Reddy, K. Rajender

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.

Background and Aims: Prognosticating outcomes such as hospitalizations in outpatients with cirrhosis is challenging, especially with changing etiologies and demographics. This study aims to determine the impact of multi-omic strategies on outcome prediction. Approach and Results: NACSELD3 enrolls outpatients with cirrhosis with controlled/eradicated etiologies from 10 centers and follows them systematically. At baseline, clinical/demographic and cirrhosis details were recorded and saliva and serum samples were collected for microbiome and metabolome analysis, respectively. Multi-omic bioinformatic studies to determine the interaction of microbiota and metabolites with the clinical prediction of 6-month hospitalizations were performed. Five hundred sixty-five patients (60.2 y, 68% men, 35% alcohol, 33% metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, 21%, eradicated HCV with MELD 3.0 12) were enrolled. One hundred sixty-three (29%) required 6-month hospitalizations; most (75%) were liver-related. Those hospitalized had worse cirrhosis severity and comorbidity indices but similar demographics and oral health variables. Salivary microbiome alpha-diversity was lower (1.96±0.48 vs. 2.09±0.45, p =0.018) with greater pathobionts ( Streptococcus , Treponema, Enterococcaceae) and lower commensal genhospitalized/noera ( Veillonella, Prevotella, Haemophilus , Lachnospiraceae spp) at baseline. Serum metabolomics showed significant separation at baseline between hospitalized/non-hospitalized patients using supervised analyses with microbial-origin (phenyllactate, secondary bile acids, indoles), choline moieties, and polyamine/GABA (3-ureidopropionate/spermidine) metabolites being most prominent. Area under the curve using random forest for clinical, microbial, and metabolomic variables was higher than that of these individually. Latent factor analysis showed clinical variables (MELD 3.0, hemoglobin, and albumin) with the greatest impact, followed by salivary microbiota and then serum microbiome for hospitalization prediction. Conclusions: In a multicenter North American outpatient cirrhosis cohort with controlled etiologies, serum metabolomics and salivary microbiome add to clinical variables to prognosticate 6-month hospitalization.

Refractory ascites often requires therapeutic paracentesis, which is associated with potential risks and diminished quality of life. Terlipressin is a vasopressin analog that is indicated for i.v. bolus injection for hepatorenal syndrome, with the potential to reduce large-volume ascites and its complications. Continuous infusion of terlipressin is associated with fewer adverse effects than bolus dosing. The efficacy and safety of continuous infusion of a novel liquid formulation of terlipressin acetate (BIV201) were evaluated in this open-label phase 2 study. Patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive two 28-day cycles of continuous infusion BIV201 plus standard of care (SOC) separated by a ≤56-day washout (n=10), or SOC alone (n=5). Data analysis was limited by the small sample size and confounded by a potential interaction with gabapentinoids in the BIV201+SOC group. Nonetheless, there were differences in favor of BIV201+SOC versus SOC in the coprimary efficacy endpoints and several quality of life assessments. The beneficial effects of BIV201 on liver complications (mean: 90% CI; BIV201-completers=2.87: 1.51; 5.46 vs. SOC=2.38: 1.20; 4.73) and the change in cumulative ascites (mean: 90% CI; BIV201-completers=−10.76: −26.51; 5.00 vs. SOC=−4.99: −21.95; 11.97) were more pronounced versus SOC in the 5 BIV201+SOC patients who completed both treatment cycles. There were also greater improvements in exploratory quality of life assessments and the percent change in therapeutic paracenteses with BIV201+SOC (−27.94±41.80) versus SOC (−16.67±45.64). Despite the high rate of hyponatremia in the BIV201+SOC group (4/10 patients), the safety profile suggested that continuous BIV201 infusion was well tolerated. These findings support further development of BIV201 in confirmatory trials.

INTRODUCTION: The alfapump system has been shown to be a possible alternative to repeat therapeutic paracentesis (TP) in selected patients with refractory ascites (RA). The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of alfapump on ascites control and quality of life in these patients. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and RA requiring ≥2 TPs 30 days prior were enrolled and followed for 24 months postimplant. Primary efficacy end point assessed at 6 months was reduction in paracentesis requirement; safety end point was device-related adverse events resulting in intervention, explant, or death. RESULTS: Forty patients with RA (mean Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium: 15 ± 4) received an alfapump. TP requirement was decreased from 3.2 ± 1.5 sessions per month preimplant to 0.2 ± 0.6 sessions per month at 6 months postimplant ( P < 0.001), with 77% of patients having ≥50% reduction. Six pumps (15%) were explanted within 6 months due to device-related adverse events, 3 (7.5%) due to pump site skin erosion, and 3 (7.5%) due to bladder discomfort. Twenty-four renal events occurred in the 0–6 month postimplant period; 16 cases were readily reversible stage 1 acute kidney injury. Ascites-related symptoms assessed with an Ascites Q score improved from 51.0 ± 19.3 preimplant to 32.2 ± 21.9 at 6 months postimplant ( P < 0.001). Physical but not mental components of Short Form 36 improved ( P < 0.001). The 5 deaths within 6 months postimplant were not directly related to the device or alfapump therapy. DISCUSSION: The alfapump system effectively controlled ascites, which improved quality of life. It may be considered as an alternative to repeat TP in select patients with RA. Complication rates were similar to those expected in patients with RA.

