Zietman, Anthony L.

PURPOSE Metastasis-free survival (MFS), but not event-free survival, is a validated surrogate end point for overall survival (OS) in men treated for localized prostate cancer. It remains unknown if this holds true in biochemically recurrent disease after radical prostatectomy. Leveraging NRG/RTOG 9601, we aimed to determine the performance of intermediate clinical end points (ICEs) as surrogate end points for OS in recurrent prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS NRG/RTOG 9601 randomly assigned 760 men with recurrence after prostatectomy to salvage radiation therapy with 2 years of placebo versus bicalutamide 150 mg daily. ICEs assessed were biochemical failure (BF) per NRG/RTOG 9601 (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 0.3-0.5 ng/mL or initiation of salvage hormone therapy; [BF1]) and NRG/RTOG 0534 (prostate-specific antigen nadir+2 ng/mL; [BF2]), distant metastasis (DM), and MFS (DM or death). Surrogacy was assessed by the Prentice criteria and a two-stage meta-analytic approach (condition one assessed at the patient level with Kendall's τ and condition two assessed by randomly dividing the entire trial cohort into 10 pseudo trial centers and calculating the average R2 between treatment hazard ratios for ICE and OS). RESULTS BF1, BF2, DM, and MFS satisfied the four Prentice criteria. However, with the two-condition meta-analytic approach, there was strong correlation between MFS and OS (τ = 0.86), moderate correlation between DM and OS (τ = 0.66), and weaker correlation between BF1 (τ = 0.25) or BF2 (τ = 0.40) and OS. Similarly, for condition two, the treatment effect of antiandrogen therapy on MFS and OS were correlated ( R2 = 0.67), but this was not true for BF1 ( R2 = 0.09), BF2 ( R2 = 0.12), or DM ( R2 = 0.18) and OS. CONCLUSION MFS is also a strong surrogate for OS in men receiving salvage radiation therapy for recurrence after prostatectomy. Caution should be used when inferring survival benefit from effects on BF in biochemically recurrent prostate cancer. Lack of comorbidity data did not allow us to assess whether BF in men with no/minimal comorbidity could serve as a surrogate for OS.

24 Background: The use of radical prostatectomy (RP) as initial treatment of high-risk/locally-advanced prostate cancer is increasing but patients (pts) with adverse pathologic features such as positive surgical margins or T3 disease have up to 70% recurrence risk. These high-risk pts may be managed with adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) or early salvage radiotherapy (ESRT). The optimal timing of post-operative radiotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from 1566 consecutive pts with pT2N0M0/R1 or pT3N0M0/R0-1 disease who underwent post-prostatectomy ART or ESRT (1987-2013) at 10 academic centers were pooled. Post-irradiation freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), freedom from distant metastases (FFDM), prostate-cancer specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate competing-risks regression (MVA) analyses. Propensity score (PS) matching was used to account for covariates potentially associated with treatment allocation. All outcomes were measured from the date of surgery to address lead time bias. Results: After PS-matching, median follow-up after surgery was 66 vs. 73 months for the ART and ESRT groups, respectively, and baseline characteristics were well-matched. ART was associated with higher FFBF (12-yr: 69% vs. 43%; log-rank P < 0.0001), FFDM (12-yr: 95% vs. 85%; log-rank P = 0.03), PCSS (12-yr: 99% vs. 94%; log-rank P = 0.048), and OS (12-yr: 91% vs. 79%; log-rank P = 0.01). ART, lower Gleason score, lower T-stage, nodal irradiation, and postoperative androgen deprivation therapy were favorable prognostic features on MVA for BF. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the decreased risk of BF associated with ART remained significant unless more than 56% of ART pts were cured by surgery alone. This threshold is greater than the estimated 12-yr FFBF of 46% after RP alone as determined by a contemporary nomogram. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this represents the largest multi-institutional study to date comparing ART to ESRT. ART was associated with reduced biochemical recurrence, distant metastases, and death compared to ESRT for high-risk pts, pending prospective validation.

9 Background: Early salvage radiation therapy (SRT) following radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to reduce biochemical recurrence and distant metastases. We aim to identify factors predictive of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) from a consortium database from 10 academic institutions. Methods: 2,454 node-negative patients (pts) with detectable post-prostatectomy PSA ( ≥ 0.01 ng/mL) treated with SRT ± neoadjuvant/concurrent androgen deprivation therapy (N/C ADT) were included. Cumulative incidence and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate rates of PCSM and ACM, respectively. Univariate and multivariable analyses (MVA) were performed by competing risks regression and Cox proportional hazards methods for PCSM and ACM. Results: Median follow-up was 5 years from SRT completion and 8 years from date of RP; 24% had pathologic Gleason score (GS) of ≤ 6, 56% GS 7, and 19% GS ≥ 8; 56% extraprostatic extension (EPE), 18% seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), 58% positive surgical margins, and 16% received N/C ADT. Median age at RP and SRT were 62 years (IQR 56-66) and 64 years (59-69), respectively. Median SRT dose was 66 Gy (IQR 65-68) and median pre-SRT PSA was 0.5 ng/mL (IQR 0.3-1.1). MVA performed from SRT completion date demonstrated higher pre-SRT PSA (HR = 2.1), higher GS (GS 7 vs. ≤ 6: HR 2.0; GS ≥ 8 vs. 6: HR 3.3) , SVI (HR 2.5), year of SRT (2000-2004, 1995-1999, 1985-1994 vs. 2005-2012; HR 2.9, HR 2.5, HR 3.6, respectively) were significantly associated with higher PCSM. These same variables were all significantly associated with higher PCSM and ACM rates calculated from both SRT completion date and date of RP. Conclusions: Initiation of early SRT at lower post-operative PSA levels following RP is associated with reduced risk of PCSM and ACM, even when calculated from RP date to account for lead time bias. Other factors significantly associated with PCSM include higher GS, SVI, and earlier year of SRT. [Table: see text]

