Semenkovich, Nicholas P.

Abstract Introduction Sepsis, a dysregulated immune response to infection, accounts for nearly 11 million deaths worldwide each year and remains a major cause of hospital mortality. The absence of precision diagnostics limits efforts to characterize immune dynamics and predict clinical outcomes. We evaluated whether liquid biopsies collected at ICU admission could provide insight into sepsis biology and enable precision diagnostics. Methods We applied cell-free RNA (cfRNA) liquid biopsies as a noninvasive method to highlight signaling networks, identify tissue-specific injury, and predict immune exhaustion. We collected serial samples throughout hospitalization from a cohort of 100 patients admitted with likely sepsis to a medical ICU. Comprehensive clinical data, including inpatient laboratory values and key outcome measures such as survival and ventilator-free days, were curated. Circulating cfRNA was isolated and purified from these samples and prepared for sequencing. We generated data from 254 samples at a minimum sequencing depth of 30x. We then designed a novel deep-learning computational method to enable deconvolution to better analyze and interpret these data. Results In our cohort, a total of 84 patients were adjudicated to have sepsis by the Sepsis-3 criteria, and 25 patients died within 90 days. Differential analysis was performed comparing circulating cfRNA in these septic patients to that of healthy controls, stratified by mortality along with specified subgroups including shock on admission, ventilator dependence, and preexisting immunosuppression. We identified multiple differentially expressed transcripts between septic patients and healthy controls, with significant alterations in signaling cascades associated with mitochondrial signaling, including alterations in oxidative phosphorylation and fatty acid metabolism. Using defined ligand-receptor interaction databases, we identified key pathways associated with immune and endothelial dysfunction in sepsis. Specifically, our analysis identified numerous alterations in CXCL8 (IL-8)-associated signaling cascades (engaging CXCR1, CXCR2, SDC1-3, and ACKR). Our analyses also highlighted key tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI)-associated signaling via interactions with tissue factor and low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1). These analyses are corroborated by our new deep-learning augmented approach to deconvolution, where we demonstrate the identification of rare tissue- and cell-specific signals that are associated with increased mortality in our cohort. Conclusion Liquid biopsy approaches such as cfRNA profiling can provide insight into mechanisms underlying sepsis and may uncover underlying drivers of endothelial dysfunction. These findings support ongoing efforts to develop liquid biopsy-based diagnostics and personalized therapeutic strategies for patients at high risk for sepsis and related mortality. This abstract is funded by: NIH

Abstract Purpose: Circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE) is a machine learning–derived composite metric of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) burden. We hypothesized that pre-treatment and early on-treatment ctFE could robustly risk-stratify patients with locally advanced (LA) and oligometastatic non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiotherapy (RT). Experimental Design: In a prospective phase II clinical trial (NCT03916419), 26 patients with unresectable stage IIB to IIIC NSCLC received magnetic resonance (MR)-guided hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) followed by immunotherapy. Plasma ctDNA was profiled at baseline and mid-treatment (days 10–14) to derive ctFE and maximum variant allele frequency (Max VAF). A burden-based ctFE threshold derived from baseline samples was applied unchanged to mid-treatment samples and validated in two external cohorts: LA NSCLC treated with chemoRT (LA-RW; n = 94) and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT (OM-RW; n = 309). Results: Pre- and mid-treatment ctFE burden strongly stratified overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), outperforming Max VAF and ctFE detectability. The baseline ctFE was prognostic for OS (HR 5.93, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR 11.08, P < 0.001) and remained significant at mid-treatment (OS: HR 7.08; PFS: HR 12.06; both P < 0.001). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with OS separation (median OS 60.8 vs. 13.0 vs. 2.9 months; P < 0.001). ctFE remained associated with survival in both validation cohorts. Conclusions: Early ctFE derived from a clinically available, tumor-naïve ctDNA assay enables noninvasive risk stratification in LA and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT, supporting its use as a practical biomarker for precision treatment adaptation.

