Markovic, Daniela

Abstract Rationale Inflammation is central to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathogenesis but incompletely represented in COPD prognostic models. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a readily available inflammatory biomarker. Objectives To explore the associations of NLR with smoking status, clinical features of COPD, and future adverse outcomes. Methods We analyzed NLR calculated from the complete blood count of participants who currently or formerly smoked (n = 2,624) and tobacco-naive control subjects (n = 187) in the SPIROMICS multicenter observational cohort study. We assessed the stability of NLR at 6 weeks and 1 year, the association with select blood biomarkers, and the impact of smoking on NLR and cell counts. We stratified participants by NLR quartiles to compare cross-sectional clinical features at enrollment, prospectively observed exacerbations at 1 year, and mortality during longitudinal follow up. Results Higher NLR quartiles were broadly associated with more severe clinical features of COPD. NLR values were repeatable at 6 weeks (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.74) and 1 year (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.62). The impact of smoking on NLR varied with the severity of airflow limitation, mediated by an interaction between smoking, forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted, and neutrophil counts but not lymphocyte counts. The highest NLR quartile (>3.11) was associated with an increased risk of exacerbation over 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.18, 1.92) and increased risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.20, 1.66) compared with quartiles 1–3. Conclusions Elevated NLR in stable COPD is a widely available biomarker associated with increased risk for exacerbation and death. The impact of cigarette smoking on NLR varies with disease severity.

Abstract Rationale Individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have airflow obstruction and maldistribution of ventilation. For those living at high altitude, any gas exchange abnormality is compounded by reduced partial pressures of inspired oxygen. Objectives Does residence at higher altitude exposure affect COPD outcomes, including lung function, imaging characteristics, symptoms, health status, functional exercise capacity, exacerbations, and mortality? Methods From the SPIROMICS (Subpopulation and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) cohort, we identified individuals with COPD living below 1,000 ft (305 m) elevation (n = 1,367) versus above 4,000 ft (1,219 m) elevation (n = 288). Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate associations of exposure to high altitude with COPD-related outcomes. Measurements and Main Results Living at higher altitude was associated with reduced functional exercise capacity as defined by 6-minute-walk distance (−32.3 m [95% confidence interval, −49.8 to −14.8 m]). There were no differences in patient-reported outcomes as defined by symptoms (COPD Assessment Test and modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale), or health status (St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire). Higher altitude was not associated with a different rate of FEV1 decline. Higher altitude was associated with lower odds of severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 0.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.90]). There were no differences in small airway disease, air trapping, or emphysema. In longitudinal analyses, higher altitude was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.25 [95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 1.55]); however, this association was no longer significant when accounting for air pollution. Conclusions Long-term altitude exposure is associated with reduced functional exercise capacity in individuals with COPD, but this did not translate into differences in symptoms or health status. In addition, long-term high-altitude exposure did not affect progression of disease as defined by longitudinal changes in spirometry. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01969344).

HCC recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) is highly morbid and occurs despite strict patient selection criteria. Individualized prediction of post-LT HCC recurrence risk remains an important need. Clinico-radiologic and pathologic data of 4981 patients with HCC undergoing LT from the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium (UMHTC) were analyzed to develop a REcurrent Liver cAncer Prediction ScorE (RELAPSE). Multivariable Fine and Gray competing risk analysis and machine learning algorithms (Random Survival Forest and Classification and Regression Tree models) identified variables to model HCC recurrence. RELAPSE was externally validated in 1160 HCC LT recipients from the European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant study group. Of 4981 UMHTC patients with HCC undergoing LT, 71.9% were within Milan criteria, 16.1% were initially beyond Milan criteria with 9.4% downstaged before LT, and 12.0% had incidental HCC on explant pathology. Overall and recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 89.7%, 78.6%, and 69.8% and 86.8%, 74.9%, and 66.7%, respectively, with a 5-year incidence of HCC recurrence of 12.5% (median 16 months) and non-HCC mortality of 20.8%. A multivariable model identified maximum alpha-fetoprotein (HR = 1.35 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.22–1.50, p < 0.001), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 1.16 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.04–1.28, p < 0.006), pathologic maximum tumor diameter (HR = 1.53 per-log SD, 95% CI, 1.35–1.73, p < 0.001), microvascular (HR = 2.37, 95%–CI, 1.87–2.99, p < 0.001) and macrovascular (HR = 3.38, 95% CI, 2.41–4.75, p < 0.001) invasion, and tumor differentiation (moderate HR = 1.75, 95% CI, 1.29–2.37, p < 0.001; poor HR = 2.62, 95% CI, 1.54–3.32, p < 0.001) as independent variables predicting post-LT HCC recurrence (C-statistic = 0.78). Machine learning algorithms incorporating additional covariates improved prediction of recurrence (Random Survival Forest C-statistic = 0.81). Despite significant differences in European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant recipient radiologic, treatment, and pathologic characteristics, external validation of RELAPSE demonstrated consistent 2- and 5-year recurrence risk discrimination (AUCs 0.77 and 0.75, respectively). We developed and externally validated a RELAPSE score that accurately discriminates post-LT HCC recurrence risk and may allow for individualized post-LT surveillance, immunosuppression modification, and selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant therapies.

