Majumder, Shounak

ABSTRACT Background Family history of pancreatic cancer (PC), pathogenic germline variants (PGVs), and increased intrapancreatic fat (IPF) are individually associated with increased PC risk. Whether IPF is elevated in high‐risk individuals (HRIs) with PC family history or PGVs is unknown. Although MRI is the preferred modality for IPF measurement, region‐of‐interest–based approaches are prone to sampling bias because pancreatic fat is heterogeneously distributed. We aimed to compare IPF among HRIs and matched non‐HRI controls using an Artificial intelligence (AI)‐based tool for whole pancreatic IPF measurement applied to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods We developed and validated a deep‐learning pipeline for IPF measurement that incorporates automated pancreas segmentation on T1‐weighted MRI images registered to the corresponding iterative decomposition of water and fat with echo asymmetry and least squares estimation images to compute IPF using proton density fat fraction (PDFF). This pipeline was used to quantify IPF and assess IPF distribution patterns in 85 HRIs and 170 non‐HRIs matched 1:2 for age, sex, BMI, and diabetes status. A surface erosion approach was developed to minimize the impact of peripancreatic fat on IPF measurement. Linear models adjusting for matching variables were used to assess associations. Results Model‐expert agreement for whole‐pancreas PDFF was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98–0.99 mean absolute error 1.4%). Mean PDFF did not differ between HRIs and controls (25.8% [11.5] vs. 26.9% [11.4]; p = 0.32). PDFF increased with age ( p = 0.015), male sex ( p < 0.001), presence of diabetes ( p = 0.009), BMI ( p < 0.001). IPF distribution patterns did not differ by risk group. Conclusion An AI‐based approach provides accurate, scalable, and objective assessment of IPF quantity and distribution. IPF quantity and spatial distribution do not appear to differ based on germline or familial predisposition to PC.

Abstract Purpose: The Pancreatic Cancer Detection Consortium (PCDC) performed a blinded Early Detection Research Network–defined phase II biomarker bakeoff study of blood-based biomarker panels. The aims were to evaluate panel performance, to compare the panels’ performance with that of cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) alone, and to evaluate the performance of new combinations of the individual biomarkers. Experimental Design: Ten biomarkers representing eight biomarker panels and CA19-9 were evaluated using plasma, serum, and germline DNA from 140 stage I to IV pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases and 140 controls from three tertiary care institutions, with controls frequency matched to cases on age and sex. LASSO regression was employed to explore new biomarker combinations. The primary metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The study population was 51% female, with median age 67.3 (minimum: 45, maximum: 90) years. Biomarker panel AUCs ranged from 89.9 to 96.3; the AUC for serum CA19-9 alone was 91.7 [95% confidence interval (CI), 87.8–95.6]. Two panels had significantly higher AUCs than serum CA19-9 alone, the CA19-9/FUT2/3 panel (AUC = 96.3, P = 0.002), and the tissue factor pathway inhibitor/tenascin C (TFPI/TNC-FNIII-C) panel (AUC = 95, P = 0.01). Exploratory models to recombine biomarkers retained all but two biomarkers [optimism-corrected AUC = 96.4 (94–98.9)]. Conclusions: The CA19-9/FUT2/3 panel was the best performing panel in this biomarker bakeoff. Its evaluation in larger studies is warranted. Biomarker bakeoffs are an effective strategy for comparing the performance of promising biomarkers for pancreatic cancer early detection, and the PCDC is well poised to conduct such studies. Recommendations for performing such studies are provided.

Abstract Purpose: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is typically detected too late for useful therapeutic interventions; hence, we sought blood biomarkers to detect early-stage disease. Experimental Design: Using mass spectrometry and ELISA on plasma pools from the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) and the Mayo Clinic (Mayo), we identified aminopeptidase N (ANPEP) and polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (PIGR) as increased in early-stage (stage I/II) PDAC plasma compared with controls. We tested ANPEP and PIGR, along with prior data for thrombospondin 2 (THBS2) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), in retrospective phase II studies using separate cohorts of PDAC plasmas at different stages versus healthy or nonmalignant disease controls (DC) from Penn (n = 135) and Mayo (n = 537). Results: Comparing healthy controls with stage I/II PDAC, we obtained area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.68–0.86]/0.80 (95% CI, 0.74–0.85; ANPEP) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70–0.88)/0.86 (95% CI, 0.82–0.90; PIGR) for the Penn/Mayo phase II studies, respectively. In multivariable models, CA19-9/THBS2/ANPEP, CA19-9/THBS2/PIGR, and CA19-9/THBS2/ANPEP/PIGR elicited AUC of 0.94 to 0.96 for Penn and 0.97 for Mayo. Notably, the four-marker panel elicited AUC of 0.87 for the Mayo stage I/II versus DC and 0.91 for stages I to IV versus DC. At a specificity of 95%, a plasma biomarker panel composed of CA19-9 (≥35 U/mL), THBS2 (≥42 ng/mL), ANPEP (≥2,995 ng/mL), and PIGR (≥1,800 ng/mL) yielded a sensitivity of 91.9% for PDAC stages I to IV and 87.5% for PDAC stage I/II. Conclusions: Adding ANPEP and PIGR to a plasma biomarker panel of CA19-9 and THBS2 enhances the detection of early-stage PDAC when comparing cancer versus healthy or nonmalignant DC. Given the concordance of our data in two retrospective phase II studies, assessments in prediagnostic cases are warranted.