Abstract Background: Personalizing chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) is limited by the lack of early biomarkers that inform response during treatment. Current circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) molecular residual disease assays predict post-treatment outcomes but lack mid-treatment utility. ctDNA burden estimation has traditionally relied on variant-centric metrics such as maximum variant allele fraction (Max VAF), which rely on mutation-specific signals and may be confounded by histology-dependent shedding variability, allelic imbalance, and clonal hematopoiesis. Here we present circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE), a machine-learning composite score that integrates VAF distributions, copy-number alterations, and germline B-allele frequency deviations to approximate global tumor burden using a widely available, tumor-naïve clinical platform. Methods: A burden-based ctFE threshold was derived using pre-treatment plasma from a prospective phase II clinical trial of MR-guided hypofractionated chemoRT (LA-WU, n=26), locked, and applied unchanged to early mid-treatment samples (day 10-14). To test scalability and generalizability, its prognostic performance was validated in two real-world cohorts: 94 LA-NSCLC patients receiving definitive chemoRT (LA-RW) and 309 oligometastatic NSCLC patients receiving consolidative RT (OM-RW). ctFE and Max VAF were compared as continuous predictors across cohorts. Results: ctFE consistently outperformed Max VAF. In LA-WU, pre-treatment ctFE was associated with overall survival (OS HR=1.15, p=0.04) and progression-free survival (PFS HR=1.84, p=0.009), whereas Max VAF was not. Mid-treatment ctFE remained prognostic for PFS (HR=1.14, p=0.026). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with marked OS separation: consistently low, responder, and nonresponder groups (median OS 60.8 vs 13.0 vs 2.9 months, respectively; p<0.001). In multivariable models including both biomarkers, higher ctFE remained independently associated with worse survival in LA-RW (OS HR=1.88, p=0.010) and OM-RW (OS HR=1.37, p=0.040; PFS HR=1.45, p=0.008), whereas Max VAF did not. The locked ctFE threshold stratified OS across all cohorts (LA-WU HR=5.93; LA-RW HR=9.08; OM-RW HR=2.26; all p<0.001). Conclusion: ctFE provides clinically meaningful pre- and mid-treatment risk stratification and consistently outperforms Max VAF across locally advanced and oligometastatic NSCLC cohorts. We show that ctFE is a biologically informative, clinically generalizable and scalable ctDNA burden metric measurable using a tumor-naïve, off-the-shelf assay, supporting its practical utility in biomarker-adapted radiotherapy strategies. Citation Format: Ayesha Hashmi, Jessica Linford, Pradeep S. Chauhan, Kaushal Parikh, Rotem Ben-Shachar, John Guittar, Malvika Pillai, Jyoti Patel, Matteo Bergsagel, Nicholas P. Semenkovich, Kenneth R. Olivier, Sean S. Park, Dawn Owen, David M. Routman, Katie N. Lee, Alex D. Sherry, Aaron S. Mansfield, Daniel Morgensztern, Ramaswamy Govindan, Clifford G. Robinson, Carmen Bergom, Saiama N. Waqar, Bruna Pellini Ferreira, Gregory R. Vlacich, Aadel A. Chaudhuri. Early ctDNA quantification by ctFE outperforms Max VAF for survival stratification across locally advanced and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with radiotherapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 1183.

