Wong, Florence

ABSTRACT Background and Aims It remains unclear whether different factors influence 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates. We identified predictors of 90‐day mortality in a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis. Methods Variables associated with 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge readmission, liver transplantation (LT), and mortality were compared in prospectively enrolled, non‐electively hospitalised adult patients with cirrhosis. Results We enrolled 4208 patients from 125 centres across 37 countries. Alcohol‐related liver disease was the most common aetiology of cirrhosis (40%), followed by hepatitis B virus infection (21%); 47% were readmitted, 8% received liver transplantation (LT), and 23% died within 90 days post‐discharge. In multivariable analysis, country income was significantly associated with both 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates, the receipt of LT, and mortality within 30 and 90 days post‐discharge (all p ‐values < 0.001). Independent predictors of higher rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmissions, respectively, were disease severity ( p < 0.001, p = 0.003), prior ascites ( p = 0.025, p = 0.016), prior hospitalisation ( p < 0.001), hyponatremia ( p < 0.001, p = 0.008), and in‐hospital vasopressor use ( p = 0.002, p = 0.011). Prior variceal bleeding independently predicted higher 90‐day readmission rates, whereas age, disease severity, mechanical ventilation, and in‐hospital vasopressor use (all, p < 0.001) increased odds of 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge death. Additionally, admission ( p = 0.011) and nosocomial ( p = 0.022) infections increased the odds of 90‐day post‐discharge death. Conclusion In a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis, patients in high‐income countries exhibited the highest rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmission, alongside lower mortality rates and a higher incidence of LT. Variables that predict 30‐day readmission also predicted 90‐day readmission. Understanding these disparities is essential for achieving health equity.

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.

INTRODUCTION: The alfapump system has been shown to be a possible alternative to repeat therapeutic paracentesis (TP) in selected patients with refractory ascites (RA). The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of alfapump on ascites control and quality of life in these patients. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and RA requiring ≥2 TPs 30 days prior were enrolled and followed for 24 months postimplant. Primary efficacy end point assessed at 6 months was reduction in paracentesis requirement; safety end point was device-related adverse events resulting in intervention, explant, or death. RESULTS: Forty patients with RA (mean Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium: 15 ± 4) received an alfapump. TP requirement was decreased from 3.2 ± 1.5 sessions per month preimplant to 0.2 ± 0.6 sessions per month at 6 months postimplant ( P < 0.001), with 77% of patients having ≥50% reduction. Six pumps (15%) were explanted within 6 months due to device-related adverse events, 3 (7.5%) due to pump site skin erosion, and 3 (7.5%) due to bladder discomfort. Twenty-four renal events occurred in the 0–6 month postimplant period; 16 cases were readily reversible stage 1 acute kidney injury. Ascites-related symptoms assessed with an Ascites Q score improved from 51.0 ± 19.3 preimplant to 32.2 ± 21.9 at 6 months postimplant ( P < 0.001). Physical but not mental components of Short Form 36 improved ( P < 0.001). The 5 deaths within 6 months postimplant were not directly related to the device or alfapump therapy. DISCUSSION: The alfapump system effectively controlled ascites, which improved quality of life. It may be considered as an alternative to repeat TP in select patients with RA. Complication rates were similar to those expected in patients with RA.

