Robinson, Clifford G.

Abstract Background: Personalizing chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) is limited by the lack of early biomarkers that inform response during treatment. Current circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) molecular residual disease assays predict post-treatment outcomes but lack mid-treatment utility. ctDNA burden estimation has traditionally relied on variant-centric metrics such as maximum variant allele fraction (Max VAF), which rely on mutation-specific signals and may be confounded by histology-dependent shedding variability, allelic imbalance, and clonal hematopoiesis. Here we present circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE), a machine-learning composite score that integrates VAF distributions, copy-number alterations, and germline B-allele frequency deviations to approximate global tumor burden using a widely available, tumor-naïve clinical platform. Methods: A burden-based ctFE threshold was derived using pre-treatment plasma from a prospective phase II clinical trial of MR-guided hypofractionated chemoRT (LA-WU, n=26), locked, and applied unchanged to early mid-treatment samples (day 10-14). To test scalability and generalizability, its prognostic performance was validated in two real-world cohorts: 94 LA-NSCLC patients receiving definitive chemoRT (LA-RW) and 309 oligometastatic NSCLC patients receiving consolidative RT (OM-RW). ctFE and Max VAF were compared as continuous predictors across cohorts. Results: ctFE consistently outperformed Max VAF. In LA-WU, pre-treatment ctFE was associated with overall survival (OS HR=1.15, p=0.04) and progression-free survival (PFS HR=1.84, p=0.009), whereas Max VAF was not. Mid-treatment ctFE remained prognostic for PFS (HR=1.14, p=0.026). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with marked OS separation: consistently low, responder, and nonresponder groups (median OS 60.8 vs 13.0 vs 2.9 months, respectively; p<0.001). In multivariable models including both biomarkers, higher ctFE remained independently associated with worse survival in LA-RW (OS HR=1.88, p=0.010) and OM-RW (OS HR=1.37, p=0.040; PFS HR=1.45, p=0.008), whereas Max VAF did not. The locked ctFE threshold stratified OS across all cohorts (LA-WU HR=5.93; LA-RW HR=9.08; OM-RW HR=2.26; all p<0.001). Conclusion: ctFE provides clinically meaningful pre- and mid-treatment risk stratification and consistently outperforms Max VAF across locally advanced and oligometastatic NSCLC cohorts. We show that ctFE is a biologically informative, clinically generalizable and scalable ctDNA burden metric measurable using a tumor-naïve, off-the-shelf assay, supporting its practical utility in biomarker-adapted radiotherapy strategies. Citation Format: Ayesha Hashmi, Jessica Linford, Pradeep S. Chauhan, Kaushal Parikh, Rotem Ben-Shachar, John Guittar, Malvika Pillai, Jyoti Patel, Matteo Bergsagel, Nicholas P. Semenkovich, Kenneth R. Olivier, Sean S. Park, Dawn Owen, David M. Routman, Katie N. Lee, Alex D. Sherry, Aaron S. Mansfield, Daniel Morgensztern, Ramaswamy Govindan, Clifford G. Robinson, Carmen Bergom, Saiama N. Waqar, Bruna Pellini Ferreira, Gregory R. Vlacich, Aadel A. Chaudhuri. Early ctDNA quantification by ctFE outperforms Max VAF for survival stratification across locally advanced and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with radiotherapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 1183.

ImportanceThe optimal radiotherapy technique for unresectable locally advanced non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is controversial, so evaluating long-term prospective outcomes of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is important.ObjectiveTo compare long-term prospective outcomes of patients receiving IMRT and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) with concurrent carboplatin/paclitaxel for locally advanced NSCLC.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA secondary analysis of a prospective phase 3 randomized clinical trial NRG Oncology–RTOG 0617 assessed 483 patients receiving chemoradiotherapy (3D-CRT vs IMRT) for locally advanced NSCLC based on stratification.Main Outcomes and MeasuresLong-term outcomes were analyzed, including overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), time to local failure, development of second cancers, and severe grade 3 or higher adverse events (AEs) per Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3. The percentage of an organ volume (V) receiving a specified amount of radiation in units of Gy is reported as V(radiation dose).ResultsOf 483 patients (median [IQR] age, 64 [57-70] years; 194 [40.2%] female), 228 (47.2%) received IMRT, and 255 (52.8%) received 3D-CRT (median [IQR] follow-up, 5.2 [4.8-6.0] years). IMRT was associated with a 2-fold reduction in grade 3 or higher pneumonitis AEs compared with 3D-CRT (8 [3.5%] vs 21 [8.2%]; P = .03). On univariate analysis, heart V20, V40, and V60 were associated with worse OS (hazard ratios, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.04-1.09]; 1.09 [95% CI, 1.05-1.13]; 1.16 [95% CI, 1.09-1.24], respectively; all P < .001). IMRT significantly reduced heart V40 compared to 3D-CRT (16.5% vs 20.5%; P < .001). Heart V40 (<20%) had better OS than V40 (≥20%) (median [IQR], 2.5 [2.1-3.1] years vs 1.7 [1.5-2.0] years; P < .001). On multivariable analysis, heart V40 (≥20%), was associated with worse OS (hazard ratio, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.06-1.70]; P = .01), whereas lung V5 and age had no association with OS. Patients receiving IMRT and 3D-CRT had similar rates of developing secondary cancers (15 [6.6%] vs 14 [5.5%]) with long-term follow-up.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings support the standard use of IMRT for locally advanced NSCLC. IMRT should aim to minimize lung V20 and heart V20 to V60, rather than constraining low-dose radiation bath. Lung V5 and age were not associated with survival and should not be considered a contraindication for chemoradiotherapy.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00533949

