Shi, Qian

TPS3650 Background: A total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) approach improves compliance with chemotherapy and increases rates of tumor response compared to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) alone in those with locally advanced rectal cancer. Recent data indicate that optimal sequencing of TNT involves consolidation (rather than induction) chemotherapy to improve complete response rates. The use of FOLFIRINOX has shown to improve response and outcomes compared to CRT and surgery alone. Data have also shown that patients with clinical complete response (cCR) after TNT may be managed with a watch and wait approach (WW) instead of preemptive total mesorectal resection (TME). However, the optimal consolidation chemotherapy regimen to improve cCR rates has not been established, and a randomized clinical trial has not robustly evaluated cCR as a primary endpoint. We designed this NCI-sponsored study of chemotherapy intensification to address this and to increase cCR rates, provide opportunity for organ preservation, and survival outcomes. Methods: In this multigroup randomized, seamless phase II/III trial (1:1), up to 760 patients with LARC, T4N0, any T with node positive disease (any T, N+) or T3N0 requiring abdominoperineal resection or coloanal anastomosis and distal margin within 12 cm of anal verge will be enrolled. Stratification factors include tumor stage (T4 vs T1-3), nodal stage (N+ vs N0) and distance from anal verge (0–4; 4–8; 8–12 cm). Patients will be randomized to receive neoadjuvant long-course chemoradiation (LCRT) followed by consolidation doublet (mFOLFOX6 or CAPOX (control arm)) or triplet chemotherapy (FOLFIRINOX (experimental arm)) for 3–4 months. LCRT in both arms involve 4500 cGy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks +900 cGy boost in 5 fractions with a fluoropyrimidine. Patients will undergo assessment 8–12 (±4) weeks post-TNT completion. The primary endpoint for the phase II portion will compare cCR between treatment arms. A total number of 312 patients (156 per arm) will provide statistical power of 90.5% to detect a 17% increase in cCR rate, at a one-sided alpha = 0.048. The primary endpoint for the phase III portion will compare disease-free survival (DFS) between arms. A total of 285 DFS events will provide 85% power to detect an effect size of hazard ratio 0.70 at a one-sided alpha of 0.025, requiring enrollment of 760 patients (380 per arm). Secondary objectives include overall survival, organ preservation time, time to distant metastasis, and adverse event rates. This study has accrued 587 patients as of January 2025, and is investigating exploratory correlatives (e.g., ctDNA). Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U24 CA196171. https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org. Clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT05610163. Clinical trial information: NCT05610163 .

3624 Background: Increasing chemotherapy completion and reducing chemotherapy adverse events (AE) are critical to improve survival after colon cancer diagnosis. Sex, as a biological variable, may impact chemotherapy treatment differently, and thus further investigation is needed to examine sex differences in chemotherapy completion and adverse events among patients with colon cancer. Methods: Among an NCI-sponsored trial conducted among patients with stage III colon cancer (CALGB/SWOG 80702), all patients received standard adjuvant chemotherapy FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin). To signal chemotherapy completion, we utilized relative dose intensity (RDI) calculated as the ratio of the delivered dose intensity to planned dose intensity; and reduced RDI (RDI <85%) was considered as a clinically significant deviation from standard FOLFOX. From clinicians’ records of NCI’s Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE), we primarily focused on clinically significant AE such as neutrophils decrease, nausea, platelets decrease, hypertension, peripheral neuropathy, diarrhea, fatigue, gastritis, creatinine increase, gastric ulcer, myocardial ischemia, and cerebral ischemia; and severe AE was defined as the occurrence of any above AE with CTCAE grade ≥3. Using multivariable logistic regression that adjusted for body surface area (BSA) and other clinicopathological confounders, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the associations of sex with reduced RDI and severe AE. Results: Of 2201 patients, mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 60.9 (10.9) years, 1019 (46.3%) were female, 1750 (79.5%) were White, 172 (7.8%) were Hispanic, 964 (43.8%) experienced reduced RDI, and 1156 (52.5%) had severe adverse events. Compared to males, females were at significantly higher risks of experiencing reduced RDI (OR [95% CI]: 1.57 [1.27-1.93], P <0.001) and severe AE (OR [95% CI]: 1.73 [1.41-2.12], P <0.001). Conclusions: Our findings suggested females are more likely than men to experience reduced RDI and severe AE during colon cancer chemotherapy. Clinical Impact: In the era of precision medicine, sex (as a biological variable) should be considered in optimizing colon cancer chemotherapy to improve completion and reduce toxicities. Clinical trial information: NCT01150045 .

