Lieu, Christopher H.

Abstract Background Surrogate endpoints are increasingly used as the basis of cancer drug approvals. A strong association between treatment effects on the surrogate and true endpoint is essential for their validation as reliable endpoints. We assess the current evidence of trial-level surrogacy for colorectal cancer (CRC) endpoints through a novel framework. Methods We developed a framework to grade the quality of oncology surrogate endpoints in 7 domains of the surrogate relationship: data source quality (A-B); disease setting homogeneity (0-3); uniformness of surrogate and true endpoint definitions (0-3); number of trials evaluated (0-4); and individual- (0-2) and trial-level associations (0-8). We screened PubMed using keywords and medical subject headings terms for meta-analyses published before July 6, 2024, validating surrogate endpoint associations across CRC trials. Two reviewers blindly assessed each article before reaching a consensus score. The main outcomes were framework-derived evidence scores and reported trial-level associations (R2) with overall survival. Results A total of 18 articles were identified, containing 39 evaluations of 12 unique surrogate endpoints for overall survival. Evidence scores ranged from B6 to A23. Only disease-free survival consistently demonstrated high-quality evidence of trial-level surrogacy (≥A18, median R2 = 0.92). Progression-free survival and objective response rate were low-quality surrogates in metastatic CRC (progression-free survival: B6-A15, median R2 = 0.55; objective response rate: B6-A13, median R2 = 0.33). Other evaluated endpoints were demonstrated to be unreliable surrogates. Conclusion Disease-free survival shows high-quality surrogacy in stage II-III colon cancer. Endpoints identified in the metastatic setting demonstrate inconsistent surrogacy evidence. Reassessment and identification of new endpoints are warranted, particularly with immunotherapy.

TPS256 Background: Currently, there are no biomarkers validated prospectively in randomized studies for resected colon cancer (CC) to determine need for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). However, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) represents a highly specific and sensitive approach (especially with serial monitoring) for identifying minimal/molecular residual disease (MRD) post-surgery in CC patients (pts), and may outperform traditional clinical and pathological features in prognosticating risk for recurrence. CC pts who do not have detectable ctDNA (ctDNA-) are at a much lower risk of recurrence and may be spared the toxicities associated with AC. Furthermore, for CC pts with detectable ctDNA (ctDNA+) who are at a very high risk of recurrence, the optimal AC regimen has not been established. We hypothesize that for pts whose CC has been resected, ctDNA status may be used to risk-stratify for making decisions about AC. Methods: In this prospective phase II/III trial, up to 1,912 pts with resected stage IIB, IIC, and III CC will be enrolled. Based on the post-operative ctDNA status using personalized and tumor-informed assay (Signatera, bespoke assay), those who are ctDNA- (Cohort A) will be randomized to immediate AC with fluoropyrimidine (FP)+oxaliplatin (Ox) for 3-6 mos per established guidelines v serial ctDNA monitoring. Patients who are ctDNA+ post-operatively, or with serial monitoring (Cohort B), will be randomized to FP+Ox v more intensive AC with addition of irinotecan (I) for 6 mos. One cycle of chemotherapy is allowed while awaiting ctDNA testing results for cohort assignment. The primary endpoints for Cohort A are time to ctDNA+ status (phase II) and disease-free survival (DFS) (phase III) in the immediate v delayed AC arms. The primary endpoint for Cohort B is DFS in the FP+Ox v FP+Ox+I arms for both phase II and phase III portions of the trial. Secondary endpoints include prevalence of detectable ctDNA post-operatively, time-to-event outcomes (overall survival and time to recurrence) by ctDNA status, and the assessment of compliance to adjuvant therapy. Biospecimens including archival tumor tissue, as well as post-operative plus serial matched/normal blood samples, will be collected for exploratory correlative research. Active enrollment across the NCTN started in June 2022 with CCTG sites joining in August 2023. Current accrual (as of 9-4-2025): 967/1,912. Drs. Lieu and Dasari contributed equally to the development of this trial. Clinical trial information: NCT05174169 .

