Citations

Abstract Background: Prospective validation of breast cancer risk models integrating classical risk factors and genetic variants is required for risk-stratified prevention and screening strategies. The objective of this study was to validate a breast cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) in multiple prospective cohort studies, and to project five-year risk of breast cancer in six different countries. Methods: The study population included 7,529 cases and 230,103 controls from 14 prospective cohort studies in Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, and USA. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator (iCARE) tool for risk model building, validation, and risk projection. Expected five-year risk of invasive or in situ breast cancer was compared to observed risk, overall and within deciles of expected risk using goodness of fit statistics. We evaluated calibration of the relative risk through meta-analysis across cohorts, and of the absolute risk within each cohort. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), and percentages of women crossing risk thresholds. Projections of five-year risk distributions were estimated for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in the general populations of these six countries. Results: Analysis showed overall good calibration of the integrated iCARE-based model relative risk for both women younger than 50 years (χ2=14.9, P=0.09) and aged 50 years or older (χ2=14.6, P=0.10), with a small overestimation of risk for women in the highest decile of expected risk (RR = 3.5 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) observed for women <50 years; and 2.8 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.7) observed for women 50+ years). The age-adjusted AUCs for the integrated model were 63.1 (95% CI 60.9 to 65.3) and 62.9 (95% CI 61.8 to 64.0), for the two age groups respectively. The calibration of absolute risk showed substantial variation across cohorts, particularly for the older group, but had no systematic bias. Model based projections in the general populations showed that compared to the population average, women in the 1st and 99th percentiles of the integrated risk score had relative risks 0.19 and 3.56 respectively. The proportion of women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years with a five-year risk greater than 3% (threshold for consideration of risk-lowering drugs by U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) ranged from 7.1% in Germany to 18.2% in the US, which corresponds to ~5.5 million women in the US. Conclusions: Five-year risk predictions from a model with classical risk factors and PRS are well calibrated and provide substantial risk stratification across multiple cohorts in six different countries. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical utility of the validated model for risk stratified screening and prevention of breast cancer. Citation Format: Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Amber Wilcox, Chi Gao, Brian Carter, Anika Husing, Mark Brook, Mikael Eriksson, Kara Martin, Chris Scott, Min Shi, Thomas Ahearn, Michael Jones, Nick Orr, Minouk Schoemaker, Kamila Czene, Jenny Chang-Claude, Jacques Simard, Doug Easton, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Dale Sandler, Clarice R. Weinberg, Celine Vachon, Roger Milne, Per Hall, Anthony Swerdlow, Rudolph Kaaks, Myrto Barrdahl, Mia Gaudet, Antonis Antoniou, Peter Kraft, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Nilanjan Chatterjee. Validation of breast cancer risk model incorporating classical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in 14 prospective cohort studies in 6 countries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 962.

