Lutsey, Pamela L.

Abstract Introduction Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is a potentially modifiable risk factor for the prevention of dementia, of which Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause. However, there is a lack of longitudinal evidence relating SDB to AD pathology >20 years later. We examined the association between late-midlife SDB and late-life brain β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition—a hallmark of AD—assessed approximately 23 years later. Methods The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study is an ongoing prospective cohort study initiated in 1987. Participants at two ARIC sites (Washington County, Maryland; Minneapolis, Minnesota) with primarily White participants also completed polysomnography (PSG) in the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) in 1995-98. SDB measures included apnea-hypopnea index (AHI; number of apneas + hypopneas with ≥3% oxygen desaturation/hour of sleep), arousal index, and percentage of total sleep time in apnea, in hypopnea, and with oxygen saturation < 90%. A subset of participants completed florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET) scans through several ARIC ancillary studies (2011-2025 including the ARIC Sleep-PET study). We defined Aβ deposition as a global standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) >1.2 (vs. SUVR ≤1.2). We used Poisson regression with robust standard errors to estimate relative risk (RR) of Aβ deposition by SDB, adjusting for demographics and vascular risk factors, and applied inverse probability attrition weighting to account for selective drop-out. Results Among 186 dementia-free participants (mean age=59 years at PSG and 82 years at PET scan, 58% female, 98% White), every 10% increase in total sleep time in hypopnea was associated with higher risk of Aβ deposition (RR=1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 1.91). When compared to no SDB (AHI < 5), moderate to severe SDB (AHI ≥15) was associated with elevated Aβ deposition (RR=2.36, 95% CI: 1.22, 4.57); mild SDB (AHI 5 to < 15) was not (RR=1.05, 95% CI: 0.53, 2.07). Conclusion SDB in late midlife was associated with greater risk of Aβ deposition approximately 23 years later. SDB may play a role in the early stages of AD pathogenesis. Future longitudinal studies are needed to optimize strategies for screening and treating SDB for dementia prevention. Support (if any) Supported in part by RF1AG050745.

Abstract Background and aims Dementia represents a growing global health burden, with vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease accounting for most cases through cumulative cerebrovascular damage. While periodontal disease (PD) is associated with cognitive decline, dental caries represents a distinct oral infection pathway characterized by bacterial invasion and infection, potentially contributing to vascular brain injury through microbial translocation, endothelial dysfunction, systemic inflammation, and cerebral microvascular damage. The relationship between dental caries and incident dementia within a vascular framework remains understudied. Methods We analyzed 6,542 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study who received dental examinations at Visit 4 (1996–1998) and followed for incident dementia through 2023 using standardized surveillance (Figure-1). Cox proportional hazards models with competing risk accounted for death. Multivariable models adjusted for demographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, BMI, physical activity, education, income, insurance status, APOE4 genotype, PD, and regular dental care. Results Mean age was 62.4 years; 54% female, 82% White, and 18% Black. Dental caries was present in 20%. Over median 25-year follow-up, individuals with dental caries demonstrated significantly higher cumulative dementia incidence (Gray’s test p<0.0001). After full adjustment, dental caries remained independently associated with increased dementia risk (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42), independent of PD and APOE4 status (Figure-2). Conclusions Dental caries was independently associated with increased incident dementia risk. These findings support a potential role for caries-related oral infection in vascular brain injury pathways relevant to vascular dementia and stroke-related cognitive impairment. Oral infection prevention may represent a modifiable target within cerebrovascular disease prevention strategies. Conflict of interest Alana E. Barton, Souvik Sen, Kevin Moss, James Selph, Ryan Demmer, Pamela L. Lutsey, Priya Palta, Kamakshi Lakshminarayan, Karly Pikel, Wayne Rosamond: nothing to disclose Figure 1 - belongs to Conclusions Figure 2 - belongs to Conclusions

