Moll, Matthew

Abstract Rationale Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by chronic progressive pulmonary fibrosis and high mortality. Genetic markers, summarized into a polygenic risk score (PRS), associate with IPF in well-phenotyped research cohorts. Objectives To evaluate the performance of the PRS using real-world data from routinely captured electronic healthcare records. Methods We conducted an observational study evaluating the association of a PRS for IPF with electronic healthcare record diagnosis of IPF as well as lung transplant-free survival in four independent cohorts; the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB), Mayo Clinic Biobank (MCBB), Mayo Clinic Tapestry Cohort (Tapestry), and U.K. Biobank (UKBB). We used multivariable logistic regression and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, gender, and principal components of ancestry. The cohorts then underwent fixed and random effects meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results Of 37,709; 44,195; 43,202; and 447,422 participants from MGBB, MCBB, Tapestry and UKBB respectively, 1,015 (2.7%) 2,879 (6.5%), 1,310 (3.0%), and 2,742 (0.6%) participants had an IPF diagnosis. Meta-analysis demonstrated a high-risk PRS associated with IPF diagnosis, OR 2.88 (95%CI 2.41-3.44) compared to all other individuals. A high-risk PRS also associated with the composite endpoint of mortality or lung transplant among those with an IPF diagnosis, HR 1.23(95%CI 1.11-1.35) compared to all other individuals. Conclusions A PRS can identify those at risk for an IPF diagnosis and mortality in biobank-scale data, which may have implications for clinical decisions. Further work is necessary to evaluate the utility of adding genetics in clinical settings.

Abstract Rationale To construct multi-trait polygenic scores (PRS) predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and exacerbations, validate their performance in diverse cohorts, and identify PRS-related proteins for potential therapeutic targeting. Methods PRSmix+, a multi-trait PRS framework, is used to train a composite PRS (PRSmulti) in COPDGene non-Hispanic white participants (n = 6,647). Associations of PRSmulti with COPD status (GOLD 2-4 vs. GOLD 0 or ICD) and exacerbation frequency were tested in COPDGene African American (n = 2,466), ECLIPSE (n = 1,858), MassGeneral Brigham Biobank (n = 15,152), and All of Us (n = 118,566). Protein prediction models were applied to GWAS summary statistics from traits contributing to PRSmulti and were validated with proteomic data in COPDGene (n = 5,173) and UK Biobank (n = 5,012). Results PRSmix+ selected 7 traits for PRSmulti. In multivariable models, PRSmulti was associated with COPD status (meta-analysis random effects (RE) OR 1.58 [95% CI: 1.28-1.94]) and exacerbation frequency (meta-analysis RE beta 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11-0.31]), with higher effect sizes observed in smoking-enriched cohorts. PRSmulti outperformed traditional single-trait PRS in all tested cohorts. Using protein prediction models, we identified 73 proteins associated with the PRS that were also validated with measured protein levels in COPDGene and UK biobank. Of these proteins, 25 were linked to approved or investigational drugs. Notable targets include AGER (RAGE), IL1RL1, and SCARF2, all implicated in COPD pathogenesis and exacerbations. Conclusions Multi-trait PRS improves prediction of COPD and exacerbation risk. Integration with proteomic data identifies druggable protein targets, offering a promising avenue for precision medicine in COPD management. Trial registration. COPDGene: NCT00608764; ECLIPSE: NCT00292552. This abstract is funded by: NIH and the COPD Foundation

Abstract RATIONALE: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. We previously published the polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) which uses the cumulative effect of predicted gene expression to construct genetic predictors for complex diseases, and we demonstrated the value of PTRS for COPD built on Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) Lung tissue with significantly improved cross-ancestry portability. However, the postmortem collection and lack of lung disease status on GTEx samples likely affect results. We hypothesized that the performance of PTRS will be improved by using disease-relevant expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) to construct the score. Here, we aimed to improve performance of PTRS by leveraging disease-relevant eQTLs. METHODS: We constructed two transcriptome prediction models, Elastic Net (EN) and Prediction Using Models Informed by Chromatin conformation and Epigenomics (PUMICE), using TOPMed lung RNA-seq data from the Lung Tissue Research Consortium (LTRC), which included COPD patients undergoing lung surgery. We compared their performance with two published models built on RNA-seq from GTEx Lung tissue, GTEx-EN and GTEx-PUMICE. We first integrated each of four transcriptome models with multi-ancestry GWAS of FEV1/FVC ratio (Shrine et al. 2023) to generate transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) results, which produced trait-associated genes. Pathway analysis was then conducted on significant TWAS genes. Finally, the PTRS was computed on TWAS genes that were included in the top 20 significantly enriched pathways. We tested performance of PTRS in race-stratified analysis for moderate-to-severe and severe COPD in COPDGene. RESULTS: Our models produced more significant TWAS genes (FDR<0.05) and had more overlaps with genes identified for FEV1/FVC ratio from Shrine et al. 2023 compared to two GTEx models (Fig. A). Additionally, our models had significantly higher AUC for predicting both moderate-to-severe and severe COPD in race-stratified analysis. The mean AUC from LTRC-EN for predicting severe COPD was 0.57 and 0.55 respectively for EUR and AFA, which was significantly higher than mean AUC of 0.54 and 0.51 from GTEx-EN (Delong p-value=8.15x10-10 for EUR and 1.42x10-3 for AFA) (Fig. B). Similarly, the PTRS derived from our models produced higher Odds Ratios (OR) per standard deviation. The mean OR from LTRC-PUMICE for moderate-to-severe COPD was 1.25 and 1.18 respectively for EUR and AFA, while it was 1.17 and 1.12 from GTEx-PUMICE (Fig. C). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the value of leveraging disease-relevant RNA-seq to construct transcriptome prediction models and their improvement on identifying lung function genes and predicting COPD across ancestries.

ImportanceChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often undiagnosed. Although genetic risk plays a significant role in COPD susceptibility, its utility in guiding spirometry testing and identifying undiagnosed cases is unclear.ObjectiveTo determine whether a COPD polygenic risk score (PRS) enhances the identification of undiagnosed COPD beyond a case-finding questionnaire (eg, the Lung Function Questionnaire) using conventional risk factors and respiratory symptoms.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional analysis of participants 35 years or older who reported no history of physician-diagnosed COPD was conducted using data from 2 observational studies: the community-based Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and the COPD-enriched Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study.ExposuresModified Lung Function Questionnaire (mLFQ) scores and COPD PRS.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was spirometry-defined moderate to severe COPD (forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] <0.7 and FEV1 [percent predicted] <80%). The performance of logistic models was assessed using the PRS, mLFQ score, and PRS plus mLFQ score for predicting spirometry-defined COPD.ResultsAmong 3385 FHS participants (median age, 52.0 years; 45.9% male) and 4095 COPDGene participants (median age, 56.8 years; 55.5% male) who reported no history of COPD, 160 (4.7%) FHS and 775 (18.9%) COPDGene participants had spirometry-defined COPD. Adding the PRS to the mLFQ score significantly improved the area under the curve from 0.78 to 0.84 (P < .001) in FHS, 0.69 to 0.72 (P = .04) in COPDGene non-Hispanic African American, and 0.75 to 0.78 (P < .001) in COPDGene non-Hispanic White participants. At a risk threshold for spirometry referral of 10%, the addition of the PRS to the mLFQ score correctly reclassified 13.8% (95% CI, 6.6%-21.0%) of COPD cases in FHS, but not in COPDGene.Conclusions and RelevanceA COPD PRS enhances the identification of undiagnosed COPD beyond a conventional case-finding approach in the general population. Further research is needed to assess its impact on COPD diagnosis and outcomes.

Abstract Rationale In addition to rare genetic variants and the MUC5B locus, common genetic variants contribute to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) risk. The predictive power of common variants outside the MUC5B locus for IPF and interstitial lung abnormalities (ILAs) is unknown. Objectives We tested the predictive value of IPF polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with and without the MUC5B region on IPF, ILA, and ILA progression. Methods We developed PRSs that included (PRS-M5B) and excluded (PRS-NO-M5B) the MUC5B region (500-kb window around rs35705950-T) using an IPF genome-wide association study. We assessed PRS associations with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metrics for IPF, ILA, and ILA progression. Measurements and Main Results We included 14,650 participants (1,970 IPF; 1,068 ILA) from six multi-ancestry population-based and case–control cohorts. In cases excluded from genome-wide association study, the PRS-M5B (odds ratio [OR] per SD of the score, 3.1; P = 7.1 × 10−95) and PRS-NO-M5B (OR per SD, 2.8; P = 2.5 × 10−87) were associated with IPF. Participants in the top PRS-NO-M5B quintile had ∼sevenfold odds for IPF compared with those in the first quintile. A clinical model predicted IPF (AUC, 0.61); rs35705950-T and PRS-NO-M5B demonstrated higher AUCs (0.73 and 0.7, respectively), and adding both genetic predictors to a clinical model yielded the highest performance (AUC, 0.81). The PRS-NO-M5B was associated with ILA (OR, 1.25) and ILA progression (OR, 1.16) in European ancestry participants. Conclusions A common genetic variant risk score complements the MUC5B variant to identify individuals at high risk of interstitial lung abnormalities and pulmonary fibrosis.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease with marked metabolic disturbance. Previous studies have shown the association between single metabolites and lung function for COPD, but whether a combination of metabolites could predict phenotype is unknown. We developed metabolomic severity scores using plasma metabolomics from the Metabolon platform from two US cohorts of ever-smokers: the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) (n = 648; training/testing cohort; 72% non-Hispanic, white; average age 63 years) and the COPDGene Study (n = 1120; validation cohort; 92% non-Hispanic, white; average age 67 years). Separate adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) models were used to model forced expiratory volume at one second (FEV1) and MESA-adjusted lung density using 762 metabolites common between studies. Metabolite coefficients selected by the adaLASSO procedure were used to create a metabolomic severity score (metSS) for each outcome. A total of 132 metabolites were selected to create a metSS for FEV1. The metSS-only models explained 64.8% and 31.7% of the variability in FEV1 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For MESA-adjusted lung density, 129 metabolites were selected, and metSS-only models explained 59.0% of the variability in the training cohort and 17.4% in the validation cohort. Regression models including both clinical covariates and the metSS explained more variability than either the clinical covariate or metSS-only models (53.4% vs. 46.4% and 31.6%) in the validation dataset. The metabolomic pathways for arginine biosynthesis; aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis; and glycine, serine, and threonine pathway were enriched by adaLASSO metabolites for FEV1. This is the first demonstration of a respiratory metabolomic severity score, which shows how a metSS can add explanation of variance to clinical predictors of FEV1 and MESA-adjusted lung density. The advantage of a comprehensive metSS is that it explains more disease than individual metabolites and can account for substantial collinearity among classes of metabolites. Future studies should be performed to determine whether metSSs are similar in younger, and more racially and ethnically diverse populations as well as whether a metabolomic severity score can predict disease development in individuals who do not yet have COPD.

