Kamath, Patrick S.

ABSTRACT Background and Aims It remains unclear whether different factors influence 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates. We identified predictors of 90‐day mortality in a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis. Methods Variables associated with 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge readmission, liver transplantation (LT), and mortality were compared in prospectively enrolled, non‐electively hospitalised adult patients with cirrhosis. Results We enrolled 4208 patients from 125 centres across 37 countries. Alcohol‐related liver disease was the most common aetiology of cirrhosis (40%), followed by hepatitis B virus infection (21%); 47% were readmitted, 8% received liver transplantation (LT), and 23% died within 90 days post‐discharge. In multivariable analysis, country income was significantly associated with both 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates, the receipt of LT, and mortality within 30 and 90 days post‐discharge (all p ‐values < 0.001). Independent predictors of higher rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmissions, respectively, were disease severity ( p < 0.001, p = 0.003), prior ascites ( p = 0.025, p = 0.016), prior hospitalisation ( p < 0.001), hyponatremia ( p < 0.001, p = 0.008), and in‐hospital vasopressor use ( p = 0.002, p = 0.011). Prior variceal bleeding independently predicted higher 90‐day readmission rates, whereas age, disease severity, mechanical ventilation, and in‐hospital vasopressor use (all, p < 0.001) increased odds of 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge death. Additionally, admission ( p = 0.011) and nosocomial ( p = 0.022) infections increased the odds of 90‐day post‐discharge death. Conclusion In a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis, patients in high‐income countries exhibited the highest rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmission, alongside lower mortality rates and a higher incidence of LT. Variables that predict 30‐day readmission also predicted 90‐day readmission. Understanding these disparities is essential for achieving health equity.

Background: Noninvasive tests are well validated in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease, but evidence in metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-associated liver disease (MetALD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is limited. We evaluated noninvasive test–based clinical care pathways for fibrosis risk stratification in MetALD and ALD. Methods: This is a multinational, multicenter, cross-sectional study across 35 centers in 16 countries (2013–2025), including adults with MetALD or ALD. Fibrosis was assessed by liver biopsy and/or vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). In biopsy-proven participants, we analyzed the sequential pathway (Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] first, followed by VCTE for indeterminate FIB-4) to identify advanced fibrosis (≥F3). Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the AUC. Results: Among 893 participants (41.3% MetALD and 58.7% ALD), the median age was 52 [43.0–61.0] years, and 79.4% were male. The estimated prevalence of advanced fibrosis was 45% (32.2% in MetALD and 54.0% in ALD). Participants with MetALD had a more dysmetabolic profile but lower fibrosis stages than ALD. Among biopsy-proven participants, FIB-4 AUC was 0.720, and VCTE AUC was 0.833. FIB-4 performed better in MetALD than ALD (AUC 0.773 vs. 0.540), while VCTE accuracy was similar across groups. In the sequential pathways, the false-negative rate for advanced fibrosis (misclassified as low risk) was 6.8% (4.9% MetALD and 11.3% ALD). Conclusions: In biopsy-proven patients, FIB-4 performance was acceptable in MetALD but substantially weaker in ALD. The standard 2-step pathway performed adequately in MetALD but missed a clinically meaningful proportion of advanced fibrosis in ALD.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with high short-term mortality. Identifying key predictors of poor outcomes is critical for guiding therapeutic strategies. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), a key determinant of tissue perfusion and systemic hemodynamics, may play a pivotal role in prognosis. METHODS: We analyzed a multicenter, prospective cohort of 323 patients hospitalized with AH, with validation in an independent cohort of 290 patients. Survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality, adjusted for Model for end stage liver disease score. Mechanistic insights were explored through assessment of cardiovascular biomarkers. RESULTS: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg was associated with significantly higher mortality at both 28 days (27.3% vs 8.0%) and 90 days (40.3% vs 15.6%; P < 0.001 for both). This association persisted after adjusting for Model for end stage liver disease score, age, and baseline hepatic encephalopathy. The incidence of infections during follow-up was similar across MAP groups (27.6% vs 22.8%), but acute kidney injury occurred more frequently in the MAP <80 mm Hg group (62% vs 38%, P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, patients with MAP <80 mm Hg also demonstrated significantly lower 28-day transplant-free survival. Although B-type natriuretic peptide and plasma renin levels were altered in patients with AH, they did not correlate with MAP values. DISCUSSION: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg is an independent predictor of short-term and mid-term mortality in patients with AH. Strategies aimed at restoring hemodynamic stability may improve outcomes in this high-risk population.

