Medina‐Inojosa, José R.

Background: The role of body adiposity on metabolic dysregulation in subjects with normal body mass index (BMI) is still under debate with limited population-based evidence. Hypothesis: Body adiposity measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is associated with metabolic disorders in normal-weight individuals. Methods: We evaluated a sample of adults aged 20-65 who underwent DEXA in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1999-2006 and 2011-2018. We excluded those with history of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Weighted logistic regression was performed to test the association between body fat percentage (BF%) and metabolic disorders [e.g., insulin resistance (IR), metabolic syndrome (MS), dyslipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension]. Models were adjusted for potential confounders while considering complex survey design and were further stratified by sex and BF% as tertiles in normal-weight individuals. IR was tested as a secondary analysis to evaluate the effect on the predicted risk. Results: We included 20,613 individuals (51.5% men, 65.4% non-Hispanic whites), mean age ± SE was 39.42±0.22 years, and 6,424 were normal weight by BMI and represented our study sample. The overall BF% in these subjects measured by DEXA was 28.41±0.19%. In our cohort, metabolic disorders were prevalent in 2.1% to 40.4% of patients (Table 1). Every 10-unit % increase in total BF% was associated with a higher risk for IR, MS, dyslipidemia in the normal weight BMI group (Table 1). Metabolic disorders were associated with BF% tertiles (Figure 1). IR was significantly associated with body fat across all BF% tertiles for men and highest tertiles for women (Figure 2). Conclusion(s): Less than 1/3 of subjects in a representative national sample had a normal BMI. Even in these “normal weight” subjects, increases in body adiposity are significantly associated with increased cardiometabolic disease burden.

Abstract Background Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), of which coronary artery disease (CAD) is the primary manifestation, is the leading cause of death worldwide. The AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) facilitates risk stratification and initiation of primary prevention of ASCVD, however their performance is suboptimal. Purpose We develop an artificial intelligence-based electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis (AI-ECG) algorithm to detect different stages of CAD and assessed the value of AI-ECG over PCE to predict incident myocardial infarction (MI) and survival over 3-years. Methods Using electronic health record data from approximately 7 million patients seen at over 70 hospitals and clinics across 5 states in the USA, we created independent AI-ECG models to identify elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) by computer tomography, the presence of obstructive CAD by stress test or angiography, and left ventricular regional akinesis by echocardiogram, presumed to represent prior MI. Deep structured data, AI-enabled natural language processing of unstructured data were used to ensure cohort, and physician review of labeling were used to ensure cohort accuracy. These models were ensembled into a single model that was used to assess the utility of AI-ECG for predicting new occurrence MI in PCE- and age-stratified cohorts of patient with no prior history of ASCVD, over a 3-year timeframe using Cox’s proportional hazards analysis. Results A total of 6,080 patients (15,192 ECGs) were labeled positive for CAC ≥ 300, 12,561 patients (18,915 ECGs) positive for obstructive CAD, and 10,767 patients (23,870 ECGs) positive for regional akinesis. AI-ECG for identifying elevated CACS, obstructive CAD, and regional akinesis achieved AUROCs of 0.86, 0.80, and 0.93, respectively. All AI-ECG models identified increased 3-year risk for MI and death in AI-ECG positive versus AI-ECG negative patients and subgroups with 2 or 3 positive results had stepwise increased risk (Figure A). In a 3-year survival analysis of all-comer patients, the hazard ratio for those that tested positive on 1, 2, or 3 versus 0 positive disease-specific models were 1.61 (1.53-1.69). 2.40 (2.27-2.55), 3.42 (3.21-3.65), respectively. Risk stratification was also observed in cohorts without prior ASCVD stratified by low and high PCE-derived 10-year ASCVD risk (Figure B) and in cohorts stratified by age, including under the age of 40. Conclusions AI-ECG has potential to address unmet need for accessible risk stratification in patients in whom PCE under, over, or insufficiently estimate ASCVD risk, and in whom risk assessment over periods of time shorter than 10 years is desired.