Abstract Background The immunohistochemical (IHC) 4 + clinical treatment score (C) i.e. IHC4+C assay combines IHC assessment of four routinely measured markers in the clinical setting, including estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and KI67, with other clinical parameters for aiding decision-making on adjuvant chemotherapy in hormone positive (HR+) breast cancer. It is low cost, widely available and has been shown to provide similar prognostic information to the 21-gene (Oncotype DX) test. Clinical use of IHC4+C is limited by the need for standardized scoring of the IHC markers. Here, we examine the prognostic value of a digital image analysis (DIA) based IHC4+C assay in two study populations and compare this with pathologists' visual assay in a subset of patients. We also evaluated its potential clinical relevance in relation to the Nottingham prognostic index [NPI; i.e. low (<3.4), intermediate (3.4-5.4) and high (>5.4)] and IHC defined breast cancer subtypes (i.e. luminal A-like and B-like). Methods Using DIA data on ER, PR, HER2 and KI67, in addition to clinicopathological characteristics of tumors, we computed DIA based IHC4+C (i.e. DIAIHC4+C) assay for 2,034 women from study populations in Poland (PBCS) and the United Kingdom (SEARCH). A total of 246 deaths occurred over a median follow-up period of 6.7 years. A relevant threshold was determined using quartile analysis and the relationship between dichotomous categories (>75th vs ≤ 75th percentile) of DIAIHC4+C and 10-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and in Cox proportional hazard regression models, overall and stratified by study, NPI and subtype. Results DIAIHC4+C score was associated with worse 10-year BCSS overall [HR (95% CI) >75th vs ≤ 75th percentile = 2.92 (1.77, 4.82); p-value <0.0001] and in both the PBCS [3.48 (1.40, 8.65); p-value = 0.007] and SEARCH [3.87 (2.24, 6.68); p-value <0.0001] study populations. DIAIHC4+C was associated with significantly worse survival outcomes in women with intermediate NPI [1.94 (1.31, 2.88); p-value = 0.001] and luminal A-like subtype of HR+ tumors [5.37 (3.50, 8.26); p-value <0.0001]. DIA and visual IHC4+C results were highly correlated (r = 0.95) and survival associations and model fit parameters were similar for DIA [3.82 (2.08, 7.00); p-value < 0.0001; AIC = 472.3] and visual [4.73 (2.55, 8.76); p-value < 0.0001; AIC = 466.1] IHC4+C scores amongst 444 patients with data from both sources. Conclusion These findings are in support of the prognostic value of DIAIHC4+C assay in HR+ breast cancer and demonstrate its potential clinical relevance as an adjunct to the NPI. Given the advantages of being high-throughput and highly reproducible, DIA based methods could find use in the standardization of the analytical processes for the IHC4+C assay. Citation Format: Mustapha Abubakar, Paul D. Pharoah, Mark E. Sherman, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Mitch Dowsett. Digital image analysis based IHC4+C assay and prognosis in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2971.

Abstract Introduction: Genome-wide association studies over the past 10 years have identified over 100 common variants associated with breast cancer risk. The association of these polymorphisms varies according to estrogen receptor status of the tumor, with some associated primarily with ER+ or ER- disease, or both subtypes. However, ER expression in breast cancer cells is continuous. The aim of this study was to establish whether the association between polygenic risk scores and ER expression in breast cancer is continuous in nature. Methods: Data were taken from the international Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Germline genotype data for 75 SNPs previously reported to be associated with breast cancer were available for 4,999 breast cancer cases for which ER expression data were also available. Automated ER expression on a continuous scale was measured using two image analysis algorithms: Astrogrid and Ariol. A third form of ER expression score, the manual Allred ordinal, was used. Genotype data were used to calculate polygenic risk scores using the equation: PRS = ∑ βx where β is the log-odds of the odds ratio (OR) of breast cancer associated with that single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and x is the number of variant alleles at a SNP locus. Five different PRSs were calculated: i) SNPs associated with both ER+ and ER- disease (PRS-A, n= 74) ii) SNPs associated with ER+ disease at P<0.01 (PRS-B, n= 65) iii) SNPs associated with ER- disease at P<0.01 (PRS-C, n= 43) iv) SNPs associated with ER+ but not ER- disease (PRS-D, n= 30) v) SNPs associated with ER- but not ER+ disease (PRS-E, n = 8) The ER-specific weights for the PRS were taken from previous OR estimates. Linear regression models adjusted for study were used to test for a relationship between the five PRSs and ER expression measured on the Ariol, Astrogrid and Allred scales. Results: There was a strong positive correlation found between PRS-B against Astrogrid (β=0.0176, P=4.06x10-4), a weak negative correlation found with PRS-C (β=-0.012, P=0.019) and a weak positive correlation for PRS-A (β=0.012, P=0.0144). PRS-D and E showed far stronger association with Astrogrid than PRS-B and C, respectively (β=0.0186 and -0.017, P=1.97x10-4 and 8.1x10-4). There was a qualitatively similar association when the PRSs were correlated with Ariol and Allred, apart from the stronger correlations with PRS-B (β=91.2 and 0.0853, P=5.52x10-4 and 1.33x10-3). Conclusion: We have shown a robust association between PRS and ER expression in the directions we predicted. This suggests that the continuous variation in ER expression is biologically plausible and linked to genetic polymorphism. The weakening of association with PRS-A and the stronger associations with PRS-D and E show that having SNPs that are associated with both ER subtypes in the same PRS weakens significance, and suggests that subtype-specific PRSs may be improved on by using SNPs exclusive to the respective subtype. Citation Format: Anamay H. Shetty, Raza Ali, Fiona Blows, Carlos Caldas, Nicholas Inard, Javier Benítez, Jenny Chang-Claude, Georgia Chenevix-Trench, Fergus Couch, Angela Cox, Peter Devilee, Douglas Easton, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Arto Mannermaa, Heli Nevanlinna, Marjanka Schmidt, Paul Pharoah. Patient level polygenic risk scores and continuous estrogen receptor expression in breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2211.

