Hirschfield, Gideon M

SummaryBackgroundAfter 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may have a normal GLOBE score despite high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels.AimTo assess the association between ALP and liver transplantation (LT)‐free survival according to the GLOBE scoreMethodsAmong patients with a normal or elevated GLOBE score in the Global PBC cohort, the association between ALP after 1 year of UDCA and the risk of LT/death was assessed. The LT‐free survival was compared with that of a matched general population.ResultsAfter 1 year of UDCA, ALP was associated with the risk of LT/death (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.003–1.72, p = 0.048) among 2729 patients with a normal GLOBE score. The 10‐year LT‐free survival among these patients with an ALP >2.0 × ULN was 94.0% (95% CI 90.1–97.9) for those <50 years, and 82.6% (95% CI 76.5–88.7) for those ≥50 years, which was significantly lower (p = 0.040) and similar (p = 0.736) to that of the matched population, respectively. The 10‐year LT‐free survival in patients ≥50 years with normal GLOBE score and normal ALP (90.8%, 95% CI 87.7–93.9) was significantly higher (p = 0.022) than the matched population. Among 1045 patients with an elevated GLOBE score, ALP was associated with LT/death only in those <50 years (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06–1.81, p = 0.016).ConclusionThe LT‐free survival of patients with PBC with a normal GLOBE score is optimal in case of normal ALP levels, also in relation to the general population. Despite their generally favourable prognosis, an elevated ALP level may still indicate a need for add‐on therapy.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is strongly associated with several human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes. Due to extensive linkage disequilibrium and multiple polymorphic candidate genes in the HLA complex, identifying the alleles responsible for these associations has proven difficult. We aimed to evaluate whether studying populations of admixed or non‐European descent could help in defining the causative HLA alleles. When assessing haplotypes carrying HLA‐DRB1*13:01 (hypothesized to specifically increase the susceptibility to chronic cholangitis), we observed that every haplotype in the Scandinavian PSC population carried HLA‐DQB1*06:03. In contrast, only 65% of HLA‐DRB1*13:01 haplotypes in an admixed/non‐European PSC population carried this allele, suggesting that further assessments of the PSC‐associated haplotype HLA‐DRB1*13:01‐DQA1*01:03‐DQB1*06:03 in admixed or multi‐ethnic populations could aid in identifying the causative allele.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare, but serious, cholestatic disease for which, to date, no effective therapy exists to halt disease progression toward end‐stage liver disease. Clinical trial design to study drugs that improve prognosis is hampered by the relatively low event rate of clinically relevant endpoints. To overcome this shortcoming, there is an urgent need to identify appropriate surrogate endpoints. At present, there are no established surrogate endpoints. This article provides a critical review and describes the results of a consensus process initiated by the International PSC Study Group to delineate appropriate candidate surrogate endpoints at present for clinical trials in this frequently dismal disease. The consensus process resulted in a shortlist of five candidates as surrogate endpoints for measuring disease progression: alkaline phosphatase (ALP); transient elastography (TE); histology; combination of ALP+histology; and bilirubin. Of these, histology, ALP, and TE came out as the most promising. However, the expert panel concluded that no biomarker currently exceeds level 3 validation. Combining multiple endpoints is advisable. Conclusion: At present, there are insufficient data to support level 2 validation for any surrogate endpoint in PSC. Concerted efforts by all stakeholders are highly needed. Novel, promising noninvasive biomarkers are under study and should be incorporated as exploratory endpoints in clinical trials. (Hepatology 2016;63:1357–1367)

SummaryBackgroundThe relationships between primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and the environment are largely unknown.AimTo validate associations reported in previous studies and to identify novel environmental exposures among PSC patients.MethodsWe performed a multicenter, case–control analysis utilising self‐administered questionnaires. Responses between cases (n = 1000) and controls (n = 663) were compared using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age and gender. The model was further stratified based on inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) status (with IBD n = 741 without IBD n = 259).ResultsSmoking was associated with PSC only when IBD was present (OR, 0.5; 95% CI 0.4–0.7) but not among those PSC patients without IBD (OR, 0.9; 95% CI 0.7–1.2). Compared to controls, women with PSC (irrespective of the presence of IBD) were less likely to have received hormone replacement therapy (HRT; OR, 0.5; 95% CI 0.4–0.7) and were more likely to have recurrent urinary tract infections (OR, 1.6; 95% CI 1.2–2.3). PSC patients regardless of gender or IBD status were less likely to eat fish (OR, 0.4; 95% CI 0.3–0.6) and grilled/barbecued meat (OR, 0.8; 95% CI 0.7–0.9). In contrast, PSC patients with and without IBD were more likely to consume steak/burgers that were more well done (OR, 1.3; 95% CI 1.2–1.5).ConclusionsIBD (rather than PSC) is associated with smoking. Women with PSC are more likely to have recurrent urinary tract infections and less likely to receive HRT. Dietary intake and methods of food preparation differ in PSC patients when compared to controls.

Objective Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. Design Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). Conclusions This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.