Leibson, C. L.

Much of the available data on stroke occurrence, service use, and cost of care originated with hospital discharge abstracts. This article uses the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate the sensitivity and positive predictive value of hospital discharge abstracts for incident stroke. The Rochester Stroke Registry was used to identify all confirmed first strokes (hospitalized and nonhospitalized) among Rochester residents for 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 (n = 364). The sensitivity of discharge abstracts was estimated by following these individuals for 12 months after stroke to determine the proportion assigned a discharge diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease (International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes 430 through 438.9). The positive predictive value of discharge abstracts was assessed by identifying all hospitalizations of Rochester residents with an ICD code of 430-438.9 in 1970, 1980, and 1989 (n = 377). Events were categorized as incident stroke, recurrent stroke, stroke sequelae, or nonstroke after review of the complete community-based medical record by a neurologist. Only 86% (n = 313) of all first-stroke patients in 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 were hospitalized. Of hospitalized patients, only 76% were assigned a principal discharge diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Fatal strokes and those occurring during a hospitalization were less likely to be identified. Among all hospitalizations of Rochester residents in 1970, 1980, and 1989, there were 377 with a principal diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Less than half (n = 177) were determined by the neurologist to be incident stroke; only 60% (n = 225) were either incident or recurrent stroke. Comparison of alternative approaches showed the validity of discharge abstracts was enhanced by increasing the number of diagnoses and excluding codes with poor positive predictive value. This study provides previously unavailable estimates of the sensitivity of stroke-coded hospitalizations for a US community. A model for improving the sensitivity and positive predictive value of discharge abstracts is presented.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes (age > or =40 years). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The complete community-based medical records of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents with a diagnosis of diabetes or diabetes-like condition from 1945 through 1989 were reviewed to determine whether they met National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) criteria. All confirmed diabetes cases residing in Rochester on 1 January 1970 (n = 446), 1980 (n = 647), and/or 1990 (n = 940) were identified. The medical records of these prevalence cases were reviewed from the time of the first laboratory urinalysis value to the last visit, death, or 1 April 1992 (whichever came first) for evidence of persistent proteinuria (two consecutive urinalyses positive for protein, with no subsequent negative values). Similarly, the medical records of all 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases (n = 1,252) were reviewed to investigate temporal changes in 1) the likelihood of having persistent proteinuria before the date NDDG criteria was met, i.e., baseline; 2) the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline; and 3) the relative risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. RESULTS: The proportion of diabetes prevalence cases with persistent proteinuria on or before the prevalence date declined from 20% in 1970 to 11% in 1980 and 8% in 1990. Among the 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases, 77 (6%) had persistent proteinuria on or before baseline; the adjusted odds declined by 50% with each 10-year increase in baseline calendar year (P<0.001). Among individuals free of persistent proteinuria at baseline, 136 subsequently developed persistent proteinuria; the estimated 20-year cumulative incidence was 41% (95% CI 31-59); the adjusted risk did not differ as a function of baseline calendar year. Survival of individuals with persistent proteinuria relative to those without was reduced but did not differ by baseline calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes in Rochester, Minnesota, declined 60% between 1970 and 1990. The decline appears because of a decrease in the proportion of diabetes incidence cases with persistent proteinuria before baseline rather than secular declines in the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline or secular increases in the risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. Similarity over time in age and fasting glucose at baseline, and at prevalence dates, is evidence that earlier detection of diabetes is not the sole explanation for the decline.

Background: The relative risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with diabetes is greater for women than men, and diabetic women did not experience temporal declines in CVD mortality observed for the general population and diabetic men. Objective: To examine sex differences in CVD risk factors for persons with diabetes over time. Design: Population-based historical cohort study. Methods: The provider-linked medical records of all Rochester, MN, residents assigned a clinical diagnosis of diabetes were reviewed to confirm case status and assign diagnosis date. Data on fasting glucose, obesity, persistent proteinuria, smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were obtained at diagnosis for confirmed incidence cases. Results: There were 1330 diabetes cases 1970–1989. Compared to men, women at diagnosis were older and more likely hypertensive, had similar levels of fasting glucose and persistent proteinuria, and less likely to smoke. Among persons diagnosed at younger ages, women were more likely than men to be obese. Comparison with published data for the Rochester population revealed the excess obesity and hypertension associated with diabetes were highest for women < age 55 y. Temporal trends in CVD risk factors did not differ between diabetic men and women.