3 Background: Previous reports suggested that AAT when combined with salvage RT following RP in patients may improve prostate cancer control outcomes. Methods: Post-RP patients with pT3pN0 or with pT2pN0 and positive margins who had or developed elevated PSA levels from 0.2 to 4.0 ng/ml were randomized on a phase III, double-blind, trial of RT + placebo (64.8 Gy in 36 fractions of 1.8 Gy) vs. RT + AAT (24 months bicalutamide, 150 mg daily) during and after RT. The primary end-point was overall survival. Trial design required 725 patients and provided 80% power to detect a reduction in death rate by at least 28.5% and a 1-sided significance level of 0.046. Results: From 3/98 to 3/03, 761 eligible patients (median age 65) were randomized to RT + AAT (384) or RT + placebo (377). 248 patients (33%) were pT2pN0 and 513 (67%) were pT3pN0. 671 (88%) had a PSA nadir after RP of < 0.5 ng/ml. 649 (85%) had an entry PSA value of <1.6, 112 patients (15%) had an entry PSA of 1.6-4. Median follow up was 12.6 years. Actuarial overall survival at 10 years was 82% for RT plus AAT and 78% for RT + placebo and a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.98) with a 1-sided p value of 0.018 (2-sided p = 0.036). The 12-year incidence of PC central-reviewed deaths were 2.3% for RT + AAT and 7.5% for RT + placebo ( p< 0.001).The cumulative incidence of metastatic PC at 12 years was less in the RT + AAT arm, 14% (51 patients), vs. 23% (83 patients) in the RT + placebo arm (p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses of the relative benefits of the addition of AAT to RT are planned and will be presented. Late grade III and IV toxicity were similar in the AAT and placebo arms. The combined grade III and IV toxicities for RT + AAT and RT + placebo were: bladder 7.0% vs. 6.7%, bowel 2.7% vs. 1.6%. Gynecomastia differed significantly by treatment arm, 70% vs. 11%. Conclusions: 24 months of AAT using 150mg bicalutamide daily during and after salvage RT significantly improved long term overall survival and reduced the incidence of metastatic PC and PC death. Support: NCI grants U10CA21661, U10CA180868, U10CA180822, and U10CA37422 and AstraZeneca. Clinical trial information: NCT00002874.

Purpose We aimed to update a previously published, multi-institutional nomogram of outcomes for salvage radiotherapy (SRT) following radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer, including patients treated in the contemporary era. Methods Individual data from node-negative patients with a detectable post-RP prostate-specific antigen (PSA) treated with SRT with or without concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) were obtained from 10 academic institutions. Freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) and distant metastases (DM) rates were estimated, and predictive nomograms were generated. Results Overall, 2,460 patients with a median follow-up of 5 years were included; 599 patients (24%) had a Gleason score (GS) ≤ 6, 1,387 (56%) had a GS of 7, 244 (10%) had a GS of 8, and 230 (9%) had a GS of 9 to 10. There were 1,370 patients (56%) with extraprostatic extension (EPE), 452 (18%) with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), 1,434 (58%) with positive surgical margins, and 390 (16%) who received ADT (median, 6 months). The median pre-SRT PSA was 0.5 ng/mL (interquartile range, 0.3 to 1.1). The 5-yr FFBF rate was 56% overall, 71% for those with a pre-SRT PSA level of 0.01 to 0.2 ng/mL (n = 441), 63% for those with a PSA of 0.21 to 0.50 ng/mL (n = 822), 54% for those with a PSA of 0.51 to 1.0 ng/mL (n = 533), 43% for those with a PSA of 1.01 to 2.0 ng/mL (n = 341), and 37% for those with a PSA > 2.0 ng/mL (n = 323); P < .001. On multivariable analysis, pre-SRT PSA, GS, EPE, SVI, surgical margins, ADT use, and SRT dose were associated with FFBF. Pre-SRT PSA, GS, SVI, surgical margins, and ADT use were associated with DM, whereas EPE and SRT dose were not. The nomogram concordance indices were 0.68 (FFBF) and 0.74 (DM). Conclusion Early SRT at low PSA levels after RP is associated with improved FFBF and DM rates. Contemporary nomograms can estimate individual patient outcomes after SRT in the modern era.