Roger, Véronique L.

Objectives To characterize the individual and combined effects of multimorbidity and functional limitation on healthcare use and mortality in a large, community cohort of individuals with heart failure (HF). Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Eleven southeastern Minnesota counties. Participants Individuals (mean age 74, 54% male) with a first‐ever HF code ( International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 428 or Tenth Revision code I50) between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2016 (N=2,692). Measurements Eight activities of daily living measured using a survey on a Likert scale (1=without any difficulty, 5=unable to do; median=8). Participants with a score greater than 8 were categorized as having functional limitation. Multimorbidity was defined as having 2 or more noncardiac comorbidities. Results Twenty‐five percent of participants had neither multimorbidity nor functional limitation, 35% had multimorbidity, 9% had functional limitation, and 31% had both. After adjustment, participants with multimorbidity and functional limitation had greater risks of all outcomes (death: hazard ratio (HR)=4.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=3.03–8.00; emergency department (ED) visit: HR=3.67, 95% CI=2.94–4.59; hospitalization: HR=3.66, 95% CI=2.85–4.70; outpatient visit: HR=1.73, 95% CI=1.52–1.96) than those with neither. Participants with functional limitation alone had greater risks of death (HR=4.84, 95% CI=2.78–8.43), ED visits (HR=2.35, 95% CI=1.75–3.16), and hospitalizations (HR=2.10, 95% CI=1.52–2.88) but not outpatient visits. Those with multimorbidity alone had similar risks of ED visits and hospitalizations as those with functional limitation alone but were more likely to have outpatient visits (HR=1.50, 95% CI=1.34–1.67). Conclusion Individuals with both multimorbidity and functional limitation have the highest risk of death and healthcare use. Individuals with only functional limitation have similar rates of hospitalizations and ED visits as those with only multimorbidity, underscoring the need to consider both when managing individuals with HF.

Background Current American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines recommend the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) and TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) scores to assess myocardial infarction ( MI ) prognosis. Changes in the epidemiological characteristics of MI and the availability of new biomarkers warrant an assessment of the performance of these scores in contemporary practice. We assessed the following: (1) the performance of GRACE and TIMI to predict 1‐year mortality in a cohort of patients stratified by ST ‐segment elevation MI (STEMI) and non‐STEMI ( NSTEMI ) and (2) the incremental discriminatory power of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2, a myocardial fibrosis biomarker. Methods and Results Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with incident MI (N=1401) were recruited prospectively from November 1, 2002 to December 31, 2012 (mean age, 67 years; 61% men; 79% with NSTEMI ). Baseline data were used to calculate risk scores; soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 was measured in stored plasma samples obtained at index MI . C ‐statistics adapted to survival data were used to assess the discriminatory power of the risk scores and the improvement gained by adding other markers. During the first year of follow‐up, 190 patients (14%) died. The discriminatory performance to predict death was reasonable for GRACE and poor for TIMI , and was generally worse in those with NSTEMI versus those with STEMI. In people with NSTEMI , sequential addition of comorbidities and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 substantially improved the c ‐statistic over GRACE (from 0.78 to 0.80 to 0.84) and TIMI (from 0.61 to 0.73 to 0.81), respectively (all P ≤0.05). Conclusions Guideline‐recommended scores for risk assessment after MI underperform in contemporary community patients, particularly those with NSTEMI, which now represents most infarcts. Incorporating comorbidities and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 substantially improves risk prediction, thereby delineating opportunities to improve clinical care.

Background: A diagnosis of heart failure (HF) often requires a comprehensive lifestyle change to maintain disease stability. When patients with HF are married, the spouse frequently assumes the caregiving role. Our objectives were to describe the health of spouses of married patients with HF, and examine whether the health of a spouse impacts patient outcomes. Methods and Results: We identified 905 patients that were married at the time of incident HF diagnosis in Olmsted County, MN, from 2000 to 2012. Using Rochester Epidemiology Project resources, the patient and their spouse’s comprehensive longitudinal health histories were linked. Spousal health at patient HF diagnosis was assessed by comorbidity burden, self-reported difficulty with activities of daily living and prior hospitalizations. The associations of spousal health with patient outcomes and patient death with spousal outcomes were examined using Cox and Andersen–Gill models. Spouses of patients with HF were elderly (mean age, 71 years), often had comorbid conditions, and 16% had difficulty with ≥1 activities of daily living. After adjustment for patient age, sex, and comorbidity, there were no independent associations of spousal health and patient risk of death or hospitalization after HF diagnosis. However, the risk of hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.60; P =0.002) and death (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.60–2.75; P <0.001) increased in the surviving spouse after patient death. Conclusions: We found no evidence that the health of a spouse impacts patient outcomes after HF diagnosis. However, after a patient with HF dies, their surviving spouse’s risk of hospitalization and death increases.

