Mason, Andrew L.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)–free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0–1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1–2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9–62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR −0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7–11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0–1 was −0.27 (IQR −0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0–1 2 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81–2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0–1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1–2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67–2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

SummaryBackgroundAfter 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may have a normal GLOBE score despite high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels.AimTo assess the association between ALP and liver transplantation (LT)‐free survival according to the GLOBE scoreMethodsAmong patients with a normal or elevated GLOBE score in the Global PBC cohort, the association between ALP after 1 year of UDCA and the risk of LT/death was assessed. The LT‐free survival was compared with that of a matched general population.ResultsAfter 1 year of UDCA, ALP was associated with the risk of LT/death (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.003–1.72, p = 0.048) among 2729 patients with a normal GLOBE score. The 10‐year LT‐free survival among these patients with an ALP >2.0 × ULN was 94.0% (95% CI 90.1–97.9) for those <50 years, and 82.6% (95% CI 76.5–88.7) for those ≥50 years, which was significantly lower (p = 0.040) and similar (p = 0.736) to that of the matched population, respectively. The 10‐year LT‐free survival in patients ≥50 years with normal GLOBE score and normal ALP (90.8%, 95% CI 87.7–93.9) was significantly higher (p = 0.022) than the matched population. Among 1045 patients with an elevated GLOBE score, ALP was associated with LT/death only in those <50 years (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06–1.81, p = 0.016).ConclusionThe LT‐free survival of patients with PBC with a normal GLOBE score is optimal in case of normal ALP levels, also in relation to the general population. Despite their generally favourable prognosis, an elevated ALP level may still indicate a need for add‐on therapy.

Autoimmune liver disease (AILD) spans a spectrum of chronic disorders affecting the liver parenchyma and biliary system. Three main categories of AILD are autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This review condenses the presentation and discussions of the Single Topic Conference (STC) on AILD that was held in Ottawa, Ontario, in November 2019. We cover generalities regarding disease presentation and clinical diagnosis; mechanistic themes; treatment paradigms; clinical trials, including approaches and challenges to new therapies; and looking beyond traditional disease boundaries. Although these diseases are considered autoimmune, the etiology and role of environmental triggers are poorly understood. AILDs are progressive and chronic conditions that affect survival and quality of life. Advances have been made in PBC treatment because second-line treatments are now available (obeticholic acid, bezafibrate); however, a significant proportion still present suboptimal response. AIH treatment has remained unchanged for several decades, and data suggest that fewer than 50% of patients achieve a complete response and as many as 80% develop treatment-related side effects. B-cell depletion therapy to treat AIH is in an early stage of development and has shown promising results. An effective treatment for PSC is urgently needed. Liver transplant remains the best option for patients who develop decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma within specific criteria, but recurrent AILD might occur. Continued efforts are warranted to develop networks for AILD aimed at assessing geo-epidemiological, clinical, and biochemical differences to capture the new treatment era in Canada.

Objective The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1–12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2–4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

SummaryBackgroundVitamin D deficiency has been implicated in the outcome of chronic liver disease.AimTo determine the frequency of severe vitamin D deficiency in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), assess its association with treatment non‐response, and evaluate the relationship between vitamin D status and liver‐related mortality and need for transplantation.MethodsTwo hundred and nine patients were evaluated by liver tissue examination at presentation. Serum vitamin D levels were determined, and serum levels <25 nmol/L (10 ng/mL) were considered severely deficient. Treatment non‐response was defined as non‐normalised aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase and immunoglobulin G levels during conventional immunosuppressive therapy. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using binary logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsThe mean vitamin D level was 60 ± 38 nmol/L (range, 3‐263 nmol/L), and 42 patients (20%) had severe vitamin D deficiency. Treatment non‐response was more common in patients with severe vitamin D deficiency than in patients without (59% vs 41%, P = 0.04). Severe vitamin D deficiency was also independently associated with a higher risk of developing cirrhosis (HR 3.40; 95% CI 1.30‐8.87, P = 0.01) and liver‐related mortality or requirement for liver transplantation (LT; HR 5.26, 95% CI, 1.54‐18.0, P = 0.008). Patients with persistent severe deficiency following vitamin D supplementation continued to have poor outcomes.ConclusionsSevere vitamin D deficiency is associated with treatment non‐response, progression to cirrhosis, and liver‐related death or need for LT. Severe vitamin D deficiency is a prognostic biomarker in AIH.

