Olson, JA

Abstract Rationale Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by chronic progressive pulmonary fibrosis and high mortality. Genetic markers, summarized into a polygenic risk score (PRS), associate with IPF in well-phenotyped research cohorts. Objectives To evaluate the performance of the PRS using real-world data from routinely captured electronic healthcare records. Methods We conducted an observational study evaluating the association of a PRS for IPF with electronic healthcare record diagnosis of IPF as well as lung transplant-free survival in four independent cohorts; the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB), Mayo Clinic Biobank (MCBB), Mayo Clinic Tapestry Cohort (Tapestry), and U.K. Biobank (UKBB). We used multivariable logistic regression and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, gender, and principal components of ancestry. The cohorts then underwent fixed and random effects meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results Of 37,709; 44,195; 43,202; and 447,422 participants from MGBB, MCBB, Tapestry and UKBB respectively, 1,015 (2.7%) 2,879 (6.5%), 1,310 (3.0%), and 2,742 (0.6%) participants had an IPF diagnosis. Meta-analysis demonstrated a high-risk PRS associated with IPF diagnosis, OR 2.88 (95%CI 2.41-3.44) compared to all other individuals. A high-risk PRS also associated with the composite endpoint of mortality or lung transplant among those with an IPF diagnosis, HR 1.23(95%CI 1.11-1.35) compared to all other individuals. Conclusions A PRS can identify those at risk for an IPF diagnosis and mortality in biobank-scale data, which may have implications for clinical decisions. Further work is necessary to evaluate the utility of adding genetics in clinical settings.

Abstract Background Artificial intelligence (AI)–based, mammography breast cancer risk prediction models show improved discriminatory accuracy relative to clinical risk models. However, data on their calibration are limited. This study compared model performance of 3 clinical breast cancer risk models: Gail, Tyrer–Cuzick v8, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium v3 with the MIRAI AI-risk model. Methods Digital mammograms were ascertained from a screening mammography cohort of 12 308 women within the Mayo Clinic Biobank with 250 incident breast cancers (176 invasive) within 5 years. We predicted 5-year breast cancer risk, estimated discriminatory accuracy (C-index), and calibration (observed-to-expected ratio) of both overall and invasive breast cancer and compared estimates using bootstrapping approaches. Results MIRAI demonstrated similar or improved discriminatory accuracy of overall breast cancer (C-index = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.68 to 0.74) and invasive breast cancer (C-index = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.75) compared with clinical models (overall breast cancer: C-index = 0.59-0.68; invasive breast cancer: C-index = 0.60-0.68). MIRAI’s calibration for risk of overall breast cancer (observed-to-expected ratio = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.08) was improved compared with Gail (observed-to-expected ratio = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.38) and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (observed-to-expected ratio = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.22 to 1.56) but similar to TC with volumetric percent density and polygenic risk score (observed-to-expected ratio = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.13). However, for low-risk women (approximately 50%), MIRAI overestimated risk of overall breast cancer. MIRAI also overestimated risk of invasive breast cancer across the risk spectrum (observed-to-expected ratio = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58 to 0.78), whereas clinical models had good calibration (observed-to-expected ratio = 0.86–0.99). Conclusion MIRAI demonstrated stronger discriminatory accuracy than clinical models for 5-year overall and invasive breast cancer risk prediction but overestimated risk for both breast cancer endpoints. AI-based risk models should consider discriminatory accuracy and calibration for invasive cancer before implementation.