Introduction: Although the role of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRF) has been characterized in steatotic liver disease, their role in the severity of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of CMRF on mortality. Methods: Multinational prospective cohort study (2015–2024) including hospitalized patients with severe AH across 32 centers in 14 countries. Diagnosis of AH was made using the NIAAA criteria. Analyses included adjusted competing-risk models by age, sex, ethnicity, history of cirrhosis, CMRF, corticosteroid use, MELD, and ACLF grade, with liver transplantation as a competing risk. Results: 936 participants were included; mean age 48±11.2 years, and 88.9% were male. At least one CMRF was present in 46.6%; median body mass index (BMI) was 24.2 kg/m 2 [IQR: 22.8–28.2], prevalence of diabetes 17.6%, hypertension 16.5%, and dyslipidemia 5.8%. Median MELD was 24.4 [19.3–31.4], 86.7% had severe AH, and 180-day survival was 72.9%. Survival did not differ by CMRF status (log-rank p =0.453). In adjusted competing-risk models, higher age (sHR 1.02; 95%CI:1.01–1.04), greater alcohol intake (per g/day; sHR 1.001; 95%CI:1.000–1.002), MELD (sHR 1.04; 95%CI:1.01–1.06), and ACLF grade 2–3 (sHR 2.34 and 4.34) predicted mortality. However, no individual CMRF independently increased mortality. A prespecified non-linear BMI analysis showed modestly lower mortality between 25–40 kg/m², with a higher risk above 40 kg/m². Conclusion: Among patients with severe AH, metabolic dysfunction was not associated with increased mortality. Although a higher BMI was associated with slightly lower mortality in AH, this may reflect better nutritional status rather than a true protective effect.

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.

Background/Aims: Infections with drug-resistant organisms (DROs) are associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis. Rifaximin, widely used for hepatic encephalopathy (HE), could promote cross-resistance, but data regarding clinical impact are conflicting. Aim: Determine predictors of DROs in a global cirrhosis inpatient cohort focusing on preadmission rifaximin use.Methods: From the global CLEARED consortium, we focused on cirrhosis inpatients with infections on/during admission. Clinical/demographic/medication, especially rifaximin details were recorded. The primary outcome was DRO development. Multivariable regression for DRO including clinical, medications, and country income was performed.Results: 2,949 infected inpatients (55.3 years, 62.9% male) were included. 12.2% of all and 24.4% of culture-positive infections developed DROs; these patients had higher HE (39 vs. 31%, <i>P</i>=0.003), hepatorenal syndrome (25 vs. 19%, <i>P</i>=0.006), lactulose (55 vs. 47%, <i>P</i>=0.008) and rifaximin use (34 vs. 27%, <i>P</i>=0.006) on crude comparisons but country-income distributions were similar. 29.7% were on pre-admission rifaximin, mostly HE-related; they had more advanced cirrhosis and from low/low-middle-income countries. Daptomycin was used in 1.5%, linked with DROs (5.0 vs. 1.0%, <i>P</i><0.0001) without a difference in rifaximin use (1.4 vs.1.7%, <i>P</i>=0.61). On adjusted analysis, MELD-Na (1.03, 95% CI 1.02–1.04, <i>P</i><0.001) increased, whereas male sex (0.73, 95% CI 0.58–0.92, <i>P</i>=0.008) and hepatitis-B (0.65, 95% CI 0.45–0.92, <i>P</i>=0.020) decreased DRO. Rifaximin was not associated with DROs overall (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.80–1.43, <i>P</i>=0.65) or within income strata (high: 1.07, 95% CI 0.59–1.92, <i>P</i>=0.82, upper-middle: 1.18, 95% CI 0.74–1.85, <i>P</i>=0.49, low/low-middle: 1.04, 95% CI 0.60–1.81, <i>P</i>=0.90) despite sensitivity analyses.Conclusions: In this large global cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and infections, 12% developed infections involving DROs. 30% had pre-admission rifaximin use which was not linked with daptomycin use or with DRO development on adjusted analysis overall or across country income groups.

ABSTRACT Hepatoid adenocarcinoma (HAC) is a rare extrahepatic tumor of non‐germ cell origin that morphologically resembles hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HAC has a propensity to metastasize to the liver and therefore may be mistaken for HCC. There is a lack of standardized treatment protocols, and further studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of targeted therapy and immunotherapy. Recent studies have reported that tumor protein 53 ( TP53 ) gene mutations are associated with increased expression of programmed cell death ligand‐1 (PD‐L1), which may be a predictor of response to PD‐L1 targeted checkpoint inhibitors. This review provides a clinical guidance for the management of patients with HAC by summarizing the salient clinical features, risk factors, diagnostic criteria, differential diagnosis, new therapeutic approaches, and prognosis of this rare tumor. Furthermore, we reviewed the Mayo Clinic experience to describe the clinical characteristics of 15 patients diagnosed with HAC. HAC is usually diagnosed at an advanced stage with distant metastases. In patients diagnosed with liver lesions that have similar radiologic and histologic features to HCC, particularly in the absence of underlying chronic liver disease, further evaluation should be performed to rule out HAC. Communication between medical subspecialties is important to avoid misdiagnosis and prevent further disease progression. In our patient cohort TP53 was the most frequently mutated gene (5 out of 8, 62.5%) and PD‐L1 expression showed a positive score in 3 out of 6 patients (50%). However, only a few patients received immunotherapy (6 out of 14, 42.9%) suggesting that the numbers are too small to draw a conclusion about its efficacy in treating HAC.