INTRODUCTION: Perception of the ascites burden and its effects on quality of life may be different between sexes. This study assessed sex differences in perception of ascites burden and its impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with recurrent or refractory ascites. METHODS: The North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled outpatients with cirrhosis and large ascites requiring repeat large volume paracenteses. Demographics, laboratory results, comorbidities, medications, frailty measurements, and self-reported questionnaires related to functional status, physical activities, and HRQoL (generic = Short Form 36 and ascites specific = Ascites Questionnaire) were compared between sexes. RESULTS: In total, 392 men (59.6 ± 10.7 years) and 184 women (59.5 ± 11.1 years) with predominantly alcohol-related liver disease (51% and 43%, respectively) and median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na: 13 were enrolled. Both groups had similar comorbidities and cirrhosis complications, ascites duration and severity, and frailty scores ( P = 0.94). Women had more symptoms related to their ascites (Ascites Questionnaire score = 66 ± 21 vs 60 ± 21 in men, P = 0.001) (higher value = feeling worse). 35% of women felt depressed vs 22% of men ( P = 0.0009), with lower mental but not physical functioning components of Short Form 36 ( P = 0.019). Women continued to conduct their daily activities as adequately as men as indicated by Duke Status Activity Index ( P = 0.27) and Godin Leisure Activity Index ( P = 0.47). DISCUSSION: Women with cirrhosis and ascites experienced worse emotional HRQoL than men without difference in daily function. Our analyses underscore the differences in the lived experience of women vs men with cirrhosis and highlight the need for patient-reported metrics to provide patient-centered care.

ABSTRACT Background The accuracy of current criteria for ruling out large oesophageal varices (LEV) and other endoscopic lesions of portal hypertension (PH) may be compromised by obesity and MASLD/MASH. Aims In the US multicentre SHUNT‐V study, we evaluated the disease severity index (DSI) for detecting LEV and other lesions of PH at endoscopy. Methods Subjects were adults with compensated cirrhosis scheduled for endoscopy to screen for varices. DSI was calculated from clearances of labelled cholates after oral and intravenous administration. DSI ≤ 18.3 was evaluated as a cut‐off for ruling out LEV with acceptance criteria of negative likelihood ratio < 0.52 and sensitivity > 85%. Results SHUNT‐V enrolled 306 subjects; 275 had both DSI and endoscopy, and 238 had Child–Pugh A cirrhosis (52.1% MASLD/MASH, 25.2% chronic hepatitis C and 15.6% alcoholic liver disease; 87% were overweight, 64% were obese and 54% had diabetes). AUROCs for DSI ranged from 0.81 to 0.82 for LEV and 0.79 to 0.80 for all significant PH lesions. DSI 18.3 had sensitivity 96.3%–100% for LEV and 97.3%–100% for all significant PH lesions. If DSI ≤ 18.3 were used as the sole determinant to defer EGD, 27%–35% of EGDs could have been avoided with 0%–3.7% of LEV and 0%–2.7% of all significant PH lesions missed. Conclusions HepQuant DSI predicts the likelihood of LEV and significant PH lesions across a spectrum of patient characteristics and disease aetiologies. DSI, based on liver function and portal‐systemic shunting, can aid in the decision to defer endoscopy for varices in patients with Child–Pugh A cirrhosis. Trial Registration: The SHUNT‐V study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03583996)

Hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. While liver transplantation is the definitive treatment, continuous terlipressin infusion for HRS-AKI may provide benefit and, as such, was assessed in a population composed of candidates for liver transplant (LT). Fifty hospitalized LT-eligible patients with HRS-AKI received a single bolus followed by continuous terlipressin infusion. Acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3, serum creatinine (SCr)>5.0 mg/dL, or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥35 were exclusions. Fifty hospitalized patients who received midodrine and octreotide or norepinephrine for HRS-AKI served as a historical comparator cohort. Complete response (CR) was defined as a ≥30% decrease in SCr with end-of-treatment (EOT) SCr≤1.5, partial response as a ≥30% decrease in SCr with EOT SCr>1.5, and nonresponse as a <30% decrease in SCr. CR rate was significantly higher in the terlipressin cohort compared to the historical cohort (64% vs. 16%, p<0.001). Survival, while numerically higher in those who received terlipressin, was statistically similar (D30: 94% vs. 82%, p=0.12; D90: 78% vs. 68%, p=0.37). Renal replacement therapy (RRT) was more common among terlipressin NR than CR and PR (70% vs. 3% vs. 13%, p < 0.001). EOT MELD and SCr were significantly lower within terlipressin cohort (MELD: 19 vs. 25, SCr: 1.4 vs. 2.1 mg/dL, p<0.001). Sixteen of 40 terlipressin-treated patients received LT-alone (terlipressin CR in 10/16). One patient on terlipressin had a hypoxic respiratory failure that responded to diuretics; one possibly had drug-related rash. With continuous terlipressin infusion, a CR rate of 64% was observed with a favorable safety profile. Terlipressin use was associated with lower EOT MELD and SCr than the historical midodrine and octreotide/norepinephrine cohort; LT-alone was accomplished in a high proportion of complete terlipressin responders.

Background: The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) among African Americans (AA) is not well understood. Methods: Transplant-free survival and hepatic decompensation–free survival were assessed using a retrospective research registry from 16 centers throughout North America. Patients with PSC alive without liver transplantation after 2008 were included. Diagnostic delay was defined from the first abnormal liver test to the first abnormal cholangiogram/liver biopsy. Socioeconomic status was imputed by the Zip code. Results: Among 850 patients, 661 (77.8%) were non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), and 85 (10.0%) were AA. There were no significant differences by race in age at diagnosis, sex, or PSC type. Inflammatory bowel disease was more common in NHWs (75.8% vs. 51.8% p =0.0001). The baseline (median, IQR) Amsterdam-Oxford Model score was lower in NHWs (14.3, 13.4–15.2 vs. 15.1, 14.1–15.7, p =0.002), but Mayo risk score (0.03, −0.8 to 1.1 vs. 0.02, −0.7 to 1.0, p =0.83), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (5.9, 2.8–10.7 vs. 6.4, 2.6–10.4, p =0.95), and cirrhosis (27.4% vs. 27.1%, p =0.95) did not differ. Race was not associated with hepatic decompensation, and after adjusting for clinical variables, neither race nor socioeconomic status was associated with transplant-free survival. Variables independently associated with death/liver transplant (HR, 95% CI) included age at diagnosis (1.04, 1.02–1.06, p <0.0001), total bilirubin (1.06, 1.04–1.08, p <0.0001), and albumin (0.44, 0.33–0.61, p <0.0001). AA race did not affect the performance of prognostic models. Conclusions: AA patients with PSC have a lower rate of inflammatory bowel disease but similar progression to hepatic decompensation and liver transplant/death compared to NHWs.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis can develop respiratory failure (RF), which is associated with a poor prognosis, but predisposing factors are unclear. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled a multicenter North American cirrhosis inpatient cohort and collected admission and in-hospital data (grading per European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure scoring system, acute kidney injury [AKI], infections [admission/nosocomial], and albumin use) in an era when terlipressin was not available in North America. Multivariable regression to predict RF was performed using only admission day and in-hospital events occurring before RF. RESULTS: A total of 511 patients from 14 sites (median age 57 years, admission model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]-Na 23) were enrolled: RF developed in 15%; AKI occurred in 24%; and 11% developed nosocomial infections (NI). At admission, patients who developed RF had higher MELD-Na, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding/AKI-related admission, and prior infections/ascites. During hospitalization, RF developers had higher NI (especially respiratory), albumin use, and other organ failures. RF was higher in patients receiving albumin (83% vs 59%, P < 0.0001) with increasing doses (269.5 ± 210.5 vs 208.6 ± 186.1 g, P = 0.01) regardless of indication. Admission for AKI, GI bleeding, and high MELD-Na predicted RF. Using all variables, NI (odds ratio [OR] = 4.02, P = 0.0004), GI bleeding (OR = 3.1, P = 0.002), albumin use (OR = 2.93, P = 0.01), AKI (OR = 3.26, P = 0.008), and circulatory failure (OR = 3.73, P = 0.002) were associated with RF risk. DISCUSSION: In a multicenter inpatient cirrhosis study of patients not exposed to terlipressin, 15% of patients developed RF. RF risk was highest in those admitted with AKI, those who had GI bleeding on admission, and those who developed NI and other organ failures or received albumin during their hospital course. Careful volume monitoring and preventing nosocomial respiratory infections and renal or circulatory failures could reduce this risk.