e14626 Background: Despite advancements in neoadjuvant therapy and surgical techniques, patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often experience high recurrence rates after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and resection. Existing tumor response scoring systems, such as the College of American Pathologists (CAP) guidelines, fail to stratify recurrence risk effectively, emphasizing the need for novel, objective approaches. Methods: This study evaluated spatial characteristics of residual cancer and stroma in a multi-site cohort of 203 patients with resected PDAC following TNT, not having achieved a major pathologic response (CAP 2 or 3). Whole slide images (WSI) of hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections were digitized and analyzed using artificial intelligence to perform tissue segmentation. Metrics quantifying spatial morphology and configuration, inspired by principles of landscape ecology, were computed to explore spatial features of the tumor microenvironment (TME). Statistical models (recursive partitioning and regression tree [RPRT] model and Cox model with backwards eliminations) incorporating these features were developed to stratify recurrence risk. Results: Five metrics were used for risk classification model build. Three models successfully classified patients into high- and low-risk groups based on spatial metrics. Models demonstrated moderate discriminatory power (C-statistics: 0.560–0.566) and showed that increased tumor fragmentation, like stromal patch density and cancer patch shape index, were strongly associated with improved outcomes. Conclusions: Integrating spatial metrics of cancer-stroma configuration enhances risk stratification beyond conventional scoring systems. Given increased tumor fragmentation is associated with improved outcomes, these data indirectly suggest ecological mechanisms of treatment resistance. This approach offers a pathway toward personalized post-operative management strategies to improve outcomes in PDAC. Risk classification models. Model Description Event/n Median DFS (95% CI) HR(95% CI) p-value C-statistics 1(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 87 / 101 8.22(5.72 – 10.1) 1.64(1.20 – 2.25) 0.002 0.562 Low risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 71 / 102 11.90(9.24 – 25.1) Ref 2(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index ≤ 1.775 58 / 63 7.23(5.19 – 9.63) 1.82(1.31 – 2.52) 0.0003 0.560 Low risk: (log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index > 1.775) or log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 100 / 140 11.57(9.24 – 17.92) Ref 3(Backwards elimination) High risk: PI * > median 86 / 101 8.02(6.08 – 9.86) 1.73(1.26 – 2.37) 0.0007 0.566 Low risk:PI * ≤ median 72 / 102 15.72(9.97 – 25.05) Ref *PI: (0.2701 * log mean stroma area) + (0.3905 * log edge density).

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

Abstract Background Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response have emerged as potential prognostic indicators in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). However, their associations with overall survival, progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival in patients receiving anti–epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies or bevacizumab remain unclear. Methods We analyzed 3219 treatment-naive patients with RAS wild-type metastatic CRC from 8 randomized studies (CRYSTAL, OPUS, PRIME, CAIRO2, CALGB80405, WJOG4407G, ATOM, PARADIGM) in the Aid and Research in Digestive Cancerology database. Early tumor shrinkage was defined as a 20% or more reduction in tumor size at 8 ± 2 weeks, whereas depth of response was assessed by maximum tumor shrinkage at nadir. Cox regression models evaluated the associations of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response with overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival, adjusting for confounders. A 2-sided test was conducted with a significance level of .05. Results Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response substantially stratified overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival outcomes across all treatment groups. Early tumor shrinkage positivity was associated with improved overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival in anti-EGFR and bevacizumab-based therapies, with a trend toward better outcomes in the anti-EGFR group. The depth of response analysis revealed optimal cutoff values of 0.55 for anti-EGFR–based therapy and 0.47 for bevacizumab-based therapy to achieve a median overall survival of approximately 32 months. Conclusions Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response serve as valuable prognostic markers in RAS wild-type metastatic CRC, particularly for patients treated with anti-EGFR antibodies. These findings highlight the potential role of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in guiding treatment strategies and improving outcomes for patients with CRC.

