Demmer, Ryan T.

Abstract RATIONALE: Deferral and declination of the COVID-19 vaccine is correlated with many factors, including different health guidelines and difficulties accessing the vaccine. In the US, COVID-19 vaccines were made available in tranches of clinical risk starting in December 2020 and were available to all adults on April 19, 2021. In the post-pandemic period, repeating COVID-19 vaccination with updated formulations is broadly recommended. Given that the public health impact of vaccine allocation strategies depends on public acceptance of vaccination, we aimed to evaluate demographic, clinical and social correlates of (1) receiving at least one COVID-19 vaccine by May 1, 2021 (prompt vaccination) and (2) the total number of vaccine doses received (vaccine count) through 2023-2024. METHODS: The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a prospective observational meta-cohort study comprising 14 extant NIH-funded population-based cohorts. C4R assessed COVID-19 vaccination using three waves of standardized questionnaires (2020-2021, 2021-2023, 2023-2024). Prompt vaccination was defined by participant self-report of vaccination before May 1, 2021; participants vaccinated after May1, 2021 were classified as non-prompt; participants with missing vaccination information were excluded. Vaccine count was defined by self-report on the 2023-2024 wave Questionnaire. Demographic, clinical and social factors were classified by self-report and/or objective measures from the most recent pre-pandemic cohort exam. Poisson models regressed either prompt vaccination or vaccine count on pre-pandemic factors. RESULTS: Of 17,866 participants (mean age, 6713 years; 60.1% female; 42.1% non-Hispanic White, 22.0% Black, 28.9% Hispanic/Latino, 3.4% American Indian, 2.3% South Asian, 1.4% East Asian), 11,481 (64.3%) reported prompt vaccination. Of the subset of 14,529 participants completing the Wave 3 questionnaire, the median vaccine count in 2023-24 was 3 (Q1, 2; Q3 4). Likelihood of prompt vaccination was higher with greater age, income, and education and with history of diabetes and hypertension; prompt vaccination was less likely with male sex, current smoking, and non-White race and ethnicity (table). Similar associations were observed with respect to vaccine count (table). CONCLUSIONS: In a diverse C4R cohort community-based sample, earlier and greater COVID-19 vaccination was associated with older age and several clinical comorbidities; in contrast, later and lesser vaccine uptake was observed among historically marginalized groups. Whether disparities in COVID-19 vaccination could contribute to disparities in post-COVID-19 conditions merits further investigation.

Abstract Rationale: SARS-CoV-2 infection may be associated with new or worsening respiratory symptoms that, if persistent, may contribute to “Long COVID.” Research is needed on the prevalence and risk determinants of Long COVID and related respiratory symptoms in adults with and without pre-existing obstructive lung disease or smoking history. Methods: C4R is a prospective, observational study that collected information on SARS-CoV-2 infection using standardized methods across 14 NIH-funded cohorts. The third wave of C4R questionnaires, administered June 2023 to January 2025, assessed self-reported Long COVID via the question, “Do you think that you are experiencing, or have ever experienced, what has been called “long COVID,” or symptoms related to COVID at least a month after your infection?” Questionnaires also assessed the presence (vs absence) of 22 symptoms that have been linked to Long COVID, including cough, shortness of breath, and post-exertional malaise. Pre-pandemic obstructive lung disease (COPD or asthma) and smoking status (ever/never) were harmonized from self-reported data collected at the most recent pre-pandemic cohort exam. Poisson regression was used to assess prevalence ratios (PRs) adjusting for age, sex, BMI, education, and pre-pandemic hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and depressive symptoms. PRs for respiratory symptoms were tested according to self-reported Long COVID and history of non-hospitalized or hospitalized infection; effect modification by pre-pandemic lung disease and smoking was assessed by multiplicative interaction terms and in fully stratified models. Results: Among 23,434 questionnaire respondents, 1,484 (6.3%) self-reported Long COVID, including 246/1,262 (19.5%) with pre-pandemic lung disease and 664/4,018 (16.5%) with smoking history. The adjusted PR for Long COVID was 1.17 (95%CI:0.99-1.39;P=0.06) comparing participants with/without lung disease and 1.17 (95%CI:1.04-1.32;P=0.01) comparing participants with/without smoking history. Respiratory symptoms were more prevalent in those with self-reported Long COVID, as well as in those with a history of hospitalized or non-hospitalized infection (Table). Associations were generally stronger in participants without pre-pandemic lung disease (p-interaction<0.05 for all comparisons). Respiratory symptoms were also more prevalent with a history of repeated, and pre-Omicron infections, and were less prevalent among participants vaccinated prior to their first infection; findings were similar even after excluding participants with self-reported Long COVID. Conclusions: Long COVID is common, particularly in adults with pre-existing COPD or asthma or smoking history. Long COVID and history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including non-hospitalized infections, was associated with greater respiratory symptom burden. Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection or Long COVID are associated with development or progression of obstructive lung diseases warrants future studies.