Objectives To investigate the effect of the number and type of comorbid conditions on death and hospitalizations in individuals with incident heart failure ( HF ). Design Population‐based cohort study. Setting Olmsted County, Minnesota. Participants Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with incident HF from 2000 to 2010 (mean age 76 ± 14, 56% female) (N = 1,714). Measurements The prevalence of 16 chronic conditions obtained at HF diagnosis classified into three groups: cardiovascular ( CV ) related, other physical, and mental. Results The mean number of conditions per participant was 2.6 ± 1.5 for CV ‐related conditions, 1.3 ± 1.1 for other physical conditions, and 0.30 ± 0.61 for mental conditions. After a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years, 1,073 deaths and 6,306 hospitalizations had occurred. After adjustment for age, sex, ejection fraction, in‐ or outpatient status, and number of other conditions, an increase of one other physical condition was associated with a 14% ( HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.08–1.20) greater risk of death and a 26% ( HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.20–1.32) greater risk of hospitalization, and an increase of one mental condition was associated with a 31% ( HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.19–1.44) greater risk of death and an 18% ( HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07–1.29) greater risk of hospitalization. In contrast, an increase of one CV ‐related condition was not associated with greater risk of death and was associated with a 10% ( HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06–1.15) greater risk of hospitalization. Conclusion CV ‐related conditions are the most common type of comorbid conditions in individuals with HF , but other physical and mental conditions are more strongly associated with death and hospitalizations. This underscores the effect of non‐ CV conditions on outcomes in HF .

Background While atrial fibrillation is a recognized risk factor for stroke, contemporary data on trends in stroke incidence after the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation are scarce. Methods and Results Olmsted County, MN residents with incident atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (collectively referred to as AF ) from 2000 to 2010 were identified. Cox regression determined associations of year of AF diagnosis with ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack ( TIA ) occurring through 2013. Among 3247 AF patients, 321 (10%) had an ischemic stroke/ TIA over a mean of 4.6 years (incidence rate [95% CI ] per 100 person‐years: 2.14 [1.91–2.38]). Two hundred thirty‐nine (7%) of 3265 AF patients experienced an ischemic stroke (incidence rate: 1.54 [1.35–1.75]). The risk of both outcomes remained unchanged over time after adjusting for demographics and comorbidities (hazard ratio [95% CI ] per year of AF diagnosis: 1.00 [0.96–1.04] for ischemic stroke/ TIA ; 1.01 [0.96–1.06] for ischemic stroke only). In analyses restricted to patients with prescription information, the rates of anticoagulation use did not change over time, reaching 50.8% at 1 year after AF diagnosis. Further adjustment for anticoagulation use did not alter the temporal trends in stroke incidence (hazard ratio [95% CI ] per year of AF diagnosis: 1.06 [0.97–1.15] for ischemic stroke/ TIA ; 1.08 [0.98–1.20] for ischemic stroke only). Conclusions Strokes/ TIA s are frequent after AF , occurring in 10% of patients after 5 years of follow‐up. The occurrence of stroke/ TIA did not decline over the last decade, which may be influenced by a leveling off of anticoagulation use. This concerning trend has major public health implications.

Objective The goal of this study was to identify distinct frailty trajectories (clusters of individuals following a similar progression of frailty over time) in an ageing population and to determine social and behavioural factors associated with frailty trajectories. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting Olmsted County, Minnesota. Participants Olmsted County, Minnesota residents aged 60–89 in 2005. Primary outcome measure Changes in frailty over an 8-year period from 2005 to 2012, measured by constructing a yearly frailty index. Frailty trajectories by decade of age were determined using k-means cluster modelling for longitudinal data. Results After adjustment for age and sex, all social and behavioural factors (education, marital status, living arrangements, smoking status and alcohol use) were significantly associated with frailty trajectories in those aged 60–69 and 70–79 years. After further adjustment for baseline frailty, the likelihood of being in the high frailty trajectory was greatest among those reporting concerns from relatives/friends about alcohol consumption (OR (95% CI) 2.26 (1.19 to 4.29)) and those with less than a high school education (OR (95% CI) 1.98 (1.32 to 2.96)) in the 60–69 year olds. In the 70–79 year olds, the largest associations were observed among those with concerns from oneself about alcohol consumption (OR (95% CI) 1.92 (1.23 to 3.00)), those with less than a high school education (OR (95% CI) 1.57 (1.12 to 2.22)), and those living with family (vs spouse; OR (95% CI) 1.76 (1.05 to 2.94)). No factors remained associated with frailty trajectories in the 80–89 year olds after adjustment for baseline frailty. Conclusions Social and behavioural factors are associated with frailty, with stronger associations observed in younger ages. Recognition of social and behavioural factors associated with increasing frailty may inform interventions for individuals at risk of worsening frailty, specifically when targeted at younger individuals.