Citations

e18584 Background: Cancer progression rates following diagnosis are readily measured. However, the progression rate of cancer during the preclinical sojourn time is generally unobserved. Understanding the duration of preclinical stages (“dwell time”) would allow clinicians to better identify appropriate screening intervals for cancer. We therefore elicited estimates of progression rate during the preclinical sojourn time for a wide variety of malignancies from a panel of clinical experts. Methods: We used a validated consensus methodology (RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel method) to elicit per-stage dwell time estimates for 20 solid cancers and lymphoma from experts. Eleven experienced oncologists (general and subspecialists) from community and academic centers reviewed literature on the natural history of disease and estimated in number of years (<1 to 9+ years) how long it would take each cancer to progress from the beginning of clinically detectable Stage I/II/III to the beginning of the next stage in untreated adults. Cancer histological subtypes were grouped and experts were asked to provide an overall rating. Ratings were completed before and after a discussion of areas of disagreement. Results: Expert estimates and range of dwell time for 21 cancer types are provided in Table. Prostate and thyroid cancer were estimated to be the slowest growing, taking approximately 7 and 5 years respectively to progress through Stage I (range 4-8), 5 years to progress through Stage II (range 3-7), and 3 and 4 (range 2-5) years respectively to progress through Stage III. Esophageal, lung, liver/intrahepatic bile-duct, gallbladder, and pancreatic cancers were estimated to progress quickly through all three stages (1-2 years per stage). Conclusions: These findings summarize practicing oncologists’ estimates of dwell time in preclinical disease. Experts agreed on dwell times although ranges were large and differences in cancer subtypes were not captured. Generally, estimates trend with published data on survival with treatment: cancers with higher survival (e.g., prostate, thyroid) were estimated to grow slower, while cancers with lower survival (e.g., pancreatic, liver/intrahepatic bile-duct, gallbladder) were estimated to grow faster. These estimates could be useful when determining screening intervals for these or any subset of these cancers. [Table: see text]

1561 Background: Surgical interventions are studied less often than medical or radiation interventions in oncology clinical trials. We characterized surgical oncology trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, analyzed funding sources and identified features associated with early discontinuation and results reporting. Methods: We employed a cross-sectional study design with descriptive, logistic regression, cox regression, time series and survival analyses. We downloaded all 270,172 studies registered on the Aggregate Analysis of the ClinicalTrials.gov database from October 1, 2008 to March 9, 2020. After excluding non-interventional trials, applying cancer/oncology specific Medical Subject Heading terms to the remaining trials and excluding phase 1 trials, 27,915 trials were identified for manual review. Primary exposure variables were trial focus: neoplasia site and treatment modality (surgical interventions included investigations of outcomes from surgical resection or intra-operative/peri-operative changes), and funding: industry, U.S. government, academic. Results: 26,815 trials were found to have true oncology content; 1,661 (6.2%) involved surgical oncology, representing 311,789 patients. Funding sources were: 82.7% by academic institutions, 10.9% by industry, and 6.2% by U.S. government. The most studied neoplasia sites were colorectal (17.4% of trials), breast (10.7%), gastric (10.5%), hepatic (8.6%), lung (7.5%), brain/CNS (6.7%) and cervical (6.6%). U.S. government funded surgical oncology trials had the lowest risk of early discontinuation (adjusted HR 0.50, 95% CI: 0.26-0.99, p<0.047) and the highest odds of results reporting (adjusted OR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.55-2.11, p=0.83) (Table 1). Conclusions: There is a paucity of surgical oncology clinical trials compared to other treatment modalities, especially in context of surgery’s role in overall cancer care. From 2008-2020 only 6.2% of trials focused on surgical oncology, and U.S. government funded trials displayed the lowest hazard of early discontinuation and highest odds of results reporting. Stakeholders should look to government funded trials as models of improvement, but must increase representation and results dissemination of surgical oncology trials to guide treatment recommendations. Surgical oncology trial features and associated early discontinuation/results reporting. [Table: see text]

Purpose To compare the dosimetric performances of small‐spot three‐dimensional (3D) and four‐dimensional (4D) robustly optimized intensity‐modulated proton (IMPT) plans in the presence of uncertainties and interplay effect simultaneously for distal esophageal carcinoma. Method and Materials Thirteen (13) patients were selected and re‐planned with small‐spot ( ~ 2–6 mm) 3D and 4D robust optimization in IMPT, respectively. The internal clinical target volumes (CTV high3d , CTV low3d ) were used in 3D robust optimization. Different CTVs (CTV high4d , CTV low4d ) were generated by subtracting an inner margin of the motion amplitudes in three cardinal directions from the internal CTVs and used in 4D robust optimization. All patients were prescribed the same dose to CTVs (50 Gy[RBE] for CTV high3d /CTV high4d and 45 Gy[RBE] for CTV low3d /CTV low4d ). Dose–volume histogram (DVH) indices were calculated to assess plan quality. Comprehensive plan robustness evaluations that consisted of 300 perturbed scenarios (10 different motion patterns to consider irregular motion (sampled from a Gaussian distribution) and 30 different uncertainties scenarios (sampled from a 4D uniform distribution) combined), were performed to quantify robustness to uncertainties and interplay effect simultaneously. Wilcoxon signed‐rank test was used for statistical analysis. Results Compared to 3D robustly optimized plans, 4D robustly optimized plans had statistically improved target coverage and better sparing of lungs and heart (heart D mean , P = 0.001; heart V 30Gy[RBE] , P = 0.001) in the nominal scenario. 4D robustly optimized plans had better robustness in target dose coverage (CTV high4d V 100% , P = 0.002) and the protection of lungs and heart (heart D mean , P = 0.001; heart V 30Gy[RBE] , P = 0.001) when uncertainties and interplay effect were considered simultaneously. Conclusions Even with small spots in IMPT, 4D robust optimization outperformed 3D robust optimization in terms of normal tissue protection and robustness to uncertainties and interplay effect simultaneously. Our findings support the use of 4D robust optimization to treat distal esophageal carcinoma with small spots in IMPT.