Abstract Objectives To investigate the associations of the common MUC5B promoter variant with timing of RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) and RA onset. Methods We identified patients with RA meeting 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria and available genotype information in the Mass General Brigham Biobank, a multihospital biospecimen and clinical data collection research study. We determined RA-ILD presence by reviewing all RA patients who had CT imaging, lung biopsy or autopsy results. We determined the dates of RA and RA-ILD diagnoses by manual records review. We examined the associations of the MUC5B promoter variant (G>T at rs35705950) with RA-ILD, RA-ILD occurring before or within 2 years of RA diagnosis and RA diagnosis at age >55 years. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for each outcome by MUC5B promoter variant status, adjusting for potential confounders including genetic ancestry and smoking. Results We identified 1005 RA patients with available genotype data for rs35705950 (mean age 45 years, 79% female, 81% European ancestry). The MUC5B promoter variant was present in 155 (15.4%) and was associated with RA-ILD [multivariable OR 3.34 (95% CI 1.97, 5.60)], RA-ILD before or within 2 years of RA diagnosis [OR 4.01 (95% CI 1.78, 8.80)] and RA onset after age 55 years [OR 1.52 (95% CI 1.08, 2.12)]. Conclusions The common MUC5B promoter variant was associated with RA-ILD onset earlier in the RA disease course and older age of RA onset. These findings suggest that the MUC5B promoter variant may impact RA-ILD risk early in the RA disease course, particularly in patients with older-onset RA.

ObjectiveTo investigate the independent relationship of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to the type and severity of pulmonary patterns on spirometry compared to the pulmonary patterns in general population controls.MethodsIn this cross‐sectional study, we investigated the association of RA with pulmonary function measures on spirometry among subjects in the UK Biobank who underwent spirometry for research purposes. RA cases were identified based on self‐report and current disease‐modifying antirheumatic drug/glucocorticoid use. Controls were subjects without RA from the general population. Outcome measures included continuous forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted (FEV1%) and forced vital capacity percent predicted (FVC%), type of spirometric pattern (restrictive or obstructive), and severity of the restrictive or obstructive pattern. We used multivariable regression to estimate the effects in RA cases compared to the effects in controls, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking status/pack‐years.ResultsAmong 350,776 analyzed subjects who underwent spirometry (mean age 56.3 years; 55.8% female; 45.5% ever smokers), we identified 2,008 cases of treated RA. In multivariable analyses, RA was associated with lower FEV1% (β = –2.93 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) –3.63, –2.24]), FVC% (β = –2.08 [95% CI –2.72, –1.45]), and FEV1/FVC (β = –0.008 [95% CI –0.010, –0.005]) compared to controls. RA was additionally associated with restrictive patterns (odds ratio [OR] 1.36 [95% CI 1.21, 1.52]) and obstructive patterns (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.07, 1.37]) independent of confounders, and was most strongly associated with severe restrictive and obstructive patterns.ConclusionRA is associated with increased odds of restrictive and obstructive patterns, and this relationship is not explained by confounders, including smoking status. In addition to restrictive lung disease, clinicians should also be aware that airway obstruction may be a pulmonary manifestation of RA.