Abstract Background: Tumor-informed circulating tumor (ct) DNA testing is recognized as a powerful predictor of CRC recurrence. However, the benefit of systemic therapy to prevent or delay clinical recurrence in patients (pts) with molecular recurrence after curative surgery remains uncertain. Methods: Pts with CRC who had undergone curative resection of primary and/or metastatic sites + standard of care (SoC) adjuvant treatment, if applicable, were enrolled in ALTAIR study if they (1) prospectively tested positive for ctDNA using a clinically validated, personalized assay (Signatera™, Natera, Inc.) within 3 months before enrollment and (2) had no recurrence on radiological (CT) imaging. Pts were randomized to receive FTD/TPI or placebo for 6 months. CT scans and ctDNA analyses were conducted every 2 months in the first year, every 3 months in the second year, and every 6 months in the third year. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), with secondary endpoints including ctDNA clearance, overall survival (OS), and adverse events. The study assumed a median DFS of 8 months in the placebo group, an HR of 0.667 for the FTD/TPI group, 0.05 significance level, 0.80 power, 2-year enrollment, and 1-year follow-up, requiring 240 pts and 190 DFS events. Baseline ctDNA levels were evaluated by mean tumor molecules (MTM)/ml. Results: Between July 2020 and June 2023, 243 pts were enrolled and randomized to FTD/TPI (n=122) or placebo (n=121). Baseline characteristics were balanced, and 96.3% of pts received SoC treatment postoperatively. FTD/TPI group had a median DFS of 9.30 months vs. 5.55 months in the placebo group, which did not reach statistical significance in the primary population (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.60-1.05; P = 0.107). The benefit was highly pronounced, however, in stage IV pts (HR: 0.53, P = 0.012). In addition, after excluding pts with low ctDNA levels (&lt;0.179 MTM/mL, threshold determined by ROC analysis) from both arms, significant benefit with FTD/TPI was observed in the primary population, resulting in an improved DFS (N=154, HR: 0.61 95% CI: 0.43-0.85; P = 0.003) with a median DFS of 8.12 months for FTD/TPI vs. 3.89 months for placebo; consistent with these findings, a trend toward higher ctDNA clearance rate was observed for the FTD/TPI group (8.33%), compared to placebo (4.05%).OS data remain immature, with 24 events reported across both arms. Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 73.0% of the FTD/TPI arm versus 3.3% in the placebo arm, with no new safety signals. Conclusions: Although statistical significance was not reached in the primary population, FTD/TPI showed benefit in pts with high molecular tumor burden and/ or Stage IV disease, resulting in improved DFS. Citation Format: Hideaki Bando, Jun Watanabe, Masahito Kotaka, Nobuhisa Matsuhashi, Eiji Oki, Yoshito Komatsu, Manabu Shiozawa, Keiji Hirata, Yuji Miyamoto, Kun-Huei Yeh, Shruti Sharma, Vasily Aushev, Adham Jurdi, Minetta C. Liu, Alexey Aleshin, Ichiro Takemasa, Daisuke Kotani, Akihito Sato, Toshihiro Misumi, Yoshiaki Nakamura, Qian Shi, Hiroya Taniguchi, Takeshi Kato, Takayuki Yoshino. A randomized, double-blind, phase III study comparing trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) versus placebo in patients with molecular residual disease following curative resection of colorectal cancer (CRC): The ALTAIR Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_2):Abstract nr CT131.