NAFLD will soon be the most common indication for liver transplantation (LT). In NAFLD, HCC may occur at earlier stages of fibrosis and present with more advanced tumor stage, raising concern for aggressive disease. Thus, adult LT recipients with HCC from 20 US centers transplanted between 2002 and 2013 were analyzed to determine whether NAFLD impacts recurrence-free post-LT survival. Five hundred and thirty-eight (10.8%) of 4981 total patients had NAFLD. Patients with NAFLD were significantly older (63 vs. 58, p<0.001), had higher body mass index (30.5 vs. 27.4, p<0.001), and were more likely to have diabetes (57.3% vs. 28.8%, p<0.001). Patients with NAFLD were less likely to receive pre-LT locoregional therapy (63.6% vs. 72.9%, p<0.001), had higher median lab MELD (15 vs. 13, p<0.001) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (3.8 vs. 2.9, p<0.001), and were more likely to have their maximum pre-LT alpha fetoprotein at time of LT (44.1% vs. 36.1%, p<0.001). NAFLD patients were more likely to have an incidental HCC on explant (19.4% vs. 10.4%, p<0.001); however, explant characteristics including tumor differentiation and vascular invasion were not different between groups. Comparing NAFLD and non-NAFLD patients, the 1, 3, and 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence (3.1%, 9.1%, 11.5% vs. 4.9%, 10.1%, 12.6%, p=0.36) and recurrence-free survival rates (87%, 76%, and 67% vs. 87%, 75%, and 67%, p=0.97) were not different. In competing risks analysis, NAFLD did not significantly impact recurrence in univariable (HR: 0.88, p=0.36) nor in adjusted analysis (HR: 0.91, p=0.49). With NAFLD among the most common causes of HCC and poised to become the leading indication for LT, a better understanding of disease-specific models to predict recurrence is needed. In this NAFLD cohort, incidental HCCs were common, raising concerns about early detection. However, despite less locoregional therapy and high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, explant tumor characteristics and post-transplant recurrence-free survival were not different compared to non-NAFLD patients.

Introduction: Left ventricular assist device (LVAD) is known to extend survival in patients with advanced heart failure but it is associated with intracranial cranial hemorrhage (ICH). In the last decade, the use of LVAD substantially increased along with advances in LVAD technology, but there is limited data regarding the trends of ICH risk and predictors in patients with LVAD. Methods: We included the patients aged≥18 years with primary diagnosis of LVAD hospitalized in the US from 2005 to 2014 using the National Inpatient Sample. We computed the survey weighted percentages with ICH across the 10-year study period and assessed whether the proportions changed over time. Predictors of ICH were evaluated using the multivariable logistic regression model. All analyses were appropriately adjusted for the survey design variables to account for the complex survey design. Results: Of 33,246 hospitalizations, 568 (1.7%) had ICH. The number of LVAD placement has increased from 873 in year 2005 to 5,175 in year 2014. However, the risk of ICH remained largely unchanged from 1.7% to 2.3% (linear trend: p=0.604). The adjusted odds of ICH was increased with the presence one of the following variables: female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-2.43), history of ischemic stroke (OR: 3.13, 95% CI 1.86-5.28), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) of ≥3 (OR: 77.40, 95% CI 10.03-597.60). Conclusions: Despite advances in LVAD technology and its increased use in patients with advanced heart failure, the risk of ICH has remained relatively unchanged. High CCI and history of ischemic stroke were associated with higher odds of ICH in patients with LVAD. With the advent of magnetically levitated centrifugal-flow LVAD, future trend of ICH may change and further research efforts are needed to prevent ICH in patients with LVAD.