Background: The gap between electrocardiogram (ECG) artificial intelligence-derived age (ECG-Age) and chronological age (Age-Gap) predicts cardiovascular (CV) comorbidities and mortality reflecting physiologic age. Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are traumatic and harmful events that impact adulthood CV outcomes. We hypothesized that ACEs would be associated with physiologic age as determined by the Age-Gap. Methods: We applied a previously validated ECG-Age algorithm to the ECGs of 1,988 consecutive individuals aged ≥18, that within 2 years completed an ACEs questionnaire as part of psychological evaluations for weight management. The ACE questionnaire assesses 3 psychosocial domains (i) childhood abuse (psychological, physical or sexual), (ii) household dysfunction (substance abuse, mental illness, female figure treated violently, criminal behavior and parental separation/divorce) and (iii) neglect (emotional or physical) before age 18; results ranged 0 to 10 and were categorized as burden (0, 1-3, and ≥4) and presence (abuse, household dysfunction, neglect). Age-Gap was operationalized as (≤mean or > mean) positive values reflect physiological aging. Logistic regression analyses tested the association between ACE and Age-Gap. Results: Mean ± SD chronological age was 49±13 yr, ECG-Age 54±12 yr, Age-Gap 4.26±8.95 yr,75% women, average ACE 2±2, 32% experienced 0, 44% 1-3, and 24% ≥4 ACEs. Age-Gap was 1.4 years higher in those who experienced at least 1 ACE. Compared to those who didn’t experience ACE those who faced 1-3 ACE were more likely to have an Age-Gap >mean (OR 1.28 95%CI 1.57-1.04) independent of sex and the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index Fig A. Also, they were more prone to experiencing neglect and household dysfunction Fig B. Conclusions: Age-gap was associated with ACEs burden and domains, underscoring the need to identify ACEs during clinical evaluations to prevent ACEs at the individual, family, and community levels.

Introduction: We have previously shown that ECG-derived age (ECG-Age) predicts all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality, reflecting physiologic age. We hypothesized that ECG-Age minus chronological age (Age-Gap) would be associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessed by computer tomography. Methods: We developed a neural network model to predict ECG-Age using 12 lead ECGs from 399,750 training, 99,977 validation and 275,056 testing patients. We then applied the algorithm to 41,202 consecutive patients that from 1997-2020 underwent clinically indicated CAC and ECG within 1 year. Major modifiable CV risk factors were collected as part of preventive cardiology or general medical evaluations. Exclusion criteria were statin therapy, pacemakers, or history of coronary artery disease. Results: We included 41,202 subjects (68.5% males, 83.6% Caucasian), mean chronological age was 55.2±9.1 yrs and the ECG-Age was 56.01±9.3 yrs. The mean Age-Gap was -0.78±7 yrs, R 2 =0.78, p<0.0001. Mean CAC score was 140.2±532.3, and 21,483 (52%) had CAC >0. After adjustment for age and sex, those older by ECG (defined as having a positive Age-Gap) were more likely to have CAC>0 (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.34-2.37 for those with >1 but <2 SD of a positive Age-Gap; and OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.34-2.37 for those with ≥2 SD of a positive Age-Gap), while those younger by ECG were less likely to have any CAC (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.87 for those with >1 but <2 SD of a negative Age-Gap; and OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67-0.84 for those with ≥2 SD of a negative Age-Gap), respectively. This association remained significant after multivariate adjustment, Fig. A and increased with CAC burden, Fig. B , all P for trend <0.01. Conclusions: The difference between physiologic AI-ECG age and chronologic age, something likely representing rate of biological aging, is associated with presence of CAC, further supporting the hypothesis that AI-ECG age can identify people more likely to have subclinical coronary atherosclerosis.

Background: The body Mass Index (BMI) is commonly used in clinical practice to screen for obesity and resulting cardiometabolic conditions. Nonetheless, BMI has limited utility as it cannot differentiate body fat (BF). Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that BF content measured by air displacement plethysmography (Bod-Pod®) had a stronger association with prevalent hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM) and dyslipidemia (DLP) when compared to BMI. Methods: We performed a community-based cross-sectional study on adults attending an employee wellness center from January 2007-December 2011 who had had a body composition assessment with Bod-Pod®. We excluded subjects with history of myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, stroke at baseline. The prevalence of HTN, DM and DLP was assessed across quartiles of BF% and BMI categories. Their association with BF% and BMI was evaluated using linear regression models that adjusted for age, sex, and white race. Results: We included 3,052 individuals; 68 % were women, and the mean age ± SD was 42.09±12.8, BMI was 27.9±6.2; BF% 31.88±10.69, 892 (29.2%) were obese by BMI. Cardiometabolic conditions were prevalent in 496 (16.2%) with HTN, 378 (12.4%) with DM and 743 (24.4%) with DLP. While the prevalence of DM, HTN and DLP increased across BF% quartiles (all p for linearity>0.01), this was not always the case across BMI categories (p for linearity<0.05 for HTN and DLP, and 0.04 for DM) see Figure A . Elevated BF %, better identified individuals with HTN (AUC 0.766 vs 0.625; p<0.001), DM (AUC 0.643 vs. 0.568; p<0.001), DLP (AUC 0.758 vs. 0.593; p<0.001). Conclusion: BF content is better associated with a higher prevalence of HTN, DM, and DLP. Highlighting the role of body composition assessment in primary prevention. Dyslipidemia.