INTRODUCTION: Perception of the ascites burden and its effects on quality of life may be different between sexes. This study assessed sex differences in perception of ascites burden and its impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with recurrent or refractory ascites. METHODS: The North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled outpatients with cirrhosis and large ascites requiring repeat large volume paracenteses. Demographics, laboratory results, comorbidities, medications, frailty measurements, and self-reported questionnaires related to functional status, physical activities, and HRQoL (generic = Short Form 36 and ascites specific = Ascites Questionnaire) were compared between sexes. RESULTS: In total, 392 men (59.6 ± 10.7 years) and 184 women (59.5 ± 11.1 years) with predominantly alcohol-related liver disease (51% and 43%, respectively) and median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na: 13 were enrolled. Both groups had similar comorbidities and cirrhosis complications, ascites duration and severity, and frailty scores ( P = 0.94). Women had more symptoms related to their ascites (Ascites Questionnaire score = 66 ± 21 vs 60 ± 21 in men, P = 0.001) (higher value = feeling worse). 35% of women felt depressed vs 22% of men ( P = 0.0009), with lower mental but not physical functioning components of Short Form 36 ( P = 0.019). Women continued to conduct their daily activities as adequately as men as indicated by Duke Status Activity Index ( P = 0.27) and Godin Leisure Activity Index ( P = 0.47). DISCUSSION: Women with cirrhosis and ascites experienced worse emotional HRQoL than men without difference in daily function. Our analyses underscore the differences in the lived experience of women vs men with cirrhosis and highlight the need for patient-reported metrics to provide patient-centered care.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis can develop respiratory failure (RF), which is associated with a poor prognosis, but predisposing factors are unclear. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled a multicenter North American cirrhosis inpatient cohort and collected admission and in-hospital data (grading per European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure scoring system, acute kidney injury [AKI], infections [admission/nosocomial], and albumin use) in an era when terlipressin was not available in North America. Multivariable regression to predict RF was performed using only admission day and in-hospital events occurring before RF. RESULTS: A total of 511 patients from 14 sites (median age 57 years, admission model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]-Na 23) were enrolled: RF developed in 15%; AKI occurred in 24%; and 11% developed nosocomial infections (NI). At admission, patients who developed RF had higher MELD-Na, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding/AKI-related admission, and prior infections/ascites. During hospitalization, RF developers had higher NI (especially respiratory), albumin use, and other organ failures. RF was higher in patients receiving albumin (83% vs 59%, P < 0.0001) with increasing doses (269.5 ± 210.5 vs 208.6 ± 186.1 g, P = 0.01) regardless of indication. Admission for AKI, GI bleeding, and high MELD-Na predicted RF. Using all variables, NI (odds ratio [OR] = 4.02, P = 0.0004), GI bleeding (OR = 3.1, P = 0.002), albumin use (OR = 2.93, P = 0.01), AKI (OR = 3.26, P = 0.008), and circulatory failure (OR = 3.73, P = 0.002) were associated with RF risk. DISCUSSION: In a multicenter inpatient cirrhosis study of patients not exposed to terlipressin, 15% of patients developed RF. RF risk was highest in those admitted with AKI, those who had GI bleeding on admission, and those who developed NI and other organ failures or received albumin during their hospital course. Careful volume monitoring and preventing nosocomial respiratory infections and renal or circulatory failures could reduce this risk.

Hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI), a serious complication of decompensated cirrhosis, has limited therapeutic options and significant morbidity and mortality. Terlipressin improves renal function in some patients with HRS-1, while liver transplantation (LT) is a curative treatment for advanced chronic liver disease. Renal failure post-LT requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) is a major risk factor for graft and patient survival. A post hoc analysis with a 12-month follow-up of LT recipients from a placebo-controlled trial of terlipressin (CONFIRM; NCT02770716) was conducted to evaluate the need for RRT and overall survival. Patients with HRS-1 were treated with terlipressin plus albumin or placebo plus albumin for up to 14 days. RRT was defined as any type of procedure that replaced kidney function. Outcomes compared between groups included the incidence of HRS-1 reversal, the need for RRT (pretransplant and posttransplant), and overall survival. Of the 300 patients in CONFIRM (terlipressin n = 199; placebo, n = 101), 70 (23%) underwent LT alone (terlipressin, n = 43; placebo, n = 27) and 5 had simultaneous liver-kidney transplant (terlipressin, n = 3, placebo, n = 2). The rate of HRS reversal was significantly higher in the terlipressin group compared with the placebo group (37%, n = 16 vs. 15%, n = 4; p = 0.033). The pretransplant need for RRT was significantly lower among those who received terlipressin (p = 0.007). The posttransplant need for RRT, at 12 months, was significantly lower among those patients who received terlipressin and were alive at Day 365, compared to placebo (p = 0.009). Pretransplant treatment with terlipressin plus albumin in patients with HRS-1 decreased the need for RRT pretransplant and posttransplant.