Introduction: Retinal microvascular abnormalities have been associated with stroke, but their association with dementia and death is less well described. We tested the hypothesis that retinopathy is associated with stroke, dementia, and age-adjusted mortality. Methods: Data were obtained from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 2005 to 2008, with linked mortality through 2015. Severity of retinopathy was defined as no retinopathy, mild nonproliferative retinopathy (NPR), moderate-severe NPR, and proliferative retinopathy. Logistic regression models were performed to evaluate the relationships between retinopathy, stroke, and dementia, respectively. Independent relationships between retinopathy and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox regression models, before and after adjusting for covariates. All analyses were adjusted for the complex survey design. Results: Of 5,543 participants aged ≥18 years with gradable retinal imaging, 696 had retinopathy, 289 had stroke, and 597 had dementia. Mean age of subjects was 56.3 ± 11.7 years. Retinopathy was associated with higher risk of stroke (adj OR 2.39, P <0.001) and dementia (adj OR 1.68, P =0.005). Over a median duration of 118 months (IQR 111-125), there was a dose-dependent relationship between severity of retinopathy and all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratios were 1.0, 1.5, 2.4, 3.4 across retinopathy severity; P =0.021). The Figure shows the age-adjusted cumulative mortality curves by retinopathy severity. Conclusions: Participants with retinopathy have a greater than 2-fold increase in stroke risk and a 1.7-fold increase in dementia risk. Having more severe retinopathy confers a higher risk of death after adjusting for age and vascular risk factors. The retina may serve as a tissue biomarker in intervention trials for cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative diseases.

Background and Aims The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network recently approved liver transplant (LT) prioritization for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan Criteria (MC) who are down‐staged (DS) with locoregional therapy (LRT). We evaluated post‐LT outcomes, predictors of down‐staging, and the impact of LRT in patients with beyond‐MC HCC from the U.S. Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium (20 centers, 2002‐2013). Approach and Results Clinicopathologic characteristics, overall survival (OS), recurrence‐free survival (RFS), and HCC recurrence (HCC‐R) were compared between patients within MC (n = 3,570) and beyond MC (n = 789) who were down‐staged (DS, n = 465), treated with LRT and not down‐staged (LRT‐NoDS, n = 242), or untreated (NoLRT‐NoDS, n = 82). Five‐year post‐LT OS and RFS was higher in MC (71.3% and 68.2%) compared with DS (64.3% and 59.5%) and was lowest in NoDS (n = 324; 60.2% and 53.8%; overall P < 0.001). DS patients had superior RFS (60% vs. 54%, P = 0.043) and lower 5‐year HCC‐R (18% vs. 32%, P < 0.001) compared with NoDS, with further stratification by maximum radiologic tumor diameter (5‐year HCC‐R of 15.5% in DS/<5 cm and 39.1% in NoDS/>5 cm, P < 0.001). Multivariate predictors of down‐staging included alpha‐fetoprotein response to LRT, pathologic tumor number and size, and wait time >12 months. LRT‐NoDS had greater HCC‐R compared with NoLRT‐NoDS (34.1% vs. 26.1%, P < 0.001), even after controlling for clinicopathologic variables (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.33, P < 0.001) and inverse probability of treatment‐weighted propensity matching (HR = 1.82, P < 0.001). Conclusions In LT recipients with HCC presenting beyond MC, successful down‐staging is predicted by wait time, alpha‐fetoprotein response to LRT, and tumor burden and results in excellent post‐LT outcomes, justifying expansion of LT criteria. In LRT‐NoDS patients, higher HCC‐R compared with NoLRT‐NoDS cannot be explained by clinicopathologic differences, suggesting a potentially aggravating role of LRT in patients with poor tumor biology that warrants further investigation.