Dynamic prediction of renal survival using artificial intelligence:
an international study of deeply phenotyped cohorts of kidney transplant recipients
Abstract The authors have requested that this preprint be removed from Research Square.
Interim Analyses of the MMRC Reference Collection Identifies Recurrent Genomic-Level Events in Multiple Myeloma and Demonstrates That CDKN2C/p18 Deletion Is the Pre-Eminent Copy Number Alteration in Poor Prognosis Disease
Abstract The Multiple Myeloma Research Consortium (MMRC) Genomics Initiative was instigated to harness the power of multiple genomic approaches to further the understanding of multiple myeloma. To date, 137 samples from patients with newly diagnosed and relapsed myeloma (out of an estimated final total of 250 by the end of the year) have been subjected to expression profiling and array comparative genomic hybridization. To identify regions of recurrent copy number alteration with a high degree of confidence, we have used the Genomic Identification of Significant Targets In Cancer (GISTIC) algorithm, which detects such regions and assigns a probability to each. Application of GISTIC to the MMRC collection identified 14 significant regions of amplification and 15 significant regions of deletion. The algorithm further detects peaks of copy number change that contribute to each region’s significance. Of genes that were expressed in our dataset, a total of 64 across the genome were found to lie within the boundaries of significant amplification peaks and 30 were found to lie within significant deletion peaks. Given the likelihood that this gene collection is highly enriched for genes important in the pathogenesis of myeloma and potential therapeutic targets, it has been prioritized for further validation with the amplified genes submitted for arrayed RNAi and the deleted genes expedited for re-sequencing. In order to define a poor prognosis group, we developed and applied a model based on the gene expression dataset of Shaughnessy and colleagues. To identify pathways activated in poor prognosis disease, we applied Gene Set Enrichment Analysis with the Molecular Signatures Database. This demonstrated enrichment of multiple canonical pathways within the poor prognosis group, including those associated with proliferation, cell cycle progression and DNA repair. A search for recurrent copy number events associated with poor prognosis disease revealed that by far the most significant event, and the only one surviving correction for multiple hypothesis testing, was mono- or bi-allelic deletion of CDKN2C (p18). Interestingly, the poor prognosis group also demonstrated higher expression of p18 in those samples without bi-allelic deletion and of CDKN2A (p16). Deletion and increased expression of p18 in high proliferation index myeloma samples has previously been described. However, our analyses demonstrate the pre-eminence of p18 loss for defining poor prognosis disease compared to other recurrent copy number changes. Furthermore, it expands on work in other tumors demonstrating feedback mechanisms between cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor pathways, suggesting a more complex model of interplay between the pathways than previously described. In conclusion, the MMRC reference collection is proving an important tool in the fight to understand key genetic events in multiple myeloma and would ultimately be anticipated to contribute towards development of improved therapy for the disease.
Competency‐Based Assessment Tool for Pediatric Tracheotomy: International Modified Delphi Consensus
Objectives/HypothesisCreate a competency‐based assessment tool for pediatric tracheotomy.Study DesignBlinded, modified, Delphi consensus process.MethodsUsing the REDCap database, a list of 31 potential items was circulated to 65 expert surgeons who perform pediatric tracheotomy. In the first round, items were rated as “keep” or “remove,” and comments were incorporated. In the second round, experts were asked to rate the importance of each item on a seven‐point Likert scale. Consensus criteria were determined a priori with a goal of 7 to 25 final items.ResultsThe first round achieved a response rate of 39/65 (60.0%), and returned questionnaires were 99.5% complete. All items were rated as “keep,” and 137 comments were incorporated. In the second round, 30 task‐specific and seven previously validated global rating items were distributed, and the response rate was 44/65 (67.7%), with returned questionnaires being 99.3% complete. Of the Task‐Specific Items, 13 reached consensus, 10 were near consensus, and 7 did not achieve consensus. For the 7 previously validated global rating items, 5 reached consensus and two were near consensus.ConclusionsIt is feasible to reach consensus on the important steps involved in pediatric tracheotomy using a modified Delphi consensus process. These items can now be considered to create a competency‐based assessment tool for pediatric tracheotomy. Such a tool will hopefully allow trainees to focus on the important aspects of this procedure and help teaching programs standardize how they evaluate trainees during this procedure.Level of Evidence5 Laryngoscope, 130:2700–2707, 2020
