Feng, Felix Y.

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned co‐primary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical Trial Updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported. The initial STOMP and ORIOLE trial reports suggested that metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) in oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) was associated with improved treatment outcomes. Here, we present long-term outcomes of MDT in omCSPC by pooling STOMP and ORIOLE and assess the ability of a high-risk mutational signature to risk stratify outcomes after MDT. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. High-risk mutations were defined as pathogenic somatic mutations within ATM, BRCA1/ 2, Rb1, or TP53. The median follow-up for the whole group was 52.5 months. Median PFS was prolonged with MDT compared with observation (pooled hazard ratio [HR], 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.66; P value < .001), with the largest benefit of MDT in patients with a high-risk mutation (HR high-risk, 0.05; HR no high-risk, 0.42; P value for interaction: .12). Within the MDT cohort, the PFS was 13.4 months in those without a high-risk mutation, compared with 7.5 months in those with a high-risk mutation (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.25 to 1.11; P = .09). Long-term outcomes from the only two randomized trials in omCSPC suggest a sustained clinical benefit to MDT over observation. A high-risk mutational signature may help risk stratify treatment outcomes after MDT.

PURPOSE To compare the predictive ability of mapping algorithms derived using cross-sectional and longitudinal data. METHODS This methodological assessment used data from a randomized controlled noninferiority trial of patients with low-risk prostate cancer, conducted by NRG Oncology (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00331773 ), which examined the efficacy of conventional schedule versus hypofractionated radiation therapy (three-dimensional conformal external beam radiation therapy/IMRT). Health-related quality-of-life data were collected using the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC), and health utilities were obtained using EuroQOL-5D-3L (EQ-5D) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 60 months postintervention. Mapping algorithms were estimated using ordinary least squares regression models through five-fold cross-validation in baseline cross-sectional data and combined longitudinal data from all assessment periods; random effects specifications were also estimated in longitudinal data. Predictive performance was compared using root mean square error. Longitudinal predictive ability of models obtained using baseline data was examined using mean absolute differences in the reported and predicted utilities. RESULTS A total of 267 (and 199) patients in the estimation sample had complete EQ-5D and EPIC domain (and subdomain) data at baseline and at all subsequent assessments. Ordinary least squares models using combined data showed better predictive ability (lowest root mean square error) in the validation phase for algorithms with EPIC domain/subdomain data alone, whereas models using baseline data outperformed other specifications in the validation phase when patient covariates were also modeled. The mean absolute differences were lower for models using EPIC subdomain data compared with EPIC domain data and generally decreased as the time of assessment increased. CONCLUSION Overall, mapping algorithms obtained using baseline cross-sectional data showed the best predictive performance. Furthermore, these models demonstrated satisfactory longitudinal predictive ability.

PURPOSE Metastasis-free survival (MFS), but not event-free survival, is a validated surrogate end point for overall survival (OS) in men treated for localized prostate cancer. It remains unknown if this holds true in biochemically recurrent disease after radical prostatectomy. Leveraging NRG/RTOG 9601, we aimed to determine the performance of intermediate clinical end points (ICEs) as surrogate end points for OS in recurrent prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS NRG/RTOG 9601 randomly assigned 760 men with recurrence after prostatectomy to salvage radiation therapy with 2 years of placebo versus bicalutamide 150 mg daily. ICEs assessed were biochemical failure (BF) per NRG/RTOG 9601 (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 0.3-0.5 ng/mL or initiation of salvage hormone therapy; [BF1]) and NRG/RTOG 0534 (prostate-specific antigen nadir+2 ng/mL; [BF2]), distant metastasis (DM), and MFS (DM or death). Surrogacy was assessed by the Prentice criteria and a two-stage meta-analytic approach (condition one assessed at the patient level with Kendall's τ and condition two assessed by randomly dividing the entire trial cohort into 10 pseudo trial centers and calculating the average R2 between treatment hazard ratios for ICE and OS). RESULTS BF1, BF2, DM, and MFS satisfied the four Prentice criteria. However, with the two-condition meta-analytic approach, there was strong correlation between MFS and OS (τ = 0.86), moderate correlation between DM and OS (τ = 0.66), and weaker correlation between BF1 (τ = 0.25) or BF2 (τ = 0.40) and OS. Similarly, for condition two, the treatment effect of antiandrogen therapy on MFS and OS were correlated ( R2 = 0.67), but this was not true for BF1 ( R2 = 0.09), BF2 ( R2 = 0.12), or DM ( R2 = 0.18) and OS. CONCLUSION MFS is also a strong surrogate for OS in men receiving salvage radiation therapy for recurrence after prostatectomy. Caution should be used when inferring survival benefit from effects on BF in biochemically recurrent prostate cancer. Lack of comorbidity data did not allow us to assess whether BF in men with no/minimal comorbidity could serve as a surrogate for OS.

