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12 citation(s) found for "Upjohn, D".

Association of a Polygenic Risk Score with Diagnosis and Outcomes in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Kalra, S. , Grilli, Christopher, Coombes, Brandon J. , Armasu, Sebastian M. , Upjohn, D, Egan, Jan B. , Chen, Qingwen , Tern, Courtney , Zhang, Chengyue, Rose, Jonathan A. , Putman, Rachel, McDermott, Greg, Hsieh, Yuli Lily , Bublitz, Michele L., Carmona, Eva M. , Klee, Eric W, Lazaridis, K, Peljto, Anna L. , Schwartz, D A, Silverman, Edwin K. , Olson, Janet, Walker, T, Zamora, Ana C., Zein, Joe , Ortega, V E, Cohort, Tapestry, McDermott, Gregory C , Kalra, Sean S , Grilli, Christopher B , Armasu, Sebastian , Upjohn, David P , Hsieh, Yuli L , Lasky-Su, Jessica , Silverman, Edwin K , Allen, Richard J , Walker, T'Nita, Wain, Louise V , Zamora, Ana, Zein, Joe G, Hunninghake, Gary M , Moll, Matthew , Cho, Michael H , Carmona, Eva M , McDermott, Gregory , Coombes, Brandon J , Putman, Rachel K. , Kn, Lazaridis, Lasky‐Su, Jessica , Dudbridge, Frank , Allen, Richard J. , Olson, JA, Hunninghake, Gary M. , Ali, Ahmad Hafiz , Sekulić, Aleksandar , Athreya, Arjun P. , Clermont, Blake J, N, Brittany, Burnap, Graddy, Courtney B., Cahn, Elliot, Klee, Eric W. , Sicotte, Hugues , Ekpoh, Idara U., Frank, Jacob A., Bruflat, Jamie K., Kemppainen, Jennifer L., Samadder, Jewel, Presutti, John J, Leitzke, Jon W, Lazaridis, Konstantinos N. , Tree, Kristine M, Jones, Leila A, Bandel, Lorelei A. , Karow, Mary E., Peterson, Melanie M., Bublitz, Michelle L. , Morales-Rosado, Joel, Erwin, Nate P., Larson, Nicholas B. , Olson, Rory, Vierkant, Robert A., Pignolo, Robert J. , Safgren, Stephanie, Bagaria, Sanjay P. , Tian, Shulan , Kaggal, Suneetha, Walker, T'Nita S., Wilson, Tammy A., McAllister, Tammy M., Tan-Arroyo, Jennifer, Luehrs, Tony, Ortega, Victor E. , Chen, Wenan , Cho, Michael H.

American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | July 2, 2026 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: No page available

10.1093/ajrccm/aamag271 | PMID 42391602 Get It

Abstract Rationale Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by chronic progressive pulmonary fibrosis and high mortality. Genetic markers, summarized into a polygenic risk score (PRS), associate with IPF in well-phenotyped research cohorts. Objectives To evaluate the performance of the PRS using real-world data from routinely captured electronic healthcare records. Methods We conducted an observational study evaluating the association of a PRS for IPF with electronic healthcare record diagnosis of IPF as well as lung transplant-free survival in four independent cohorts; the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB), Mayo Clinic Biobank (MCBB), Mayo Clinic Tapestry Cohort (Tapestry), and U.K. Biobank (UKBB). We used multivariable logistic regression and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, gender, and principal components of ancestry. The cohorts then underwent fixed and random effects meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results Of 37,709; 44,195; 43,202; and 447,422 participants from MGBB, MCBB, Tapestry and UKBB respectively, 1,015 (2.7%) 2,879 (6.5%), 1,310 (3.0%), and 2,742 (0.6%) participants had an IPF diagnosis. Meta-analysis demonstrated a high-risk PRS associated with IPF diagnosis, OR 2.88 (95%CI 2.41-3.44) compared to all other individuals. A high-risk PRS also associated with the composite endpoint of mortality or lung transplant among those with an IPF diagnosis, HR 1.23(95%CI 1.11-1.35) compared to all other individuals. Conclusions A PRS can identify those at risk for an IPF diagnosis and mortality in biobank-scale data, which may have implications for clinical decisions. Further work is necessary to evaluate the utility of adding genetics in clinical settings.
B29-14 Genetic Insights Into Asthma Exacerbations: A Gwas in the Mayo Clinic Tapestry Cohort
Agogo-Mawuli, P S, Bleecker, E R, Fernandez, G, Grilli, C, Chiarella, S E, Shrivastav, A, Upjohn, D, Egan, J, Cardet, J C, Castro, M, Denlinger, L C, Vierkant, R, Luehrs, T, Sicotte, H, Lazaridis, K, Fahy, J V, Israel, E, Jarjour, N N, Mauger, D T, Moore, W C, Levy, B D, Woodruff, P G, Wenzel, S E, Meyers, D A, Zein, J G, Ortega, V E, Agogo-Mawuli, Percy S. , Cardet, Juan Carlos , Denlinger, Loren C. , Vierkant, Robert A. , Luehrs, Tony, Sicotte, Hugues , Kn, Lazaridis, Fahy, John V. , Israel, Elliot , Levy, Bruce David , Wenzel, Sally E. , Meyers, Deborah A. , Zein, Joe