Introduction: Arrhythmias commonly occur during clinical exercise stress testing (EST), however there are limited data on prognostic significance, particularly differences between individuals with minor versus significant arrhythmia burden. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that significant but not minor arrhythmia burden during EST would be predictive of future all-cause mortality. Methods: Adults who underwent clinically indicated EST at Mayo Clinic Rochester between September 1993 and April 2017 were included and followed-up until March 2021 using the National Death Index to ascertain survival status. Expert clinician coding pertaining to arrhythmia burden during EST were used to group individuals (see Table 1 ). Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for known predictors of exercise-induced arrhythmias, were used to test the association of arrhythmia burden with all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 30796 individuals were included (age: 55±14yrs; female: 36%; Table 1 ). Mean follow-up was 8.8±3.6yrs, with a total of 2516 deaths. Arrhythmia during EST was associated with all-cause mortality compared with no arrhythmia (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.58-1.88; p<0.001), however significant arrhythmia showed greater association compared with minor arrhythmia (HR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.81-2.38; p<0.001). Both minor and significant arrhythmia during EST were significant predictors of all-cause mortality compared with no arrhythmia ( Figure, Table 2 ), however, after model adjustments, only significant arrhythmia was associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.21-1.63; p<0.001) ( Table 2 ). Conclusions: After multivariate adjustment, significant arrhythmia burden during EST showed a 40% increased future risk of all-cause mortality, Conversely, adjusting for age and sex attenuated the effect of minor arrhythmia burden during EST on incidence of death. These results highlight the clinical significance of arrhythmia burden during exercise testing.

Background: We developed a deep learning algorithm to predict elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) score from 12-lead electrocardiograms (CAC- ECG). We tested the hypothesis that this CAC-ECG algorithm will independently predict long-term survival. Methods: We leveraged a historical cohort of 43,210 consecutive patients who from the years 1997-2020 underwent clinically indicated ECG-gated unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT) to identify and quantify CAC and had an ECG within 1 year of the CT. Data on cardiovascular risk (CV) factors, and to calculate the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) for ASCVD was collected as part of preventive cardiology or general medical evaluations. We used the oldest CAC in record and excluded those taking statins at the time of the CAC. The algorithm was trained in 60% of the cohort, and the association between CAC-ECG and survival was evaluated with multivariate cox proportional hazard models in 40% of the remaining observations. Results: Of the 17,284 evaluated patients, mean ± SD age 55.9 ± 9.9, 33% female, 3,714 (21%) had elevated CAC ≥ 300. During an average of 15±5.9 years follow-up, 848 (5%) patients died. The algorithm’s area under the receiving operating characteristics curve (ROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy to detect a CAC ≥ 300 were 0.83, 0.90%, 0.56%, 0.60%. Those with elevated CAC had a nearly two-fold risk of death, a value similar to those deemed positive by the ECG-CAC algorithm ( Figure A ). Risk of death increased with CAC-ECG probability quartiles ( Figure A ). The CAC-ECG algorithm enhanced predicted capabilities of the PCE across all ASCVD risk subgroups ( Figure B ), as well as in those with no CAC and elevated CAC ( Figure C ), all p for trend <0.001. Conclusions: A deep learning-enabled CAC-ECG algorithm was independently associated with long-term survival and enhanced current risk prediction paradigms. The CAC-ECG algorithm could help identify individuals at risk in primary prevention of CV disease.