AbstractWe aimed to validate the prognostic association of p16 expression in ovarian high‐grade serous carcinomas (HGSC) and to explore it in other ovarian carcinoma histotypes. p16 protein expression was assessed by clinical‐grade immunohistochemistry in 6525 ovarian carcinomas including 4334 HGSC using tissue microarrays from 24 studies participating in the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. p16 expression patterns were interpreted as abnormal (either overexpression referred to as block expression or absence) or normal (heterogeneous). CDKN2A (which encodes p16) mRNA expression was also analyzed in a subset (n = 2280) mostly representing HGSC (n = 2010). Association of p16 expression with overall survival (OS) was determined within histotypes as was CDKN2A expression for HGSC only. p16 block expression was most frequent in HGSC (56%) but neither protein nor mRNA expression was associated with OS. However, relative to heterogeneous expression, block expression was associated with shorter OS in endometriosis‐associated carcinomas, clear cell [hazard ratio (HR): 2.02, 95% confidence (CI) 1.47–2.77, p < 0.001] and endometrioid (HR: 1.88, 95% CI 1.30–2.75, p = 0.004), while absence was associated with shorter OS in low‐grade serous carcinomas (HR: 2.95, 95% CI 1.61–5.38, p = 0.001). Absence was most frequent in mucinous carcinoma (50%), and was not associated with OS in this histotype. The prognostic value of p16 expression is histotype‐specific and pattern dependent. We provide definitive evidence against an association of p16 expression with survival in ovarian HGSC as previously suggested. Block expression of p16 in clear cell and endometrioid carcinoma should be further validated as a prognostic marker, and absence in low‐grade serous carcinoma justifies CDK4 inhibition.

Limited epidemiological evidence suggests that the etiology of hormone receptor positive (HR+) breast cancer may differ by levels of histologic grade and proliferation. We pooled risk factor and pathology data on 5,905 HR+ breast cancer cases and 26,281 controls from 11 epidemiological studies. Proliferation was determined by centralized automated measures of KI67 in tissue microarrays. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p‐values for case–case and case–control comparisons for risk factors in relation to levels of grade and quartiles (Q1–Q4) of KI67 were estimated using polytomous logistic regression models. Case–case comparisons showed associations between nulliparity and high KI67 [OR (95% CI) for Q4 vs. Q1 = 1.54 (1.22, 1.95)]; obesity and high grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 1.68 (1.31, 2.16)] and current use of combined hormone therapy (HT) and low grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 0.27 (0.16, 0.44)] tumors. In case–control comparisons, nulliparity was associated with elevated risk of tumors with high but not low levels of proliferation [1.43 (1.14, 1.81) for KI67 Q4 vs. 0.83 (0.60, 1.14) for KI67 Q1]; obesity among women ≥50 years with high but not low grade tumors [1.55 (1.17, 2.06) for grade 3 vs. 0.88 (0.66, 1.16) for grade 1] and HT with low but not high grade tumors [3.07 (2.22, 4.23) for grade 1 vs. 0.85 (0.55, 1.30) for grade 3]. Menarcheal age and family history were similarly associated with HR+ tumors of different grade or KI67 levels. These findings provide insights into the etiologic heterogeneity of HR+ tumors.