Citations

Objective To examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods We used data from patients with GCA (1950–2004) and RA (1955–2007) obtained from population-based cohorts. Yearly trends in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence were correlated with the F10.7 index (solar radiation at 10.7 cm wavelength, a proxy for the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation) and AL index (a proxy for the westward auroral electrojet and a measure of geomagnetic activity). Fourier analysis was performed on AL, F10.7, and GCA and RA incidence rates. Results The correlation of GCA incidence with AL is highly significant: GCA incidence peaks 0–1 year after the AL reaches its minimum (ie, auroral electrojet reaches a maximum). The correlation of RA incidence with AL is also highly significant. RA incidence rates are lowest 5–7 years after AL reaches maximum. AL, GCA and RA incidence power spectra are similar: they have a main peak (periodicity) at about 10 years and a minor peak at 4–5 years. However, the RA incidence power spectrum main peak is broader (8–11 years), which partly explains the lower correlation between RA onset and AL. The auroral electrojets may be linked to the decline of RA incidence more strongly than the onset of RA. The incidences of RA and GCA are aligned in geomagnetic latitude. Conclusions AL and the incidences of GCA and RA all have a major periodicity of about 10 years and a secondary periodicity at 4–5 years. Geomagnetic activity may explain the temporal and spatial variations, including east-west skewness in geographic coordinates, in GCA and RA incidence, although the mechanism is unknown. The link with solar, geospace and atmospheric parameters need to be investigated. These novel findings warrant examination in other populations and with other autoimmune diseases.

Abstract Background: The Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI) is a method to predict outcome after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy that integrates Ki67, estrogen receptor (ER) analysis and pathological stage from the surgical specimen (Ellis, JNCI 100:1380, 2008). We sought to further develop the PEPI for use in clinical trials by: a) establishing an efficient SOP for Ki67 analysis, b) determining the effect of simplifying the score by removing the ER component (modified "mPEPI") and c) independent validation of mPEPI in the ACOSOG (Alliance) Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial (Ellis, M, JCO 29:234, 2011). Methods: Ki-67 assay development focused on reproducing a 2.7% Ki-67 cut point (CP) required for PEPI. Ventana Image analysis (IA) to replace labor-intensive visual point counting (VPC) was assessed to increase scoring efficiency. Discordant scores led to a triage approach where cases with complex histological features that could not be resolved by IA were flagged for VPC. The Ki-67 scoring approach was preliminarily validated on T1/2 N0 cases from the P024 and POL trials (SABCS 2013, abstract P3-05-190). Models with and without ER suggested ER was dispensable. A locked SOP for mPEPI was subsequently applied to the Z1031A trial. The primary endpoint was time from the date of surgery to local, regional, or distant recurrence in the mPEPI-0 group (T1/2 N0, Ki67 <2.7%) versus the mPEPI>0 group. Results. mPEPI by IA was evaluated on 202 of 377 (53%) patients enrolled into Z1031A (6% of IA results were triaged to VPC). All patients have been followed a minimum of 2 years (median: 5 years; max: 7 years). Only 10 patients in the mPEPI-0 group (22.7%) received adjuvant chemotherapy, versus 78 in the mPEPI>0 group (49.4%). Time to breast cancer recurrence was decreased among those with mPEPI>0 status relative to those with mPEPI-0 status (log rank p=0.012). Only one disease event among 44 (2%) cases with mPEPI-0 was observed versus 26 of 158 cases with mPEPI>0 (16.5%) Conclusions. mPEPI-0 status can identify patients at low risk of relapse after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy: therefore mPEPI-0 status has operational characteristics similar to pCR after chemotherapy for ER-negative disease. mPEPI is undergoing prospective validation in the Alliance ALTERNATE trial that will assess whether Fulvestrant increases the mPEPI-0 rate and also will prospectively determine whether patients with mPEPI-0 status can safely be managed without adjuvant chemotherapy treatment. Citation Format: Souzan Sanati, Vera J Suman, Rodrigo Goncalves, Katherine DeSchryver, Cynthia X Ma, Jeremy Hoog, Erika Crouch, Michael Barnes, Gary Unzeitig, A Marilyn Leitch, Kelly K Hunt, Matthew J Ellis. Validation of the preoperative endocrine prognostic index in the ACOSOG (Alliance) Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-11-13.

