in North America, Europe, and Oceania. At the turn of the 21st century, incidence of IBD increased in newly-industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, while prevalence in early-industrialized regions started to grow steadily. Changes in incidence and prevalence denote evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: Stage 1 (Emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (Acceleration in Incidence), characterized by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (Compounding Prevalence), characterized by decelerating, plateauing, or declining incidence and steadily rising prevalence. A fourth stage (Prevalence Equilibrium) has been proposed where the slope of prevalence plateaus due to shifting demographics of an aging IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have been theoretical without specific incidence/prevalence indicators defining transition points. Using real-world data from 490 population-based studies comprising 80 global regions and spanning over a century (1920–2023), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model transition towards stage 4. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages allows healthcare systems to better prepare for the future worldwide burden of IBD.
The Global Incidence of Peptic Ulcer Disease Is Decreasing Since the Turn of the 21st Century: A Study of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
Azhari, Hassan, King, James A. , Mak, Joyce W.Y., Ben‐Horin, Shomron , Loftus, Edward V. , Burisch, Johan , Lakatos, Péter L. , Padilla, Francisco Javier Bosques, Underwood, Fox E., Kaplan, Gilaad G , Loftus, Edward V , King, James , Lakatos, Peter L , Coward, Stephanie B. , Windsor, Joseph W. , Ma, Christopher , Shah, Shailja C. , Ng, Siew C. , Mak, Joyce Wing Yan , Kotze, Paulo Gustavo , Lees, Charlie W. , Gearry, Richard B. , Calvet, Xavier , Kaplan, Gilaad G.
American Journal of Gastroenterology | June 2, 2022 | Volume: 117 | Issue: 9 | Pages: 1419-1427
INTRODUCTION: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common cause of hospitalization worldwide. We assessed temporal trends in hospitalization for PUD in 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since the turn of the 21st century. METHODS: The OECD database contains data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. The incidence of PUD was forecasted to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The overall median hospitalization rate was 42.4 with an interquartile range of 29.7–60.6 per 100,000 person-years. On average, hospitalization rates (AAPC = −3.9%; 95% CI: −4.4, −3.3) and morality rates (AAPC = −4.7%; 95% CI: −5.6, −3.8) for PUD have decreased from 2000 to 2019 globally. The forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalizations in 2021 ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 countries in the OECD, 329,000 people are estimated to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021. DISCUSSION: PUD remains an important cause of hospitalization worldwide. Reassuringly, hospitalizations and mortality for PUD have consistently been falling in OECD countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum.