O’Neal, Wanda K.

Abstract Rationale Mismatch of airway to lung size has been implicated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathophysiology, whether arising from disproportioned growth or from acquired pathologies over the life course. Lower airway-to-lung ratio (ALR), assessed reproducibly via computed tomography (CT) as the mean airway lumen diameters (trachea-to-subsegments) divided by the cubed root of lung volume, is associated with COPD risk and mortality (all-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, lung cancer). We sought to characterize the airway biology associated with lower ALR by profiling bronchial gene expression across current and former smokers. Methods We leveraged clinical, radiologic, and bronchial epithelial RNA sequencing data from the SPIROMICS (SubPopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study) Phase 1 Bronchoscopy Sub-study (n = 161). To analyze transcriptional differential expression (DE) between participants based on CT-assessed ALR, we utilized DESeq2 and then identified impacted pathways by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA). Generating cell-type transcriptional signatures from lung and blood single cell sequencing atlases, we also assessed association of ALR with differences in airway cellular composition. Results Across all ever-smokers, after adjustment for age, sex, height, COPD status, smoking status, and pack-years, n = 1,324 genes from airway epithelial samples exhibited DE at a false discovery rate (FDR) <0.2. Per IPA, enriched pathways associated with lower ALR included neutrophilic degranulation and macrophage activity. In cell type analysis, lower ALR was associated with higher signatures of macrophages, neutrophils, dendritic cells, and B cells, and lower ciliated and club cell signatures. When we repeated DE analysis using the same covariate adjustments plus an interaction term for ALR and smoking, n = 713 DE genes were identified at FDR <0.2; the association of DE with lower ALR was overwhelmingly in current rather than former smokers (3699 vs. 2 genes). By pathway and cell type analyses, the association between lower ALR and heightened inflammation (greater macrophage and neutrophil signaling) and epithelial dysregulation (downregulated ciliated and club cell function) was primarily restricted to current smokers. Conclusions In adult ever-smokers, lower ALR is associated with transcriptomic evidence of heightened neutrophil- and macrophage-driven airway inflammation and reduced ciliated and club cell expression, associations that were most evident among current smokers. Whether these cross-sectional patterns, which suggest impaired mucociliary defense and a diminished capacity to clear inhaled particulates, are the result of pre-existing reduced ALR, its cause, or both, will require further investigation. This abstract is funded by: SPIROMICS was supported by contracts from the NIH/NHLBI (HHSN268200900013C, HHSN268200900014C, HHSN268200900015C, HHSN268200900016C, HHSN268200900017C, HHSN268200900018C, HHSN268200900019C, HHSN268200900020C, 75N92024D00012), grants from the NIH/NHLBI (U01HL137880, U24HL141762, R01HL182622, R01HL144718, and R01HL093081), and supplemented by contributions made through the Foundation for the NIH and the COPD Foundation from Amgen; AstraZeneca/MedImmune; Bayer; Bellerophon Therapeutics; Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Bristol Myers Squibb; Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A.; Forest Research Institute, Inc.; Genentech; GlaxoSmithKline; Grifols Therapeutics, Inc.; Ikaria, Inc.; MGC Diagnostics; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Nycomed GmbH; Polarean; ProterixBio; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Sanofi; Sunovion; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; Theravance Biopharma; Verona; and Mylan/Viatris.

Abstract Rationale Eosinophilic airway inflammation in COPD is associated with more frequent exacerbations,lower lung function,and corticosteroid responsiveness.DNA methylation captures information about genetic factors and environmental exposures, but is under-studied in eosinophilic COPD.We hypothesized that sputum cell methylation patterns reflect genomic regulation of inflammatory endotypes in COPD by DNA sequence variation. Methods We analyzed DNA previously extracted from induced sputum cells for a prior study(PMID38261629) for which sufficient quantity DNA remained for methylation arrays.For this analysis,we focused on n = 132 SPIROMICS participants with ≥20 pack-years smoking history.Samples were stratified into tertiles based on sputum eosinophil proportions,previously determined from sputum cell differential analysis by the centralized sputum analysis core for SPIROMICS(Univ of North Carolina).We assessed proportion of DNA methylation (β values) spanning 936,866 CpG sites using the Illumina Infinium Methylation EPICv2.0 BeadChip Array,which we transformed into M values(meffil R package). To identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs)(FDR<0.05 in minimum of 2 CpG sites per gene region),we contrasted CpG β values between the high-eosinophil and low-eosinophil tertiles(N = 44 each),using the DMRcate package.We tested for enrichment of genes overlapping with significant DMRs using Enrichr (GWAS Catalog 2025 gene set library).To identify genetic variants associated with DNA methylation levels,we performed Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci (meQTL) analysis using TensorQTL.For each CpG site,we tested associations with SNPs within a ± 500 kb window (cis-meQTL).The linear regression model included age,sex,BMI,smoking status,smoking pack-years,study site,inhaled corticosteroid use, the first two genetic principal components, cell-type proportions (macrophages/monocytes, neutrophils, squamous epithelial cells, lymphocytes), and eosinophil tertile . Significant meQTLs were identified at an FDR<0.05 using Benjamini-Hochberg correction. Results A total of 532 eosinophil-associated DMRs (FDR < 0.05) were identified between the high- and low-eosinophil groups,encompassing 446 unique genes.The top enriched pathways related to counts of eosinophils (adjusted p = 0. 00002464), lymphocytes (adjusted p = 0.0001860), and the sum of eosinophils-plus-basophils (adjusted p = 0.0001860).We identified 18,432 significant SNP-CpG/meQTL pairs (FDR < 0.05),suggesting extensive genetic influence on airway DNA methylation patterns.Among the n = 521 eosinophil-associated CpGs that overlapped with meQTLs,rs55687040 (TENT2,a gene involved in mRNA and miRNA processing) is a GWAS locus for FEV1/FVC ratio (PMID: 26634245), suggesting possible genetic control of airway eosinophilic methylation signatures. Conclusions Our findings disclose distinct DNA methylation signatures associated with sputum eosinophil proportion in COPD.A subset of these CpGs are regulated by genetic variants,suggesting an integrated genetic-epigenetic mechanism underlying airway eosinophilic inflammation with the potential to influence COPD risk and severity. This abstract is funded by: SPIROMICS was supported by contracts from the NIH/NHLBI (HHSN268200900013C, HHSN268200900014C, HHSN268200900015C, HHSN268200900016C, HHSN268200900017C, HHSN268200900018C, HHSN268200900019C, HHSN268200900020C), grants from the NIH/NHLBI (U01 HL137880, U24 HL141762, R01 HL182622, and R01 HL144718), and supplemented by contributions made through the Foundation for the NIH and the COPD Foundation from Amgen; AstraZeneca/MedImmune; Bayer; Bellerophon Therapeutics; Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A.; Forest Research Institute, Inc.; Genentech; GlaxoSmithKline; Grifols Therapeutics, Inc.; Ikaria, Inc.; MGC Diagnostics; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Nycomed GmbH; Polarean; ProterixBio; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Sanofi; Sunovion; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; and Theravance Biopharma and Mylan/Viatris.

Abstract Rationale Thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) is an epithelial alarmin chiefly implicated in T2 airway inflammation, though it may also participate in broader (non-T2) inflammatory processes. The utility of airway epithelial gene expression of TSLP and its specific receptor subunit, cytokine receptor-like factor 2 (CRLF2), as biomarkers of downstream inflammation and clinical outcomes remains unclear. Methods We analyzed RNA sequencing data from bronchial airway brushing obtained in phase 1 of the SPIROMICS bronchoscopy sub-study (N = 161: 23 never-smokers, 67 ever-smokers with COPD, 71 ever-smokers without COPD). We related airway TSLP and CRLF2 expression to clinical, hematologic/sputum measures, and gene-expression signatures of T2/eosinophilic and neutrophilic inflammation, including to our published T2 signature and to eosinophil and neutrophil signatures derived from single-cell atlas data. Associations used Spearman correlations and linear models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, COPD status, smoking status, and pack-years. Results CRLF2 expression correlated with gene-expression evidence of both T2/eosinophilic and neutrophilic inflammation: T2 signature (ρ = 0.26, p < 0.001), eosinophil signature (ρ = 0.44, p < 0.001), and neutrophil signature (ρ = 0.39, p < 0.001). CRLF2 was positively associated with log sputum neutrophil count (ρ = 0.24, p = 0.024) and blood neutrophil count (ρ = 0.036, p < 0.001), but not with sputum or blood eosinophil counts. Higher CRLF2 related to worse baseline lung function, particularly among current smokers, (lower post-bronchodilator FEV1: ρ = −0.21, p = 0.008), as well as greater 5-year FEV1 decline across current and former smokers (ρ = −0.22, p = 0.007). Significant findings persisted after covariate adjustment. In contrast, TSLP expression, although strongly correlated with expression of the epithelial alarmin IL33 (ρ = 0.53, p < 0.001), was negatively correlated with CRLF2 (ρ = −0.24, p = 0.002) and with eosinophil and neutrophil gene-expression signatures (ρ = −0.26 and −0.33, both p < 0.001). TSLP expression showed no association with sputum or blood cell counts. Conclusions In bronchial epithelium from SPIROMICS, gene expression of CRLF2, but not of TSLP, tracked with downstream alarmin-relevant inflammatory programs, consistent with a regulatory role in TSLP signaling through TSLPR, as well as with clinically meaningful outcomes. CRLF2 expression was associated with evidence of both T2/eosinophilic and neutrophilic inflammation, and with lower baseline FEV1 and accelerated FEV1 decline, suggesting engagement of a broader, clinically relevant inflammatory milieu. By contrast, epithelial TSLP transcript levels mirrored IL33 gene expression but were not associated with cellular or transcriptomic inflammation. These findings position CRLF2, rather than TSLP expression itself, as a potential airway biomarker of TSLP-axis activity and disease impact with potential implications for patient stratification as well as strategic approaches for TSLP-pathway-targeted therapies. This abstract is funded by: SPIROMICS was supported by contracts from the NIH/NHLBI (HHSN268200900013C, HHSN268200900014C, HHSN268200900015C, HHSN268200900016C, HHSN268200900017C, HHSN268200900018C, HHSN268200900019C, HHSN268200900020C, 75N92024D00012), grants from the NIH/NHLBI (U01HL137880, U24HL141762, R01HL182622, R01HL144718, and R01HL093081), and supplemented by contributions made through the Foundation for the NIH and the COPD Foundation from Amgen; AstraZeneca/MedImmune; Bayer; Bellerophon Therapeutics; Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Bristol Myers Squibb; Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A.; Forest Research Institute, Inc.; Genentech; GlaxoSmithKline; Grifols Therapeutics, Inc.; Ikaria, Inc.; MGC Diagnostics; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Nycomed GmbH; Polarean; ProterixBio; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Sanofi; Sunovion; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; Theravance Biopharma; Verona; and Mylan/Viatris.

Introduction Despite the identification of multiple susceptibility loci by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), considerable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) heritability remains unexplained. Aim To identify interaction networks of airway epithelial cell DNA methylation in COPD and further explore potential correlations with airway bacterial composition, as potentially collective regulators of biological pathways influencing COPD severity. Methods Using DNA isolated from bronchial airway brushings of 67 ever-smokers (>20 pack-years) from the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), we assessed proportion of DNA methylation (β) by epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) and examined associations of differentially methylated CpG probes (DMPs) with risk for moderate-to-severe COPD (N=34) versus absent or mild COPD (N=33). We tested co-methylation modules generated by Weighted Correlation Network Analyses (WGCNA) for associations with moderate-to-severe COPD and with bacterial genus-level relative abundances (16S rRNA sequencing). Results EWAS-identified nominally significant DMPs enriched for lung function GWAS loci. Eigengenes in six WGCNA modules were associated with moderate-to-severe COPD (false discovery rate <0.05). Four of those modules were enriched for forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity GWAS loci, and five overlapped with DMPs from EWAS. Overlapping CpG loci in three COPD-associated modules were adjacent to mucin genes; one had 10 genes highly ranked by connectivity with MUC5B, including important pathway genes: B3GNT6 , DGKI and ITGA8 . CpGs in an independent COPD-associated module showed the most correlations with Rothia , with directionality suggestive of negative associations with moderate-severe COPD. Conclusions Bronchial epithelial DNA methylation modules enriched for lung function GWAS loci associate with COPD severity in SPIROMICS. Potential module relationships to bronchial bacterial composition require further validation.

Abstract Rationale Inflammation is central to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathogenesis but incompletely represented in COPD prognostic models. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a readily available inflammatory biomarker. Objectives To explore the associations of NLR with smoking status, clinical features of COPD, and future adverse outcomes. Methods We analyzed NLR calculated from the complete blood count of participants who currently or formerly smoked (n = 2,624) and tobacco-naive control subjects (n = 187) in the SPIROMICS multicenter observational cohort study. We assessed the stability of NLR at 6 weeks and 1 year, the association with select blood biomarkers, and the impact of smoking on NLR and cell counts. We stratified participants by NLR quartiles to compare cross-sectional clinical features at enrollment, prospectively observed exacerbations at 1 year, and mortality during longitudinal follow up. Results Higher NLR quartiles were broadly associated with more severe clinical features of COPD. NLR values were repeatable at 6 weeks (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.74) and 1 year (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.62). The impact of smoking on NLR varied with the severity of airflow limitation, mediated by an interaction between smoking, forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted, and neutrophil counts but not lymphocyte counts. The highest NLR quartile (&gt;3.11) was associated with an increased risk of exacerbation over 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.18, 1.92) and increased risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.20, 1.66) compared with quartiles 1–3. Conclusions Elevated NLR in stable COPD is a widely available biomarker associated with increased risk for exacerbation and death. The impact of cigarette smoking on NLR varies with disease severity.

Abstract Rationale: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a heterogeneous, rare genetic disorder characterized by dysfunctional motile cilia. PCD pulmonary manifestations include impaired airway mucociliary clearance, mucus obstruction, recurrent infection, and bronchiectasis (BE). Notably, thoracic imaging studies indicate that alveolar atelectasis is more prevalent in children with PCD than in age-matched children with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, morphologic and molecular analyses of the site of initiation and progression of PCD airway disease and relationships to PCD alveolar disease have not been reported. In this study, we analyzed region-specific morphologic and molecular characterizations of airway epithelia and alveolar regions in PCD lungs excised at transplantation to address these questions. Methods: Nine PCD lungs and seven non-diseased control lungs were included in the morphometric studies. Bronchi and proximal and distal bronchioles were defined using unique morphologic structures, and distal airway secretory cell (DASC) markers were used to differentiate between proximal and distal bronchioles. Morphologic characteristics of airway epithelia and luminal mucus were quantitated by histology, immunohistochemistry, and RNA in situ hybridization. Spatial transcriptomic technologies (GeoMx) characterized region-specific transcript expression in three airway epithelial regions (bronchi, proximal bronchioles, and distal bronchioles), intraluminal mucus plugs, and alveolar regions of PCD compared to control lungs. Finally, pulmonary function data from a cohort of PCD subjects were analyzed to investigate correlations between alveolar morphologic findings and alveolar gas exchange function, i.e. diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO). Results: PCD bronchi and proximal bronchioles exhibited ectasia, characterized by increased MUC5AC and MUC5B-producing cells, mucus plugs containing MUC5AC and MUC5B mucins infiltrated by neutrophils, and epithelial gene signatures associated with ectasia. In contrast, PCD distal bronchioles were not ectatic and exhibited MUC5B-dominant DASCs, mucus plugs containing selectively MUC5B mucin infiltrated by mixture of neutrophils and macrophages, and gene signatures suggestive of impaired ciliogenesis. Molecular analysis revealed upregulation of pathways associated with muco-inflammation, antimicrobial defense, and the innate immune system routinely in PCD airway epithelia. IL-1β gene signatures were observed in both PCD airway and alveolar epithelia, whereas interferon-stimulated gene signatures were restricted to airway epithelia. Transcriptomic and morphologic analyses suggested that PCD alveolar disease was initiated by distal bronchiolar obstruction, associated with chronic microatelectasis, progressive loss of alveolar epithelial type 2 (AT2) cells, and eventual non-resolving fibrosis. A significant percentage (28%) of people with PCD exhibited reduced DLCO. Conclusions: PCD airway disease is manifest by distinct profiles of proximal vs distal bronchiolar disease associated with microatelectatic and fibrotic alveolar disease.

Abstract Rationale: Adverse social determinants of health (SDOH) are common in COPD and associated with increased mortality. However, cause-specific mortality is understudied. We evaluated associations of neighborhood-level SDOH with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among individuals with or at-risk for COPD. Methods: SPIROMICS is an ongoing, multi-center, longitudinal observational study of individuals across the US with current or former personal smoking histories (≥20 pack-years), with or without spirometrically-defined COPD. We established geocoded neighborhood-level SDOH at baseline using 2010 census tract data, including specifically, area deprivation index (ADI) (range 0-100, 100 = most disadvantaged), poverty level (percentage of households below the poverty line), poor food access (&gt;1/3 of residents with no access to fresh food stores within 1 mile in urban areas and 10 miles in rural areas), and food desert (low income plus poor food access). We ascertained all-cause and cause-specific mortality through 12/31/2021 using the National Death Index. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we evaluated the risk of all-cause mortality for each SDOH. We utilized competing-risk regression models to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular, respiratory, COPD (a subset of respiratory), and neoplastic causes of death individually with each SDOH. Models were adjusted for demographics, smoking status, pack-years, BMI categories, coronary heart disease, FEV1% predicted and study site. Effect modification by lung function was assessed using multiplicative interactions between SDOH and FEV1% predicted. Results: Among 2977 participants, mean ADI was 40.1±27.8. Within a participant's neighborhood, on average 10.4±10.4% of households were below the poverty line, 933 (31.3%) had poor food access, and 220 (7.4%) resided in a food desert. During a median follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 5.6-9.2), 744 (25.0%) participants died, most commonly from respiratory causes including COPD. Neither ADI nor neighborhood poverty level were associated with all-cause mortality or any specific cause of death (Table). Despite lack of associations between food access and mortality (Table), individuals residing in a food desert had elevated risks of all-cause (HR: 1.36 [95%CI: 1.03-1.79]) and cardiovascular (HR: 2.62 [95%CI: 1.5-4.35]) deaths. There was no significant effect modification by lung function. Conclusions: In a large cohort of individuals with personal smoking histories, with or without COPD, living in a food desert was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, neighborhood poverty level and food access, the two components of food desert, were not independently associated with mortality, suggesting the association of multimodal SDOH variables with mortality in this population.