Abstract Purpose: Germline pathogenic variants (PV) in ATM increase the risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but the underlying tumor biology of PDAC associated with germline PV in ATM has not been adequately explored. Experimental Design: Whole-genome, whole-exome, and RNA sequencing were performed on PDAC tumors from 25 germline ATM PV carriers diagnosed at Mayo Clinic between 2007 and 2017. Somatic and copy-number alterations, mutational signatures, transcriptomic subtypes, and the immune landscape were evaluated. Results: High-quality whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing were obtained from 21 and 15 tumors, respectively. Biallelic inactivation of ATM was observed in 87%, KRAS PV in 90%, CDKN2A homozygous loss in 60%, and TP53 alterations in &lt;10% of these tumors. A predominant clock-like mutational signature was present in all samples. Whole-transcriptome analysis identified that the aberrantly differentiated endocrine exocrine subtype accounted for 18% of PDAC and was consistently associated with &gt;5-year overall survival. In addition, a 28-gene expression–based signature associated with overall survival was identified and further validated in The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort. Immune landscape analysis through CODEX identified enriched CD4 T-helper cell/tumor interactions and reduced B7H3-high cell/tumor interactions in ATM PV carriers compared with noncarriers. Conclusions: The observed absence of TP53 PV and enrichment for CDKN2A alterations in ATM tumors, along with differences in the mutational signatures, transcriptomic subtypes and immune landscape, improve our understanding of the mechanistic pathways involved in PDAC development in germline ATM PV carriers and help identify potential targeted therapeutic strategies.

Abstract Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm (panNEN) is a rare malignancy and the second most common type of pancreatic cancer after pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but its etiology is poorly understood. We investigated whether the risk factors of panNEN are concordant with those known for PDAC. We performed the largest case-control study to date on panNENs, comprising 927 sporadic nonfunctional panNEN cases and 1807 frequency-matched controls, using data from the Mayo Clinic Biospecimen Resource for Pancreas Research. We assessed associations for obesity, first-degree family history of pancreatic cancer, cigarette smoking, overall type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM), new-onset T2DM (&lt;1 year before panNEN diagnosis), longstanding T2DM (≥5 years), alcohol intake and aspirin use. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Our results show that overall T2DM (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.37–2.14) and new-onset T2DM (OR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.92–3.69) are associated with higher odds of panNEN, but not longstanding T2DM (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.94–1.75). A non-significant elevated odds of panNEN was observed among participants with a positive family history of pancreatic cancer (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 0.96–2.14). Alcohol use was inversely related to panNEN (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42–0.66, ever-vs-never). No association was observed for smoking, obesity or aspirin use. These findings indicate that overall T2DM and new-onset T2DM are associated with higher odds of panNEN. Unlike PDAC, alcohol use was inversely related to panNEN, and we found no associations for cigarette smoking, obesity or aspirin use. These results indicate differences in the risk factor profiles of panNEN and PDAC.

ABSTRACTBackgroundIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the most commonly identified pancreatic cystic neoplasms. Incidentally detected IPMNs are common among liver transplant recipients. The risk of IPMN progression to pancreatic cancer in transplant recipients and the impact of immunosuppression on the risk of malignant transformation of IPMN are unclear.MethodsIn this retrospective study of consecutive liver transplant recipients across Mayo Clinic over a 13‐year period, patients were assessed for possible IPMN by automated chart review. Pancreatic cystic lesions were characterized as suspected IPMNs based on imaging criteria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association between IPMN progression (the development of cancer or worrisome features) and clinical and immunosuppression regimen characteristics.ResultsOf 146 patients with suspected IPMNs, progression occurred in 7 patients (2 cases of IPMN‐associated cancer and 5 cases of worrisome features) over an average follow‐up of 66.6 months. Immunosuppression type, medication number, and tacrolimus trough levels were not associated with IPMN progression (p > 0.05). Combined kidney and liver transplantation (p = 0.005) and pretransplant cholangiocarcinoma (p = 0.012) were associated with IPMN progression.ConclusionIPMN progression is rare after liver transplantation even over an extended follow‐up period. The findings were notable for the absence of an association between IPMN progression and immunosuppression regimen. Larger studies are needed given the low incidence.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate risk prediction can facilitate screening and early detection of pancreatic cancer (PC). We conducted a systematic review to critically evaluate effectiveness of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques applied to electronic health records (EHR) for PC risk prediction. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid EMBASE, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for articles that utilized ML/AI techniques to predict PC, published between January 1, 2012, and February 1, 2024. Study selection and data extraction were conducted by 2 independent reviewers. Critical appraisal and data extraction were performed using the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. Risk of bias and applicability were examined using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. RESULTS: Thirty studies including 169,149 PC cases were identified. Logistic regression was the most frequent modeling method. Twenty studies utilized a curated set of known PC risk predictors or those identified by clinical experts. ML model discrimination performance (C-index) ranged from 0.57 to 1.0. Missing data were underreported, and most studies did not implement explainable-AI techniques or report exclusion time intervals. DISCUSSION: AI/ML models for PC risk prediction using known risk factors perform reasonably well and may have near-term applications in identifying cohorts for targeted PC screening if validated in real-world data sets. The combined use of structured and unstructured EHR data using emerging AI models while incorporating explainable-AI techniques has the potential to identify novel PC risk factors, and this approach merits further study.

ImportanceIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic cysts that can give rise to pancreatic cancer (PC). Limited population data exist on their prevalence, natural history, or risk of malignant transformation (IPMN-PC).ObjectiveTo fill knowledge gaps in epidemiology of IPMNs and associated PC risk by estimating population prevalence of IPMNs, associated PC risk, and proportion of IPMN-PC.Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), patients aged 50 years and older with abdominal computed tomography (CT) scans between 2000 and 2015 were randomly selected (CT cohort). All patients from the REP with PC between 2000 and 2019 were also selected (PC cohort). Data were analyzed from November 2021 through August 2023.Main outcomes and MeasuresCIs for PC incidence estimates were calculated using exact methods with the Poisson distribution. Cox models were used to estimate age, sex, and stage–adjusted hazard ratios for time-to-event end points.ResultsThe CT cohort included 2114 patients (1140 females [53.9%]; mean [SD] age, 68.6 [12.1] years). IPMNs were identified in 231 patients (10.9%; 95% CI, 9.7%-12.3%), most of which were branch duct (210 branch-duct [90.9%], 16 main-duct [6.9%], and 5 mixed [2.2%] IPMNs). There were 5 Fukuoka high-risk (F-HR) IPMNs (2.2%), 39 worrisome (F-W) IPMNs (16.9%), and 187 negative (F-N) IPMNs (81.0%). After a median (IQR) follow-up of 12.0 (8.1-15.3) years, 4 patients developed PC (2 patients in F-HR and 2 patients in F-N groups). The PC incidence rate per 100 person years for F-HR IPMNs was 34.06 incidents (95% CI, 4.12-123.02 incidents) and not significantly different for patients with F-N IPMNs compared with patients without IPMNs (0.16 patients; 95% CI, 0.02-0.57 patients vs 0.11 patients; 95% CI, 0.06-0.17 patients; P = .62). The PC cohort included 320 patients (155 females [48.4%]; mean [SD] age, 72.0 [12.3] years), and 9.8% (95% CI, 7.0%-13.7%) had IPMN-PC. Compared with 284 patients with non-IPMN PC, 31 patients with IPMN-PC were older (mean [SD] age, 76.9 [9.2] vs 71.3 [12.5] years; P = .02) and more likely to undergo surgical resection (14 patients [45.2%] vs 60 patients [21.1%]; P = .003) and more-frequently had nonmetastatic PC at diagnosis (20 patients [64.5%] vs 130 patients [46.8%]; P = .047). Patients with IPMN-PC had better survival (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40-0.94; P = .03) than patients with non-IPMN PC.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, CTs identified IPMNs in approximately 10% of patients aged 50 years or older. PC risk in patients with F-N IPMNs was low and not different compared with patients without IPMNs; approximately 10% of patients with PC had IPMN-PC, and they had better survival compared with patients with non-IPMN PC.