PURPOSE Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality have decreased since the 1970s, but the incidence in young adults (<50 years, named early-onset CRC [eoCRC]) has been increasing. PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data on 13,365 patients with metastatic CRC enrolled between 2000 and 2012 in 17 first-line randomized trials in the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive database were pooled. The distribution of demographics, clinicopathologic features, biomarkers, and outcome data were summarized and compared by age groups. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models stratified by treatment arms within studies, adjusting for potential confounders. Predictive value of age group on clinical outcomes was evaluated by testing interaction effect between treatment and age variables. RESULTS Overall, 2,045 patients with eoCRC (median age, 42.5) and 11,320 patients with average-onset CRC (aoCRC; median age, 63.8) were included in this analysis. Within the eoCRC population, treatment with bevacizumab in addition to chemotherapy improved PFS (9.9 v 6.8 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.66 [95% CI, 0.54 to 0.80]; P < .0001), which was similar to the findings in aoCRC population (9.4 v 7.3 months; HR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80]; P < .001; interaction P = .5415). However, epithelial growth factor receptor inhibitor (EGFRi) did not improve PFS in RAS wild-type (WT) patients with eoCRC who had left-sided primary tumors (8.3 v 8.9 months; HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 0.81 to 1.77]; P = .36), whereas EGFRi significantly improved PFS in the aoCRC population (9.9 v 8.5 months; HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.86]; P < .0001; interaction P = .083). CONCLUSION Treatment-naïve patients with metastatic eoCRC appear to derive similar benefit from bevacizumab as patients with aoCRC. However, patients with eoCRC with left-sided RAS/RAF WT tumors did not appear to derive benefit from first-line EGFRi.

LBA1 Background: Standard adjuvant chemotherapy of stage III colon cancer consists of a fluoropyrimidine plus oxaliplatin. In patients (pts) with stage III colon cancer and deficient mismatch repair (dMMR), the benefit of an immune checkpoint inhibitor combined with adjuvant chemotherapy is unknown. The phase III ATOMIC trial (NCT02912559) was conducted to determine whether atezolizumab (atezo), an anti-PD-L1 antibody, can improve pt outcomes when added to adjuvant 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin plus oxaliplatin (mFOLFOX6) in pts with stage III dMMR tumors. Methods: We conducted an NCI-sponsored, multicenter and randomized phase III trial in pts with surgically resected stage III dMMR colon adenocarcinoma (any T, N 1,2 M 0 ). Pts, age > 12 years (yr), were accrued at NCTN sites and the German AIO. Tumor dMMR was determined by local immunohistochemistry and centrally verified. Pts were randomized 1:1 to mFOLFOX6 plus atezo (840 mg IV q2 weeks) for 12 cycles (6 months)[mo] followed by atezo monotherapy for 13 cycles (12 mo total) versus mFOLFOX6 alone for 12 cycles. Randomization stratification factors were N-stage (N 1 /N 1c vs N 2 ), T-stage (T 1 -T 3 vs T 4 ) and site (proximal vs distal). The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS); secondary endpoints were overall survival and adverse event (AE) profile (CTCAE, PRO-CTCAE). Primary efficacy analysis was done in the intent-to-treat population; DFS was compared by arm (stratified log-rank test). Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a stratified Cox model; 3-yr DFS was determined by Kaplan-Meier method. Among 700 pts., 165 DFS events with two interim analyses (50% , 75% of events) yielded 90% power to detect HR 0.6 (3-yr DFS 75% vs. 84.2%) assuming exponential survival and 1-sided alpha (0.025). Results: From 9/2017 to 1/2023, 712 pts were randomized (1 pediatric) to either atezo plus mFOLFOX6 (n= 355; atezo arm) or mFOLFOX6 (n= 357). Median pt age was 64 yr. 55.1% were female. Among tumors, 83.8% were proximal, 46.1% were clinical low risk (T 1-3 N 1 ) and 53.9% high risk (T 4 and/or N 2 ). At the second interim analysis, median pt follow-up was 37.2 mo (interquartile range, 24.2 to 55.5) and 124 DFS events were observed. Three-year DFS was 86.4 % (95% CI, 81.8 to 89.9) in the atezo arm and 76.6 % (95% CI, 71.3 to 81.0) in the mFOLFOX6 arm (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.72). Stratified log-rank p-value was <0.0001, crossing the pre-specified efficacy boundary of 0.009. Efficacy for the atezo arm was consistent across subgroups, including pts >70 yr and low- and high-risk groups. Treatment-related > grade 3 AEs occurred in 71.7 % of pts in the atezo arm vs 62.1 % in the mFOLFOX6 arm. Conclusion: The addition of atezolizumab to mFOLFOX6 significantly improved DFS and should be considered the new adjuvant standard of care for patients with dMMR stage III colon cancer. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U24CA196171; Genentech, a member of the Roche group; https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org. Clinical trial information: NCT02912559 .

