King, James A.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Recent changes in European diagnostic criteria allow for serologic diagnosis of celiac disease in children. Those guidelines have not been adopted in North America; hence, we aim to assess the positive predictive value (PPV) of tissue transglutaminase (tTG) immunoglobulin A (IgA) assays used in North America in identifying histologic findings of celiac disease. METHODS Multicenter retrospective cohort study of children (<18 years) with an elevated tTG IgA within 6 months of an esophagogastroduodenoscopy between January 2016 and December 2021. Biopsy-confirmed celiac disease was determined by the presence of intraepithelial lymphocytosis and villous atrophy. The primary outcomes were the PPV of an elevated tTG IgA and tTG IgA greater than or equal to 10 times the upper limit of normal (10× ULN). RESULTS Overall, 4019 children (63.3% female; 9% type 1 diabetes, 2% Down syndrome) were included. Histologic findings were consistent with celiac disease for 3321 children (PPV = 82.6% [95% CI, 81.4–83.8]). Among the 1739/4019 (43.2%) children with tTG IgA greater than or equal to 10× ULN, 1651 had biopsy-confirmed celiac disease (PPV10× = 94.9% [95% CI, 93.8–95.9]). Five percent (88/1739) of children did not have histologic findings of celiac disease, including 41/1739 (2%) with normal histology. Diagnostic accuracy of tTG IgA varied widely among assays used in North America (PPV range: 71.5%–88.8%; PPV10× range: 89.3%–97.3%). Assays performed worse in children with type 1 diabetes (PPV10× 89% [95% CI, 83.5–92.8]). CONCLUSIONS Elevated tTG IgA in isolation is insufficient to confidently diagnose celiac disease. As tTG assay performance varied widely, diagnostic confirmation by a specialist prior to dietary changes is essential.

INTRODUCTION: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common cause of hospitalization worldwide. We assessed temporal trends in hospitalization for PUD in 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since the turn of the 21st century. METHODS: The OECD database contains data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. The incidence of PUD was forecasted to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The overall median hospitalization rate was 42.4 with an interquartile range of 29.7–60.6 per 100,000 person-years. On average, hospitalization rates (AAPC = −3.9%; 95% CI: −4.4, −3.3) and morality rates (AAPC = −4.7%; 95% CI: −5.6, −3.8) for PUD have decreased from 2000 to 2019 globally. The forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalizations in 2021 ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 countries in the OECD, 329,000 people are estimated to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021. DISCUSSION: PUD remains an important cause of hospitalization worldwide. Reassuringly, hospitalizations and mortality for PUD have consistently been falling in OECD countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum.

Objectives To assess the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease (CD) in Sweden and examine the incidence of duodenal/jejunal biopsies with normal mucosa over time as a proxy for CD awareness and investigation. Design Nationwide population-based cohort study 1990–2015 based on biopsy reports indicating villous atrophy (VA) or normal mucosa in the duodenum/jejunum. Results We identified 44 771 individuals (63% females) with a biopsy report specifying VA and 412 279 (62% females) with a biopsy report indicating normal mucosa (without a prior biopsy indicating VA). The median age at diagnosis of CD was 28 years. The mean age-standardised incidence rate during the study period was 19.0 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 17.3 to 20.8). The incidence reached a peak in 1994 for both sexes and a second higher peak in 2002–2003 for females and in 2006 for males. The lifetime risk of developing CD was 1.8% (2.3% in females and 1.4% in males). Prior to 2015, there was a parallel rise in rates for biopsies showing normal duodenal/jejunal mucosa. Conclusions In Sweden, the incidence of CD increased until 2002–2003 in females and until 2006 in males. Since then, the incidence of CD has declined despite increasing duodenal/jejunal biopsies, suggesting that increased awareness and investigation are unlikely to elevate the incidence of the disease in Sweden. Across a lifetime, 1 in 44 females and 1 in 72 males are expected to be diagnosed with CD in Sweden, indicating a relatively high societal burden of disease.