Hegstrom, Lars

Background: Early diagnosis of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) can lead to reduced healthcare costs and improved outcomes. In this study, we evaluated the economic effectiveness of an AI algorithm for detecting low ejection fraction using 12-lead ECG data. Aims: The primary aim was to estimate the health economic impact of the AI-ECG algorithm intervention to detect low ejection fraction. Methods: The study population consisted of 113,719 individuals without a prior history of HFrEF who visited a multistate health system between 2010-2018 with 12-lead ECG data and an echocardiogram within 1 year. The AI-ECG algorithm was run retrospectively, and projected costs were estimated assuming each patient incurred the average cost based on their age group and AI-detected heart failure stage. Hospitalization costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursement rates, and economic benefits from increased survival were estimated using a willingness to pay of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results: At the optimal model threshold, the total cost savings per patient (including benefits from QALYs gained) for the AI-ECG algorithm vs. standard-of-care on the overall study population were projected to be $79.11 (95% CI: [$53.77, $104.44]) and $124.93 (95% CI: [$83.99, $165.88]) for the 2 and 4 year periods, respectively. For patients over 50 years old, the projected total cost savings were $85.56 (95% CI: [$56.35, $114.78]) and $135.28 (95% CI: [$88.18, $182.38]) per patient for the 2 and 4 year periods, respectively. See Figure. Conclusions: The AI-ECG algorithm to detect low ejection fraction is a cost-effective early screening tool for HFrEF.

Abstract Background Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), of which coronary artery disease (CAD) is the primary manifestation, is the leading cause of death worldwide. The AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) facilitates risk stratification and initiation of primary prevention of ASCVD, however their performance is suboptimal. Purpose We develop an artificial intelligence-based electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis (AI-ECG) algorithm to detect different stages of CAD and assessed the value of AI-ECG over PCE to predict incident myocardial infarction (MI) and survival over 3-years. Methods Using electronic health record data from approximately 7 million patients seen at over 70 hospitals and clinics across 5 states in the USA, we created independent AI-ECG models to identify elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) by computer tomography, the presence of obstructive CAD by stress test or angiography, and left ventricular regional akinesis by echocardiogram, presumed to represent prior MI. Deep structured data, AI-enabled natural language processing of unstructured data were used to ensure cohort, and physician review of labeling were used to ensure cohort accuracy. These models were ensembled into a single model that was used to assess the utility of AI-ECG for predicting new occurrence MI in PCE- and age-stratified cohorts of patient with no prior history of ASCVD, over a 3-year timeframe using Cox’s proportional hazards analysis. Results A total of 6,080 patients (15,192 ECGs) were labeled positive for CAC ≥ 300, 12,561 patients (18,915 ECGs) positive for obstructive CAD, and 10,767 patients (23,870 ECGs) positive for regional akinesis. AI-ECG for identifying elevated CACS, obstructive CAD, and regional akinesis achieved AUROCs of 0.86, 0.80, and 0.93, respectively. All AI-ECG models identified increased 3-year risk for MI and death in AI-ECG positive versus AI-ECG negative patients and subgroups with 2 or 3 positive results had stepwise increased risk (Figure A). In a 3-year survival analysis of all-comer patients, the hazard ratio for those that tested positive on 1, 2, or 3 versus 0 positive disease-specific models were 1.61 (1.53-1.69). 2.40 (2.27-2.55), 3.42 (3.21-3.65), respectively. Risk stratification was also observed in cohorts without prior ASCVD stratified by low and high PCE-derived 10-year ASCVD risk (Figure B) and in cohorts stratified by age, including under the age of 40. Conclusions AI-ECG has potential to address unmet need for accessible risk stratification in patients in whom PCE under, over, or insufficiently estimate ASCVD risk, and in whom risk assessment over periods of time shorter than 10 years is desired.