TPS3644 Background: Currently, there are no biomarkers validated prospectively in randomized studies for resected colon cancer (CC) to determine need for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). However, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) represents a highly specific and sensitive approach (especially with serial monitoring) for identifying minimal/molecular residual disease (MRD) post-surgery in CC patients (pts), and may outperform traditional clinical and pathological features in prognosticating risk for recurrence. CC pts who do not have detectable ctDNA (ctDNA-) are at a much lower risk of recurrence and may be spared the toxicities associated with AC. Furthermore, for CC pts with detectable ctDNA (ctDNA+) who are at a very high risk of recurrence, the optimal AC regimen has not been established. We hypothesize that for pts whose CC has been resected, ctDNA status may be used to risk-stratify for making decisions about AC. Methods: In this prospective phase II/III trial, up to 1,912 pts with resected stage IIB, IIC, and III CC will be enrolled. Based on the post-operative ctDNA status using personalized and tumor-informed assay (Signatera™, bespoke assay), those who are ctDNA- (Cohort A) will be randomized to immediate AC with fluoropyrimidine (FP)+oxaliplatin (Ox) for 3-6 mos per established guidelines v serial ctDNA monitoring. Patients who are ctDNA+ post-operatively, or with serial monitoring (Cohort B), will be randomized to FP+Ox v more intensive AC with addition of irinotecan (I) for 6 mos. One cycle of chemotherapy is allowed while awaiting ctDNA testing results for cohort assignment. The primary endpoints for Cohort A are time to ctDNA+ status (phase II) and disease-free survival (DFS) (phase III) in the immediate v delayed AC arms. The primary endpoint for Cohort B is DFS in the FP+Ox v FP+Ox+I arms for both phase II and phase III portions of the trial. Secondary endpoints include prevalence of detectable ctDNA post-operatively, time-to-event outcomes (overall survival and time to recurrence) by ctDNA status, and the assessment of compliance to adjuvant therapy. Biospecimens including archival tumor tissue, as well as post-operative plus serial matched/normal blood samples, will be collected for exploratory correlative research. Active enrollment across the NCTN started in June 2022 with CCTG sites joining in August 2023. Current accrual (as of 1-27-2025): 647/1,912. NCT: 05174169. Support: U10 CA180868, -180822; -180888; UG1 CA189867; Natera, Inc. Clinical trial information: NCT05174169 .

Background: Rates of early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC), defined as disease diagnosed at <50 years of age, are increasing. The incidence and spectrum of somatic and pathogenic germline variants (PGV) in this population are not well understood. Methods: This cross-sectional study leveraged Tempus’ clinicogenomic database, including de-identified records of patients diagnosed with CRC between 2000–2022, to analyze and compare eoCRC and average-onset colorectal cancer (aoCRC, disease diagnosed ≥50 years of age) patients. The frequency and spectrum of somatic mutations and PGVs in patients with eoCRC and aoCRC were evaluated and compared. Results: Among 11,006 participants in this study, 57% were male, 76% were white, and 80% had stage 4 disease. Within the total cohort, 2379 had eoCRC and 8627 had aoCRC. Among patients with eoCRC, 4.2% had a tumor with high microsatellite instability and/or deficient mismatch repair (MSI-H/dMMR) and 6.8% with aoCRC had an MSI-H/dMMR tumor (p < 0.001). The most frequent somatic mutations involved TP53, APC, and KRAS, with the most significant difference in BRAF, which was more frequently mutated in aoCRC (9.8% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.0001). In total, 1413 (59.4%) eoCRC and 4898 (56.8%) aoCRC patients had matched normal specimen (blood or saliva) sequencing and a PGV was identified in 6.9% of eoCRC and 5.0% of aoCRC patients. Conclusions: Somatic and germline mutation profiles were similar for eoCRC and aoCRC patients and may not adequately explain differences in tumor behavior and age of disease onset.