Plasmablastic Morphology—An Independent Prognostic Factor With Clinical and Laboratory Correlates: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Myeloma Trial E9486 Report by the ECOG Myeloma Laboratory Group
Abstract We studied the prognostic significance of plasmablastic (PB) multiple myeloma (MM) in Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Phase III trial E9486. Two reviewers independently reviewed 453 cases. They agreed on 37 PB (8.2%) cases and 416 non-PB cases, achieving an 85% concordance (P < .0001). These PB cases had significantly lower hemoglobin and serum albumin levels, higher calcium and β 2-microglobuin levels, and higher percentage BM plasma cells (PC) by immunofluorescence. They had higher bone marrow PC labeling indices, higher serum soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R) levels, and a higher probability of ras mutations. Three treatment regimens were used: vincristine, bis-chloro-ethyl nitrosourea (BCNU) melphalan, cyclophosphamide, and prednisone (VBMCP) alone; VBMCP with added cyclophosphamide (HiCy); or recombinant interferon α 2 (rIFNα2). Although the numbers are low, patients with PB had a significantly lower response rate versus non-PB MM when treated with VBMCP (treated, 47.1% v nontreated, 66.5% [P = .015]). Patients with nonresponding PB had a significantly higher progression rate than non-PB cases (30.6%v 11.8% [P < .0001]), especially with VBMCP alone (35.3% v 15.8% [P = .002]), and with added HiCy (37.5% v 9.8% [P < .0001]), but not with added rIFNα2. Event-free and overall survival of PB MM was shorter (median years, 1.1 v 2.7 and 1.9 v 3.7, respectively [P < .0001 for both]). In multivariate analysis, PB classification was also highly prognostic. There is no survival difference between the patients who were classified as PB by both reviewers versus patients classified as PB by only one reviewer. We conclude that PB MM is a discrete entity associated with more aggressive disease and shortened survival. Tumor cell rasmutations and increased sIL-6R may contribute to a higher proliferation rate and reduced survival. There were significant improvements in response and progression with the addition of HiCy and rIFNα2 to VBMCP, but the numbers were small and improved survival could not be shown.
Plasmablastic Morphology—An Independent Prognostic Factor With Clinical and Laboratory Correlates: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Myeloma Trial E9486 Report by the ECOG Myeloma Laboratory Group
We studied the prognostic significance of plasmablastic (PB) multiple myeloma (MM) in Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Phase III trial E9486. Two reviewers independently reviewed 453 cases. They agreed on 37 PB (8.2%) cases and 416 non-PB cases, achieving an 85% concordance (P < .0001). These PB cases had significantly lower hemoglobin and serum albumin levels, higher calcium and β 2-microglobuin levels, and higher percentage BM plasma cells (PC) by immunofluorescence. They had higher bone marrow PC labeling indices, higher serum soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R) levels, and a higher probability of ras mutations. Three treatment regimens were used: vincristine, bis-chloro-ethyl nitrosourea (BCNU) melphalan, cyclophosphamide, and prednisone (VBMCP) alone; VBMCP with added cyclophosphamide (HiCy); or recombinant interferon α 2 (rIFNα2). Although the numbers are low, patients with PB had a significantly lower response rate versus non-PB MM when treated with VBMCP (treated, 47.1% v nontreated, 66.5% [P = .015]). Patients with nonresponding PB had a significantly higher progression rate than non-PB cases (30.6%v 11.8% [P < .0001]), especially with VBMCP alone (35.3% v 15.8% [P = .002]), and with added HiCy (37.5% v 9.8% [P < .0001]), but not with added rIFNα2. Event-free and overall survival of PB MM was shorter (median years, 1.1 v 2.7 and 1.9 v 3.7, respectively [P < .0001 for both]). In multivariate analysis, PB classification was also highly prognostic. There is no survival difference between the patients who were classified as PB by both reviewers versus patients classified as PB by only one reviewer. We conclude that PB MM is a discrete entity associated with more aggressive disease and shortened survival. Tumor cell rasmutations and increased sIL-6R may contribute to a higher proliferation rate and reduced survival. There were significant improvements in response and progression with the addition of HiCy and rIFNα2 to VBMCP, but the numbers were small and improved survival could not be shown.