Abstract RATIONALE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in the general population and is associated with inflammation and compromised immune function. Since these mechanisms are hypothesized to promote severe COVID-19, we tested associations of pre-pandemic CKD with incident COVID-19 hospitalization or death in a large, multi-ethnic, US general population-based meta-cohort of adults. METHODS: Data were harmonized and pooled from 9 NIH-funded longitudinal cohorts participating in the Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R). CKD was classified by KDIGO 2024 CKD guideline (Low Risk, Moderately Increased Risk, High Risk, Very High Risk) using pre-pandemic urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate using creatinine (eGFRcr). Incident COVID-19 hospitalization or death was ascertained over 2020−2023 via self-report and active surveillance, with medical record adjudication in a subset. In our primary analysis, we assessed associations between CKD stages and incident COVID-19 hospitalization or death. A secondary analysis examined joint association of CKD stages and the number of comorbidities (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) with the severe COVID-19. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by cause-specific Cox regression, adjusting for socio-demographics and smoking. RESULTS: Among 26,039 multi-ethnic adult participants (mean age 66.1±14.8, 60.6 % female, 28.6% Whites, 3.2% Asians, 20.6% Blacks, 41.3% Hispanics, 6.3% American Indians) with a median follow-up of 550 days since the onset of the pandemic (baseline: March 1, 2020), there were 734 incident COVID-19 hospitalizations or deaths. The mean time since CKD markers were measured before the baseline was 6.5 years. The cumulative incidence of severe COVID-19 was 2.3, 3.5, 6.5, and 7.3% across CKD risk stages, and similar patterns were observed within variant types (Figure 1). Compared to participants with Low Risk of CKD, there was a graded increased hazards of severe COVID-19 across CKD stages, with HRs (95% CIs) of 1.27 (1.03−1.55) for Moderately Increased Risk, 2.33 (1.77−3.06) for High Risk, and 2.72 (1.89−3.92) for Very High Risk. In a joint analysis, both increased CKD risk and a higher number of comorbidities were associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19, showing the highest HR of 12.29 (5.75−26.27) in Very High Risk individuals with four comorbidities compared to Low Risk individuals with none. CONCLUSIONS: Higher CKD stages were associated with a greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death and the risk is substantially heightened with additional comorbidities. These results suggest that adults with CKD and related comorbidities may merit enhanced COVID-19 risk mitigation.

Objective: Over 3 million Americans have heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Effective guideline directed medical treatments (GDMT) are increasingly available but patients with HFpEF are likely under-detected (particularly women) and not receiving GDMT. Limited data are available informing the extent of HFpEF under-detection in the community. Hypothesis: Among patients with undifferentiated dyspnea and a high risk for unrecognized HFpEF, fewer than 50% will receive a HFpEF diagnosis during two years of follow-up; underrecognition will be greater among women. Methods: We identified 22,134 patients aged ≥30 in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (a medical records linkage system comprising a 27-county region of southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin) with evidence of unexplained dyspnea (≥2 ICD codes for dyspnea separated by >1 day) without prior documented etiology including HF or lung disease, during the time period 2018-2022. We calculated the recently validated HFpEF-Age-BMI-Atrial Fibrillation (HFpEF-ABA) score to estimate the probability of underlying HFpEF. Cox proportional hazards models regressed risk for incident HFpEF diagnosis on HFpEF-ABA score (dichotomized as ≥80% vs. <80%) with multivariable adjustment for sex, race and ethnicity. HRs(95%CIs) are presented. Results: Patients were 59±16 yrs, 50.8% women, 88.6% white, 3.1% Black, 3.7% other race, 4.6% Hispanic. Atrial fibrillation prevalence was 9.4% and mean BMI=31.4±7.8. Prevalence of HFpEF-ABA≥80% was 22.4%(n=4,958): 22.7% among women and 22.1% among men. The cumulative incidence of clinically-recognized HFpEF diagnosis at two years follow-up was 9.7% among women and 12.8% among men (log-rank p<0.01). HFpEF incidence was elevated with high HFpEF-ABA scores(≥80%): HR(95%CI) among women=3.72 (3.35, 4.14), and men=3.42 (3.11, 3.76). Among those with clinically diagnosed HFpEF during follow-up, mean time from date of first dyspnea ICD code to HFpEF diagnosis was 1.26 years overall: 1.31 and 1.21 years in women and men, respectively (p=0.05). Conclusions: One in five patients with undifferentiated dyspnea have probable undiagnosed HFpEF, and of that group, only 30% receive a clinical diagnosis, requiring an average of over 1 year to be recognized. The rate of diagnosis is even lower among women than men. Further study is warranted to implement evidence-based algorithms supporting detection of undiagnosed HFpEF in the community, especially in women.