5011 Background: Emerging data suggest metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) improves outcomes in patients with oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC). Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET/CT) can detect occult metastatic disease and has been proposed as a biomarker for treatment response. Herein we identify and validate a PSMA-PET biomarker for clinical outcomes following MDT in omCSPC. Methods: This was an international multi-institutional retrospective study of two completely independent cohorts of men with omCSPC, defined as ≤3 lesions, treated with metastasis-directed stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) who underwent PSMA-PET/CT prior to and 3-6 months after treatment. Pre- and post-SABR PSMA-PET/CT standardized uptake value (SUV) was measured for all lesions and PSMA response defined discretely using a cutpoint of ≥ 30% decrease in SUVmax. PSMA-PET response was correlated with lesion local control (LLC), radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) defined using conventional and PET imaging, and metastasis-free survival (MFS) defined by conventional imaging alone. Results: A total of 131 patients with 261 treated metastases were included in the analysis, with median follow-up of 29 months (IQR 18.5-41.3). Following SABR, 78.4% of lesions experienced a partial or complete PSMA response. Multivariable analysis demonstrated SUV response significantly associated with improved LLC (HR = 9.97, 95%CI 3.92-25.4; p < 0.01). Patients with PSMA response in all lesions experienced significantly better rPFS (HR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.26-0.92; p = 0.03) compared to their counterparts and this maintained significance within both the discovery (p < 0.01) and validation (p = 0.01) cohorts. Within the discovery cohort, patients with PSMA response in all lesions also experienced significantly improved MFS (HR = 0.24, 95%CI 0.07-0.85; p = 0.03); analysis of the independent validation cohort is ongoing. Conclusions: Following SABR, PSMA-PET response is a robust and externally validated radiographic biomarker for rPFS and appears to be associated with MFS pending validation. This approach holds promise for guiding clinical management of omCSPC.