IPI24: An International Study To Create An IPI For The Event-Free Survival At 24 Months (EFS24) Endpoint For DLBCL In The Immunochemotherapy Era
Abstract We have recently reported that event-free survival at 24 months from diagnosis (EFS24) is a robust endpoint for assessment of disease related outcome for newly diagnosed patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with anthracycline-based immunochemotherapy (IC). Patients who achieve EFS24 following IC have a subsequent overall survival that is equivalent to the age and sex matched general population. The IPI was developed in the pre-rituximab era using OS/EFS endpoints. While the IPI is associated with outcome in the IC era, the original survival estimates for the IPI risk groups are outdated. The IPI is also a discrete risk classifier, with only 6 possible groups. Here we remodel the IPI using EFS24 as the endpoint in a large international cohort of patients treated with IC. This model provides an individual level 0-100% risk of failing to achieve EFS24 for each patient and can be used for patient prognosis, treatment stratification, and risk assessment. Methods Newly diagnosed DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy from the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic SPORE Molecular Epidemiology Resource, NCCTG N0489 clinical trial, GELA LNH2003B program, and a Lyon, France based hospital registry were included in the original EFS24 study. Patients with a relapse, progression, unplanned re-treatment, or death due to any cause within 730 days of diagnosis were considered a failure for the EFS24 endpoint. Patients alive and progression/relapse free at 730 days from diagnosis with no subsequent treatment following initial IC were considered a success for the EFS24 endpoint. Variables selected for potential model inclusion were the IPI components (age, stage, ECOG PS, number of extranodal sites, and LDH), as well as standard clinical variables typically reported in studies of DLBCL: presence of B-symptoms, bone marrow involvement, bulky disease (>10 cm), and sex. The IPI24, a prognostic model for EFS24, was developed using logistic regression models. Model building began by fitting the classic IPI score (0-5), then allowing individual IPI variables to carry different model weights and number of categories, followed by dropping insignificant variables, finally adding any additional significant variables. Model performance was assessed using bias corrected c-statistics, AIC, and R2 values. Model selection was done using the complete case set with multiple imputation on the full dataset used to refine parameter estimates for the final model. Results 1596 total patients were available for modeling. The median age was 62 (range 18-93) and 53% were male; 33% were IPI 0-1, 25% were IPI 2, 25% were IPI 3, and 17% were IPI of 4-5. The failure rate for achieving EFS24 was 29%. All variables but sex (p=0.33) were univariately associated with EFS24 (p<6.4x10-5). The original IPI had good prognostic ability for EFS24 (c=0.696, p=2.2x10-32). Allowing multiple categories for ECOG PS, stage, and age (continuous) improved model fit and prognostic ability (c=0.727). The number of extranodal sites was not significant when IPI variables were modeled separately and was removed from the model. Sex and bulky disease were additional significant variables when added to the model. Thus, the final IPI24 model contained the following risk predictors: male sex, ECOG PS (0 vs. 1 vs 2 vs 3-4), stage (I vs. II, vs. III vs. IV), LDH (elevated vs. normal range), bulky disease > 10cm, and age (continuous). This model resulted in improved fit and prognostic ability (c=0.749) over the standard IPI (c=0.696, bootstrap p<0.001). Model validation was performed on an additional 158 patients from the SPORE MER and showed good concordance (c=0.697). Additional validation is planned in a larger set of independent patients. Conclusion The IPI24, generated using standard clinical variables, yields an individual risk prediction for failing to achieve EFS24 following IC for treatment of DLBCL. The IPI24 has superior prognostic ability to the standard IPI and can be implemented in the clinic using a nomogram or as a simple electronic application. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.
HOXA9 Is a Novel Therapeutic Target in Multiple Myeloma.
Abstract Abstract 832 We hypothesized that new therapeutic targets for multiple myeloma (MM) could be discovered through the integrative computational analysis of genomic data. Accordingly, we generated gene expression profiling and copy number data on 250 clinically-annotated MM patient samples. Utilizing an outlier statistical approach, we identified HOXA9 as the top candidate gene for further investigation. HOXA9 expression was particularly high in patients lacking canonical MM chromosomal translocations, and allele-specific expression analysis suggested that this overexpression was mono-allelic. Indeed, focal copy number amplifications at the HOXA locus were observed in some patients. Outlier HOXA9 expression was further validated in both a collection of 52 MM cell lines and 414 primary patient samples previously described. To further verify the aberrant expression of HOXA9 in MM, we performed quantitative RT-PCR, which confirmed expression in all MM patients and cell lines tested, with high-level expression in a subset. To further investigate the mechanism of aberrant HOXA9 expression, we interrogated the pattern of histone modification at the HOXA locus because HOXA gene expression is particularly regulated by such chromatin marks. Accordingly, immunoprecipitation studies showed an aberrantly low level of histone 3 lysine 27 trimethylation marks (H3K27me3) at the HOXA9 locus. H3K27me3 modification is normally associated with silencing of HOXA9 in normal B-cell development. As such, it appears likely that the aberrant expression of HOXA9 in MM is due at least in part to defects in histone modification at this locus. To determine the functional consequences of HOXA9 expression in MM, we performed RNAi-mediated knock-down experiments in MM cell lines. Seven independent HOXA9 shRNAs that diminished HOXA9 expression resulted in growth inhibition of 12/14 MM cell lines tested. Taken together, these experiments indicate that HOXA9 is essential for survival of MM cells, and that the mechanism of HOXA9 expression relates to aberrant histone modification at the HOXA9 locus. The data thus suggest that HOXA9 is an attractive new therapeutic target for MM. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.
Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin Role in Human Pulmonary Artery Smooth Muscle Proliferation and Contractility
Abstract Rationale The diagnostic concordance between transbronchial lung cryobiopsy (TBLC)—versus surgical lung biopsy (SLB) as the current gold standard—in interstitial lung disease (ILD) cases requiring histology remains controversial. Objectives To assess diagnostic concordance between TBLC and SLB sequentially performed in the same patients, the diagnostic yield of both techniques, and subsequent changes in multidisciplinary assessment (MDA) decisions. Methods A two-center prospective study included patients with ILD with a nondefinite usual interstitial pneumonia pattern (on high-resolution computed tomography scan) confirmed at a first MDA. Patients underwent TBLC immediately followed by video-assisted thoracoscopy for SLB at the same anatomical locations. After open reading of both sample types by local pathologists and final diagnosis at a second MDA (MDA2), anonymized TBLC and SLB slides were blindly assessed by an external expert pathologist (T.V.C.). Kappa-concordance coefficients and percentage agreement were computed for: TBLC versus SLB, MDA2 versus TBLC, MDA2 versus SLB, and blinded pathology versus routine pathology. Measurements and Main Results Twenty-one patients were included. The median TBLC biopsy size (longest axis) was 7 mm (interquartile range, 5–8 mm). SLB biopsy sizes averaged 46.1 ± 13.8 mm. Concordance coefficients and percentage agreement were: TBLC versus SLB: κ = 0.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01–0.44), percentage agreement = 38% (95% CI, 18–62%); MDA2 versus TBLC: κ = 0.31 (95% CI, 0.06–0.56), percentage agreement = 48% (95% CI, 26–70)%; MDA2 versus SLB: κ = 0.51 (95% CI, 0.27–0.75), percentage agreement = 62% (95% CI, 38–82%); two pneumothoraces (9.5%) were recorded during TBLC. TBLC would have led to a different treatment if SLB was not performed in 11 of 21 (52%) of cases. Conclusions Pathological results from TBLC and SLB were poorly concordant in the assessment of ILD. SLBs were more frequently concordant with the final diagnosis retained at MDA.
KEYNOTE-059 cohort 1: Pembrolizumab (Pembro) monotherapy in previously treated advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction (G/GEJ) cancer in patients (Pts) with PD-L1+ tumors—Asian subgroup analysis.
723 Background: The US FDA approved pembro for treating pts with 1) recurrent locally advanced or metastatic G/GEJ adenocarcinoma, whose disease has progressed on or after ≥2 prior therapies and whose tumors express PD-L1 (combined positive score [CPS] ≥1), and 2) unresectable or metastatic, microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) solid tumors that have progressed after prior therapy and who have no fitting options. We report Asian subgroup analyses from cohort 1 of KEYNOTE-059 (NCT02335411), a global, phase 2 study in advanced G/GEJ cancer. Methods: Eligible pts had measurable recurrent or metastatic G/GEJ adenocarcinoma whose disease has progressed on ≥2 prior chemotherapy regimens. Pts received pembro 200 mg Q3W up to 2 y. PD-L1+ tumors had a CPS ≥1. Primary end points were ORR (RECIST 1.1, by central review) and safety. Results: Cohort 1 enrolled 259 pts; 57% had PD-L1+ tumors. MSI status was evaluable in 174 tumor samples; of these, 7 were MSI-H. At data cutoff (4/21/2017), median (range) follow-up was 6 mo (1-25). Overall ORR was 12% (95% CI, 8-17) and median (range) DOR was 14 mo (2-19+). PFS6-mo rate was 15% and OS6-mo rate was 46%. In pts with PD-L1+ tumors, ORR was 16% (95% CI, 11-23) and median (range) DOR was 14 mo (3+-19+). In pts with PD-L1+ tumors, PFS6-mo rate was 20% and OS6-mo rate was 50%. In pts with MSI-H tumors, ORR was 57% (95% CI, 18-90) and median (range) DOR was not reached (5-14+ mo). In cohort 1, 41 pts were Asian and 218 pts were non-Asian. PD-L1+ tumors occurred in 42% of Asian pts and 60% of non-Asian pts. ORR was 12% (95% CI, 2-36) in Asian pts with PD-L1+ tumors and 17% (95% CI, 11-24) in non-Asian pts with PD-L1+ tumors. One of 7 pts with MSI-H tumors was Asian; this pt had CR. Grade 3-5 treatment-related AEs occurred in 17% and 18% of Asian and non-Asian pts, similar to the overall cohort. Conclusions: Pembro showed durable clinical benefit in previously treated pts with advanced G/GEJ cancer, especially those with PD-L1+ or MSI-H tumors. Safety and efficacy were similar in Asian and non-Asian pts. These findings highlight pembro as a standard treatment option in Asian and non-Asian pts with advanced G/GEJ cancer. Clinical trial information: NCT02335411.