Purpose The purpose of this review is to perform a meta‐analysis of studies reporting meniscus repair outcomes. Pooled analyses of such studies will provide an accurate estimate of the outcomes that can be expected following meniscal repair at various postoperative time points. Methods A meta‐analysis of meniscal repair failure (defined as persistent symptoms, lack of healing on magnetic resonance imaging or revision surgery) and other clinical outcomes was performed following meniscal repair. Patients included had traumatic, nondegenerative meniscal tears, were skeletally mature, and had specific time‐points after surgery. Repairs included were performed either in isolation, or with concomitant ACL reconstruction. Because of the inherent heterogeneity of single‐arm meta‐analyses, pooled analyses were performed using a random‐effects model. Results Rates of all‐cause meniscal repair failure was pooled to be 12% at 0‐1 years (95% CI: .09‐.16), 15% at 2‐3 years (95% CI: .11‐.20), and 19% at 4‐6 years (95% CI: .13‐.24). Sensitivity analysis for studies performing meniscal repair entirely on patients with concomitant ACL reconstruction (ACLR) showed comparable rates of failure at similar time intervals. Development of osteoarthritis, in patients with knees previously free from articular pathologies, was 4% at 2‐3 years (95% CI: .02‐.07), and 10% at 4‐6 years (95% CI: .03‐.25). Conclusion Meniscus repair for traumatic injuries have an all‐cause failure rate that increases from 12% to 19% through a time period ranging from 1‐6 years following surgery. The failure rates were comparable for patients with meniscal repairs performed with concomitant ACLRs. Level of Evidence IV; Systematic Review of Level II‐IV Studies.

Background: Periodontal disease (PD) is associated positively with neurocognitive outcomes. Few studies have investigated the relationship between PD and indicators of brain aging and vascular changes. Hypothesis: PD is associated with greater cerebral small vessel disease, lower total and regional brain volumes and elevated β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition. Methods: We included 6,793 participants who received full-mouth periodontal examinations and tooth counts at Visit 4 (1996-1998) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We used a modified 3-level version of the Periodontal Profile Class to categorize PD based on severity and extent of gingival inflammation and tissue loss. Among participants who attended Visit 5 (2011-2013), n=1,306 received a brain MRI and n=248 received a PET scan. Total brain volume, Alzheimer’s disease signature volume, and presence of microhemorrhages and cerebral infarctions were ascertained via 3T MRI; Aβ deposition was assessed from PET. We regressed brain volumes on baseline PD status using weighted multivariable linear regression. Presence of cerebrovascular microhemorrhages, infarctions, or elevated Aβ (standardized uptake value ratio>1.2) were regressed on PD category using logistic models. We examined the interaction between Apolipoprotein E ε4 ( APOE ) allele possession and PD categories on the Aβ outcome. Results: Prevalence of baseline periodontal disease was 73% (959/1306) and 87% (206/248) among the MRI and PET subgroups, respectively. PD was not associated with volumetric brain measures nor microhemorrhages. PD was inversely associated with the odds of subcortical and lacunar infarctions. PD and Aβ were not associated in main effect or interaction analyses, although there was a notably stronger association among carriers of APOE . Conclusion: PD was not associated with altered brain structure, cerebral microhemorrhages or elevated Aβ deposition. Counter to the hypothesis, PD and complete tooth loss were inversely associated with cerebral infarctions.