Background: Despite the availability of effective vaccines and a recent decrease in annual deaths, coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) remains a leading cause of death. Serological studies of anti-nucleocapsid (N) antibody response to infection provide insights into host immunobiology of adaptive immune response, which holds promise for identifying high-risk individuals for adverse acute and chronic COVID-19 outcomes. Hypothesis: Among participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, traditional vascular disease risk factors are associated with higher anti-N antibodies while vaccination is associated with lower anti-N antibodies. Methods: Among previously infected participants, anti-N antibodies were measured from dried blood spots collected between February 2021-February 2023 among 1,419 Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) participants with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. We measured anti-N IgG antibodies reported as median fluorescence intensity (MFI) units; reactivity (i.e., seropositivity) was defined based on MFI above a validated threshold. Vascular disease risk factors were assessed via pre-pandemic in-person examination, questionnaires, and medical record review. Multivariable generalized linear models regressed anti-N reactivity (modified Poisson) or LN transformed MFI (linear). Results: Among 1,419 participants with prior infection, mean age (standard deviation) was 65.8(12.1) years, 61% were women, and 42.8% were self-reported from a race/ethnicity minority group. Participant reactivity to nucleocapsid peaked at 69% by 4 months post-infection and waned to only 44% ≥12 months after infection. After multivariable adjustment, higher anti-N antibody response was associated with older age, Hispanic (vs. White) or American Indian (vs. White) race/ethnicity, lower income and education, former smoking, and higher anti-spike antibody levels. Asian race (vs. White) and vaccination ( even after infection ) were associated with lower nucleocapsid reactivity; common cardiometabolic co-morbidities were not associated with anti-N reactivity or levels (Figures 1 and 2). Conclusions: Among participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, select sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors were associated with higher anti-N antibody levels while vaccination was associated with lower anti-N antibody levels. The observation that vaccination, even after infection, is related to lower anti-N antibody levels merits further investigation.

Background: Thrombo-inflammation is a hallmark of acute Covid-19, with higher thrombo-inflammatory markers during infection associated with adverse outcomes. We hypothesized that higher pre-pandemic biomarkers, reflecting a higher thrombo-inflammatory setpoint, might identify people at greater risk of severe manifestations of Covid-19. Hypothesis: Pre-pandemic inflammation markers are associated with risk of hospitalized or fatal (hereafter, “severe”) Covid-19 in a multi-ethnic US sample. Methods: From 2020-2023, C4R harmonized pre-pandemic measures and ascertained Covid-19 across 14 longstanding cohort studies. In 12 cohorts, we assessed biomarker data and covariates from the study visit closest to the pandemic for 6 analytes shown in the Table. HRs of severe Covid-19 by pre-pandemic biomarkers were estimated using cause-specific Cox regression, treating non-severe Covid-19 as a competing risk, and adjusting for pre-pandemic sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Results: Biomarkers were measured a mean of 20 years before the pandemic with different sample sizes for each (Table footnote). Mean age at the start of the pandemic was in the 60s or 70s depending on the biomarker. The most represented race or ethnic groups were White and Black. The largest sample was for C-reactive protein, and there were 1,001 severe Covid-19 cases among 38,784 participants. In the adjusted models, considered individually, higher CRP, leukocyte count, factor VIII and fibrinogen, but not other markers, were associated with greater risk of severe Covid-19 (Table).Associations were robust across subgroups and time since biomarker measurement (example for C-reactive protein in Figure). Conclusions: In this prospective multi-study analysis of a multi-ethnic population, higher basal levels of thrombo-inflammation markers were associated with greater risk of severe Covid-19. Since we considered non-severe Covid-19 as a competing risk, associations may reflect factors related to progression to more serious Covid-19 illness.