Abstract Background: Black race is associated with worse outcomes in localized hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer in population-based and in clinical trial cohorts, whether using self-identified race (Albain et al. JNCI 2009 [PMID: 19584328; Sparano et al. JNCI 2012 [PMID: 22250182) or genetically-identified race (Schneider et al. J Precision Oncol 2017 [PMID: 29333527]). This disparity persists after adjustment for treatment delivery parameters (Hershman et al. JCO 2009 [PMID:19307504]). We evaluated clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment delivered and clinical outcomes in the Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment (TAILORx) by race and ethnicity (Sparano et al. NEJM 2018 [PMID: 29860917]). Methods: The analysis included 9719 evaluable TAILORx participants. The association between clinical outcomes and race (white, black, Asian, other/unknown) and ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic) was examined, including invasive disease-free survival (iDFS), distant relapse-free interval (DRFI), relapse-free interval (RFI), and overall survival (OS). Proportional hazards models were fit including age (5 categories), tumor size (>2 cm vs. <=2 cm), histologic grade (high vs. medium vs. low vs. unknown), continuous recurrence score (RS), race, and ethnicity in the overall population and randomized treatment arms in the RS 11-25 cohort. Results: The study population included 8189 (84%) whites, 693 (7%) blacks, 405 (4%) Asians, and 432 (4%) with other/unknown race. Regarding ethnicity, 7635 (79%) were non-Hispanic, 889 (9%) Hispanic, and 1195 (12%) unknown. There was no significant difference in RS distribution (p=0.22) in blacks compared with whites, or in median (17 vs. 17) or mean RS (19.1 vs. 18.2). There was likewise no difference in Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic ethnicity for RS distribution (p=0.72) or median (17 vs. 17) or mean RS (18.5 vs. 18.0). Black race (39% vs. 30%) and Hispanic ethnicity (39% vs. 30%) were both associated with younger age (</=50 years) at diagnosis. The use and type of adjuvant chemotherapy and endocrine therapy, and duration of endocrine therapy, were similar in black (vs. white) and Hispanic (vs. non-Hispanic) populations. In proportional hazards models, black race (compared with white race) was associated with worse clinical outcomes in the entire population and in those with a RS 11-25 (see table). Hispanic ethnicity was generally associated with better outcomes (compared with non-Hispanic ethnicity). For the cohort with a RS of 11-25, there was no evidence for chemotherapy benefit for any racial or ethnic group. Race (black vs.white) and clinical outcomes in proportional hazards modelsClinical endpointEntire Population (N=693 black) Hazard ratio for eventRS 11-25 (N=471 black) Hazard ratio for eveniDFS1.33 (p=0.005)1.49 (p=0.001)DRFI1.21 (p=0.28)1.60 (p=0.02)RFI1.39 (p=0.02)1.80 (p<0.001)OS1.52 (p=0.005)1.67 (p=0.003 Conclusions: In patients eligible and selected for participation in TAILORx, black women had worse clinical outcomes despite similar 21-gene assay RS results and comparable systemic therapy. This adds to an emerging body of evidence suggesting a biologic basis or other factors contributing to racial disparities in HR-positive breast cancer that requires further evaluation. Citation Format: Albain K, Gray RJ, Sparano JA, Makower DF, Pritchard KI, Hayes DF, Geyer, Jr. CE, Dees EC, Goetz MP, Olson, Jr. JA, Lively T, Badve SS, Saphner TJ, Wagner LI, Whelan TJ, Ellis MJ, Paik S, Wood WC, Ravdin PM, Keane MM, Gomez HL, Reddy PS, Goggins TF, Mayer IA, Brufsky AM, Toppmeyer DL, Kaklamani VG, Berenberg JL, Abrams J, Sledge, Jr. GW. Race, ethnicity and clinical outcomes in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative, node-negative breast cancer: results from the TAILORx trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr GS4-07.

Abstract Estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer is treated with endocrine therapy but intrinsic resistance occurs in ˜1/3 of patients and acquired resistance in ˜1/5 of the remainder. While many resistance mechanisms have been explored, clinical trials testing associated therapeutics have had mixed outcomes. Understanding mechanisms of resistance and finding therapeutic strategies to target them, therefore, remain important challenges. In this study we discover an intriguing link between mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, specifically of the MutL complex (MLH1/3, PMS1/2), and endocrine therapy resistance in ER+ disease. We find a direct role for MutL loss in inducing endocrine therapy resistance in vitro and in vivo by knocking down multiple MutL genes using CRISPR and stable shRNA approaches validated using standard rescue experiments. We identify the underlying mechanism: MutL deficiency in ER+ breast cancer abrogates Chk2-mediated feedback inhibition of CDK4/6 that appears necessary for endocrine therapy responsiveness. Consequently, pharmacological targeting of CDK4/6 in vitro and in vivo significantly inhibits growth of endocrine therapy resistant MutL-deficient ER+ breast cancer cells. These results are corroborated by data from a neoadjuvant clinical trial demonstrating that cell cycle regulation of MutL-mutant tumors is estrogen-independent but CDK4/6 dependent. The results of this study provide important biological and clinically relevant insights. 1) a novel role for MMR in endocrine therapy resistance 2) A mechanism underlying the effectiveness of CDK4/6 inhibitors in some de novo endocrine therapy resistant tumors. While there are currently no biomarkers to guide the use of CDK4/6 inhibitors for ER+ breast cancer, markers of MMR dysregulation could identify patients in whom CDK4/6 inhibition may, most effectively, prevent disease recurrence. Citation Format: Haricharan S, Punturi N, Singh P, Holloway KR, Anurag M, Schmelz J, Schmidt C, Lei JT, Suman V, Hunt K, Olson Jr JA, Hoog J, Li S, Huang S, Edwards DP, Kavuri SM, Bainbridge MN, Ma CX, Ellis MJ. Loss of mismatch repair predicts resistance to endocrine therapy and sensitivity to CDK4/6 inhibitors in ER+ breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-04-01.