Abstract [Background] Patient advocates bring a unique, valuable perspective and presence to SPOREs. However, although patient advocates are recommended members of SPORE grants, guidelines are not given on the role of advocates or on measurement of the performance of advocates. [Methods] The Mayo Clinic Breast Cancer SPORE Patient Advocate Advisory Committee has developed a participation measurement tool. This tool will underpin and augment evaluations of the individual advocate contributions by the program PI and the SPORE project leaders. The Advocate Advisory Committee Chair will review the evaluations with the individual advocates. Annually, the advocate committee will review the performance of the group by the standard of the metrics. [Results] Advocates kept a log of their SPORE activities for four months then worked with a statistician to discern patterns of measurable, evaluable behaviors. The determined evaluable areas are training, scientific activity, meeting attendance, communication. Currently, those metrics are being tracked. Advocates developed the metrics together and report activities at the monthly advocate meetings. Currently, activities are simply tracked and categorized. No minimum standards are set. This will be the third step in the development of the metrics. [Conclusions] This approach is the first step in the development of meaningful evaluation of advocate SPORE activities. It quantifies the participation of advocates in the SPORE and provides the basis for developing a qualitative performance evaluation. The SPORE PI and the Committee Chair will use the evaluations to interpret the involvement of advocates in SPORE research and activities and to plan interventions to strengthen the advocate contributions to the SPORE. Citation Format: Cynthia Chauhan, Wayland Eppard, Lori Denison, Debra Gearhart, Lawanna Holmes, Ruth Kraft, Linda Miller, Mary A Sitta, Mary L Smith, James Ingle, Matthew Goetz. Measurements of advocate participation in and contributions to the Mayo Clinic breast cancer SPORE [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-09-04.

Abstract Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) in patients (pts) with locally advanced estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer (BC) improves breast conservation rate, and importantly offers an opportunity for individualized assessment of tumor responsiveness to ET to guide subsequent treatment. Previous neoadjuvant ET trials demonstrated that pathologic tumor size (pT), axillary lymph node status (N), and tumor Ki67 value at surgery predicted risk of relapse. Preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) was therefore developed to assign risk scores based on these factors. Modified PEPI 0, defined by pT1-2 N0 Ki67< 2.7%, was associated with extremely low risk of recurrence without adjuvant chemotherapy. In addition, high Ki67 post 2-4 weeks (wks) of neoadjuvant ET identified resistant tumors with poor outcome. ALTERNATE trial is a three-arm phase III neoadjuvant/adjuvant ET trial designed to achieve two primary objectives. The first is to prospectively validate that modified PEPI 0 predicts > 95% relapse-free survival (RFS). The second is to determine whether fulvestrant (F), or fulvestrant (F) plus anastrozole (A), is superior to A in inducing a higher rate of modified PEPI 0. Secondary objectives include assessing RFS for pts with endocrine resistant tumor, defined by Ki67 > 10% at 4 or 12 wk, disease progression, or modified PEPI non-0, and pathologic responses of resistant tumors to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Correlative studies include degrees of Ki67 suppression and ER level post treatment. In addition, ongoing research sequencing studies of DNA and RNA will be performed to contrast sensitive vs resistant tumors. During the first phase of the trial, 1200 pts are randomized 1:1:1 to the F, A or F/A. This provides an 82% chance, 1-sided alpha 0.025 chi-square test to detect at least 10% difference in modified PEPI 0 rate comparing F or F/A with A. While waiting for result of analysis, the A arm will continue for the 2nd phase enrollment. Only the F-containing arm(s) superior over A will be continued to the 2nd phase. During the 2nd phase, an additional 540 pts in each arm is estimated to obtain 317 pts with PEPI score 0. This will have a 90% chance, with a one-sided alpha=0.025 nonparametric Brookmeyer-Crowley type one sample survival test, rejecting that 5 year RFS rate is 95%. The maximum sample size is 2820 pts. Eligible pts include postmenopausal women with newly diagnosed clinical stage II or III ER+ (Allred score 6-8) HER2- BC. Tumor biopsy is required at baseline, 4 wk, and surgery for central Ki67 analysis. Treatment decision is individualized based on 4 wk Ki67 and modified PEPI score. Pts with Ki67 > 10% at 4 wk are switched to chemotherapy. Pts with a modified PEPI score of 0 are recommended not to receive chemotherapy, but continue the assigned ET for 1.5 years followed by 3 years of A. This trial is currently accruing pts through CTSU. This research is supported in part by NCI BIQSFP, and grants from Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Genentech, and the Investigator-Sponsored Study Program of AstraZeneca. The Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT01953588. Citation Format: Cynthia X Ma, Vera Suman, A Marilyn Leitch, Souzan Sanati, Katherine DeSchryver, Gary W Unzeitig, Paul Haluska, Mark Watson, Olwen Hahn, Jo Anne Zujewski, Kelly Hunt, Eric P Winer, Cliff A Hudis, Matthew J Ellis. Alliance A011106: ALTernate approaches for clinical stage II or III Estrogen Receptor positive breast cancer NeoAdjuvant TrEatment (ALTERNATE) in postmenopausal women: A phase III study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr OT2-1-04.

