Kaplan, Robert C.

Abstract Rationale Increased risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalization and death has been reported among patients with clinical lung disease. Objectives To test the association of objective measures of prepandemic lung function and structure with COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. adults. Methods Prepandemic obstruction (FEV1/FVC < 0.70) and restriction (FEV1/FVC ⩾ 0.7, FVC < 80%) were defined based on the most recent spirometry exam conducted in 11 prospective U.S. general population–based cohorts. Severe obstruction was classified by FEV1 < 50%. Percentage emphysema, percentage high-attenuation areas, and interstitial lung abnormalities were defined on computed tomography in a subset. Incident COVID-19 was ascertained via questionnaires, serosurvey, and medical records from 2020 to 2023 and classified as severe (hospitalized or fatal) or nonsevere. Cause-specific hazard models were adjusted for sociodemographics, anthropometry, smoking, comorbidities, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Measurements and Main Results Among 29,323 participants (mean age, 67 yr), there were 748 severe incident COVID-19 cases over median follow-up of 17.3 months from March 1, 2020. Greater hazards of severe COVID-19 were associated with severe obstruction (vs. normal; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.27), restriction (vs. normal; aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.12–1.76), and percentage emphysema (highest vs. lowest quartile; aHR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.03–2.61), but not greater high-attenuation areas or interstitial lung abnormalities. COVID-19 vaccination provided greater absolute risk reduction in these groups. Results were similar in participants without smoking, obesity, or clinical cardiopulmonary disease. Conclusions Prepandemic severe spirometric obstruction, spirometric restriction, and greater percentage emphysema lung on computed tomography were associated with risk of severe COVID-19. These findings support enhanced COVID-19 risk mitigation for individuals with impaired lung health and warrant further mechanistic studies on interactions of lung function, structure, and vulnerability to acute respiratory illnesses.

Nononcogenic somatic mutations are thought to be uncommon and inconsequential. To test this, we analyzed 43,693 National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine blood whole genomes from 37 cohorts and identified 7131 non-missense somatic mutations that are recurrently mutated in at least 50 individuals. These recurrent non-missense somatic mutations (RNMSMs) are not clearly explained by other clonal phenomena such as clonal hematopoiesis. RNMSM prevalence increased with age, with an average 50-year-old having 27 RNMSMs. Inherited germline variation associated with RNMSM acquisition. These variants were found in genes involved in adaptive immune function, proinflammatory cytokine production, and lymphoid lineage commitment. In addition, the presence of eight specific RNMSMs associated with blood cell traits at effect sizes comparable to Mendelian genetic mutations. Overall, we found that somatic mutations in blood are an unexpectedly common phenomenon with ancestry-specific determinants and human health consequences.

Objectives: Genetic and environmental influences contribute to differences in ischemic stroke phenotype across race-ethnic groups. The Causative Classification System (CSS) is an ischemic stroke phenotype characterization tool developed for etiological and causative classification. The CCS phenotypes across ethnic groups were analyzed and compared. Methods: The NINDS S troke G enetics N etwork (SiGN) is a large consortium aimed at identifying subtype-specific ischemic stroke susceptibility genes. Over 12,000 subjects at 22 sites across US and Europe were enrolled, with CSS locally adjudicated. Central CCS quality control was performed on all participants. Analysis was performed on 7,674 patients with complete workups. Findings: Significant ethnic differences were found in stroke etiology across ethnic groups (p <0.0001) with large artery atherosclerosis present most commonly in Asians, cardioembolic sources among Caucasian Europeans, and lacunar strokes among African Americans. African Americans were the youngest ethnic cohort analyzed (see Table 1). Conclusion: Significant differences in stroke subtypes are present across ethnic groups. Future genetic analyses may contribute to our understanding of these differences.

Abstract Background Across complex traits, common variants explain only a modest amount of variance, with SNP-heritability consistently below heritability estimates from close relatives. Here, we examined the contribution of rare variant to tobacco use risk in up to 26,000 individuals of European ancestry in the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program with whole genome sequence (WGS;~30X coverage).Method We grouped about 35 million genetic variants by their minor allele frequencies (MAF) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) and estimated SNP-heritability for age of smoking initiation (N = 14,747), cigarettes smoked per day (N = 15,425), smoking cessation (N = 17,871) and initiation (N = 26,340) using linear mixed model. Rare variant population structure is detected and adjusted for by permutation procedure. We estimated an upper bound for narrow-sense heritability for tobacco use using available pedigrees consisting of close relatives in TOPMed.Results Rare variants with MAF 0.1–0.01%, mostly from non-protein altering region, accounted for 26% of variation in age of initiation and 15% for cessation. Follow-up analysis indicated that about one-third of these rare variants contribtion is potentially confounded with rare variants structure even after adjusting for principal components. After further conservative adjustment of population structure, we estimated SNP-based heritability to be 0.21 (SE = 0.08) for age of initiation, 0.15 (0.06) for cigarettes per day, 0.21 (0.09) for cessation, and 0.24 (0.07) for initiation, 1.8–4.5 times higher than previous SNP-based estimates. Our pedigree-based upper-bound for SNP-based heritability ranged from 0.18–0.35.Conclusion The substantial contribution of rare variants for several smoking phenotypes sheds light on the missing heritability and genetic etiology of tobacco use. It also informs fine-mapping strategies since the majority of the rare variant contribution was located in non-coding regulatory regions.

Background Classification of risk of ischemic stroke is important for medical care and public health reasons. Whether addition of biomarkers adds to predictive power of the Framingham Stroke Risk or other traditional risk factors has not been studied in older women. Methods The Hormones and Biomarkers Predicting Stroke Study is a case-control study of blood biomarkers assayed in 972 ischemic stroke cases and 972 controls, nested in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study of 93 676 postmenopausal women followed for an average of eight-years. We evaluated additive predictive value of two commercially available biomarkers: C-reactive protein and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A 2 to determine if they added to risk prediction by the Framingham Stroke Risk Score or by traditional risk factors, which included lipids and other variables not included in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score. As measures of additive predictive value, we used the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, category-less net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement index. Results Addition of C-reactive protein to Framingham risk models or additional traditional risk factors overall modestly improved prediction of ischemic stroke and resulted in overall net reclassification improvement of 6·3%, (case net reclassification improvement = 3·9%, control net reclassification improvement = 2·4%). In particular, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was useful in prediction of cardioembolic strokes (net reclassification improvement = 12·0%; 95% confidence interval 4·3–19·6%) and in strokes occurring in less than three-years (net reclassification improvement = 7·9%, 95% confidence interval 0·8–14·9%). Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A 2 was useful in risk prediction of large artery strokes (net reclassification improvement = 19·8%, 95% confidence interval 7·4–32·1%) and in early strokes (net reclassification improvement = 5·8%, 95% confidence interval 0·4–11·2%). Conclusions C-reactive protein and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A 2 can improve prediction of certain subtypes of ischemic stroke in older women, over the Framingham stroke risk model and traditional risk factors, and may help to guide surveillance and treatment of women at risk.