Nensa, Felix

Abstract Cancer outcomes vary widely between individual patients, each accumulating an irregular record of treatments, diagnoses, measurements, and complications. Current prognostic models reduce this complexity into a single snapshot, focus on narrow clinical settings, and rarely generalize across hospitals. Here we introduce Chronicle , an explainable transformer that learns from entire patient trajectories to predict diverse clinical outcomes throughout the disease course while capturing both short- and long-term temporal dependencies. Trained on 53.7 million longitudinal data points from 51,711 patients spanning 67 cancer types, Chronicle operates natively on irregular data without imputation and jointly predicts eight endpoints within a flexible framework adaptable to additional outcomes. Chronicle outperformed cross-sectional models for overall survival prediction (C-index 0.84 vs 0.76-0.79), stratified patients more accurately than established prognostic systems, including TNM stage, and predicted seven adverse event and transfusion endpoints (AUC 0.80-0.92). Applied without retraining to 69,341 patients in Germany, Switzerland, and the United States, Chronicle generalized across healthcare systems and improved further with local fine-tuning. Integrated explainability traced each risk update to patient-specific clinical factors, revealing distinct temporal persistence of prognostic information, with relevance half-lives ranging from weeks for therapies to nearly one year for baseline characteristics. These findings demonstrate that learning from hospital-wide patient trajectories enables interpretable and continuously updated predictions, providing a scalable framework to support individualized treatment decisions.

Abstract eSource – particularly EHR-to-EDC – is an emerging paradigm in clinical research that enables automated transfer of electronic health record (EHR) data into electronic data capture (EDC) systems, with the potential to reduce site burden, improve data quality and accelerate oncology clinical trial workflows. However, widespread implementation remains limited due to technical, regulatory and operational barriers. To address these challenges, the European Institute for Innovation through Health Data (i~HD) launched the eSource Scale-Up Task Force in 2024. This multi-stakeholder initiative brings together leading oncology centres and pharmaceutical sponsors to establish a consensus-driven roadmap for eSource adoption. Central to this effort are three foundational resources: readiness criteria for early adopters, a performance indicator framework for monitoring success and an operational playbook to guide implementation. This article provides a structured overview of the Task Force’s objectives, collaborative model and outputs, with specific attention to its focus on interoperability, regulatory alignment and real-world validation. While initially developed for oncology, the Task Force’s framework is applicable across therapeutic areas characterized by data-intensive workflows.