277 Background: The prognostic importance of local failure (LF) after definitive radiotherapy (RT) in patients with NCCN intermediate- (IRPCa) and high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa) remains unclear, particularly given the likelihood that occult distant metastases (DMs) at presentation may be the true driver of natural history. Here, we leverage individual patient data (IPD) from 18 randomized control trials (RCTs) to evaluate the prognostic impact of LF and the kinetics of DM after RT. Methods: IPD for 18 RCTs were obtained from the Meta-Analysis of Randomized trials in Cancer of the Prostate (MARCAP) Consortium, comprising a total of 12533 patients (6288 HRPCa & 6245 IRPCa). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards (PH) models were developed to evaluate the relationship between overall survival (OS), PCa-specific survival (PCSS), DM-free survival (DMFS) & LF as a time-dependent covariate, adjusted for clinicodemographic parameters. Markov PH models, defined via transitions between 4 states, were developed to evaluate the aforementioned relationship. Proportional hazards assumption was imposed and examined for both models. Time is from randomization. Results: Median follow-up was 9.1 years. There were 795 (13%) LF & 1288 (21%) DM events for patients with HRPCa; these numbers were 449 (7%) & 451 (7%) for IRPCa. For HRPCa & IRPCa, 81% and 81% of DMs developed from a clinically relapse-free state (cRFS), with a median time of 46 and 60 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). 39% & 13% of DM events occurred within 2 years after RT for HRPCa & IRPCa, respectively. At later time points, DM events were more likely to emerge after an LF event for both HRPCa (9% vs. 34% between 0-2 vs. 8-10 years post-RT, p = 0.001) and IRPCa (10% vs. 34% between 0-2 vs. 8-10 years post-RT, p = 0.008). LF was significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–1.30), PCSS (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.75-2.33) & DMFS (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.75–2.15) (p < 0.01 for all) in patients with HRPCa. LF was also significantly associated with DMFS (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.36–1.81) but not OS in patients with IRPCa. Patients who had not transitioned to the LF state had a significantly lower HR of transitioning to a PCa-specific death state than those who transitioned to the LF state (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21–0.50, p < 0.001). Conclusions: LF is an independent prognosticator of OS, PCSS & DMFS in HRPCa and of DMFS in IRPCa. The predominant mode of DM development is from the cRFS state, underscoring the importance of accurate upfront staging & systemic therapy. However, particularly at late time points, an increasing proportion of DM events originated after diagnosis of a LF, constituting a “second wave” of DM events. This suggests that optimizing local control is also important, though the majority of DM events appear prior to a clinically-detected LF.

265 Background: A recent study ( Fossati et al, 2018) found that higher lymph node count at radical prostatectomy was associated with improved outcomes in patients treated with salvage radiation for elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after surgery. We sought to validate these results in NRG/RTOG 9601, a randomized controlled trial of men with pT2/T3 disease who underwent either radiation (RT) alone or RT+antiandrogen (bicalutamide) therapy for PSA elevation following radical prostatectomy from 1998-2003. Methods: We reviewed available pathology reports for all patients in NRG/RTOG 9601 to determine the nodal count at radical prostatectomy. Clinical data was as of 11/5/2015, same as the primary endpoint for the trial. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of number of positive lymph nodes, treatment arm (RT alone or RT+bicalutamide), Gleason score, positive margins, and seminal vesicle invasion on the following endpoints: times to local and distant failure and overall and disease specific survival. Results: Out of the 760 patients originally eligible in the trial, 552 (73%, 276 in each arm) had complete data available. Median node count in the entire cohort was 6 (range 0-33, Q1-Q3 3-9). There were no significant differences between treatment arms in terms of patient demographic or clinical characteristics, including total lymph nodes removed in either arm (RT alone vs RT+bicalutamide median 5 vs 6, p = 0.11). There was no significant association between total lymph nodes and overall survival with both arms combined (HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.97-1.03, p = 0.87) or in the individual arms alone (RT+Casodex: HR = 1.01, 95% CI:0.97-1.05, p = 0.65; RT+Placebo: HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.94-1.03, p = 0.45). There was also no significant association between total lymph nodes and disease-specific survival with both arms combined (HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.95-1.04, p = 0.84) and in the arms alone (RT+Casodex: HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.95-1.05, p = 0.92; RT+Placebo: HR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.92-1.07, p = 0.86). In multivariable analysis performed on the two arms, Gleason score was the only feature associated with worse overall and disease-specific survival, seen only in the RT alone arm. Similar findings were seen when evaluating times to local and distant failure. Conclusions: Lymph node yield in NRG/RTOG 9601 did not show any association with adverse outcomes in the entire cohort, or in either treatment arm alone. The therapeutic benefit of an extensive lymph node dissection in this population remains uncertain. Clinical trial information: NCT00002874.

