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Drummond, Michael

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6968-4610

Mayo Clinic

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Citations 10

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as a Biomarker in Clinically Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: SPIROMICS Cohort
HOESTEREY, DANIEL , Markovic, Daniela , Buhr, Russell G. , Tashkin, Donald P., Barr, R. Graham, Belperio, John A. , Bowler, Russell P. , Bleecker, Eugene R., Couper, David J., Cooper, Christopher B. , Han, MeiLan K., Hansel, Nadia N. , Hastie, Annette T. , Hoffman, Eric A. , Kanner, Richard E. , O’Neal, Wanda K. , Ortega, Victor E. , Paine, Robert, Shrivastav, Abhishek K., Wells, J. Michael , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Hoesterey, Daniel T , Buhr, Russell G , Bowler, Russell P , Doerschuk, Claire M , Drummond, M Bradley , Hastie, Annette T , Hoffman, Eric A , Huang, Yvonne J , Krishnan, Jerry A , Wells, J Michael , Curtis, Jeffrey L , O'Neal, Wanda K , Dang, Hong , Barr, R. Graham, Couper, David J., Criner, Gerard J. , Doerschuk, Claire M. , Dransfield, Mark T. , Drummond, Michael , Fawzy, Ashraf , Freeman, Christine M. , Han, MeiLan King , Kaner, Robert J. , Kim, Victor, Martínez, Fernando J. , Shrivastav, Abhishek K., Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Barjaktarević, Igor

Annals of the American Thoracic Society | September 8, 2025 | Volume: 22 | Issue: 12 | Pages: 1881-1890

10.1513/annalsats.202412-1265oc Get It

Abstract Rationale Inflammation is central to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathogenesis but incompletely represented in COPD prognostic models. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a readily available inflammatory biomarker. Objectives To explore the associations of NLR with smoking status, clinical features of COPD, and future adverse outcomes. Methods We analyzed NLR calculated from the complete blood count of participants who currently or formerly smoked (n = 2,624) and tobacco-naive control subjects (n = 187) in the SPIROMICS multicenter observational cohort study. We assessed the stability of NLR at 6 weeks and 1 year, the association with select blood biomarkers, and the impact of smoking on NLR and cell counts. We stratified participants by NLR quartiles to compare cross-sectional clinical features at enrollment, prospectively observed exacerbations at 1 year, and mortality during longitudinal follow up. Results Higher NLR quartiles were broadly associated with more severe clinical features of COPD. NLR values were repeatable at 6 weeks (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.74) and 1 year (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.62). The impact of smoking on NLR varied with the severity of airflow limitation, mediated by an interaction between smoking, forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted, and neutrophil counts but not lymphocyte counts. The highest NLR quartile (>3.11) was associated with an increased risk of exacerbation over 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.18, 1.92) and increased risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.20, 1.66) compared with quartiles 1–3. Conclusions Elevated NLR in stable COPD is a widely available biomarker associated with increased risk for exacerbation and death. The impact of cigarette smoking on NLR varies with disease severity.
Longitudinal Outcomes in Pi*MZ Alpha-1 Antitrypsin–Deficient Individuals with Tobacco Smoking History from the SPIROMICS Cohort
Barjaktarević, Igor , Hixson, Roxana, Zhuang, Zian , Buhr, Russell G. , Tejwani, Vickram , Barr, R. Graham, Bateman, Lori A. , Bhatt, Surya P. , Bleecker, Eugene R. , Cooper, Christopher B., Fortis, Spyridon , Hansel, Nadia N. , Hoffman, Eric A. , Martinez, Fernando J., Meyers, Deborah A., Paine, Robert, Pirozzi, C.S. , Sandhaus, Robert A. , Tashkin, Donald P., Wells, J. Michael , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Ortega, Victor E. , Drummond, M Bradley , Fortis, Spyridon , Hoffman, Eric A , Wells, J Michael , Barjaktarevic, Igor , Buhr, Russell G , Bhatt, Surya P , Barr, R. Graham, Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Drummond, Michael , Ghosh, Auyon , Han, MeiLan King , Ohar, Jill , Meyers, Deborah A. , Strange, Charlie