Introduction: Increasing evidence unravels the role of loneliness and social connection in cardiovascular diseases potentially mediating accelerated biological aging. The present study aims to explore the association between social connection and biological aging as determinate by artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography (ECG). Methods: This is an observational retrospective cohort of adults aged ≥18 seen at Mayo Clinic from 2019-2022 who completed the social determinants of health questionnaire and had a 12-lead ECG within one year of completing the questionnaire. Five questions were asked to understand each patient’s social connection . The answers were scored to assess their level of social connection from socially isolated (score of 0) to socially connected (score of 4). The biological age was predicted from ECGs using the previously developed convolutional neural network (AI-ECG age). Delta age (Δage) was defined as AI-ECG age minus chronological age, where positive values reflect an older than expected age. Results: We included 280,323 subjects (chronological age 59.7±16.4 years, 51% female). The average AI-ECG age was 59.5±13.5 year. Better social connection status correlated with lower delta age (β=-0.33 (95%CI, -0.38 and -0.28, p<0.001, adjusted to chronological age and sex). Conversely, individuals reporting the least social connection were an average of 2 years older than expected whereas those with the most social connection were 2 years younger than expected by AI-ECG (Figure 1). Conclusions: Social connection is strongly associated with slower biological aging compared to chronological aging, independent of the conventional cardiovascular risk factors. This observation underscores the need to address social connection as a healthcare determinant.

Introduction: The physiological changes associated with aging have deleterious effects on cardiovascular function. In addition, increasing evidence showed the effect of exercise on improving cardiovascular health and reducing the aging process. The present study sought to demonstrate the association between exercise and biological age, estimated by our previously reported method using artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography (ECG). Methods: This retrospective observational study enrolled adults aged ≥18 years who have been evaluated at Mayo Clinic between 2019-2022 and completed the exercise questionnaire. The total time spent in moderate to strenuous exercise was calculated by multiplying the number of days engaging in exercise per week by the average minutes per day. The biological age was determined by applying our previously developed convolutional neural network model on the 12-lead ECG records (AI-ECG). The ECG records were within one year of subjects’ visits (in case of multiple visits, the closest one to the questionnaire was chosen). Positive Age-Gap (AI-ECG minus chronological age) reflects a person identified as being older by AI-ECG compared to his/her chronological age. Results: A total of 268,002 subjects (51% female) were recruited (mean age 59.7±16.4 years). Of those, 25.7% were not engaged in any exercise. The median day of engaging in exercise was 3 (Interquartile range, 2,5) per week, and the average time of exercising was 31.3±30 minutes/day. Age-Gap diminished progressively with increased duration of moderate to strenuous exercise (Figure 1). Linear regression analysis revealed exercise is an independent predictor of Age-Gap, (β= -0.043, 95%CI, -0.045 and -0.041, p<0.001). Conclusions: Engaging in moderate to strenuous exercise is associated with slower biological aging relative to chronological age as determined by AI-enabled ECG.

Introduction: Newly developed Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation-2 (SCORE-2) and the version for older people [(SCORE2-OP) ≥70 years] algorithms for 10-yr incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been derived incorporating European and US populations. Its performance has not been externally validated in community-based populations representative of real-world clinical practice. Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that the SCORE-2 and SCORE2-OP algorithms will accurately estimate 10-yr risk of first-onset CVD in this population. Methods: Consecutive patients who, between 1998-2000, sought primary care in Olmsted county, MN, and were followed-up using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Inclusion criteria were set as those used in the derivation of the original algorithm. The composite outcome of CVD was defined as first myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular mortality. We compared predicted and observed events and generated C-statistics across predefined risk subgroups. Results: We included 22,858 adults, mean age of 55.11±11.58 (13.50% >70 yr) 54% females. After a mean follow-up of 9.55±1.5 yr, 2,145 events were observed. 6.39% of subjects for SCORE-2 and 59.88% using SCORE2-OP were considered at high risk. Overall, the SCORE-2 had better discrimination than the SCORE2-OP (C-statistic: 0.72 and 0.64, respectively) (Fig B-D). The algorithms performed better in individuals 50-69 yr while underpredicting in younger individuals and overpredicting CVD in ages above 70 (in the low and moderate risk group) (Fig A-C). Prediction was mostly similar between men, women and middle-aged individuals but demonstrated pronounced underprediction in older men (Fig B-D). Conclusions: The SCORE-2 Risk prediction tool performed with marginal results whereas the SCORE2-OP had poor performance when predicting CVD events in a community cohort representing real-world clinical practice in a non-European population.