Introduction: Studies have found that smaller brain volumes, cerebral infarcts, and white matter abnormalities are associated with dementia and mild cognitive impairment. However, these studies have been limited by short follow-up precluding a strong establishment of temporality. Therefore, it is unknown whether brain imaging findings are preceded by long-term changes in cognition. We sought to address this gap by examining brain imaging and two decades of cognitive changes in and a large, representative population-based cohort of older adults of black and white race. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that 22-year declines in global cognitive factor scores (GCFS) would be associated with a pattern of smaller total brain and temporal lobe meta region of interest (likely to be affected by Alzheimer’s disease) volumes, larger white matter hyperintensity volumes, and greater odds of ≥1 lacunar infarct and elevated brain β-amyloid deposition. Methods: ARIC participants with brain imaging data, complete cognitive factor score, and not missing key covariates were included. GCFS were collected at three visits across 22 years (1990-2013), and brain MRI and florbetapir PET imaging were collected in 2011-13; PET in subset of n=327. Mixed effects models with random intercepts and slopes predicted individual change in GCFS. Outcomes of interest were total brain volume (cc), temporal lobe meta region volume, log 2 (white matter hyperintensity volume), ≥1 lacunar infarct, and elevated brain β-amyloid deposition (SUVR >1.2). Multivariable linear and logistic regression was used to relate outcomes to GCFS slopes after adjusting for confounders, including vascular risk factors. As appropriate, models were also adjusted for total intracranial volume. Results: Among 1957 with complete brain MRI imaging, 1830 were included in the study, 60% (n=1096) women and 26% (n=480) black. At the first visit, the mean (SD) baseline age was 55 (5.2) yrs. The mean (SD) observed GCFS at the three visits were 0.16 (0.79), 0.05 (0.75), and -0.78 (0.86). After adjustment, a 1-SD larger decline in GCFS was significantly associated with a smaller brain volume by 1.6% [95%CI: 1.3, 1.8] relative to mean brain volume, a smaller temporal lobe meta region volume by 2.4% [2.1, 2.8] relative to the mean volume, a 15% [11, 19] larger volume of white matter hyperintensities, 1.3-fold [1.2, 1.4] higher odds of having ≥1 lacune, and 1.8-fold [1.4, 2.4] higher odds of elevated brain β-amyloid deposition. Associations remained significant after further adjustment for first or last GCFS. Conclusions: Greater declines in long-term cognitive functioning were significantly associated with smaller brain volumes and dementia-related brain characteristics and were independent of last visit GCFS. This suggests long-term changes in cognition may precede late-life brain morphology and outperform cross-sectional cognitive measures.

Abstract Patients requiring chronic transfusion support are at risk of alloimmunization after red blood cell (RBC) transfusion because of a disparity between donor and recipient antigen profiles. This research explored the probability of obtaining an exact extended phenotype match between blood donors randomly selected from our institution and patients randomly selected from particular ethnic groups. Blood samples from 1,000 blood donors tested by molecular method were evaluated for the predicted phenotype distribution of Rh, Kell, Kidd, Duffy, and MNS. A random subsample of 800 donor phenotypes was then evaluated for the probability of obtaining an exact match with respect to phenotype with a randomly selected patient from a particular ethnic group. Overall, there was a greater than 80 percent probability of finding an exact donor-recipient match for the K/k alleles in the Kell system. The probability ranged from 3 percent to 38 percent, depending on the ethnicity and disparities in phenotypic profiles, for the Rh, Kidd, Duffy, and MNS systems. A significant donor-recipient phenotype mismatch ratio exists with certain blood group antigens such that, with current routine ABO and D matching practices, recipients of certain ethnic groups are predisposed to alloimmunization. Immunohematology 2011; 27:12–19.

Background and Aims Acute kidney injury (AKI) has a poor prognosis in cirrhosis. Given the variability of creatinine, the prediction of AKI and dialysis by other markers is needed. The aim of this study is to determine the role of serum and urine metabolomics in the prediction of AKI and dialysis in an inpatient cirrhosis cohort. Approach and Results Inpatients with cirrhosis from 11 North American Consortium of End‐stage Liver Disease centers who provided admission serum/urine when they were AKI and dialysis‐free were included. Analysis of covariance adjusted for demographics, infection, and cirrhosis severity was performed to identify metabolites that differed among patients (1) who developed AKI or not; (2) required dialysis or not; and/pr (3) within AKI subgroups who needed dialysis or not. We performed random forest and AUC analyses to identify specific metabolite(s) associated with outcomes. Logistic regression with clinical variables with/without metabolites was performed. A total of 602 patients gave serum (218 developed AKI, 80 needed dialysis) and 435 gave urine (164 developed AKI, 61 needed dialysis). For AKI prediction, clinical factor–adjusted AUC was 0.91 for serum and 0.88 for urine. Major metabolites such as uremic toxins (2,3‐dihydroxy‐5‐methylthio‐4‐pentenoic acid [DMTPA], N2N2dimethylguanosine, uridine/pseudouridine) and tryptophan/tyrosine metabolites (kynunerate, 8‐methoxykyunerate, quinolinate) were higher in patients who developed AKI. For dialysis prediction, clinical factor–adjusted AUC was 0.93 for serum and 0.91 for urine. Similar metabolites as AKI were altered here. For dialysis prediction in those with AKI, the AUC was 0.81 and 0.79 for serum/urine. Lower branched‐chain amino‐acid (BCAA) metabolites but higher cysteine, tryptophan, glutamate, and DMTPA were seen in patients with AKI needing dialysis. Serum/urine metabolites were additive to clinical variables for all outcomes. Conclusions Specific admission urinary and serum metabolites were significantly additive to clinical variables to predict AKI development and dialysis initiation in inpatients with cirrhosis. These observations can potentially facilitate earlier initiation of renoprotective measures.