Annals of the American Thoracic Society | March 11, 2025 | Volume: 22 | Issue: 7 | Pages: 998-1008

10.1513/annalsats.202411-1209oc Get It

Abstract Rationale Reliable data about the natural history of lung function decline in alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT)-deficient Pi*MZ heterozygotes is largely missing. Objectives We hypothesized that, in adults with a tobacco smoking history, lung function deteriorates faster in Pi*MZ compared with the Pi*MM genotype. Methods We identified 1,856 Pi*MM and 79 Pi*MZ participants with ⩾20 pack-years tobacco smoking history from the SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study) cohort by DNA sequencing and followed them over a median of 4.8 years, comparing radiographic and clinical characteristics between the two groups over time using regression models. Results Adjusted for age, sex, race, smoking pack-year history, and smoking status, Pi*MZ participants had a lower baseline percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (65.4% vs. 75.1%; difference 95% confidence interval [CI], −15.4% to −3.9%), more radiographic emphysema (<−950 Hounsfield units%, 12.9% vs. 7.8%; difference 95% CI, 2.8% to 7.5%), and nonsignificantly lower lung density. In the longitudinal analysis, the FEV1 annual rate of decline was similar in both groups over the course of the study (−34.5 ml/yr vs. −34.6 ml/yr for Pi*MZ and Pi*MM; difference 95% CI, −16.9 to 17.1 ml/yr). There were no significant differences between Pi*MZ and Pi*MM individuals in the annualized change in lung density, emphysema, patient-reported outcomes, exacerbations, or survival. The proportion with faster FEV1 decline (annual loss ⩾40 ml) was similar in Pi*MZ and Pi*MM groups. In both groups, faster FEV1 decline was associated with more air trapping and small airway disease at baseline. In Pi*MZ only, faster decline was associated with higher blood eosinophil counts (310 vs. 220 cells/μl; difference 95% CI, 30 to 140 cells/μl). In the subgroup analysis limited to a small number of currently smoking participants, no significant differences in longitudinal outcomes were found. Conclusions Despite a lower FEV1 and more emphysema at enrollment, the longitudinal analysis did not demonstrate significantly greater lung function decline or lung density loss in Pi*MZ compared with Pi*MM participants with tobacco smoking history. Limited sample size and duration of longitudinal follow-up constrain generalizability of our findings, thus prohibiting the conclusion that longitudinal trajectories did not differ between these groups. However, our results may suggest that earlier life events could be responsible for more extensive lung disease at enrollment in Pi*MZ compared with Pi*MM tobacco-exposed individuals.
Phenotypes and Trajectories of Tobacco-Exposed Persons with Preserved Spirometry: Insights from Lung Volumes
Arjomandi, Mehrdad , Zeng, Siyang , Bleecker, Eugene R., Bowler, Russell P. , Criner, Gerard J. , Comellas, Alejandro P. , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Fortis, Spyridon , Hansel, Nadia N. , Hoffman, Eric A. , Kaner, Robert J., Kanner, Richard E. , Ortega, Victor E. , Peters, Stephen P. , Rennard, Stephen I. , Cooper, Christopher B., Tashkin, Donald P., Paine, Robert , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Bowler, Russell P , Comellas, Alejandro P , Curtis, Jeffrey L , Drummond, M Bradley , Fortis, Spyridon , Hoffman, Eric A , Krishnan, Jerry A , Criner, Gerard , Barjaktarević, Igor , Couper, David , Dransfield, Mark T. , Drummond, Michael , Han, MeiLan King , Labaki, Wassim W.

