Jurmeister, Philipp

Abstract Cancer outcomes vary widely between individual patients, each accumulating an irregular record of treatments, diagnoses, measurements, and complications. Current prognostic models reduce this complexity into a single snapshot, focus on narrow clinical settings, and rarely generalize across hospitals. Here we introduce Chronicle , an explainable transformer that learns from entire patient trajectories to predict diverse clinical outcomes throughout the disease course while capturing both short- and long-term temporal dependencies. Trained on 53.7 million longitudinal data points from 51,711 patients spanning 67 cancer types, Chronicle operates natively on irregular data without imputation and jointly predicts eight endpoints within a flexible framework adaptable to additional outcomes. Chronicle outperformed cross-sectional models for overall survival prediction (C-index 0.84 vs 0.76-0.79), stratified patients more accurately than established prognostic systems, including TNM stage, and predicted seven adverse event and transfusion endpoints (AUC 0.80-0.92). Applied without retraining to 69,341 patients in Germany, Switzerland, and the United States, Chronicle generalized across healthcare systems and improved further with local fine-tuning. Integrated explainability traced each risk update to patient-specific clinical factors, revealing distinct temporal persistence of prognostic information, with relevance half-lives ranging from weeks for therapies to nearly one year for baseline characteristics. These findings demonstrate that learning from hospital-wide patient trajectories enables interpretable and continuously updated predictions, providing a scalable framework to support individualized treatment decisions.

Abstract Spatial transcriptomics links gene expression to tissue architecture, providing a mechanistic view of cellular organization. Yet existing datasets cover few donors and miss the complexity of human disease. Experimental costs remain prohibitive, and large-scale profiling is impractically slow for population-level studies. Accurate computational methods are urgently needed. Predicting gene expression from standard histology, however, remains an open problem, as current approaches transfer poorly to unseen cohorts and diseases. Here, we present Phoenix, a (latent) flow matching generative model that infers pan-cancer spatially resolved single-cell gene expression with high accuracy. Phoenix analyzes treatment response in silico: Applied to 763 head and neck cancer patients, it identified three new spatial biomarkers that we validated across two cancers (breast cancer, n = 84; ovarian cancer, n = 157) and treatment regimens (platinum, trastuzumab). Phoenix generalizes beyond carcinomas: In a large sarcoma cohort (802 tissue microarray cores), it accurately predicted cell-type-specific signatures in held-out samples and captured chemotherapy-induced immune remodeling. Phoenix also extends across species: In a mouse model, it accurately predicted the expression of pancreatic cancer lineage markers and the mutant mKras^G12D allele in silico. In total, we evaluated Phoenix on over 10,000 patients. Our results establish virtual spatial transcriptomics as a scalable framework for studying tissue organization, therapeutic response, and disease mechanisms.