Observational studies have demonstrated that aspirin and/or PTSG2 inhibitor (e.g., celecoxib) use, before or after colon cancer (CC) diagnosis, is associated with a lower risk of recurrence. However, a randomized trial of adjuvant celecoxib therapy in stage III CC did not show improved survival compared to placebo treatment. We therefore hypothesized that immune microenvironment features may identify patient subgroups with stronger survival benefits from anti-inflammatory celecoxib treatment. Drawing from an NCI-Intergroup trial (Cancer and Leukemia Group B [now Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology]/SWOG 80702) for patients with stage III resected CC that compared 3 versus 6 months of adjuvant fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin ± 3 years of celecoxib, we conducted tissue-based tumor microenvironment profiling on 1,098 resected tumors using a custom 9-plex, T-cell multiplex immunofluorescence assay coupled with digital image analysis and supervised machine learning. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to describe disease-free survival, based on T cell density, and log-rank testing was performed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine unadjusted and adjusted associations between T cell density and disease-free survival (DFS). Two-sided P values ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. We found that higher CD3+ T cell density was associated with longer DFS with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0.91) for patients with densities in the highest tertile as compared the lowest tertile (P=0.01). T cell subset analysis showed that stromal regulatory T helper cells (HR 0.42 comparing highest to lowest tertile, CI 0.31-0.58, P&lt;0.001) and stromal memory cytotoxic T cells (HR 0.55 comparing highest to lowest tertile, CI 0.42-0.74, P&lt;0.001) were most strongly associated with longer DFS. Compared to the placebo group, adjuvant celecoxib use associated with improved DFS for patients with low but not high stromal CD3+ T cell density (adjusted HRs of 0.45 [CI 0.31-0.65] for lowest tertile and 1.13 [CI 0.73-1.74] for highest tertile; Pinteraction=0.01). This association was also seen when the analysis was restricted to microsatellite stable tumors (HR 0.50 [CI 0.32-0.80] for lowest density tertile and 1.50 [CI 0.87-2.59] for highest density tertile; Pinteraction=0.01). T cell subset analysis showed that DFS benefit for celecoxib use most strongly associated with stromal memory helper T cell density (HR 0.38 [CI 0.26-0.56] for lowest density tertile and 1.26 [CI 0.80-1.97] for highest density tertile; Pinteraction&lt;0.001). Together, these results show that while higher T cell infiltration is associated with improved DFS, lower T cell infiltration is associated with improved DFS for patients treated with celecoxib. This unexpected finding may inform immunomodulatory treatment strategies for CC. Citation Format: Yasutoshi Takashima, Chao Ma, Qian Shi, Andressa Dias Costa, Tyler Twombly, Juha P. Väyrynen, Melissa Zhao, Ardaman Shergill, Pankaj Kumar, Felix Couture, Philip Kuebler, Smitha Krishnamurthi, Benjamin Tan, Eileen M. O'Reilly, Anthony F. Shields, Shuji Ogino, Charles S. Fuchs, Jeffrey A. Meyerhardt, Jonathan A. Nowak. Prognostic and predictive role of T cell infiltration in stage III colon cancer (CC) treated with celecoxib: CALGB/SWOG 80702 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 5858.

Abstract Despite advances in surgery and chemotherapy, patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) face high recurrence rates (40-60%). Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) seeks to enhance margin-negative resections (R0) and address micrometastatic disease, with potential survival benefits. Yet, TNT still results in high recurrence rates, with 1-, 2-, and 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) at 65%, 48%, and 32%, respectively. Residual cancer extent is a key prognostic factor in PDAC after TNT. Tumor response scores show favorable outcomes only for patients achieving near-complete or complete pathologic response. In a cohort of 511 PDAC patients treated with TNT and surgery (2015-2022), improved DFS was only found in those with a complete pathologic response (pCR, 7.8%). This highlights the limited use of current response scoring in stratifying post-TNT patient risk, underscoring the need to better understand disease persistence and relapse. Here we developed a quantitative method to assess residual cancer. Using a digital pathology H&E library from 2180 PDAC cases (2000-2022), an AI platform segmented tissue into cancer epithelium, stroma, and normal regions. For 202 TNT-treated cases without pCR, we calculated a ratio of cancer area to stromal area from representative slides. Modeled after the histologic tumor regression grade (HTRG) system, cases were classified into &lt;5%, 5-50%, or &gt;50% cancer-to-stroma ratios. However, this measure alone showed no difference in DFS, suggesting tumor burden cannot fully explain differences in clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that the spatial organization of the tumor microenvironment (TME) is a determinant of patient outcomes. Drawing from landscape ecology, which studies spatial properties of ecosystems, we applied similar principles to analyze tissue architecture. Using an AI-based two-class segmentation of whole-slide images, we assessed spatial features like patch area, perimeter, density, and Shannon diversity. Python’s ‘pylandstats’ package calculated 21 spatial metrics, reduced via stepwise Cox regression using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The final model included mean Shannon diversity, mean and standard deviation of stromal patch areas, and stromal patch density. Kaplan-Meier analysis of 202 samples stratified model predictions into quartiles, correlating with high (mean DFS 10.85 months), medium (19.32 months), and low risk (25.92 months) groups. These findings aligned with model expectations, underscoring the potential of spatial TME analysis to predict outcomes. Citation Format: Andrea V. Maraone, Zafar Siddiqui, Luis H. Cisneros, Merih D. Toruner, Mark Truty, Cornelius Thiels, Robert R. McWilliams, Steven R. Alberts, Rondell P. Graham, Carlo Maley, Qian Shi, Martin E. Fernandez-Zapico, Ryan M. Carr. Tumor spatial configuration predicts pancreatic cancer recurrence risk after total neoadjuvant therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 5070.