Annals of the American Thoracic Society | November 25, 2024 | Volume: 22 | Issue: 4 | Pages: 494-505

10.1513/annalsats.202405-527oc Get It

Abstract Rationale Among tobacco-exposed persons with preserved spirometry (TEPSs), we previously demonstrated that different lung volume indices—specifically, elevated total lung capacity (TLC) versus elevated ratio of functional residual capacity to TLC (FRC/TLC)—identify different lung disease characteristics in the COPDGene cohort. Objective We sought to determine differential disease characteristics and trajectories associated with lung volume indices among TEPSs in the SPIROMICS cohort. Methods We categorized TEPSs (n = 814) by tertiles (low, intermediate, and high) of TLC or residual volume–to-TLC ratio (RV/TLC) derived from baseline computed tomography images and then examined clinical and spirometric disease trajectories in mutually exclusive categories of participants with high TLC without high RV/TLC ([TLC]high) versus high RV/TLC without high TLC ([RV/TLC]high). We examined differences in computed tomography–measured emphysema (Hounsfield units [HU] ⩽−950; parametric response mapping [PRM] of emphysema), air trapping (HU⩽−856; PRM of functional small airway disease; a disease probability measure for non-emphysematous gas trapping), airway geometry (the mean square root of wall area of a hypothetical airway with 10 mm internal perimeter), respiratory symptoms (on the modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale; COPD Assessment Test [CAT]; St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ]; and Short Form-12 [SF12]), and outcomes (annualized exacerbation rate) between the two categories at baseline and over follow-up time up to 8.5 years, using regression modeling adjusted for age, sex, height, weight, and smoking status (current vs. former smoker) and burden (pack-years). Results In TEPSs, the pattern of spirometric disease progression differed between participants with [TLC]high and those with [RV/TLC]high: There was increased forced vital capacity with stable forced expiratory volume in 1 second in participants with [TLC]high, versus unchanged forced vital capacity but nominally decreased forced expiratory volume in 1 second in those with [RV/TLC]high. Compared with participants with [TLC]high, TEPSs with [RV/TLC]high had less emphysema (by HU ⩽−950) but more airway disease (by HU ⩽−856; PRM of functional small airway disease; disease probability measure for gas trapping, and mean square root of wall area of a hypothetical airway with 10 mm internal perimeter), more respiratory symptoms (on the modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, CAT, SGRQ, and SF12), and more severe exacerbations at baseline. Over an average follow-up of 4.1 ± 2.4 years (range = 0.5–8.5 yr), TEPSs with [RV/TLC]high also had a higher likelihood of developing more severe spirometric disease (preserved ratio impaired spirometry or Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Classification 2) and worsening of their respiratory symptoms (on the CAT and SGRQ). Although the incidence rates of respiratory exacerbations, hospitalizations, and mortality were not significantly different between the two categories over the follow-up period, TEPSs with [RV/TLC]high were more likely to have been prescribed a respiratory inhaler at their last follow-up visit. Conclusions In these TEPSs from the SPIROMICS cohort, lung volume stratification by TLC versus RV/TLC identifies two pre-COPD phenotypes with distinct respiratory symptoms, radiographic features, and clinical trajectories. The characteristics of these pre-COPD phenotypes match those previously described in the COPDGene cohort using TLC versus FRC/TLC stratification.
Effect of Smoking Cessation on COPD Exacerbations, Spirometry and Respiratory Symptoms in Spiromics
Glassman, L., Wilgus, M.L., Zhuang, Zhaohan, Markovic, Daniela , Comellas, Alejandro P. , Cooper, C.B., Han, M.K., Hansel, Nadia N. , Kim, V., Ortega, Victor E. , Paine, Robert , Peters, S.P., Woodruff, P., Tashkin, Donald P., Comellas, Alejandro P , Glassman, L., Buhr, Russell G. , Barr, R. Graham , Bowler, Russell P. , Cooper, C.B. , Couper, David , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Dransfield, Mark T. , Drummond, Michael , Han, M.K. , Kaner, Robert J. , Krishnan, Jerry A , Martínez, Fernando J. , Barjaktarević, Igor

D13. DETERMINANTS OF DISEASE PROGRESSION AND DECLINE IN COPD | April 30, 2024 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: A6908-A6908

10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_meetingabstracts.a6908 Get It