Abstract Background and aims Systemic inflammation has been implicated in cognitive decline and dementia pathogenesis. Interleukin-6 (IL-6), a pro-inflammatory cytokine associated with cardiovascular disease, may play a role in cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative processes. We examined the relationship between IL-6 levels and incident dementia risk using the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study. Methods ARIC study participants at Visit 4 (1996-1998) had IL-6 measurements and were followed for incident dementia over 25 years. IL-6 levels were dichotomized at the median value of 1.5 pg/mL. Incident dementia cases were identified through standardized surveillance. Cox proportional hazards regression calculated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for age, race, gender, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, physical activity, smoking, alcohol use, education, income, insurance status, and ApoE-ε4 allele status. Results Participants (n=5,662; mean age 62.4±5.6 years, 55% female, 83% White, 17% Black) were followed for a median of 25 years. Those with IL-6 >1.5 pg/mL demonstrated significantly increased dementia risk versus IL-6 ≤1.5 pg/mL. The crude HR was 1.23 (95% CI 1.11-1.37). After adjustment, the association remained significant with HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.01-1.27). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed progressive divergence between groups, with lower dementia-free survival in the higher IL-6 group, log-rank p<0.001. Conclusions Elevated mid-life IL-6 levels (>1.5 pg/mL) independently predict increased long-term dementia risk over 25 years, even after adjusting for cardiovascular and sociodemographic confounders. These findings support systemic inflammation's role in dementia pathogenesis and highlight IL-6 as a potential biomarker for dementia risk. Conflict of interest Karly Pikel, Natasha Carmichael, Alana E. Barton, Kevin Moss, Christine Downey, Ryan T. Demmer, Pamela L. Lutsey, Souvik Sen: Nothing to disclose Figure 1 - belongs to Conclusions

Introduction: Diabetes, a modifiable risk factor for dementia, is thought to impart increased risk of dementia through cerebral small vessel disease. While the importance of diabetes in midlife is well-documented, the influence of different glycemic levels, duration of diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease genetic risk (apolipoprotein [ APOE ] ε4 genotype) in late-life on dementia risk remains uncertain. This could have implications for individualized prevention strategies. In this study, we investigated whether a higher glycemic level and longer duration of diabetes in late-life is associated with a higher risk of dementia, and whether associations vary by APOE ε4 genotype. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort analysis with the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study using up to 11 years of follow-up (baseline, 2011-2013). We defined diabetes as glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA 1c ) ≥6.5%, self-reported physician diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication. Among those with diabetes, we categorized participants as having a lower glycemic level (HbA 1c <7%) or higher level (HbA 1c ≥7%), and duration as short (<5 years) or long (≥5 years). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for incident dementia by HbA 1c levels and by diabetes duration in separate multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. We tested for statistical multiplicative interaction on the relative risk of dementia by fitting interaction terms between diabetes measures and APOE ε4 genotype in separate regression models. Results: In 5030 participants without dementia (mean age, 75.4 years; 58.6% female; 21% Black; 28% with diabetes), there were 1167 (23.2%) incident dementia cases over a median follow-up of 9.0 years. Compared to no diabetes, a lower glycemic level and higher level were both associated with elevated dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). A higher glycemic level was associated with an elevated risk of dementia relative to a lower level (HR=1.47 [95% CI: 1.22-1.77]; Table). Compared to no diabetes, both shorter duration and longer duration were associated with an increase in dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). Longer duration was associated with an increased risk of dementia relative to shorter duration (HR=1.57 [95% CI: 1.24-1.98]; Table). Associations for glycemic level and diabetes duration did not significantly differ by APOE ε4 genotype (all P >.05). Conclusions: Diabetes management in older adults that includes lower glycemic goals may help reduce dementia risk.

Introduction: Abnormal sleep has been linked to increased dementia risk, but the pathophysiological processes driving this connection are unclear. To provide insight into the biological pathways underlying the relationship between sleep and brain health, we tested the hypothesis that increased obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity and shorter habitual sleep duration are associated with a higher burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology, neurodegeneration, and neuroinflammation measured through plasma biomarkers. Methods: ARIC participants who took part in the Sleep Heart Health Study at Visit 4 (1996-98) with stored plasma samples at Visit 3 (1993-95) and Visit 5 (2011-13) were examined (n=261; mean age 61.3 years; 43.3% male). OSA severity, categorized based on the number of apneas and hypopneas per hour of sleep (<5 events/hour [Normal], 5 to <15 events/hour [Mild OSA], or ≥15 events/hour [Moderate/Severe OSA]) was assessed via in-home polysomnography, and average habitual sleep duration (<7 hours, 7 to <8 hours, or ≥8 hours) was self-reported. Plasma biomarkers of amyloid beta (Aβ) 42 and 40, phosphorylated Tau 181 (p-Tau181), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were measured using Quanterix Simoa immunoassays. Covariate-adjusted linear regression models estimated associations of sleep indices in 1996-98 with standardized plasma biomarker measurements in 1993-95 (3 years earlier) and in 2011-13 (15 years later). Covariate-adjusted linear mixed effects models quantified associations of sleep measures with the 5-year rates of change in standardized biomarker levels (1993-2013). Results: Compared to a habitual sleep duration of 8 hours or more, sleeping less than 7 hours per night was associated with higher NfL, a biomarker of neurodegeneration, 15 years later (β = 0.252; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.003, 0.501). Sleep indices were not associated with biomarker levels 3 years earlier. Counter to our hypothesis, Moderate/Severe OSA was associated with slower increases in p-Tau181 (β = -0.102; 95% CI: -0.198, -0.006), a biomarker of AD pathology, over a median of 17.9 years. Conclusions: Short habitual sleep duration may impact dementia outcomes through neurodegenerative and other processes rather than through pathways specific to AD pathology or neuroinflammation. Longitudinal studies with sleep measurements in larger, more diverse samples are needed to further distinguish the pathways linking sleep to dementia.

