Lopez-Jiminez, F

Abstract Background Existing clinical preoperative risk assessment tools such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) have been used extensively to predict perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis using Deep Learning can identify hidden features that human eyes cannot identify and might help further risk stratify patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Objective We aimed to develop a Deep Learning model that predicts perioperative MACE in patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgeries. Methods We included patients ≥ 18-year-old who underwent elective non-cardiac surgery between 2000-2021. MACE was validated in duplicate and were defined as a composite of in-hospital myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest or mortality. A convolutional neural network was developed using ECGs within 30 days before surgery. We randomly split subjects into training, internal validation, and testing datasets in a 7:1:2 ratio. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) values on the testing dataset. Models trained included AI-ECG models to predict in-hospital MACE and to predict in-hospital mortality, and AI-ECG+RCRI models to predict in-hospital MACE and to predict in-hospital mortality. All models were validated using 30-day validated outcomes (MACE or all-cause mortality) in a community-based cohort and were compared with the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score using AUC values. Findings: We included 195,214 patients who underwent a total of 241,999 surgeries. 169,214 ECGs were used in the training dataset, 24,234 in the internal validation dataset, and 48,551 in the testing dataset. In the test cohort, the AI-ECG algorithm discriminated risk for in-hospital MACE with an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85). The algorithm similarly discriminated 30-day MACE with an AUC value of 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) surpassing the discrimination of the RCRI score AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.72). All models’ performances are shown in Figure1A. The AI-ECG model to predict in-hospital mortality had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86) and predicted 30-day mortality with an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.82). Other models’ performances are shown Figure1B. Training the AI-ECG models including RCRI data did not improve the AI-ECG models’ performance. Conclusion AI-ECG models with no additional clinical data can improve perioperative risk prediction in non-cardiac surgery, outperforming a conventional and widely used risk stratification tool such as the RCRI.

Abstract Background Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), of which coronary artery disease (CAD) is the primary manifestation, is the leading cause of death worldwide. The AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) facilitates risk stratification and initiation of primary prevention of ASCVD, however their performance is suboptimal. Purpose We develop an artificial intelligence-based electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis (AI-ECG) algorithm to detect different stages of CAD and assessed the value of AI-ECG over PCE to predict incident myocardial infarction (MI) and survival over 3-years. Methods Using electronic health record data from approximately 7 million patients seen at over 70 hospitals and clinics across 5 states in the USA, we created independent AI-ECG models to identify elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) by computer tomography, the presence of obstructive CAD by stress test or angiography, and left ventricular regional akinesis by echocardiogram, presumed to represent prior MI. Deep structured data, AI-enabled natural language processing of unstructured data were used to ensure cohort, and physician review of labeling were used to ensure cohort accuracy. These models were ensembled into a single model that was used to assess the utility of AI-ECG for predicting new occurrence MI in PCE- and age-stratified cohorts of patient with no prior history of ASCVD, over a 3-year timeframe using Cox’s proportional hazards analysis. Results A total of 6,080 patients (15,192 ECGs) were labeled positive for CAC ≥ 300, 12,561 patients (18,915 ECGs) positive for obstructive CAD, and 10,767 patients (23,870 ECGs) positive for regional akinesis. AI-ECG for identifying elevated CACS, obstructive CAD, and regional akinesis achieved AUROCs of 0.86, 0.80, and 0.93, respectively. All AI-ECG models identified increased 3-year risk for MI and death in AI-ECG positive versus AI-ECG negative patients and subgroups with 2 or 3 positive results had stepwise increased risk (Figure A). In a 3-year survival analysis of all-comer patients, the hazard ratio for those that tested positive on 1, 2, or 3 versus 0 positive disease-specific models were 1.61 (1.53-1.69). 2.40 (2.27-2.55), 3.42 (3.21-3.65), respectively. Risk stratification was also observed in cohorts without prior ASCVD stratified by low and high PCE-derived 10-year ASCVD risk (Figure B) and in cohorts stratified by age, including under the age of 40. Conclusions AI-ECG has potential to address unmet need for accessible risk stratification in patients in whom PCE under, over, or insufficiently estimate ASCVD risk, and in whom risk assessment over periods of time shorter than 10 years is desired.