Clinical Characteristics and Longitudinal Outcomes in Heterogeneous Emphysema in SPIROMICS
Hong, Angela , Newell, John D. , Valipour, Arschang , Ortega, Victor E. , Cooper, C.B., Hansel, Nadia N. , Paine, Robert , Woodruff, P., Hong, A., Eddy, Rachel L. , Goldin, Jonathan , Hoffman, Eric A. , Abtin, Fereidoun G. , Criner, Gerard J. , Reinhardt, Joseph M. , Barr, R. Graham , Ohar, Jill , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Cooper, C.B. , Drummond, Michael , Han, MeiLan King , Labaki, Wassim W. , Martínez, Fernando J. , Wells, J. Michael , Tashkin, Donald P. , Barjaktarević, Igor

D13. DETERMINANTS OF DISEASE PROGRESSION AND DECLINE IN COPD | April 30, 2024 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: A6905-A6905

10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_meetingabstracts.a6905 Get It

Computer Assisted Quantitative Image Analysis as a Pathway to Identification of Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema (CPFE): Analysis of the SPIROMICS Cohort
HOESTEREY, DANIEL , Kim, G.H.J., Lee, Jungmin , Pourzand, Lila , Oh, Andrea , Bateman, Lori A. , Cooper, C.B., Hansel, Nadia N. , Kim, V., Ortega, Victor E. , Paine, Robert , Peters, Stephen P. , Wang, J.M., Woodruff, Prescott G. , Abtin, F., Tashkin, Donald P. , Hoffman, Eric A. , Barr, R. Graham , Bowler, Russell P. , Cooper, C.B. , Couper, David , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Dransfield, Mark T. , Drummond, Michael , Han, MeiLan King , Kaner, Robert J. , Krishnan, Jerry A , Martínez, Fernando J. , Reinhardt, Joseph M. , Wells, J. Michael , Goldin, Jonathan , Abtin, Fereidoun G. , Barjaktarević, Igor

C24. CLINICAL, BIOLOGIC, AND RADIOLOGIC MARKERS OF KEY OUTCOMES AND TREATMENT RESPONSE IN COPD | April 30, 2024 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: A5118-A5118

10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2024.209.1_meetingabstracts.a5118 Get It

The Effect of Chronic Altitude Exposure on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Outcomes in the SPIROMICS Cohort: An Observational Cohort Study
Suri, Rajat , Markovic, Daniela , Woo, Han, Arjomandi, Mehrdad , Bowler, Russell P. , Criner, Gerard J. , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Dransfield, Mark T. , Fortis, Spyridon , Hoffman, Eric A. , Kaufman, Joel D. , Ortega, Victor E. , Paine, Robert, Soler, Xavier , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Hansel, Nadia N. , Cooper, Christopher B. , Bowler, Russell P , Criner, Gerard , Curtis, Jeffrey L , Dransfield, Mark T , Drummond, M Bradley , Fortis, Spyridon , Han, MeiLan King , Hoffman, Eric A , Kaner, Robert J. , Kaufman, Joel D , Krishnan, Jerry A , Martinez, Fernando , Ohar, Jill , Woodruff, Prescott G , Hansel, Nadia N , Cooper, Christopher B , Tashkin, Donald , Buhr, Russell G , Barjaktarevic, Igor , Barr, R. Graham , Drummond, Michael , Martínez, Fernando J. , Tashkin, Donald P. , Buhr, Russell G. , Barjaktarević, Igor

American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | March 20, 2024 | Volume: 210 | Issue: 10 | Pages: 1210-1218

