Timm, Paul

Background: Estimating operative time with low accuracy and precision leads to suboptimal scheduling of available operating rooms (ORs) and waste of healthcare resources. We aimed to develop a predictive machine learning (ML) model for operative time using our institutional data to improve the scheduling of neurosurgical ORs, minimize waste, and maximize resource utilization. Methods: We developed a predictive model using our institution’s multicenter registry, which included diverse neurosurgical cases across three tertiary hospitals. We applied multiple ML techniques, including linear regression, support vector regression, deep neural networks, and extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR). The best model was combined with the first fit decreasing bin-packing algorithm to create a practical OR scheduling system based on prior data. Results: The XGBR model exhibited the best performance, with lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) (root mean squared error: 52.24, MAE: 37.25) and higher R2 (0.76) values than other models. Implementing this model in a simulated OR scheduling scenario using institutional data, we successfully scheduled 30 random procedures with minimal residual time, such that the model ran out of procedures for the week with 86 and 171 min remaining in the cranial and spinal ORs, respectively, demonstrating potential efficiency gains. The cranial procedures were scheduled over 4 days and spinal procedures over 6 days, optimizing available OR time. Conclusion: Integrating ML models into operative time prediction can significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of surgical schedules. This approach minimizes wasted OR time and enhances resource allocation, potentially improving patient outcomes and satisfaction by reducing waiting times.

Abstract Study Objectives Rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is strongly associated with phenoconversion to an overt synucleinopathy, e.g. Parkinson’s disease (PD), Lewy body dementia, and related disorders. Comorbid traumatic brain injury (TBI) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)—henceforth “neurotrauma” (NT)—increase the odds of RBD by ~2.5-fold and are associated with an increased rate of service-connected PD in Veterans. Thus, RBD and NT are both independently associated with PD; however, it is unclear how NT influences neurological function in patients with RBD. Methods Participants ≥18 years with overnight polysomnogram-confirmed RBD were enrolled between 8/2018 to 4/2021 through the North American Prodromal Synucleinopathy Consortium. Standardized assessments for RBD, TBI, and PTSD history, as well as cognitive, motor, sensory, and autonomic function, were completed. This cross-sectional analysis compared cases (n = 24; RBD + NT) to controls (n = 96; RBD), matched for age (~60 years), sex (15% female), and years of education (~15 years). Results RBD + NT reported earlier RBD symptom onset (37.5 ± 11.9 vs. 52.2 ± 15.1 years of age) and a more severe RBD phenotype. Similarly, RBD + NT reported more severe anxiety and depression, greater frequency of hypertension, and significantly worse cognitive, motor, and autonomic function compared to RBD. No differences in olfaction or color vision were observed. Conclusions This cross-sectional, matched case:control study shows individuals with RBD + NT have significantly worse neurological measures related to common features of an overt synucleinopathy. Confirmatory longitudinal studies are ongoing; however, these results suggest RBD + NT may be associated with more advanced neurological symptoms related to an evolving neurodegenerative process.