Objectives To assess whether HOUSES (HOUsing-based index of socioeconomic status (SES)) is associated with risk of and mortality after rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Design We conducted a population-based case–control study which enrolled population-based RA cases and their controls without RA. Setting The study was performed in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Participants Study participants were all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with RA identified using the 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA from 1 January 1988, to 31 December 2007, using the auspices of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. For each patient with RA, one control was randomly selected from Olmsted County residents of similar age and gender without RA. Primary and secondary outcome measure The disease status was RA cases and their matched controls in relation to HOUSES as an exposure. As a secondary aim, post-RA mortality among only RA cases was an outcome event. The associations of SES measured by HOUSES with the study outcomes were assessed using logistic regression and Cox models. HOUSES, as a composite index, was formulated based on a summed z-score for housing value, square footage and number of bedrooms and bathrooms. Results Of the eligible 604 participants, 418 (69%) were female; the mean age was 56±15.6 years. Lower SES, as measured by HOUSES, was associated with the risk of developing RA (0.5±3.8 for controls vs −0.2±3.1 for RA cases, p=0.003), adjusting for age, gender, calendar year of RA index date, smoking status and BMI. The lowest quartile of HOUSES was significantly associated with increased post-RA mortality compared to higher quartiles of HOUSES (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.74; p=0.017) in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Lower SES, as measured by HOUSES, is associated with increased risk of RA and mortality after RA. HOUSES may be a useful tool for health disparities research concerning rheumatological outcomes when conventional SES measures are unavailable.

Background Our previous study of nonelderly adult decedents with nonnatural (accident, suicide, or homicide) cause of death (96% autopsy rate) between 1981 and 2004 revealed that the decline in subclinical coronary artery disease ( CAD ) ended in the mid‐1990s. The present study investigated the contributions of trends in obesity and diabetes mellitus to patterns of subclinical CAD and explored whether the end of the decline in CAD persisted. Methods and Results We reviewed provider‐linked medical records for all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota , who died from nonnatural causes within the age range of 16 to 64 years between 1981 and 2009 and who had CAD graded at autopsy. We estimated trends in CAD risk factors including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes (qualifying fasting glucose or medication), body mass index, smoking, and diagnosed hyperlipidemia. Using multiple regression, we tested for significant associations between trends in CAD risk factors and CAD grade and assessed the contribution of trends in diabetes and obesity to CAD trends. The 545 autopsied decedents with recorded CAD grade exhibited significant declines between 1981 and 2009 in systolic blood pressure and smoking and significant increases in blood pressure medication, diabetes, and body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 . An overall decline in CAD grade between 1981 and 2009 was nonlinear and ended in 1994. Trends in obesity and diabetes contributed to the end of CAD decline. Conclusions Despite continued reductions in smoking and blood pressure values, the previously observed end to the decline in subclinical CAD among nonelderly adult decedents was apparent through 2009, corresponding with increasing obesity and diabetes in that population.