10.1164/rccm.202310-1965oc Get It

Abstract Rationale Individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have airflow obstruction and maldistribution of ventilation. For those living at high altitude, any gas exchange abnormality is compounded by reduced partial pressures of inspired oxygen. Objectives Does residence at higher altitude exposure affect COPD outcomes, including lung function, imaging characteristics, symptoms, health status, functional exercise capacity, exacerbations, and mortality? Methods From the SPIROMICS (Subpopulation and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) cohort, we identified individuals with COPD living below 1,000 ft (305 m) elevation (n = 1,367) versus above 4,000 ft (1,219 m) elevation (n = 288). Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate associations of exposure to high altitude with COPD-related outcomes. Measurements and Main Results Living at higher altitude was associated with reduced functional exercise capacity as defined by 6-minute-walk distance (−32.3 m [95% confidence interval, −49.8 to −14.8 m]). There were no differences in patient-reported outcomes as defined by symptoms (COPD Assessment Test and modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale), or health status (St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire). Higher altitude was not associated with a different rate of FEV1 decline. Higher altitude was associated with lower odds of severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 0.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.90]). There were no differences in small airway disease, air trapping, or emphysema. In longitudinal analyses, higher altitude was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.25 [95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 1.55]); however, this association was no longer significant when accounting for air pollution. Conclusions Long-term altitude exposure is associated with reduced functional exercise capacity in individuals with COPD, but this did not translate into differences in symptoms or health status. In addition, long-term high-altitude exposure did not affect progression of disease as defined by longitudinal changes in spirometry. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01969344).
Longitudinal Follow-Up of Participants With Tobacco Exposure and Preserved Spirometry
McKleroy, William , Shing, Tracie L. , Anderson, Wayne H. , Arjomandi, Mehrdad , Awan, Hira Anees, Bleecker, Eugene R. , Boscardin, John, Criner, Gerard J. , Comellas, Alejandro P. , Dolezal, Brett A. , Hansel, Nadia N. , Helton, K., Hoffman, Eric A. , Kanner, Richard E. , Lazarus, Stephen C. , Ortega, Victor E. , Paine, Robert , Peters, Stephen P. , Rennard, Stephen I. , Smith, Benjamin M. , Cooper, Christopher B. , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Criner, Gerard , Hoffman, Eric A , Comellas, Alejandro P , Boscardin, W. John , Barjaktarević, Igor , Barr, R. Graham , Bowler, Russell P. , Buhr, Russell G. , Curtis, Jeffrey L. , Dransfield, Mark T. , Doerschuk, Claire M. , Drummond, Michael , Han, MeiLan King , Helton, Kinsey, Kaner, Robert J. , Krishnan, Jerry A , Martínez, Fernando J. , Ohar, Jill , Reinhardt, Joseph M. , Tashkin, Donald P. , Couper, David