Abstract PURPOSE Previous analysis of NRG-CC001 suggested pre-treatment WMI volume was a significant imaging-biomarker predictor of post-treatment neurocognitive decline at 4-and 12-months following HA-WBRT+Memantine. This suggested patients with greater pre-treatment WMI were more susceptible to neurocognitive decline, specifically when undergoing HA-WBRT, but not standard-WBRT. The current analysis examined the relationship between changes in MR-determined WMI and NCF 6-months following WBRT+memantine+/-HA. METHODS NCF-testing was performed at baseline, 2, 4, 6, and 12 months post-WBRT, and included Hopkins Verbal Learning Test–Revised (HVLT-R), Trail Making Test (TMT) Parts A and B, and Controlled Oral Word Association (COWA). Pre-treatment WMI was measured by FLAIR-volume corrected for whole brain volume and corrected for the FLAIR volume associated with metastases (met vol) (FLAIR-volume/(whole brain volume–met-vol). Pearson correlation coefficients were used to assess the correlation between pre-treatment WMI and change from baseline to 6-months for each standardized NCF score. RESULTS Of the 518 randomized patients, 443 (217 patients WBRT+Memantine and 226 HA-WBRT+Memantine) had WMI data available at baseline, and of those, 162 patients (89 patients WBRT+Memantine and 73 HA-WBRT+Memantine) had both baseline and 6-month imaging available. For these patients, there was only a trend toward significance for change in corrected FLAIR-volume from baseline to 6-months (p = 0.174) but no significant change in met-vol (p = 0.438) or whole brain volume (p = 0.977). The change in standardized TMT Part A and B and the change in composite 6-month change scores were moderately correlated with change in corrected FLAIR volume adjusted for met-vol but only in the WBRT+Memantine arm (rho=-0.35, -0.34, -0.39 and p-value = 0.003, 0.006, 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Despite an increase in post-WBRT MR-WMI at 6-months, analysis did not show strong correlation between NCF and MR-WMI as determined by FLAIR-volume change between baseline and 6-months. Similar analyses are underway for the NRG-CC003 imaging data.

Abstract PURPOSE Hippocampal volume (HV) is a predictor of neurocognitive function (NCF) in neurodegenerative disease. The role of patient-specific anatomic variables has not been well investigated in patients with brain metastases. This work aimed to evaluate HV at baseline and 6 months as a predictor of NCF and differential benefit from HA-WBRT for patients enrolled on CC001. MATERIALS HV was calculated at baseline and 6 months. HV at baseline and 6 months were correlated with baseline and 2, 4, and 6-month NCF scores (HVLT-R Total and Delayed Recall, Delayed Recognition, TMT Parts A and B, and COWA) using Pearson correlation. Correlation was defined as weak if ρ ≤0.35. A cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the impact of baseline HV on time to NCF failure. RESULTS Of 518 patients randomized on CC001, 277 had baseline imaging, and 135 had 6-month imaging. However, only 87 patients were analyzable at both baseline and 6-month periods. At baseline, HV was not significantly associated with NCF score for any measure (p-value range: 0.06-0.72). Additionally, there was no association between baseline HV and time to NCF failure (p = 0.16). Additionally, the impact of treatment arm allocation on HV was examined but found to be non-significant (p = 0.06). Lastly, baseline HV and NCF scores were noted to have weak correlation at 2, 4, 6, and 12 month timepoints (ρ: range, -0.17-0.15; P-value range, 0.04-0.98). At 6 months, the correlation between HV, baseline NCF change, and 6 month standardized NCF change were also noted to be weak (ρ: range, 0.05-0.16; P-value range, 0.06-0.76). CONCLUSIONS Radiotherapy is known to have deleterious effects on neurocognition. In neurodegenerative disease, HV and rate of HV change are known predictors for NCF. However, baseline HV is not an independent predictor of neurocognitive changes after WBRT or HA-WBRT for patients with brain metastases.