Summary Background Previous studies suggested increased mortality in patients with hepatorenal syndrome type 1 (HRS1) and advanced acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF). Aim To assess mortality and respiratory failure (RF) in patients with HRS1 and ACLF treated with terlipressin. Methods In the CONFIRM study, we randomised 299 patients with HRS1 2:1 to terlipressin or placebo, both with albumin. At enrolment, all patients were assessed for organ failure (OF) using a validated ACLF grading system. Post hoc analyses assessed the effects of terlipressin vs. placebo on the incidence of RF and 90‐day mortality. Results The incidence of RF with terlipressin ( n = 200) was 9.4% in patients with grades 1–2 ACLF, and 30% with grade 3 ACLF ( p = 0.0002); no such difference was observed in placebo‐treated patients ( n = 99) (6.2% grades 1–2 vs. 0% grade 3 ACLF, p > 0.05). RF incidence between terlipressin and placebo in patients with grade 3 ACLF was significant ( p = 0.01). Baseline predictors of RF with terlipressin were INR ( p = 0.011), mean arterial pressure ( p = 0.037), and SpO 2 ( p = 0.014). Prior albumin as a continuous variable was not a predictor of RF. 90‐day survival between terlipressin and placebo arms was similar for grades 1–2 ACLF (55.5% and 56.6%, respectively), but lower for grade 3 ACLF (27.55% vs. 50.0%) ( p = 0.122), mainly related to RF. Conclusion Terlipressin should be used with caution in patients with HRS1 and grade 3 ACLF. Patients with hypoxaemia are at increased risk of RF and mortality.

Abstract Cirrhosis is complicated by a high rate of nosocomial infections (NIs), which result in poor outcomes and are challenging to predict using clinical variables alone. Our aim was to determine predictors of NI using admission serum metabolomics and gut microbiota in inpatients with cirrhosis. In this multicenter inpatient cirrhosis study, serum was collected on admission for liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry metabolomics, and a subset provided stool for 16SrRNA analysis. Hospital course, including NI development and death, were analyzed. Metabolomic analysis using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) (demographics, Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease [MELD] admission score, white blood count [WBC], rifaximin, and infection status adjusted) and random forest analyses for NI development were performed. Additional values of serum metabolites over clinical variables toward NI were evaluated using logistic regression. Stool microbiota and metabolomic correlations were compared in patients with and without NI development. A total of 602 patients (231 infection admissions) were included; 101 (17%) developed NIs, which resulted in worse inpatient outcomes, including intensive care unit transfer, organ failure, and death. A total of 127 patients also gave stool samples, and 20 of these patients developed NIs. The most common NIs were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis followed by urinary tract infection, Clostridioides difficile, and pneumonia. A total of 247 metabolites were significantly altered on ANCOVA. Higher MELD scores (odds ratio, 1.05; p < 0.0001), admission infection (odds ratio, 3.54; p < 0.0001), and admission WBC (odds ratio, 1.05; p = 0.04) predicted NI (area under the curve, 0.74), which increased to 0.77 (p = 0.05) with lower 1‐linolenoyl‐glycerolphosphocholine (GPC) and 1‐stearoyl‐GPC and higher N‐acetyltryptophan and N‐acetyl isoputreanine. Commensal microbiota were lower and pathobionts were higher in those who developed NIs. Microbial–metabolite correlation networks were complex and dense in patients with NIs, especially sub‐networks centered on Ruminococcaceae and Pseudomonadaceae. NIs are common and associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis. Admission gut microbiota in patients with NIs showed higher pathobionts and lower commensal microbiota. Microbial–metabolomic correlations were more complex, dense, and homogeneous among those who developed NIs, indicating greater linkage strength. Serum metabolites and gut microbiota on admission are associated with NI development in cirrhosis.

AbstractBackgroundThe prognosis of acute kidney disease (AKD), defined as a glomerular filtration rate of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or a rise in serum creatinine (sCr) of <50% for <3 months, is not clearly known.AimTo study the prevalence, predictive factors and clinical outcomes in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with AKD.MethodsThe North American Consortium for the Study of End‐Stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled hospitalized decompensated cirrhotic patients. Patients were separated into those with normal renal function (controls or C), AKD or stage 1 AKI as their worst renal dysfunction per International Club of Ascites definition and compared. Parameters assessed included demographics, laboratory data, haemodynamics, renal and patient outcomes.Results1244 patients with cirrhosis and ascites (C: 704 or 57%; AKD: 176 or 14%; stage 1 AKI: 364 or 29%) with similar demographics were enrolled. AKD patients had similar baseline sCr but higher hospital admission in the previous 6 months, and higher peak sCr, compared to controls, with their peak sCr being lower than that in stage 1 AKI patients (all P < .0001). The in‐hospital and 30‐day survival for AKD patients were intermediary between that for controls and stage 1 AKI patients (96% vs 91% vs 86%, P < .0001). The strongest predictors for AKD development while in hospital were the presence of a second infection (OR: 2.44) and diabetes (OR: 1.53).ConclusionsPatients with AKD had intermediate outcomes between stage 1 AKI and controls. AKD patients, especially those with diabetes and a second infection, need careful monitoring and prompt treatment for AKD to prevent negative outcomes.