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary intracranial neoplasia, and is characterized by its extremely poor prognosis. Despite maximum surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation, the histological heterogeneity of GBM makes total eradication impossible, due to residual cancer cells invading the parenchyma, which is not otherwise seen in radiographic images. Even with gross total resection, the heterogeneity and the dormant nature of brain tumor initiating cells allow for therapeutic evasion, contributing to its recurrence and malignant progression, and severely impacting survival. Visual delimitation of the tumor’s margins with common surgical techniques is a challenge faced by many surgeons. In an attempt to achieve optimal safe resection, advances in approaches allowing intraoperative analysis of cancer and non-cancer tissue have been developed and applied in humans resulting in improved outcomes. In addition, functional paradigms based on stimulation techniques to map the brain’s electrical activity have optimized glioma resection in eloquent areas such as the Broca’s, Wernike’s and perirolandic areas. In this review, we will elaborate on the current standard therapy for newly diagnosed and recurrent glioblastoma with a focus on surgical approaches. We will describe current technologies used for glioma resection, such as awake craniotomy, fluorescence guided surgery, laser interstitial thermal therapy and intraoperative mass spectrometry. Additionally, we will describe a newly developed tool that has shown promising results in preclinical experiments for brain cancer: optical coherence tomography.

Abstract Introduction: Terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution, an age-related physiological process, is characterized by the reduction of size and numbers. Reduced involution is associated with higher mammographic density, a strong breast cancer risk factor. Both factors predict risk of developing breast cancer among women with benign disease. Given that prior studies have been conducted mainly in White women, we compared the extent of TDLU involution among Western and Asian breast cancer cases to describe potential racial heterogeneity in breast cancer etiology. Method: We obtained three TDLU involution metrics (count/100 mm2, mean span, and mean acini count/TDLU; all inversely correlated with TDLU involution) measured in benign breast tissue sections from 379 Chinese (254 luminal A and 125 core basal phenotype [CBP] cases) and 476 Polish (407 luminal A and 69 CBP) breast cancer cases. Polytomous logistic regression was performed using tertiles of TDLU measures as ordinal dependent variable and race as an independent variable. Covariates included age, body mass index, and parity. Analyses were performed separately by age group (&lt;50, ≥50) and subtype (luminal A and CBP). Results: Among luminal A cases, Chinese had significantly greater TDLU count compared with Polish in both age groups (ORtrend= 11.0; 95% CI=2.80-43.2; Ptrend=0.001 for age&lt;50; ORtrend= 12.1; 95% CI=5.12-28.7; Ptrend=1E-08 for age≥50). In addition, Chinese were more likely to have greater mean span and acini count among younger cases (ORtrend=2.5; 95% CI=1.44-4.28; Ptrend=0.001 for mean span and ORtrend=7.4; 95% CI=4.13-13.4; Ptrend=3E-11 for acini count) but not among older cases. Among CBP cases, Chinese were more likely to have greater acini count compared to Polish only among younger women (ORtrend=2.6; 95% CI=1.12-6.95; Ptrend=0.03 for age&lt;50). Conclusion: We found Chinese were more likely to have reduced TDLU involution compared to Polish cases after accounting for potential confounders, with greater differences for luminal A and younger women. Studies of TDLU involution in diverse populations are needed to confirm and understand whether population difference in TDLU involution metrics are related to age at breast cancer onset and risks for specific tumor subtypes. Citation Format: Hyuna Sung, Changyuan Guo, Jennifer Guida, Shan Zheng, Erni Li, Jing Li, Nan Hu, Joseph Deng, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Jonine Figueroa, Mark Sherman, Gretchen Gierach, Ning Lu, Xiaohong R. Yang. Racial variation in terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution in Chinese and Polish breast cancer patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5290. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5290