Abstract Purpose: RTOG 0617 was a phase III randomized trial for patients with unresectable stage IIIA/IIIB non–small cell lung cancer comparing standard-dose (60 Gy) versus high-dose (74 Gy) radiotherapy and chemotherapy, plus or minus cetuximab. Although the study was negative, based on prior evidence that patients with the KRAS-variant, an inherited germline mutation, benefit from cetuximab, we evaluated KRAS-variant patients in RTOG 0617. Experimental Design: From RTOG 0617, 328 of 496 (66%) of patients were included in this analysis. For time-to-event outcomes, stratified log-rank tests and multivariable Cox regression models were used. For binary outcomes, Cochran—Mantel–Haenzel tests and multivariable logistic regression models were used. All statistical tests were two sided, and a P value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: A total of 17.1% (56/328) of patients had the KRAS-variant, and overall survival rates were similar between KRAS-variant and non-variant patients. However, there was a time-dependent effect of cetuximab seen only in KRAS-variant patients—while the hazard of death was higher in cetuximab-treated patients within year 1 [HR = 3.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13–10.10, P = 0.030], death was lower from year 1 to 4 (HR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.11–0.97, P = 0.043). In contrast, in non-variant patients, the addition of cetuximab significantly increased local failure (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.11–2.28, P = 0.012). Conclusions/Discussion: Although an overall survival advantage was not achieved in KRAS-variant patients, there is potential impact of cetuximab for this genetic subset of patients. In contrast, cetuximab seems to harm non-variant patients. These findings further support the importance of genetic patient selection in trials studying the addition of systemic agents to radiotherapy. Significance: The KRAS-variant is the first functional, inherited miRNA-disrupting variant identified in cancer. Our findings support that cetuximab has a potentially beneficial impact on KRAS-variant patients treated with radiation. The work confirms prior evidence that KRAS-variant patients are a subgroup who are especially sensitive to radiation. These findings further support the potential of this class of variants to enable true treatment personalization, considering the equally important endpoints of response and toxicity.

Background: We hypothesized that the Effective radiation Dose to the Immune Cells (EDIC) in circulating blood is a significant factor for the treatment outcome in patients with locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: This is a secondary study of a phase III trial, NRG/RTOG 0617, in patients with stage III NSCLC treated with radiation-based treatment. The EDIC was computed as equivalent uniform dose to the entire blood based on radiation doses to all blood-containing organs, with consideration of blood flow and fractionation effect. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and the secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and local progression-free survival (LPFS). The EDIC–survival relationship was analyzed with consideration of clinical significant factors. Results: A total of 456 patients were eligible. The median EDIC values were 5.6 Gy (range, 2.1–12.2 Gy) and 6.3 Gy (2.1–11.6 Gy) for the low- and high-dose groups, respectively. The EDIC was significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.12, p = 0.005) and LPFS (HR = 1.09, p = 0.02) but PFS (HR = 1.05, p = 0.17) after adjustment for tumor dose, gross tumor volume and other factors. OS decreased with an increasing EDIC in a non-linear pattern: the two-year OS decreased first with a slope of 8%/Gy when the EDIC < 6 Gy, remained relatively unchanged when the EDIC was 6–8 Gy, and followed by a further reduction with a slope of 12%/Gy when the EDIC > 8 Gy. Conclusions: The EDIC is a significant independent risk factor for poor OS and LPFS in RTOG 0617 patients with stage III NSCLC, suggesting that radiation dose to circulating immune cells is critical for tumor control. Organ at risk for the immune system should be considered during RT plan.

OBJECTIVE The internal high-dose volume varies widely for a given prescribed dose during stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) to treat brain metastases (BMs). This may be altered during treatment planning, and the authors have previously shown that this improves local control (LC) for non–small cell lung cancer BMs without increasing toxicity. Here, they seek to identify potentially actionable dosimetric predictors of LC after SRS for melanoma BM. METHODS The records of patients with unresected melanoma BM treated with single-fraction Gamma Knife RS between 2006 and 2017 were reviewed. LC was assessed on a per-lesion basis, defined as stability or a decrease in lesion size. Outcome-oriented approaches were utilized to determine optimal dichotomization for dosimetric variables relative to LC. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was implemented to evaluate the impact of collected parameters on LC. RESULTS Two hundred eighty-seven melanoma BMs in 79 patients were identified. The median age was 56 years (range 31–86 years). The median follow-up was 7.6 months (range 0.5–81.6 months), and the median survival was 9.3 months (range 1.3–81.6 months). Lesions were optimally stratified by volume receiving at least 30 Gy (V30) greater than or equal to versus less than 25%. V30 was ≥ and < 25% in 147 and 140 lesions, respectively. For all patients, 1-year LC was 83% versus 66% for V30 ≥ and < 25%, respectively (p = 0.001). Stratifying by volume, lesions 2 cm or less (n = 215) had 1-year LC of 82% versus 70% (p = 0.013) for V30 ≥ and < 25%, respectively. Lesions > 2 to 3 cm (n = 32) had 1-year LC of 100% versus 43% (p = 0.214) for V30 ≥ and < 25%, respectively. V30 was still predictive of LC even after controlling for the use of immunotherapy and targeted therapy. Radionecrosis occurred in 2.8% of lesions and was not significantly associated with V30. CONCLUSIONS For a given prescription dose, an increased internal high-dose volume, as indicated by measures such as V30 ≥ 25%, is associated with improved LC but not increased toxicity in single-fraction SRS for melanoma BM. Internal dose escalation is an independent predictor of improved LC even in patients receiving immunotherapy and/or targeted therapy. This represents a dosimetric parameter that is actionable at the time of treatment planning and warrants further evaluation.