Abstract Estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer accounts for the majority of breast cancers diagnosed worldwide but fortunately, outcomes are markedly improved by pharmacological interventions that interrupt ER function. Unfortunately, suppression of relapse risk from early stage disease with endocrine therapy (anti-estrogens or aromatase inhibitors) is only ∼50%, and for advanced disease, pan endocrine therapy resistance is almost inevitable. While many mechanisms for intrinsic and acquired endocrine resistance have been explored, links between defects in DNA repair, the fundamental drivers of cancer pathogenesis, and endocrine therapy resistance have been understudied. Here we link mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency to poor clinical outcomes in ER+ breast cancer using whole exome DNA sequencing data and mRNA expression analysis. We subsequently demonstrate that MMR deficiency bypasses ER dependent cell cycle regulation through disruption of Chk2/p21-mediated feedback inhibition of CDK4 in breast cancer cell lines and tumor samples, as well as through correlations with human clinical data. We also show that pharmacological targeting of CDK4 significantly inhibits growth of MMR-deficient ER+ breast cancer cells in vitro and in vivo. This mechanism provides a new explanation for why endocrine therapy resistant ER+ breast cancers can respond to CDK inhibition and suggests that primary tumors exhibiting MMR deficiency are good candidates for adjuvant CDK4 inhibitor treatment. Citation Format: Haricharan S, Schmelz J, Schmidt C, Singh P, Holloway K, Anurag M, Suman V, Olson JA, Hunt K, Bainbridge MN, Ellis MJ. Mismatch repair deficiency induces endocrine therapy resistance in breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD2-06.

Abstract Background: The Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment (TAILORx) is a prospective trial evaluating the role of endocrine therapy or chemoendocrine therapy in patients 18-75 years of age with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, a primary tumor between 0.6-5.0 cm, and negative axillary nodes, a population for whom chemotherapy is typically recommended or least considered based on National Comprehensive Cancer Center Network (NCCN) guidelines. Methods: The trial was designed to demonstrate non-inferiority of endocrine therapy compared with chemoendocrine therapy in the randomized group with an Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) of 11-25. Patients with a low RS < 11 were assigned to endocrine therapy alone and with a high RS > 25 assigned to chemoendocrine therapy, and both groups were followed in a prospective registry. The definition of an intermediate RS differed in this trial (RS 11-25) from the original reports (RS 18-30) in order to reduce the risk of chemotherapy undertreatment in patients with a mid-range or low RS (Sparano & Paik. J Clin Oncol 2008; 26:721-728). Results: The trial enrolled 10,273 patients between April 2006 and October 2010, of whom 6907 patients (67.2%) had a mid-range RS of 11-25, 1737 (16.9%) had a high RS > 25, and 1639 (15.9%) had a low RS of < 11. At the fourth planned interim analysis, the ECOG-ACRIN data monitoring committee recommended that the study continue as planned for the randomized group with a RS 11-25, and that the results be released to the investigators for the low risk group with a RS <11. The characteristics of the low risk registry population are as follows: age 50 or less (27%), 51-60 (35%), > 60 (39%); tumor size < 1 cm (8%), 1-2 cm (61%), > 2 cm (31%); histologic grade low (34%), intermediate (59%), high (7%); breast conservation (68%) or mastectomy (32%). Initial endocrine therapy included tamoxifen in 35%, aromatase inhibitors in 59%, ovarian function suppression in 3%, and unspecified therapy in 3%; 5 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy (1 of whom relapsed). Five-year rates (and 95% confidence intervals [CI]) for low RS group were 99.2% (98.5, 99.6%) for distant relapse free interval, 98.5% (97.7, 99.1%) for relapse-free interval, 93.7% (92.2, 94.9%) for invasive disease free survival, and 98.2% (97.3, 98.7%) for overall survival. Information regarding ER, PR, and HER2 RNA expression will be presented. Conclusions: Despite meeting guidelines for recommending or at least considering adjuvant chemotherapy based on classical clinicopathologic features, the risk of recurrence was very low at 5 years in patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative, axillary node-negative breast cancer and a low RS of < 11 treated with endocrine therapy alone without chemotherapy. Citation Format: Sparano JA, Gray RJ, Makower DF, Pritchard KI, Albain KS, Hayes DF, Geyer Jr CE, Dees EC, Perez EA, Olson Jr JA, Zujweski J, Keane MM, Gomez Moreno HL, Reddi RP, Goggins TF, Mayer IA, Brufsky AM, Toppmeyer DL, Kaklamani VG, Atkins JN, Berenberg JL, Sledge Jr GW. Prospective trial of endocrine therapy alone in patients with estrogen receptor positive, HER2-negative, node-negative breast cancer: Results of the TAILORx low risk registry. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-08-01.