Introduction: Plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), including amyloid-β (Aβ42/Aβ40), phosphorylated tau (p-tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have shown strong reliability in predicting dementia risk. White matter hyperintensities (WMH) represent a major vascular contributor to dementia. We investigated how plasma biomarkers of AD interact with WMH on MRI to influence incident dementia risk. Methods: We included dementia-free participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study who underwent MRI and plasma biomarker assessment at Visit 5 (2011–2013). WMH was quantified and considered continuously (log-transformed and standardized), and in tertiles. Plasma biomarkers were log-base-2-transformed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate dementia risk over 10 years associated with plasma biomarkers and WMH, independently and multiplicatively. Models were adjusted for demographic variables (age, sex, race, and education), vascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate), and APOE ε4 status. Results: Among 1,538 participants (aged 67- 90 years, 29% Black), 30% ( N = 462) developed dementia over the 10-year follow-up period. For every doubling of plasma Aβ42/Aβ40 , indicating lower amyloid burden, dementia risk decreased, while doubling of p-tau 181 , NfL, and GFAP were each associated with increased dementia risk, in separate models; each of these associations was independent of WMH (Table 1). Additionally, dementia risk increased per SD increase in WMH, independent of each plasma biomarker. Although no multiplicative interaction terms reached statistical significance (p<0.05), there was suggestive evidence that Aβ42/Aβ40 and GFAP have smaller effect sizes on dementia risk in subgroups at the highest WMH tertile (p-interactions<0.10; see Table 2). Discussion: Plasma biomarkers and WMH independently predict dementia risk over 10 years, though there remained limited evidence of multiplicative effects. Plasma biomarkers may be less important for dementia risk in individuals who also have extensive WMH. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating both AD-specific plasma markers as well as indicators of cerebral small vessel disease, such as WMH, into dementia risk profiling.

Background: Periodontitis is a potential modifiable factor influencing dementia risk. We examined whether improving periodontal health via regular flossing is associated with lower dementia risk. Methods: A total of 9,766 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with teeth were followed from visit 4 (1996-1998) through 2021. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate associations between regular dental flossing (≥1/week) and incident dementia. Covariates included age, race, gender, hypertension, diabetes, alcohol use, smoking status, obesity, physical activity, education level, income, insurance status, brushing frequency, regular dental care use and apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) allele status . Cumulative incidence functions were estimated using death as a competing event. Results: Participants had mean age 62.6 years (SD = 5.6), 56% female, 79% white, 21% black, 63% reported regular flossing and 29.2% participants carry at least one APOE4 allele. The cumulative incidence of dementia was 52.6 % overall over 25 years. Regular flossing was independently and significantly associated with a lower hazard of developing dementia (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82–0.98, p = 0.02) after adjustment for all the covariates. In contrast, tooth brushing frequency (p=0.55) and regular dental care visit (p=0.22) were not significantly associated with dementia risk. By 25 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of dementia was 50% among flossers compared with 57% among non-flossers (Gray’s test p<0.0001, Figure). This translated to an Absolute Risk Reduction of 7%, Relative Risk Reduction of 12%, Number Needed to Floss 14. Conclusion: Flossing, but not tooth brushing or regular dental care, is independently associated with a reduced hazard of incident dementia. Dental flossing may be an additional strategy to reduce dementia risk. For every 14 individuals who floss ≥1/week, one fewer person will develop dementia.