JAMA | August 1, 2023 | Volume: 330 | Issue: 5 | Pages: 442

10.1001/jama.2023.11676 Get It

Importance People who smoked cigarettes may experience respiratory symptoms without spirometric airflow obstruction. These individuals are typically excluded from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials and lack evidence-based therapies. Objective To define the natural history of persons with tobacco exposure and preserved spirometry (TEPS) and symptoms (symptomatic TEPS). Design, Setting, and Participants SPIROMICS II was an extension of SPIROMICS I, a multicenter study of persons aged 40 to 80 years who smoked cigarettes (>20 pack-years) with or without COPD and controls without tobacco exposure or airflow obstruction. Participants were enrolled in SPIROMICS I and II from November 10, 2010, through July 31, 2015, and followed up through July 31, 2021. Exposures Participants in SPIROMICS I underwent spirometry, 6-minute walk distance testing, assessment of respiratory symptoms, and computed tomography of the chest at yearly visits for 3 to 4 years. Participants in SPIROMICS II had 1 additional in-person visit 5 to 7 years after enrollment in SPIROMICS I. Respiratory symptoms were assessed with the COPD Assessment Test (range, 0 to 40; higher scores indicate more severe symptoms). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry (postbronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV 1 ] to forced vital capacity >0.70) and COPD Assessment Test scores of 10 or greater. Participants with asymptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry and COPD Assessment Test scores of less than 10. Patient-reported respiratory symptoms and exacerbations were assessed every 4 months via phone calls. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was assessment for accelerated decline in lung function (FEV 1 ) in participants with symptomatic TEPS vs asymptomatic TEPS. Secondary outcomes included development of COPD defined by spirometry, respiratory symptoms, rates of respiratory exacerbations, and progression of computed tomographic–defined airway wall thickening or emphysema. Results Of 1397 study participants, 226 had symptomatic TEPS (mean age, 60.1 [SD, 9.8] years; 134 were women [59%]) and 269 had asymptomatic TEPS (mean age, 63.1 [SD, 9.1] years; 134 were women [50%]). At a median follow-up of 5.76 years, the decline in FEV 1 was −31.3 mL/y for participants with symptomatic TEPS vs −38.8 mL/y for those with asymptomatic TEPS (between-group difference, −7.5 mL/y [95% CI, −16.6 to 1.6 mL/y]). The cumulative incidence of COPD was 33.0% among participants with symptomatic TEPS vs 31.6% among those with asymptomatic TEPS (hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.76 to 1.46]). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had significantly more respiratory exacerbations than those with asymptomatic TEPS (0.23 vs 0.08 exacerbations per person-year, respectively; rate ratio, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.71 to 3.31], P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance Participants with symptomatic TEPS did not have accelerated rates of decline in FEV 1 or increased incidence of COPD vs those with asymptomatic TEPS, but participants with symptomatic TEPS did experience significantly more respiratory exacerbations over a median follow-up of 5.8 years.
Longitudinal Analysis of Clinical Outcomes in PiMZ Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Smokers From the Spiromics Cohort
HIXSON, ROXANA, Zhuang, Zhaohan, Markovic, D., Barr, R.G., Cooper, C.B. , Curtis, J.L., Hawkins, G.A., Hoffman, E.A., Kim, V., Martinez, F.J., Paine, Robert , Pirozzi, C.S. , Wells, James M. , Woodruff, Prescott G. , Tashkin, Donald P., Bleecker, Eugene R., Meyers, Deborah A. , Ortega, Victor E. , Barjaktarević, Igor , Buhr, Russell G. , Curtis, J.L., Drummond, Michael , Fortis, Spyridon , Hawkins, G.A., Han, MeiLan King , Hoffman, E.A., Manichaikul, Ani , Pottinger, Tess D. , Wells, J.M.

B22. NEW TREATMENTS AND NOVEL TARGETS FOR COPD AND ALPHA-1 | May 1, 2023 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: A2840-A2840

10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2023.207.1_meetingabstracts.a2840 Get It

Spirometric Predictors of Lung Function Decline and Mortality in Early Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Drummond, Michael , Hansel, Nadia N. , Connett, John E. , Scanlon, Paul D., Wise, Robert A. , Tashkin, Donald P. , Wise, Robert , Drummond, M Bradley

American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | May 5, 2012 | Volume: 185 | Issue: 12 | Pages: 1301-1306

10.1164/rccm.201202-0223oc Get It

Abstract Rationale The course of lung function decline for smokers with early airflow obstruction remains undefined. It is also unclear which early spirometric characteristics identify individuals at risk for rapid decline and increased mortality. Objectives To determine the association between spirometric measures and 5-year decline in FEV1 and 12-year mortality. Methods We analyzed longitudinal data from the Lung Health Study, a clinical trial of intensive smoking cessation intervention with or without bronchodilator therapy in 5,887 smokers with mild to moderate airflow obstruction. Participants were stratified into bins of baseline FEV1 to FVC ratio, using bins of 5%, and separately into bins of Z-score (difference between actual and predicted FEV1/FVC, normalized to SD of predicted FEV1/FVC). Associations between spirometric measures and FEV1 decline and mortality were determined after adjusting for baseline characteristics and time-varying smoking status. Measurements and Main Results The cohort was approximately two-thirds male, predominantly of white race (96%), and with mean age of 49 ± 7 years. In general, individuals with lower lung function by any metric had more rapid adjusted FEV1 decline. A threshold for differential decline was present at FEV1/FVC less than 0.65 (P < 0.001) and Z-score less than −2 (2.3 percentile) (P < 0.001). At year 12, 575 (7.2%) of the cohort had died. Lower thresholds of each spirometric metric were associated with increasing adjusted hazard of death. Conclusions Smokers at risk or with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have accelerated lung function decline. Individuals with lower baseline FEV1/FVC have more rapid decline and worse mortality.