60 Background: Mapping algorithms informing economic evaluations are often derived using baseline data from clinical trials. It is unclear if these algorithms can predict health utilities accurately in post-intervention data. Thus, this study examines the longitudinal predictive ability of mapping algorithms derived from baseline trial data and explores the factors associated with prediction errors. Methods: This methodological study utilized data from an international, multicenter, randomized controlled trial of patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PC), conducted by NRG Oncology (NCT00331773). In addition to patient demographic and clinical data, this study utilized PRO data collected at baseline and 6, 12 and 24 months post-intervention. The Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) questionnaire measures health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and has four domains (urinary, sexual, hormonal, and bowel) and two subdomains per domain (function and bother); EuroQOL-5D-3L (EQ5D) captures health utilities. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models were used to map EPIC scores to EQ5D utilities in the baseline data through 5-fold cross-validation. Predictive performance was tested in the post-intervention data; predicted and reported utilities were compared using t-tests, and the absolute prediction error was modeled using fixed effects, as a function of baseline demographic and clinical covariates, as well as observed and predicted EQ5D utilities. Results: A total of 267 (199) patients had complete EQ5D and EPIC domain (or subdomain) data at baseline and all subsequent assessments. In the EPIC domain sample, mean ± standard deviation observed EQ5D utility was 0.90±0.13 at baseline, 0.92±0.11 at 6 months, 0.90±0.13 at 12 months and 0.89±0.14 at 24 months. Mean absolute differences (MDs) between reported and predicted were lower for models using EPIC subdomain data compared to EPIC domain data, and generally decreased as the time of assessment increased. The mapping functions over-predicted utilities for patients in perfect health while the prediction errors were increasingly negative for lower reported EQ5D scores. According to the fixed effects model for EPIC domain data, lower observed and predicted baseline EQ5D scores, and time of assessment were significant predictors of the absolute prediction error; for EPIC subdomain data, lower observed and predicted baseline EQ5D scores, hormonal bother and function, and bowel function significantly predicted the absolute prediction error. Conclusions: This study is the first to demonstrate the longitudinal validity of EPIC questionnaire, and builds upon existing research on longitudinal validity of mapping functions. The low MDs in prediction errors in post-intervention data indicate that the mapping functions are sensitive to treatment effect, thereby increasing confidence in their use in economic evaluations in PC.

428 Background: Trimodality therapy (TMT) with maximal TURBT followed by chemoradiation(CRT) is a standard of care for select patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). This trial evaluates the activity of atezolizumab (atezo) in MIBC in combination with TMT. This trial was designed with pre-specified safety analyses of the first 80 patients (40 in each arm). At the time of SWOG fall 2020 DSMC report deadline we had enrolled 84 patients but data on only 73 patients were available. The same data are being submitted to ASCO GU meeting. Methods: This trial is testing atezo every 3 weeks for 6 months given concurrently and adjuvantly with CRT vs. CRT alone in 475 patients with MIBC T2-T4aN0M0 disease. Patients are stratified based on PS; T2 vs T3 or T4; choice of chemotherapy; and radiation field (bladder only vs small pelvis). Patients undergo biopsy 3 months after finishing CRT to assess treatment response. Patients are followed for 5 years for recurrence or survival. This trial was not preceded by a phase I study but was designed with a safety run in of 80 patients. Study team agreed on the study design based on available data from other tumor types and initial experience from investigators running smaller similar trials. It was pre-specified that if we observe more than 25% patients having grade 3-5 colitis or cystitis in the atezo arm or any other toxicity which is deemed clinically significant and related to atezo, the trial investigators and DSMC would consider stopping further enrollment. Results: 36 patients were enrolled on the TMT alone arm and 37 patients on the TMT + atezo arm. No grade 3 or higher colitis was reported in the atezo arm. Only one patient had treatment related grade 3 radiation cystitis which was diagnosed after finishing atezo treatment. No steroids were given. Overall 23 grade 3 or higher toxicity events were reported in the atezo arm vs 11 in non- atezo arm. Most common toxicity was hematological which was considered non-immune related. None of the grade 3 or higher toxicities were considered to be immune related by the treating investigator. Conclusions: There is no evidence of increased immune related grade 3-5 AEs.DSMC has recommended to continue enrollment. Adverse Events with No Entries for Grades 3 to 5 Have Been Suppressed Clinical trial information: NCT03775265 . [Table: see text]