Abstract Background The treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer now includes “watch-and-wait” (WW) management for patients who exhibit a clinical complete response (cCR) to total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT). We assessed patients’ knowledge and preferences regarding WW with the goal of incorporating patient input into clinical trial design. Methods Rectal cancer patients in advocacy groups (COLONTOWN/Rectalburgh and Fight CRC) were surveyed regarding perceptions about treatment strategies, tolerable risks of treatment failure, and preferences on clinical trial design. Surveys were initially distributed in 2019, with the shift toward WW prompting re-survey of select questions in 2023. Results All respondents preferred enrollment in trials that incorporated patient input. Most respondents (76%) preferred treatment that incorporated chemotherapy escalation over radiation escalation. Furthermore, when presented with a hypothetical patient who developed a cCR after chemoradiation (without the option for WW), 58% of patients chose surgical treatment (with 100% risk of permanent ostomy and 80% chance of cure) over omission of surgery (with &lt;80% chance of cure). In contrast, when the hypothetical patient developed a cCR after TNT (with an option for WW), 82% of patients opted for selective WW over surgery. Conclusions This work successfully integrated patient advocacy groups as a resource for obtaining patient input. Surveys revealed patients had a strong preference for chemotherapy escalation, for selective WW when offered, and for incorporation of input into future clinical trial design. These findings describe how well-informed patients approach complex medical decision-making and serve as a starting point for future studies seeking to incorporate patient voices.

Background: Rates of early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC), defined as disease diagnosed at <50 years of age, are increasing. The incidence and spectrum of somatic and pathogenic germline variants (PGV) in this population are not well understood. Methods: This cross-sectional study leveraged Tempus’ clinicogenomic database, including de-identified records of patients diagnosed with CRC between 2000–2022, to analyze and compare eoCRC and average-onset colorectal cancer (aoCRC, disease diagnosed ≥50 years of age) patients. The frequency and spectrum of somatic mutations and PGVs in patients with eoCRC and aoCRC were evaluated and compared. Results: Among 11,006 participants in this study, 57% were male, 76% were white, and 80% had stage 4 disease. Within the total cohort, 2379 had eoCRC and 8627 had aoCRC. Among patients with eoCRC, 4.2% had a tumor with high microsatellite instability and/or deficient mismatch repair (MSI-H/dMMR) and 6.8% with aoCRC had an MSI-H/dMMR tumor (p < 0.001). The most frequent somatic mutations involved TP53, APC, and KRAS, with the most significant difference in BRAF, which was more frequently mutated in aoCRC (9.8% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.0001). In total, 1413 (59.4%) eoCRC and 4898 (56.8%) aoCRC patients had matched normal specimen (blood or saliva) sequencing and a PGV was identified in 6.9% of eoCRC and 5.0% of aoCRC patients. Conclusions: Somatic and germline mutation profiles were similar for eoCRC and aoCRC patients and may not adequately explain differences in tumor behavior and age of disease onset.