American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | May 18, 2026 | Volume: 212 | Issue: Supplement_1 | Pages: No page available

10.1093/ajrccm/aamag162.432 Get It

Abstract Rationale Asthma contributes substantially to healthcare burden and morbidity through frequent exacerbations. Emerging evidence suggests that genetic factors play a crucial role in modulating susceptibility to asthma exacerbations. To better understand the genetic architecture of exacerbations, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the Tapestry cohort. Methods The Tapestry Study, a large-scale, decentralized and clinical grade genomic sequencing study, conducted Exome+® sequencing at Helix, Inc. on 98,075 Mayo Clinic participants. After excluding patients with ≥10 pack-years of smoking and/or emphysema, we performed a GWAS of asthma exacerbations in 3,960 adults with asthma based on ICD codes. Cases (n = 1,059) were defined as individuals who experienced at least two exacerbations between 2020 and 2025; the remaining 2,901 individuals served as controls. Asthma exacerbations were defined by oral or systemic corticosteroid prescriptions with durations ranging from 3 days up to 28 days. Logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, BMI, and the first six principal components of ancestry. Replication was performed in 1,273 asthma patients (439 African Americans and 834 non-Hispanic Whites) from the NHLBI-sponsored Severe Asthma Research Program (SARP 1-3), with adjustments for age, sex, BMI, and the first 10 principal components of ancestry. Results Based on a minor allele frequency (MAF) threshold of > 0.05, we analyzed 5,256,135 genome-wide variants. Genome-wide significant associations for asthma exacerbations (p < 5.0 × 10⁻8) included loci at a pseudogene in SMPD4P1 (rs680548, MAF = 0.39, OR = 1.37, p = 9.10 × 10⁻9). Additional variants showing suggestive associations included loci within ENDOD1 (rs638776, OR = 0.69, p = 1.20 × 10⁻6), PCSK2 (rs2206454, OR = 1.32, p = 3.53 × 10⁻6), RBFOX1 (rs17667084, OR = 0.60, p = 5.11 × 10⁻6), and CDC42EP3 (rs721660, OR = 1.29, p = 5.68 × 10⁻6). Subthreshold associations in Tapestry including loci at CDC42EP3 (rs4670213, OR = 1.27, p = 1.41x10-5, MAF = 0.36), and SDR39U1 (rs12587663,OR = 0.83, p = 5.86x10-4, MAF = 0.46) were replicated in the SARP longitudinal visit 5 with p-values of 8.523x10-3 (rs4670213, OR = 1.78), and 2.88x10-4 (rs12587663,OR=0.43), respectively. Conclusion Our GWAS for asthma exacerbations in the Tapestry cohort identified variant loci relevant to mitophagy mechanisms (CDC42EP3, PMID: 40783597), immune signaling and RNA splicing regulation (RBFOX1, PMID: 31301374), and neuromodulatory pathways (PCSK2, PMID: 32794589), all previously implicated in asthma pathophysiology. Collectively, these findings highlight potential novel genetic contributors to asthma exacerbations and provide a foundation for improving risk stratification and therapeutic targeting in asthma management. This abstract is funded by: This abstract is funded by: Mayo Clinic Funding: X01 from the NHLBI for TOPMed whole-genome sequencing and NIH grants R01 HL142992, HL69116, HL69167, HL69170, HL69174, U10 HL109164, U10 HL109257, U10 HL109146, U10 HL109172, U10 HL109250, U10 HL109250, U10 HL109250, U10 HL109168, U10 HL109152, U10 HL109086, U10 HL109046.
Health system patterns of imaging and fluid biomarker testing in the era of anti‐amyloid therapies
Robb, W Hudson , Kaur, Gurkiran , Huang, Steven K. , Martínez, Felipe Derteano, Nguyen, Ba Thang, Shin, Clifford , Conyers, Christopher T. , Grilli, Christopher, Upjohn, David P., Ortega, V E, Hohman, Timothy J., Keegan, Richard, Cogswell, Petrice M., Graff‐Radford, Jonathan, Johnson, Derek R., Ramanan, Vijay K., Koran, Mary Ellen, Huang, Steven, Nguyen, Ba, Shin, Clifford H, Grilli, Christopher B, Koran, Mary Ellen , Martinez, Felipe, Nguyen, Ba, Yang, Ming , Hohman, Timothy J. , Parent, Ephraim E. , Cogswell, Petrice M. , Graff‐Radford, Jonathan , Ramanan, Vijay K. , Koran, Mary Ellen I.

Alzheimer's & Dementia | April 8, 2026 | Volume: 22 | Issue: 4 | Pages: No page available

10.1002/alz.71343 | PMID 41950049 Get It

Abstract INTRODUCTION Anti—amyloid‐β (Aβ) therapies are reshaping Alzheimer's disease (AD) management. Understanding changes in real‐world patterns of diagnostic testing and infusion chair usage is essential for optimizing access to care. METHODS Retrospective analysis of Mayo Clinic enterprise electronic health records (Jan 2019–Mar 2025) assessed trends in AD‐relevant brain imaging, fluid biomarkers, apolipoprotein E (APOE) testing, and lecanemab infusions. Rates of amyloid‐beta (Aβ) positivity by sex and age, APOE genotype frequencies, and lecanemab treatment initiation and discontinuation were evaluated. RESULTS Following national insurance coverage changes, lecanemab infusions grew by 110 infusions per quarter to 605 in Q1 2025. Aβ positron emission tomography scans increased (+22/quarter), cerebrospinal fluid biomarker orders declined (−25/quarter), and plasma p‐tau 217 orders rapidly increased (+238/quarter). Females were more likely to be Aβ positive ( p < 0.006). APOE ‐ε4 homozygotes were less likely to initiate lecanemab (HR = 0.11, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION The adoption of anti‐Aβ therapies coincided with a rapid shift in diagnostic workflows.
Does Preoperative Pharmacogenomic Testing of Patients Undergoing TKA Improve Postoperative Pain? A Randomized Trial
Kekić, Adrijana, Erickson, Colby , Grilli, Christopher, Seamans, David P. , Upjohn, David P., Hentz, Joseph G. , Kraus, Molly B , Grilli, Christopher B, Clarke, Henry D. , Spangehl, Mark J. , Kraus, Molly B. , Bingham, Joshua S.

Clinical Orthopaedics & Related Research | August 18, 2023 | Volume: 482 | Issue: 2 | Pages: 291-300

10.1097/corr.0000000000002767 | PMID 37594401 Get It

Abstract Background Pharmacogenomics is an emerging and affordable tool that may improve postoperative pain control. One challenge to successful pain control is the large interindividual variability among analgesics in their efficacy and adverse drug events. Whether preoperative pharmacogenomic testing is worthwhile for patients undergoing TKA is unclear. Questions/purposes (1) Are the results of preoperative pharmacogenetic testing associated with lower postoperative pain scores as measured by the Overall Benefit of Analgesic Score (OBAS)? (2) Do the results of preoperative pharmacogenomic testing lead to less total opioids given? (3) Do the results of preoperative pharmacogenomic testing lead to changes in opioid prescribing patterns? Methods Participants of this randomized trial were enrolled from September 2018 through December 2021 if they were aged 18 to 80 years and were undergoing primary TKA under general anesthesia. Patients were excluded if they had chronic kidney disease, a history of chronic pain or narcotic use before surgery, or if they were undergoing robotic surgery. Preoperatively, patients completed pharmacogenomic testing (RightMed, OneOME) and a questionnaire and were randomly assigned to the experimental group or control group. Of 99 patients screened, 23 were excluded, one before randomization; 11 allocated patients in each group did not receive their allocated interventions for reasons such as surgery canceled, patients ultimately undergoing spinal anesthesia, and change in surgery plan. Another four patients in each group were excluded from the analysis because they were missing an OBAS report. This left 30 patients for analysis in the control group and 38 patients in the experimental group. The control and experimental groups were similar in age, gender, and race. Pharmacogenomic test results for patients in the experimental group were reviewed before surgery by a pharmacist, who recommended perioperative medications to the clinical team. A pharmacist also assessed for clinically relevant drug-gene interactions and recommended drug and dose selection according to guidelines from the Clinical Pharmacogenomics Implementation Consortium for each patient enrolled in the study. Patients were unaware of their pharmacogenomic results. Pharmacogenomic test results for patients in the control group were not reviewed before surgery; instead, standard perioperative medications were administered in adherence to our institutional care pathways. The OBAS (maximum 28 points) was the primary outcome measure, recorded 24 hours postoperatively. A two-sample t-test was used to compare the mean OBAS between groups. Secondary measures were the mean 24-hour pain score, total morphine milligram equivalent, and frequency of opioid use. Postoperatively, patients were assessed for pain with a VAS (range 0 to 10). Opioid use was recorded preoperatively, intraoperatively, in the postanesthesia care unit, and 24 hours after discharge from the postanesthesia care unit. Changes in perioperative opioid use based on pharmacogenomic testing were recorded, as were changes in prescription patterns for postoperative pain control. Preoperative characteristics were also compared between patients with and without various phenotypes ascertained from pharmacogenomic test results. Results The mean OBAS did not differ between groups (mean ± SD 4.7 ± 3.7 in the control group versus 4.2 ± 2.8 in the experimental group, mean difference 0.5 [95% CI -1.1 to 2.1]; p = 0.55). Total opioids given did not differ between groups or at any single perioperative timepoint (preoperative, intraoperative, or postoperative). We found no difference in opioid prescribing pattern. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, no difference was observed between the treatment and control groups in tramadol use (41% versus 71%, proportion difference 0.29 [95% CI 0.05 to 0.53]; nominal p = 0.02; adjusted p > 0.99). Conclusion Routine use of pharmacogenomic testing for patients undergoing TKA did not lead to better pain control or decreased opioid consumption. Future studies might focus on at-risk populations, such as patients with chronic pain or those undergoing complex, painful surgical procedures, to test whether pharmacogenomic results might be beneficial in certain circumstances. Level of Evidence Level I, therapeutic study.
PROSPECTIVE RANDOMIZED STUDY USING PHARMACOGENETICS TO OPTIMIZE PERIOPERATIVE PAIN MANAGEMENT AFTER TOTAL KNEE ARTHROPLASTY
Kekić, Adrijana, Erickson, Colby , Grilli, Christopher, Seamans, David P. , Upjohn, David P., Hentz, Joseph G. , Kraus, Molly B. , Bingham, Joshua S. , Clarke, Henry D. , Spangehl, Mark J.

Orthopaedic Proceedings | August 7, 2023 | Volume: 105-B | Issue: SUPP_13 | Pages: 54-54

10.1302/1358-992x.2023.13.054 Get It

AbstractIntroductionAdverse reactions to pain medication and pain can delay discharge after outpatient knee arthroplasty (TKA). Pharmacogenomics is an emerging tool that might help reduce adverse events by tailoring medication use based on known genetic variations in the CYP genes determining drug metabolism. This study was undertaken to evaluate whether pre-operative pharmacogenomic testing could optimize peri-operative pain management in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA).MethodsThis prospective, randomized study was performed in adults undergoing primary TKA. Patients in the experimental group underwent pre-operative pharmacogenomic evaluation and medication adjustments. Medications were not optimized for control patients. The Overall Benefit of Analgesic Score (OBAS) at 24 hours post-op was the primary outcome. Postoperative pain scores (VAS scale), total opioid use, time in recovery, and time to discharge were also compared.Results76 patients enrolled. 93% of patients had a poor-intermediate phenotype for at least one of four CYP genes. OBAS did not differ significantly between the two groups (4.2 control vs. 4.7 experimental; 95% CI −1.1 to 2.1) and was below the minimum clinically important difference of 2.0 points. Furthermore, there were no differences in any OBAS subscale including pain, satisfaction, or nausea. There were no differences in time in the recovery area or to discharge from hospital, or narcotic use.ConclusionsDespite many patients having a poor-intermediate phenotype for a CYP gene, pharmacogenomic testing prior to TKA and medication adjustment did not improve anesthesia or pain management outcomes, time to discharge or mean total opioid use after surgery.
Leveraging Advanced Practice Providers in an Otolaryngology Practice
Sharma, Nita , Upjohn, David, Donald, Carrlene B., Zoske, Katie E., Aldridge, Chelsea L., Donald, Carrlene, Lal, Devyani

Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery | November 17, 2020 | Volume: 164 | Issue: 5 | Pages: 959-963

10.1177/0194599820972924 | PMID 33201762 Get It

ObjectiveAdvanced practice providers (APPs) may see patients independently or assist in “collaborative” clinics in otolaryngology practices. Our goal was to redesign the collaborative physician‐APP clinic model to increase patient access, maintain financial sustainability, and optimize patient and staff experience.MethodsThe study was performed in a tertiary care academic rhinology clinic seeing adult patients. The DMAIC framework (define, measure, analyze, improve, control) was used to develop the new model. The process shift between old and new models was analyzed by utilizing a statistical process control chart. Patient and staff surveys were tracked.ResultsThe collaborative physician‐APP model was redesigned into 2 parallel and independently run (“concurrent”) physician and APP clinics. Patient access increased by 38.9% from a mean of 17.9 patients per collaborative clinic (n = 15 days, 269 patients) to 29.3 patients per concurrent clinic (n = 12 days, 352 patients). Medicare reimbursement rate modeling showed the collaborative clinic to operate at a loss of $1341.51 per day, while the concurrent clinic model operated at a $1309.88 gain (200% positive change). Patient and staff experience tracked positively.DiscussionOtolaryngology clinics can become overwhelmed by the volume of empaneled established patients. Traditional collaborative physician‐APP clinics see the same panel of patients together. However, these can be successfully redesigned to a concurrent model. Concurrent clinics improve patient access and provider satisfaction while maintaining patient satisfaction and fiscal performance.Implications for PracticeLeveraging an experienced APP to run a parallel and independent clinic alongside the physician (concurrent clinic model) may improve patient access, financial metrics, and patient/staff experience.
Stroke-attributable nursing home use
Leibson, C. L. , Ransom, Jeanine E. , Brown, Robert D., O’Fallon, W. Michael, Hass, Steven , Whisnant, Jack P.

Neurology | May 13, 2012 | Volume: 51 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 163-168

10.1212/wnl.51.1.163 | PMID 9674797 Get It

Accuracy of hospital discharge abstracts for identifying stroke.
Leibson, C. L. , Naessens, James M. , Brown, Robert D. , Whisnant, Jack P.

Stroke | June 17, 2011 | Volume: 25 | Issue: 12 | Pages: 2348-2355

10.1161/01.str.25.12.2348 | PMID 7974572 Get It

Much of the available data on stroke occurrence, service use, and cost of care originated with hospital discharge abstracts. This article uses the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate the sensitivity and positive predictive value of hospital discharge abstracts for incident stroke. The Rochester Stroke Registry was used to identify all confirmed first strokes (hospitalized and nonhospitalized) among Rochester residents for 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 (n = 364). The sensitivity of discharge abstracts was estimated by following these individuals for 12 months after stroke to determine the proportion assigned a discharge diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease (International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes 430 through 438.9). The positive predictive value of discharge abstracts was assessed by identifying all hospitalizations of Rochester residents with an ICD code of 430-438.9 in 1970, 1980, and 1989 (n = 377). Events were categorized as incident stroke, recurrent stroke, stroke sequelae, or nonstroke after review of the complete community-based medical record by a neurologist. Only 86% (n = 313) of all first-stroke patients in 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 were hospitalized. Of hospitalized patients, only 76% were assigned a principal discharge diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Fatal strokes and those occurring during a hospitalization were less likely to be identified. Among all hospitalizations of Rochester residents in 1970, 1980, and 1989, there were 377 with a principal diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Less than half (n = 177) were determined by the neurologist to be incident stroke; only 60% (n = 225) were either incident or recurrent stroke. Comparison of alternative approaches showed the validity of discharge abstracts was enhanced by increasing the number of diagnoses and excluding codes with poor positive predictive value. This study provides previously unavailable estimates of the sensitivity of stroke-coded hospitalizations for a US community. A model for improving the sensitivity and positive predictive value of discharge abstracts is presented.
Incidence and prevalence of CIDP and the association of diabetes mellitus
Laughlin, Ruple S. , Dyck, P. James B. , Melton, L. Joseph, Leibson, C. L. , Ransom, J.

Neurology | June 29, 2009 | Volume: 73 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 39-45

10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181aaea47 | PMID 19564582 Get It

Trends in persistent proteinuria in adult-onset diabetes: a population-based study.
Larson, Timothy S., Santanello, Nancy C., Shahinfar, S. , O’Brien, Peter C. , Melton, L. Joseph , Leibson, C. L. , Palumbo, Pasquale J

Diabetes Care | March 5, 2007 | Volume: 23 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 51-56

10.2337/diacare.23.1.51 | PMID 10857968 Get It

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes (age &gt; or =40 years). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The complete community-based medical records of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents with a diagnosis of diabetes or diabetes-like condition from 1945 through 1989 were reviewed to determine whether they met National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) criteria. All confirmed diabetes cases residing in Rochester on 1 January 1970 (n = 446), 1980 (n = 647), and/or 1990 (n = 940) were identified. The medical records of these prevalence cases were reviewed from the time of the first laboratory urinalysis value to the last visit, death, or 1 April 1992 (whichever came first) for evidence of persistent proteinuria (two consecutive urinalyses positive for protein, with no subsequent negative values). Similarly, the medical records of all 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases (n = 1,252) were reviewed to investigate temporal changes in 1) the likelihood of having persistent proteinuria before the date NDDG criteria was met, i.e., baseline; 2) the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline; and 3) the relative risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. RESULTS: The proportion of diabetes prevalence cases with persistent proteinuria on or before the prevalence date declined from 20% in 1970 to 11% in 1980 and 8% in 1990. Among the 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases, 77 (6%) had persistent proteinuria on or before baseline; the adjusted odds declined by 50% with each 10-year increase in baseline calendar year (P&lt;0.001). Among individuals free of persistent proteinuria at baseline, 136 subsequently developed persistent proteinuria; the estimated 20-year cumulative incidence was 41% (95% CI 31-59); the adjusted risk did not differ as a function of baseline calendar year. Survival of individuals with persistent proteinuria relative to those without was reduced but did not differ by baseline calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes in Rochester, Minnesota, declined 60% between 1970 and 1990. The decline appears because of a decrease in the proportion of diabetes incidence cases with persistent proteinuria before baseline rather than secular declines in the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline or secular increases in the risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. Similarity over time in age and fasting glucose at baseline, and at prevalence dates, is evidence that earlier detection of diabetes is not the sole explanation for the decline.