Abstract Background Plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and neurodegeneration provide a non‐invasive method to assess brain pathology associated with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it remains unclear whether these biomarkers are differentially associated with changes in specific cognitive domains or how they relate to subsequent cognitive change in participants with or without cognitive impairment. Methods Plasma biomarkers were assayed in a subset of ARIC participants using Quanterix SiMoA technology on stored specimens collected in midlife (visit 3: 1993‐95, mean age: 59) and late‐life (visit 5: 2011‐13, mean age: 77). Biomarkers included amyloid‐β 42 to amyloid‐β 40 (Aβ42:Aβ40) ratio, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 ( p ‐Tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Factor scores for global cognition and cognitive domains (memory, language, executive function) were calculated from ten neuropsychological tests administered at visits 5 (2011‐13), 6 (2016‐17), 7 (2018‐19), 8 (2020), and 9 (2021‐22). Linear mixed effects models with multiple imputation of pre‐death cognitive change estimated the association between biomarkers in midlife and late‐life, and biomarker change from midlife to late‐life, with 5‐year change in late‐life global and domain‐specific cognition, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors, and APOE‐ε4 status. Exploratory analyses examined effect modification of the biomarker‐global cognition associations by visit 5 adjudicated cognitive impairment. Results Among 1515 participants with plasma biomarkers (60.7% female, 25.5% identified as Black), 39% had late‐life cognitive impairment (Table 1). Higher midlife NfL and GFAP were associated with faster 5‐year declines in global cognition and language during late‐life (Table 2). Only midlife NfL was associated with faster late‐life memory decline. No midlife biomarkers were associated with executive function. In late‐life, lower Aβ42:Aβ40 and higher p ‐Tau 181, NfL, and GFAP were associated with faster declines in global cognition, memory, and language. Midlife to late‐life changes in p ‐Tau 181, NfL, and GFAP were associated with declines in global cognition and language. No consistent effect modification by cognitive impairment was observed (Figure 1). Conclusions Plasma biomarkers of AD pathology, neuronal injury, and astrogliosis, measured at different life epochs (midlife vs. late‐life) show distinct association patterns with subsequent changes in cognitive function across domains.

Abstract Background Plasma biomarkers show promise as a noninvasive method for measuring Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration throughout the lifecourse. However, the relationship between longitudinal changes in these biomarkers and late‐life brain morphology in community‐dwelling populations requires further investigation. Method Between 2011 and 2013, 1,977 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study received an adjudicated cognitive diagnosis and underwent 3 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging scans. Whole‐brain cortical thickness was quantified by Freesurfer. Stored plasma samples collected in midlife (1993‐95, mean age 59.0 years) and late‐life (2011‐13, mean age 76.8 years) from a subsample of 1,515 participants were assayed in 2022 using Quanterix SiMoA. The assay quantified amyloid‐β (Aβ)42/40, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 ( p ‐Tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Linear regression models estimated the association of plasma biomarkers from midlife, late‐life, and the change from midlife to late‐life with cortical thickness in late‐life. Interactions and effect modification by age were examined in exploratory analyses. Result The sample (Table 1) included 920 (60.7%) women, 387 (25.5%) Black participants, 513 (33.9%) participants with mild cognitive impairment, and 85 (5.6%) participants with dementia. The average age in late‐life was 76.8 (5.3 SD) years and the average cortical thickness was 2.27 (0.11 SD) millimeters. Cortical thickness was lower in individuals with adjudicated mild cognitive impairment or dementia compared to individuals without cognitive impairment (2.25 mm versus 2.29 mm, p <0.0001). In models adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, cardiovascular factors, and the presence of APOE ε4 alleles, higher midlife measures of p ‐Tau181 and increases from midlife to late‐life in NfL and GFAP were associated with lower cortical thickness in late‐life (Table 2). Concurrent measures of plasma biomarkers in late‐life were associated with lower cortical thickness (Table 2) and exhibited a stronger association among participants ≥75 years compared to <75 years (Table 3). Conclusion Plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration obtained in midlife and late‐life were associated with late‐life differences in cortical thickness. Additional longitudinal research is needed to determine whether plasma biomarkers predict cortical thinning over time and may serve as an early indicator of accelerated brain atrophy.