Abstract Rationale: MUC5B and MUC5AC are neighboring genes on chromosome 11p15 that encode the two predominant mucins secreted in the respiratory airways. Increased airway mucin concentrations and an imbalance between these two mucins drive COPD symptoms and the development of airflow obstruction or COPD, but the epigenomic regulation of this loci has not been characterized in the airways. Methods: We isolated DNA from bronchial airway brushings of 72 participants with &gt;20 pack-years smoking history from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS). 36 participants had GOLD-based moderate-to-severe COPD (FEV1/FVC&lt;0.70, FEV1&lt;80%) and 36 were without or with mild COPD. We used the Illumina Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip Array to assess proportion of DNA methylation (β) spanning 689,937 CpG sites. We evaluated proportional DNA methylation (β) at 96 CpG loci within a 103kB region using matrixQTL for cis-expression quantitative trait methylation (eQTM: 10kB flanks relative to MUC5AC/MUC5B) integrating bulk RNA-seq data and mQTL models integrating gene sequencing data to identify DNA variation associated with proportion eQTM methylation. Models included age, sex, BMI, clinical site, current smoking vs past smoking, total pack-years, three ancestral components of ancestry, chipset, and position. Results: We identified a top eQTM, cg00524486, marginally associated with MUC5B expression (coefficient estimate=8.75, punadjusted=0.0014, pFDR=0.065, Figure 1B). This eQTM was associated with CT scan parametric response mapping-based functional small airways disease (PRM-fSAD, beta coefficient[β]=3.64, p=0.011). We tested for DNA variation associated with methylation of this top eQTM which identified two methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL: rs885454 [β=0.044, minor allele frequency[MAF]=0.09, pFDR=0.01], rs868902 [β=0.020, MAF=0.43, pFDR=0.08, Figure 1A) associated with cg00524486 methylation, of which the more frequent mQTL, rs868902, was marginally associated with PRM-fSAD (p=0.07) in the larger SPIROMICS cohort with MUC5B DNA sequencing data. Conclusions: This preliminary multi-omic study of the lower airway epithelium demonstrates that the expression of MUC5B is epigenetically regulated by neighboring CpG probe methylation (eQTM) represented by DNA variation (mQTL). These studies require further confirmation in a larger dataset of airway samples and support a role for epigenetic variation as a biologic contributor and biomarker of early COPD pathogenesis.

Abstract Rationale: Individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have different clinical trajectories, some with minimal symptom burden, others experiencing recurrent exacerbations, the most severe of which require hospitalization. Existing diagnostics, including spirometry and symptom assessments, lack the precision to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from timely preventive therapies. Nuclear cell-free DNA (ncfDNA) is a well-established marker of systemic tissue injury, implicated in amplifying inflammation by triggering type 1 interferon release by activating DNA-sensing pathways. Because COPD is accompanied by inflammation and tissue injury systemically, we hypothesized that ncfDNA is associated with increased risk of severe exacerbations requiring hospitalization. Methods: Design: We utilized baseline plasma samples randomly selected from 672 individuals with COPD from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort, which prospectively collected exacerbation numbers and type. The primary endpoint was exacerbation requiring hospitalization. Secondary endpoints included total number of exacerbations (defined as use of oral steroids, antibiotics, or healthcare utilization) and severe exacerbations (defined as requiring emergency room care or hospitalization). Measure: We measured plasma ncfDNA using digital droplet PCR. Analysis: We assessed the association of ncfDNA with exacerbation outcomes using negative binomial regression or Cox regression, adjusting for age, percent post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), supplemental oxygen use, and smoking status. Results: In total, 57% (n=383) of COPD participants experienced exacerbations, 29% (n=197) at least one severe, and 22% (n=145) requiring hospitalization, the latter at a median of 622 days from enrollment (IQR=287-997). Higher ncfDNA levels at enrollment correlated with measures of COPD severity, including baseline FEV1 (beta = -0.12, 95% CI -0.18 to -0.049, p &lt;0.001). Higher ncfDNA associated with increased risk of COPD exacerbation requiring hospitalization (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.40, 95% CI 1.12-1.75, p =0.003) and severe exacerbations (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11-1.67, p=0.002) and a trend towards total exacerbations (IRR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98-1.26, p= 0.09). The primary outcome, risk of time-to-first hospitalization, correlated significantly with higher ncfDNA with hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.49, p=0.037. Conclusion: These results suggest that ncfDNA may serve as a predictor for severe and hospitalization-associated COPD exacerbations. To better understand the relationship between ncfDNA and COPD pathophysiology, follow-up studies should explore longitudinal trends and cfDNA tissue sources, and their link to COPD exacerbations.