Abstract Rationale Increased risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalization and death has been reported among patients with clinical lung disease. Objectives To test the association of objective measures of prepandemic lung function and structure with COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. adults. Methods Prepandemic obstruction (FEV1/FVC &lt; 0.70) and restriction (FEV1/FVC ⩾ 0.7, FVC &lt; 80%) were defined based on the most recent spirometry exam conducted in 11 prospective U.S. general population–based cohorts. Severe obstruction was classified by FEV1 &lt; 50%. Percentage emphysema, percentage high-attenuation areas, and interstitial lung abnormalities were defined on computed tomography in a subset. Incident COVID-19 was ascertained via questionnaires, serosurvey, and medical records from 2020 to 2023 and classified as severe (hospitalized or fatal) or nonsevere. Cause-specific hazard models were adjusted for sociodemographics, anthropometry, smoking, comorbidities, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Measurements and Main Results Among 29,323 participants (mean age, 67 yr), there were 748 severe incident COVID-19 cases over median follow-up of 17.3 months from March 1, 2020. Greater hazards of severe COVID-19 were associated with severe obstruction (vs. normal; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.27), restriction (vs. normal; aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.12–1.76), and percentage emphysema (highest vs. lowest quartile; aHR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.03–2.61), but not greater high-attenuation areas or interstitial lung abnormalities. COVID-19 vaccination provided greater absolute risk reduction in these groups. Results were similar in participants without smoking, obesity, or clinical cardiopulmonary disease. Conclusions Prepandemic severe spirometric obstruction, spirometric restriction, and greater percentage emphysema lung on computed tomography were associated with risk of severe COVID-19. These findings support enhanced COVID-19 risk mitigation for individuals with impaired lung health and warrant further mechanistic studies on interactions of lung function, structure, and vulnerability to acute respiratory illnesses.

Abstract Despite the availability of effective vaccines and a recent decrease in annual deaths, COVID-19 remains a leading cause of death. Serological studies provide insights into host immunobiology of adaptive immune response to infection, which holds promise for identifying high-risk individuals for adverse COVID-19 outcomes. We investigated correlates of anti-nucleocapsid antibody responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection in a US population-based meta-cohort of adults participating in longstanding National Institutes of Health–funded cohort studies. Anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were measured from dried blood spots collected between February 2021 and February 2023. Among 1419 Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research participants with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, the mean age (standard deviation) was 65.8 (12.1), 61% were women, and 42.8% self-reported membership in a race/ethnicity minority group. The proportion of participants reactive to nucleocapsid peaked at 69% by 4 months after infection and waned to only 44% ≥12 months after infection. Higher anti-nucleocapsid antibody response was associated with older age, Hispanic or American Indian Alaskan Native (vs White) race/ethnicity, lower income, lower education, former smoking, and higher anti-spike antibody levels. Asian race (vs White) and vaccination (even after infection) were associated with lower nucleocapsid reactivity. Neither vaccine manufacturer nor common cardiometabolic comorbidities were not associated with anti-nucleocapsid response. These findings inform the underlying immunobiology of adaptive immune response to infection, as well as the potential utility of anti-nucleocapsid antibody response for clinical practice and COVID-19 serosurveillance.

Background The immune response to infections may become dysregulated and promote myocardial damage contributing to heart failure (HF). We examined the relationship between infection‐related hospitalization (IRH) and HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction, and HF with reduced ejection fraction. Methods and Results We studied 14 468 adults aged 45 to 64 years in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study who were HF free at visit 1 (1987–1989). IRH was identified using select International Classification of Diseases ( ICD ) codes in hospital discharge records and was treated as a time‐varying exposure. HF incidence was defined as the first occurrence of either a hospitalization that included an ICD, Ninth Revision ( ICD‐9 ) discharge code of 428 (428.0–428.9) among the primary or secondary diagnoses or a death certificate with an ICD‐9 code of 428 or an ICD, Tenth Revision ( ICD‐10 ) code of I50 among any of the listed diagnoses or underlying causes of death. We used multivariable‐adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between IRH and incident HF, HF with reduced ejection fraction, and HF with preserved ejection fraction. Median follow‐up time was 27 years, 55% were women, 26% were Black, mean age at baseline was 54±6 years, 46% had an IRH, and 3565 had incident HF. Hazard ratio (HR) for incident HF events among participants who had an IRH compared with those who did not was 2.35 (95% CI, 2.19–2.52). This relationship was consistent across different types of infections. Additionally, IRH was associated with both HF with reduced ejection fraction and HF with preserved ejection fraction: 1.77 (95% CI, 1.35–2.32) and 2.97 (95% CI, 2.36–3.75), respectively. Conclusions IRH was associated with incident HF, HF with reduced ejection fraction, and HF with preserved ejection fraction. IRH might represent a modifiable risk factor for HF pathophysiology.