INTRODUCTION: A Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-LA) score is an independent predictor of inpatient mortality and organ failure validated in more than 8,600 patients across diverse settings. However, its utility in sepsis, particularly when combined with lactate clearance (LA clearance), has not been fully evaluated. In this study, we examined the dynamic role of MELD-LA with 24-hour LA clearance as a predictor of 30-day mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis. METHODS: We analyzed cirrhosis patients with sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in a large US healthcare system (20 hospitals) from 2014 to 2022, examining MELD-LA and LA clearance within 24 hours as predictors of 30-day mortality. We externally validated our findings in the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver-acute-on-chronic liver failure Research Consortium, a multinational Asian cohort (31 centers) from 2009 to 2019. RESULTS: A total of 3,879 cirrhosis patients with sepsis were admitted to the ICU (43.2% female, 20.5% Hispanic, 12.4% on dialysis; mean initial LA 4.5 mmol/L, MELD 20.8, MELD-LA 17.6). Survivors showed a median lactate change of −1.04 (35% clearance) compared with −0.4 (12%) for nonsurvivors. LA clearance within 24 hours was influenced by the presenting MELD-LA. In the North American cohort, ≥35% LA clearance was associated with improved 30-day survival (odds ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.31–0.53; P < 0.001). Similarly, in the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver cohort (n = 1,259), ≥35% clearance was linked to a 60% reduction in mortality (odds ratio 0.42, 95% CI 0.28–0.62; P < 0.001). When stratified by LA clearance, patients with LA clearance of ≥35% had a higher percentage of early administration of resuscitative measures than those with LA clearance of < 10% especially regarding early antibiotic administration (82.5% vs 67.6%; P value <0.001). DISCUSSION: Early reduction in initial LA by one-third predicts 30-day mortality and may indicate treatment response in cirrhosis patients with sepsis in the ICU. Combining MELD-LA and LA clearance early enables better risk stratification and informs management.

Abstract Background & Aims: Alcohol is a leading global risk factor, over 200 diseases and injuries, but policy adoption varies. We updated the Alcohol Preparedness Index (API) to track global and regional policy trends from 2010–2019. Methods: Using WHO GISAH data for 141 countries, we scored five domains (policy frameworks; production/pricing/taxation; marketing/availability; drink-driving; monitoring/surveillance). The primary endpoint was % change in API. Trends were summarized by WHO region and correlates tested in adjusted regression. Results: In 2019, <25% of countries had a strong national alcohol plan and 40% had none. Production/pricing/taxation increased most (27%→78%); monitoring/surveillance reached strong levels in 47.5%. Median API increased from 57.0 [39.0–82.0] (2010) to 74.8 [58.3–83.5] (2016) and stayed above baseline in 2019 (67.8 [51.2–83.8]). Larger population predicted less API gain (β=−19.1, p<0.05); HDI and per-capita consumption did not. Conclusions: Global alcohol policy preparedness increased from 2010–2019.

Background and Aims: Prognosticating outcomes such as hospitalizations in outpatients with cirrhosis is challenging, especially with changing etiologies and demographics. This study aims to determine the impact of multi-omic strategies on outcome prediction. Approach and Results: NACSELD3 enrolls outpatients with cirrhosis with controlled/eradicated etiologies from 10 centers and follows them systematically. At baseline, clinical/demographic and cirrhosis details were recorded and saliva and serum samples were collected for microbiome and metabolome analysis, respectively. Multi-omic bioinformatic studies to determine the interaction of microbiota and metabolites with the clinical prediction of 6-month hospitalizations were performed. Five hundred sixty-five patients (60.2 y, 68% men, 35% alcohol, 33% metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, 21%, eradicated HCV with MELD 3.0 12) were enrolled. One hundred sixty-three (29%) required 6-month hospitalizations; most (75%) were liver-related. Those hospitalized had worse cirrhosis severity and comorbidity indices but similar demographics and oral health variables. Salivary microbiome alpha-diversity was lower (1.96±0.48 vs. 2.09±0.45, p =0.018) with greater pathobionts ( Streptococcus , Treponema, Enterococcaceae) and lower commensal genhospitalized/noera ( Veillonella, Prevotella, Haemophilus , Lachnospiraceae spp) at baseline. Serum metabolomics showed significant separation at baseline between hospitalized/non-hospitalized patients using supervised analyses with microbial-origin (phenyllactate, secondary bile acids, indoles), choline moieties, and polyamine/GABA (3-ureidopropionate/spermidine) metabolites being most prominent. Area under the curve using random forest for clinical, microbial, and metabolomic variables was higher than that of these individually. Latent factor analysis showed clinical variables (MELD 3.0, hemoglobin, and albumin) with the greatest impact, followed by salivary microbiota and then serum microbiome for hospitalization prediction. Conclusions: In a multicenter North American outpatient cirrhosis cohort with controlled etiologies, serum metabolomics and salivary microbiome add to clinical variables to prognosticate 6-month hospitalization.