Abstract PURPOSE Previous secondary analysis of NRG/RTOG 0933 provided hypothesis-generating data supporting a relationship between larger volumes of MR-determined pre-treatment WMI and developing neurocognitive decline following HA-WBRT. The current study examines the relationship between pre-treatment WMI and neurocognitive function (NCF) following WBRT+memantine +/-HA in a substantially larger cohort. METHODS NCF testing was performed at baseline,2,4,6,and 12 months post-WBRT, and included Hopkins Verbal Learning Test–Revised (HVLT-R), Trail Making Test (TMT) Parts A and B, and Controlled Oral Word Association (COWA). Pre-treatment WMI was measured by FLAIR volume corrected for whole brain volume and corrected for the FLAIR volume associated with metastases (FLAIR/(whole brain volume – metastasis FLAIR volume). Pearson correlation coefficients were used to assess association between pre-treatment WMI and change from baseline for each standardized NCF score. RESULTS Of 518 randomized patients, 442 (217,WBRT+Memantine; 225,HA-WBRT+Memantine) had WMI data and were included. In the entire cohort, mean FLAIR volume was 9.3cc (0.1-68.2cc), mean metastases FLAIR volume was 61.5cc (0-423.5cc), mean Whole Brain volume was 1336.4cc (949.4-2397.8cc). At 2 months, there were no significant correlations between neurocognitive test change scores and pre-treatment WMI volume. However, at 4 months, both HVLT-R Total Recall and TMT Part B change score and pre-treatment WMI volume were significantly negatively correlated on the HA-WBRT+Memantine arm (ρ=-0.22 p=0.042 and ρ=-0.27, p=0.013). At 12 months, both TMT Part A and TMT Part B change scores and pre-treatment WMI volume were significantly negatively correlated on the HA-WBRT+Memantine arm (ρ=-0.30, p=0.046 and ρ=-0.53, p&lt; 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Pre-treatment WMI volume was a significant imaging-biomarker predictor of post-treatment neurocognitive decline at 4-and 12-months following HA-WBRT+Memantine. This suggests patients with greater pre-treatment WMI were more susceptible to neurocognitive decline, specifically when undergoing HA-WBRT, but not following standard WBRT. Dose heterogeneity inherent to HA-WBRT delivery may contribute to these findings and are hypothesis generating.

Abstract Purpose: To quantitatively predict the impact of cardiopulmonary dose on overall survival (OS) after radiotherapy for locally advanced non–small cell lung cancer. Experimental Design: We used the NRG Oncology/RTOG 0617 dataset. The model building procedure was preregistered on a public website. Patients were split between a training and a set-aside validation subset (N = 306/131). The 191 candidate variables covered disease, patient, treatment, and dose-volume characteristics from multiple cardiopulmonary substructures (atria, lung, pericardium, and ventricles), including the minimum dose to the hottest x% volume (Dx%[Gy]), mean dose of the hottest x% (MOHx%[Gy]), and minimum, mean (Mean[Gy]), and maximum dose. The model building was based on Cox regression and given 191 candidate variables; a Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold of 0.0003 was used to identify predictors. To reduce overreliance on the most highly correlated variables, stepwise multivariable analysis (MVA) was repeated on 1000 bootstrapped replicates. Multivariate sets selected in ≥10% of replicates were fit to the training subset and then averaged to generate a final model. In the validation subset, discrimination was assessed using Harrell c-index, and calibration was tested using risk group stratification. Results: Four MVA models were identified on bootstrap. The averaged model included atria D45%[Gy], lung Mean[Gy], pericardium MOH55%[Gy], and ventricles MOH5%[Gy]. This model had excellent performance predicting OS in the validation subset (c = 0.89). Conclusions: The risk of death due to cardiopulmonary irradiation was accurately modeled, as demonstrated by predictions on the validation subset, and provides guidance on the delivery of safe thoracic radiotherapy.