Abstract Background: Spatial cellular ecosystems in the tumor microenvironment (TME) form dynamic signaling hubs that critically influence cancer disease progression and response to therapy, including response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, tumor sampling bias and the impracticality of acquiring serial tumor biopsies have made it challenging to profile the TME clinically. To address this challenge, we developed Liquid EcoTyper, a multi-analyte AI framework to quantify TME spatial cellular ecosystems—termed spatial ecotypes (SEs)—noninvasively from cell-free DNA (cfDNA) methylation data. Methods: In previous work, we discovered nine spatial ecotypes, including SEs associated with ICI response (e.g., SE7 with benefit, SE4 with resistance), and quantified them from 1,249 bulk tumor RNA-seq profiles of melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and bladder cancer (BC) patients (Cancer Res (2025) 85 (8_Supplement_1): 153). Here we trained Liquid EcoTyper, an interpretable deep learning model, to transfer SE profiling to cell-free DNA using CpG methylation profiles. Performance was quantified using simulated and real data, including methylation profiles (EM-seq) of plasma cfDNA paired with tumor biopsy-derived SE levels determined by EM-seq (n=20 pairs) or 10x Visium (n=15 pairs). Clinical outcome prediction was evaluated using pretreatment plasma from patients treated with ICI alone (n=78 melanoma pts), chemotherapy and ICI (n=25 NSCLC pts), and enfortumab vedotin and ICI (n=10 localized muscle-invasive BC (MIBC) pts). Tumor mutational burden (TMB), tumor PD-L1, or circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) were profiled as a comparator where possible. Results: We observed striking concordance between plasma-derived SE levels and tumor biopsy-confirmed SE levels from the same patients, demonstrating that liquid biopsy analysis of cfDNA methylomes can recapitulate TME spatial biology. Underscoring specificity, no reliable SE signal was detectable from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. In pre-ICI plasma, liquid SE levels were significantly associated with ICI-based response (SE7) versus resistance (SE4) in patients with melanoma, NSCLC, and MIBC, with a mean cross-cancer area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 for SE7 (range 0.8-0.97) and 0.81 for SE4 (range 0.76-0.85)—far surpassing TMB, tumor PD-L1, and ctDNA in evaluable patients, both in binary analyses of response and multivariable models of survival. Our results also showed potential to predict pathologic complete response in the neoadjuvant setting. Conclusion: Liquid EcoTyper is a scalable noninvasive AI-based framework for spatiotemporal assessment of the TME. By enabling TME-informed risk stratification without surgical biopsies, Liquid EcoTyper has potential to enable more precise and actionable decision making in patients with solid tumors. Citation Format: Erin L. Brown, Wubing Zhang, Abul Usmani, Noah Earland, Ayesha Hashmi, Chibuzor Olelewe, Anushka Viswanathan, Pradeep S. Chauhan, Minji Kang, Chloé B. Steen, Hyun Soo Jeon, Susanna Avagyan, Irfan Alahi, Nicholas P. Semenkovich, Matteo Bergsagel, Janella C. Schwab, Chloe M. Sachs, Faridi Qaium, Peter K. Harris, Antonella Bacchiocchi, Qingyuan Cai, Andrew J. Gentles, Rondell P. Graham, Peter C. Lucas, Ryan C. Fields, Jacob J. Orme, Aaron S. Mansfield, Mario Sznol, Ruth Halaban, David Y. Chen, Aaron M. Newman, Aadel A. Chaudhuri. Liquid biopsy profiling of the tumor microenvironment to determine response to immunotherapy regimens across solid tumors [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 94.

Background: Multicellular programs in the tumor microenvironment (TME) drive cancer pathogenesis and response to therapy but remain challenging to identify and profile clinically. Here, we present Spatial EcoTyper, a multimodal machine learning framework for large-scale profiling of spatially dependent cell states and multicellular ecosystems, termed spatial ecotypes (SEs). Methods and Findings: By integrating five million single-cell and spot-level spatial transcriptomes from 10 diverse human neoplasms, including carcinomas and melanomas, we identified a rich tapestry of conserved regional plasticity across nine TME cell types. We then applied Spatial EcoTyper to deeply dissect these data, revealing nine novel SEs with broad conservation - each with unique biology, TME cell states, geospatial features, and clinical outcome associations. SEs were linked to specific biogeographic domains, including the tumor core, margin, and adjacent stroma, and were remarkably well-validated in 235 held-out tumor samples profiled by either single-cell RNA sequencing, sequencing-based spatial transcriptomics (10x Visium), or high-resolution imaging-based spatial transcriptomics (Vizgen MERSCOPE and NanoString CosMx). By deconvolving SEs from over 1,200 bulk tumor RNA-seq profiles, we discovered striking associations between SE levels and response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), outperforming nearly 40 potential correlates of ICI response, including previously described signatures of tertiary lymphoid structures and tumor tissue PD-L1 expression. Notably, baseline levels of a proinflammatory SE - localized to the tumor core and defined by a hub of unique T cell, macrophage, fibroblast, and endothelial cell states - strongly forecasted ICI benefit, while another SE - localized to the tumor margin and defined by myofibroblast and hypoxia-associated endothelial cell states - portended ICI resistance. Conclusion: Our data reveal fundamental units of TME organization and demonstrate a platform for large-scale profiling of spatial cellular ecosystems in any tissue, with implications for improved forecasting of immunotherapy response and the development of novel therapeutic strategies. Citation Format: Wubing Zhang,Erin L. Brown,Abul Usmani,Noah Earland,Hyun Soo Jeon,Irfan Alahi,Nicholas P. Semenkovich,Janella C. Schwab,Chloé B. Steen,Chloe M. Sachs,Bilge Gungoren,Faridi Qaium,Peter K. Harris,Jacqueline Mudd,Qingyuan Cai,Antonella Bacchiocchi,Ryan C. Fields,Mario Sznol,Ruth Halaban,David Y. Chen,Aadel A. Chaudhuri,Aaron M. Newman. High-resolution profiling of the tumor microenvironment with spatial ecotypes [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 153.

This Viewpoint discusses the clinical and socioeconomic potential of multicancer detection liquid biopsies.