TPS310 Background: Currently, there are no biomarkers validated prospectively in randomized studies for resected colon cancer (CC) to determine need for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). However, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) represents a highly specific and sensitive approach (especially with serial monitoring) for identifying minimal/molecular residual disease (MRD) post-surgery in CC patients (pts), and may outperform traditional clinical and pathological features in prognosticating risk for recurrence. CC pts who do not have detectable ctDNA (ctDNA-) are at a much lower risk of recurrence and may be spared the toxicities associated with AC. Furthermore, for CC pts with detectable ctDNA (ctDNA+) who are at a very high risk of recurrence, the optimal AC regimen has not been established. We hypothesize that for pts whose CC has been resected, ctDNA status may be used to risk-stratify for making decisions about AC. Methods: In this prospective phase II/III trial, up to 1,912 pts with resected stage IIB, IIC, and III CC will be enrolled. Based on the post-operative ctDNA status using personalized and tumor-informed assay (Signatera, bespoke assay), those who are ctDNA- (Cohort A) will be randomized to immediate AC with fluoropyrimidine (FP)+oxaliplatin (Ox) for 3-6 mos per established guidelines v serial ctDNA monitoring. Patients who are ctDNA+ post-operatively, or with serial monitoring (Cohort B), will be randomized to FP+Ox v more intensive AC with addition of irinotecan (I) for 6 mos. One cycle of chemotherapy is allowed while awaiting ctDNA testing results for cohort assignment. The primary endpoints for Cohort A are time to ctDNA+ status (phase II) and disease-free survival (DFS) (phase III) in the immediate v delayed AC arms. The primary endpoint for Cohort B is DFS in the FP+Ox v FP+Ox+I arms for both phase II and phase III portions of the trial. Secondary endpoints include prevalence of detectable ctDNA post-operatively, time-to-event outcomes (overall survival and time to recurrence) by ctDNA status, and the assessment of compliance to adjuvant therapy. Biospecimens including archival tumor tissue, as well as post-operative plus serial matched/normal blood samples, will be collected for exploratory correlative research. Active enrollment across the NCTN started in June 2022 with CCTG sites joining in August 2023. Current accrual (as of 9-20-2024): 500/1,912. Clinical trial information: NCT05174169 .

TPS3641 Background: Currently, there are no biomarkers validated prospectively in randomized studies for resected colon cancer (CC) to determine need for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). However, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) represents a highly specific and sensitive approach (especially with serial monitoring) for identifying minimal/molecular residual disease (MRD) post-surgery in CC patients (pts), and may outperform traditional clinical and pathological features in prognosticating risk for recurrence. CC pts who do not have detectable ctDNA (ctDNA-) are at a much lower risk of recurrence and may be spared the toxicities associated with AC. Furthermore, for CC pts with detectable ctDNA (ctDNA+) who are at a very high risk of recurrence, the optimal AC regimen has not been established. We hypothesize that for pts whose CC has been resected, ctDNA status may be used to risk-stratify for making decisions about AC. Methods: In this prospective phase II/III trial, up to 1,912 pts with resected stage IIB, IIC, and III CC will be enrolled. Based on the post-operative ctDNA status using personalized and tumor-informed assay (Signatera, bespoke assay), those who are ctDNA- (Cohort A) will be randomized to immediate AC with fluoropyrimidine (FP)+oxaliplatin (Ox) for 3-6 mos per established guidelines vserial ctDNA monitoring. Patients who are ctDNA+ post-operatively, or with serial monitoring (Cohort B), will be randomized to FP+Ox v more intensive AC with addition of irinotecan (I) for 6 mos. One cycle of chemotherapy is allowed while awaiting ctDNA testing results for cohort assignment. The primary endpoints for Cohort A are time to ctDNA+ status (phase II) and disease-free survival (DFS) (phase III) in the immediate v delayed AC arms. The primary endpoint for Cohort B is DFS in the FP+Ox v FP+Ox+I arms for both phase II and phase III portions of the trial. Secondary endpoints include prevalence of detectable ctDNA post-operatively, time-to-event outcomes (overall survival and time to recurrence) by ctDNA status, and the assessment of compliance to adjuvant therapy. Biospecimens including archival tumor tissue, as well as post-operative plus serial matched/normal blood samples, will be collected for exploratory correlative research. Active enrollment across the NCTN started in June 2022 with CCTG sites joining in August 2023. Current accrual (as of 02-02-2024) is 240/1,912. NCT05174169. Support: U10-CA-180868, -180822; UG1CA-189867; Natera, Inc. Clinical trial information: NCT05174169 .