Changes over time in the presenting features and clinical course of patients with primary biliary cholangitis are poorly described. We sought to describe temporal trends in patient and disease characteristics over a 44‐year period across a large international primary biliary cholangitis cohort of 4,805 patients diagnosed between 1970 and 2014, from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients were divided into five cohorts according to their year of diagnosis: 1970‐1979 (n = 143), 1980‐1989 (n = 858), 1990‐1999 (n = 1,754), 2000‐2009 (n = 1,815), and ≥2010 (n = 235). Age at diagnosis, disease stage, response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and clinical outcomes were compared. Mean age at diagnosis increased incrementally by 2‐3 years per decade from 46.9 ± 10.1 years in the 1970s to 57.0 ± 12.1 years from 2010 onward (P < 0.001). The female to male ratio (9:1) and antimitochondrial antibody positivity (90%) were not significantly variable. The proportion of patients presenting with mild biochemical disease (according to Rotterdam staging) increased from 41.3% in the 1970s to 72.2% in the 1990s (P < 0.001) and remained relatively stable thereafter. Patients with a mild histological stage at diagnosis increased from 60.4% (1970‐1989) to 76.5% (1990‐2014) (P < 0.001). Correspondingly, response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to Paris‐I criteria increased; 51.7% in the 1970s and 70.5% in the 1990s (P < 0.001). Recent decades were also characterized by lower decompensation rates (18.5% in the 1970s to 5.8% in the 2000s, P < 0.001) and higher 10‐year transplant‐free survival (48.4%, 68.7%, 79.7%, and 80.1% for each respective cohort; P < 0.001). Conclusion: In recent decades, a pattern of primary biliary cholangitis presentation consistent with an older age at diagnosis alongside reduced disease severity has been noted; the observed trends may be explained by an increase in routine testing of liver function and/or a changing environmental trigger. (Hepatology 2018;67:1920‐1930).

Objective Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a genetically complex, inflammatory bile duct disease of largely unknown aetiology often leading to liver transplantation or death. Little is known about the genetic contribution to the severity and progression of PSC. The aim of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with PSC disease progression and development of complications. Design We collected standardised PSC subphenotypes in a large cohort of 3402 patients with PSC. After quality control, we combined 130 422 single nucleotide polymorphisms of all patients—obtained using the Illumina immunochip—with their disease subphenotypes. Using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, we identified genetic variants associated with binary and time-to-event PSC subphenotypes. Results We identified genetic variant rs853974 to be associated with liver transplant-free survival (p=6.07×10–9). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a 50.9% (95% CI 41.5% to 59.5%) transplant-free survival for homozygous AA allele carriers of rs853974 compared with 72.8% (95% CI 69.6% to 75.7%) for GG carriers at 10 years after PSC diagnosis. For the candidate gene in the region, RSPO3, we demonstrated expression in key liver-resident effector cells, such as human and murine cholangiocytes and human hepatic stellate cells. Conclusion We present a large international PSC cohort, and report genetic loci associated with PSC disease progression. For liver transplant-free survival, we identified a genome-wide significant signal and demonstrated expression of the candidate gene RSPO3 in key liver-resident effector cells. This warrants further assessments of the role of this potential key PSC modifier gene.

Objective Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. Design Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). Conclusions This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

Introduction Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important but infrequent outcome in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). Improved risk evaluation is an important goal for stratified surveillance. Methods Risk-factor analysis of the ‘Global PBC Study Group’ comprising 15 centres across North America and Europe spanning >40-years follow-up was performed using Cox proportional hazards model, logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates (SPSSv21). Results Of 3546 patients with PBC (med. follow-up 8.6 yrs; IQR 4.4–14.1), 131 developed HCC. Excluding those who developed HCC within 12 months of PBC diagnosis (n = 23), median time to HCC was 12.7 yrs (6.9–16.8) and subsequent survival 1.1 yrs. (0.2–2.7). At diagnosis, factors associated with HCC development were male gender (adj. HR: 4.4;1.4–12.2, p = 0.014) and thrombocytopenia (adj. HR: 4.5;1.4–14.8, p = 0.012). Use of ursodeoxycholic acid per-se was not associated with future risk of HCC, but stratification of risk by biochemical response at 12 months was effective by Rotterdam (adj. HR: 8.9;2.1–37.3, P = 0.003), Paris-I (adj. HR: 7.6;2.0–29.0, p = 0.003) or Toronto criteria (HR: 5.6;1.6–18.8, P = 0.006). Five (4.6 vs. 0.2%) and 10-year (13%vs.1.9%) HCC incidence was significantly increased for biochemical non-responders (p = 2.2 × 10 –9 ), and by multivariate analysis non-response remained the only significant risk factor. Conclusion Our uniquely powered cohort allows robust demonstration that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with an increased risk of developing HCC in PBC. Routine surveillance in those achieving biochemical response is unlikely cost-effective. Disclosure of Interest None Declared.